The operationalization of the CSA approach at country level is outlined through describing the methodologies and data requirements for CSA. Furthermore, it looks closely at the EPIC-CSA approach. © FAO: http://www.fao.org

1. Informed decision making for CSA:
methodologies and data requirements
“Central Asia Climate Smart Agriculture Workshop”
Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan – 12-14 July 2016
Aslihan Arslan
Natural Resource Economist
Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)
Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN

2. 1. SUSTAINABLY
INCREASING PRODUCTIVITY
AND INCOME
2. ADAPTING AND BUILDING
RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
3. REDUCING AND/OR REMOVING
GREENHOUSE GASES EMISSIONS
WHERE POSSIBLE
How to operationalize the CSA
pillars at country level?

3. Too Many Objectives?
3
• Prioritizing the objectives of CSA depends on the
role of agriculture in economy and society.
• In low income, highly agriculture-dependent
economies, where CC impacts are estimated to be
significant and negative, CSA approach to
agricultural growth
– prioritizes food security
– incorporating necessary adaptation, and
– capturing potential mitigation co-benefits
• Evidence base essential for prioritization

4. From knowledge to action at country level
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1.Building an evidence base
2.Developing/enhancing capacity
3.Building enabling institutional and policy
frameworks
4.Facilitating policy coordination
5.Guiding investments & access to finance
The building blocks of the EPIC-CSA approach

5. Building an evidence base
1. Assessing the situation
– What are actual and predicted CC impacts at
sub-national levels?
– Which areas/farming systems and households
have highest exposure/sensitivity?
– Which agricultural practices/livelihood strategies
best respond to improve productivity and
resilience?
– What are the mitigation potentials?
1. Understand the enabling environment
— What are barriers to adoption?

6. Analysis of exposure and sensitivity to
climate risk in recent years
• Rainfall (1983-2015): Dekadal (10 days) rainfall data
from Africa Rainfall Climatology v2 (ARC2) of the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction
Center (NOAA-CPC)
• Temperature (1989-2013): Dekadal avg, min & max
temperatures of the European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
• Soil: Soil nutrient availability and soil pH levels from the
Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD)
Data Sources
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7. Zambia: Rainfall variability by agro-
ecological region (AER)

8. Zambia: change in onset of the rainy season
1983-2012

9. Data sources:
• Large scale nationally representative agricultural
household data (5,000-10,000 households)
• Institutional data at sub-national levels
• Combined with the above geo-referenced data
…to assess country priorities, e.g.:
• Conservation agriculture & agro-forestry
• Soil & water conservation
• Livelihood diversification: crops, livestock, income
• Safety nets and risk management
• The role of agriculture as a driver of deforestation
Analysis of impacts of potential CSA
interventions and barriers to adoption

10. The effects on productivity and its resilience
across agricultural practices
Higher Yields
Lower/Same
Yields
Reduced
probability of
yield loss
Average
climatic
conditions
Legume intercrop
Inorganic fertilizer
Improved seed
Crop rotation
Inorganic
fertilizer
Improved seed
Timely fertilizer
access
Delayed onset
of rainfall
Crop Rotation
Improved seed
Timely fertilizer
access
Inorganic
fertilizer
Legume
intercrop
Increased
seasonal
temperature
Legume intercrop
Timely fertilizer
access
Improved seed
Inorganic
fertilizer
Legume
intercrop
Timely fertilizer

11. The effects of climate shocks on diversification…
and its impacts for income & resilience

12. Analysis of mitigation
potentials
• Crops: Spatial models of
soil carbon under various
practices/systems
• Livestock: Identify
options to decrease
emissions
• Forestry: Identify main
drivers of deforestation &
options to decrease it

13. Barriers Enablers
Minimum soil
disturbance
Low income Extension information
Collective action
Rainfall variability
Legume
intercropping
Low income
Distance to district center
Extension information
Land Tenure
Collective action
Rainfall variability
Crop Rotation Low income Extension information
Agro-Forestry Distance to district center
Labor cost
Low income
Tenure security
Collective action
Drought proneness
Improved
seed
Uninsured risk
Distance to district center
Extension information
Inorganic
fertilizer
Uninsured risk
Lack of land tenure
Distance to district center
Extension information
Barriers to/enablers of Adoption: Zambia & Malawi

14. Cost-Benefit Analysis
• Need to analyze costs and benefits of
various options at various scales
• Detailed cost data is scarce but necessary
• Autonomous adoption can only be
expected if benefits>costs
• Interventions can be better targeted to
address the specific costs of adoption that
may prevent adoption

15. • Support to Min of Agriculture representatives
to attend UNFCCC negotiations
• Support to MSc and PhD students to work on
CSA
• Develop & deliver country-specific CSA
training material for agricultural extension
frontline staff
• Facilitate continuous learning by webinars,
online learning courses and exchange
programmes
Capacity development

16. • CSA is an integrated approach to address food
security, adaptation and mitigation
• Data & analysis needs are significant for proper
design & targeting
• …but data & tools are increasingly available to
assess three pillars for informed decision making
• Stakeholder involvement and capacity development
are key for successful implementation of CSA
approach
Summing up
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17. Thank you!
For more information,
please visit:
www.fao.org/climatechange
http://www.fao.org/climatechange/epic
or write to:
aslihan.arslan@fao.org