Lew Fulton, Co-director, STEPS Program University of California, Davis Presented at Transforming Transportation 2016

1. www.TransformingTransportation.org
New Initiatives for Clean Mobility:
Building a Sustainable Urban Future
Lew Fulton, Co-director, STEPS Program
University of California, Davis
Presented at Transforming Transportation 2016

2. Lew Fulton, Co-director, STEPS Program
University of California, Davis

3. • How can we create cities that look like
Copenhagen and not Phoenix?
• What are the environmental benefits of such
cities?
• What will this cost?
• What other barriers must be overcome to get
there?
6

4. • During 2013-2014, ITDP and UCD developed an
Urban Model and created a “High Shift” scenario,
toward much greater use of public and active
transport, for global cities
• In 2015, we added the “High Shift Cycling” Scenario
to create a more complete vision of urban low-
carbon futures
2

5. https://www.itdp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/A-
Global-High-Shift-Cycling-Scenario_-Nov-2015.pdf

6. • “Baseline” Scenario aligns with the IEA 4 degree scenario
• About 25% improvement in fuel economy to 2050
(slight additional improvements in High Shift scenario)
• No shift away from car growth trends
• Other modes static or slow growth
• “High Shift” Scenario:
• Projection of cities by size through 2050
• Increased rapid transit km per million population
• Encourage walking and cycling for short trips
• E-bikes expand in lieu of motor cycles and some cars
• Preserve total projected growth in personal mobility in
low and middle income (non-OECD) countries to 2050
• Cut car travel in cities by half by 2050 in High Shift
scenario compared to Baseline Scenario
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8. Cycling Study – the Baseline 2015 Mode Share

9. The High Shift Cycling (HSC) Scenario: rapid cycle and e-
bike mode share increases around the world
Average global cycling and ebike mode shares reach a combined 17% by 2030,
23% by 2050
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2015 2030 2050
Modeshare
BAU Cycling BAU E-bike HS Cycling HS E-bike

10. How do we get there? HSC Policy

11. High Shift scenarios – massive shift away from car-based
growth
Non-OECD travel results by mode, scenario and year

12. Costs – huge savings from HS scenarios just in terms of
lower vehicle, fuel and infrastructure costs

13. Some marginal economic costs and benefits
of greater cycling
Cost differences, High Shift Cycling v. “vanilla” High Shift in 2030

14. Financing - what to do?
• We need massive investments in public and active
transport modes, and strong O&M programs to
maintain good systems
• Yes we need financing systems, but we also need to
use policies to leverage the enormous annual
expenditures on transportation and channel these
toward sustainable modes and cities
• Vehicle taxes and feebate systems, road charge
systems are excellent places to start