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World FLNG Market
Forecast 2015-2021energy business insight
e: research@douglaswestwood.com t: +44 (0)203 4799 505
www.douglas-westwood.com
Aberdeen | Faversham | Houston | London | Singapore
© 2015
Douglas-Westwood
21
World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021
By purch
asing
this docum
ent, your organ
isation agree
s that it will not copy or allow
to be copied in part or whole
or otherwise circula
ted in any form any of the contents without the writte
n permission
of Douglas-W
estwo
od
Dehydration &Mercury Removal
Sulphur
Acid
Gas Removal
Acid
Gas
Treatment
Condensate
Liquefaction Plant Process Flow
Chapter 3 : Floating Liquefaction
Lique
factio
n involves gas treatment
,
liquefactio
n proce
sses and stora
ge of
LNG.
Prior
to liquefactio
n, feed gas is put
throu
gh a remo
val proce
ss of conta
mi-
nant and unwa
nted
subst
ances
.Lique
factio
n comp
resse
s gas into
1/600
th of its volum
e. The resulting
LNG
is store
d in tanks
befor
e being
offloa
ded to carrie
rs.
Figure 13: LNG Facility Liquefaction Process Flow
Source: Chiyo
da Corporatio
n
Natural Gas
LNG
CondensateStabilisation
Reception
LPG Removal
Liquefaction
LPG
A liquefactio
n proce
ss flow broad
ly involv
es
gas treatment
, liquefactio
n and the storage
of LNG.
The gas treatment
proce
ss includ
es acid gas
remo
val (also
know
n as gas swee
tening),
dehydratio
n and heavy
oil separ
ation.
Gas treatmentPrior
to the liquefactio
n of gas, feed gas
is put throu
gh a remo
val proce
ss of con-
tamin
ants and unwa
nted
subst
ances
. This
prote
cts the proce
ssing
equip
ment
and
achie
ves the specificatio
ns requi
red by the
LNG
market.
Acid
gas remo
val (gas swee
tenin
g) is
carrie
d out to remo
ve environme
ntal pol-
lutants from
the natur
al gas feed.
An amine
absor
ber is comm
only used
to absor
b these
acidic
gases
such
as hydro
gen sulph
ide and
carbo
n dioxide. Sulph
ur is further extra
cted
from
the hydro
gen sulph
ide throu
gh the use
of a sulph
ur remo
val unit.
Dehy
dration of the gas is further carrie
d
out using
an absor
bent.
Wate
r is remo
ved
from
the treated gas to avoid
the formation
of ice in the ensui
ng liquefactio
n proce
ss.
Heav
y oil separ
ation
involv
es the remo
val
of heavi
er hydro
carbo
n comp
onents that
might cause
plugg
ing in proce
ss equip
ment
in the cours
e of liquefactio
n. Efforts have
recen
tly been
made
on the recov
ery of
these
hydro
carbo
ns.
Liquefaction of treated gas
Major liquefactio
n proce
sses includ
e
the C3-M
R (Prop
ane Mixed Refrig
erant
Proce
ss), AP-X
, Cascade, Dual-
Mixed
Refrig
erant
Techn
ology
(‘DM
R’) and the
SMR
meth
ods. These meth
ods requi
re huge
energ
y input
to drive
the refrig
eratio
n com-
press
ors. Lique
factio
n of the treated gas is
further discussed in the follow
ing pages
.
Storage of treated gas
Once
the gas is treated and liquefied, it
is store
d in conta
inment systems and of-
floaded to LNG
carrie
rs for transporta
tion
to onshore or offshore re-gas facilities.
•	 Prospects
•	 Technologies
•	 Markets
© 2015
Douglas-Westwood
23
World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021
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asing
this docum
ent, your organ
isation agree
s that it will not copy or allow
to be copied in part or whole
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n permission
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estwo
od
Offloading to Regasification Vessels
Chapter 3 : Floating Liquefaction
Side-by-sid
e offloa
ding can be achie
ved by either
loading arms
or cryog
enic hoses which
are positioned
on the side of the ship.
This offloa
ding has been
used
for crude
and LPG for over
30 years
and has been
prove
n between two LNG
carrie
rs.
A moor
ed side by side operation
is an impo
rtant
optio
n for offloa
ding LNG
FPSO
s. The most
critical
issues durin
g the proce
ss are the loads
in the moor
-
ing lines between the two vesse
ls and in the floating
fende
rs. These are deter
mined by wave
and wind
conditions
as well as the loads
on the two vesse
ls.
Even
in head
wave
s the two vesse
ls are likely
to be
out of phase
(jack
knifin
g) which
cause
s tensio
n on
the moor
ing cable
s. Therefore
side by side moor
ing
can only really
be used
in benig
n environme
nts.
MET
HOD
S - Side-
by-Si
de Trans
fer
Loading arms
are altern
atives
to the direct hose
hookups for use on larger vesse
ls. They
are able to
execute transfers at highe
r loading rates
and pres-
sure.
Many
FLNG
concepts includ
e loading arms
which
are positioned
on the side of the ship or at
the bow.
They
can handle both
liquid
s and gases
in a
range
of temp
eratu
res. The system has to be drained
befor
e break
ing off connection.
Many
comp
anies
such
as FMC, Aker
Solutions and
SBM
offer
loading arms
for side by side, tande
m or
ship to shore
offloa
ding.
Shell’
s Prelu
de FLNG
proje
ct
will deplo
y the use of FMC
Techn
ologies’ offshore
loading arm systems.
Marin
e Loading Arms
are made
of sever
al comp
o-
nents
includ
ing the base
riser,
inboa
rd arm and the
outbo
ard arm.
EQU
IPME
NT - Load
ing Arm
s
Tande
m offloa
ding can involv
e aerial cryog
enic hoses,
floating cryog
enic hoses or loading arms. An aerial
arran
geme
nt involv
es the cryog
enic hose
being
at-
tache
d to the bow
manifold of the LNG
carrie
r. A
typica
l floating arran
geme
nt is wher
e the cryog
enic
hose
is attached to the mid ship manifold of the
LNG
carrie
r, and floate
d in the sea between the two
vesse
ls.
In environme
nts wher
e side by side is not possible,
tande
m offloa
ding becomes the most
impo
rtant
form
of offloa
ding.
Due to the relatively short
distan
ce between the
bow
and stern
of the two vesse
ls and wave
and
wind
conditions
, this is a highly
comp
lex operation.
In some
conditions
, differ
ences in drafts
can lead to
differ
ences in the headings of the vesse
l, which
adds
anoth
er dimension
of comp
lexity
to the operation.
MET
HOD
S - Tand
em Offlo
ading Cryogenic
hoses are flexib
le therm
ally isolat
ed hoses
that have
the ability
to transfer both
LNG
at -162°
C
and gas between FLNG
vesse
ls and LNG
carrie
rs.
Hose
s can be used
in environme
nts wher
e it may
be difficu
lt to use loading arms, such
as hostile sea
conditions
wher
e close
conta
ct between vesse
ls is
too dangerous
.
The first transfer of LNG
between two vesse
ls using
cryog
enic hoses took
place
at the Teess
ide GasPort
(UK)
in 2007.
EQU
IPME
NT - Cryo
genic
Hose
s
LNG
transfer has to be perfo
rmed
under most
weather conditions
at the offshore location. In open
sea, this is a challe
nging
operation
and becomes even
more
difficu
lt in harsh
environme
nts. Specialised
equip
ment
which
provi
des safe
and efficie
nt offloa
ding is very impo
rtant
to operators.
© 2015
Douglas-Westwood
54
World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021
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asing
this docum
ent, your organ
isation agree
s that it will not copy or allow
to be copied in part or whole
or otherwise circula
ted in any form any of the contents without the writte
n permission
of Douglas-W
estwo
od
Australasia
Chapter 7 : Market Forecast
All of Austr
alia’s
FLNG
expendi-
ture will be on its export facilit
ies.
Expenditure will total
$
bn over
2015-2021
.
Austr
alasia
will see the instal
lation
of
Prelu
de FLNG
by 2017.
Average Cape
x per annum between
2015
and 2021:$ bn Lique
factio
n.
Austr
alasia
repre
sents
% of globa
l
forec
ast expenditure and
% of globa
l
liquefactio
n Cape
x.
Figure
42: Capex on FLNG
Facilit
ies in Australasia
by Type 2014
-2021
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Expe
nditu
re($billion)
Import
Lique
factio
n
Figure
43: Capex on FLNG
Liquefaction Vessels by Country of Servic
e 2014
-2021
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Expe
nditu
re($billion)
Papua New
GuineaAustr
alia
Austr
alasia
is a key region for FLNG
liquef
ac-
tion devel
opers
as it benefits from
unconven-
tional gas reserves, such as coal bed methane.
All floatin
g LNG
expenditure will be in
export devel
opme
nt.
LiquefactionAustr
alasia
will repre
sent
% of globa
l
floatin
g LNG
export Cape
x and
% of all
globa
l FLNG
Cape
x between 2015-2021
,
an investment of $
bn. Most
of these
devel
opme
nts will come
from
Austr
alia; the
rest from
activity in Papua
New
Guine
a. The
topog
raphy
of PNG
reduc
es the economic
viability of building onsho
re and has encour-
aged
devel
opme
nt of projects such as Talis-
man’s
Pandora FLNG
and Liquid
Niugini Gas’
Gulf FLNG
projects.
The region is anticipating the arriva
l of Shell’s
Prelu
de FLNG
devel
opme
nt, due onstream
in 2017. The facility will have
a capac
ity of
mmtp
a and is currently being
built at
Geoje Shipyard by the Techn
ip-Sam
sung
conso
rtium
. The succe
ss of this landm
ark
project could
lead to significant increa
ses in
globa
l Cape
x as financ
iers and opera
tors gain
confid
ence
in the techn
ology. Specifically,
Woodside
has mentioned
makin
g its FID on
the Brow
se FLNG
project post the succe
ss-
ful delive
ry of Prelud
e.
ExxonMob
il and BHP Billito
n have
agree
d to
devel
op the Scarb
orough gas field,
km
offsho
re West
ern Austr
alia, using
a FLNG
vesse
l that will have
proce
ssing
capac
ity of
appro
ximat
ely mmtp
a. Othe
r key FLNG
projects in Austr
alia includ
e Brow
se FLNG
and Echuca Shoals FLNG
.
$ millio
n
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Lique
factio
nImpor
t
0
Total
$ millio
n
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Austr
alia
P. N. Guine
a
03
Total
Table
18: Capex on FLNG
Facilit
ies in Australasia
by Type 2014
-2021
Table
19: Capex on FLNG
Facilit
ies in Australasia
by Country of Servic
e 2014
-2021
© 2015
Douglas-Westwood
56
World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021
By purch
asing
this docum
ent, your organ
isation agree
s that it will not copy or allow
to be copied in part or whole
or otherwise circula
ted in any form any of the contents without the writte
n permission
of Douglas-W
estwo
od
Latin America
Chapter 7 : Market Forecast
Expenditure for both
import ( %)
and liquefactio
n ( %) infras
tructure to
total
$ bn over
2015-2021
.
There are many
import proje
cts
expected.
Latin
America will also
receive the world
’s first floating LNG
liquefactio
n, regas
ificati
on and stora
ge
unit (FLSR
U).
Average Cape
x per annum between
2015
and 2021:
$
m Lique
factio
n;
$
m Impo
rt.
Latin
America totals
% of globa
l fore-
cast expenditure – % of liquefactio
n
and
% of import Cape
x.
Figure
45: Capex on FLNG
Facilit
ies in Latin
America by Type 2014
-2021
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Expe
nditu
re($billion)
Import
Lique
factio
n
Latin
America will see an investmen
t of
$ bn over
2015-2021
, % of globa
l spend
on floating LNG
proje
cts.
% of the region’s
spend
is on liquefactio
n facilities while
%
is on impo
rt infras
tructure.
Import
The region is home
to five operational
floating units,
all of which
are located in
Argentina
and Brazil. Golar LNG
supplied
the FSRU
s at Pecém
Terminal (Gola
r Spirit
FSRU) and Guan
abara
Bay phase
1 (Gola
r
Winte
r FSRU); Excelerate
is respo
nsible
for Guan
abara
Bay (Expe
rience
FSRU),
Bahía
Blanc
a GasPort, and the Puert
o
Escob
ar LNG
proje
cts. Combined
, these
proje
cts provi
de Argentina
and Brazil with
mmtp
a of floating impo
rt capac
ity. Ex-
perience FSRU, the world
’s largest FSRU
, has
all outpu
t capac
ity of 1bcf/d and replaced
Golar
Winte
r. Golar
Winte
r is now
deplo
yed
to Brazil’s terminal in Bahía
de Todos os
Santo
s, Salvador.
Over
the forec
ast perio
d, $ bn in
Cape
x is expected on floating impo
rt and
regas
ification facilities. Proje
cts curre
ntly
under const
ructio
n includ
e Chile
’s Mejillones
FSRU
(Gola
r NB 13 FSRU), Argentina’s GNL
Puert
o Cuatreros
, Uruguay’s
GNL
Del Plata
FSRU
and Puert
o Rico’s Aguir
re GasPort.
Othe
r key proje
cts includ
e Jamai
ca’s Port
Esquivel FSRU, Chile
’s Quint
ero Bay FSRU
and
Dom
inican
Repu
blic’s
Marcoris FSRU.
Liquefaction
Floating liquefactio
n facilities are expected
to total
$ bn for the perio
d 2015-2021
,
on the vesse
l Colom
bia FLSRU
, the world
’s
first floating LNG
liquefactio
n, regas
ifica-
tion and storage unit. Expected onstr
eam
in the earlie
r part of the forec
ast, it will be
situat
ed in the Colombian Carib
bean
coast
and will have
storage capac
ity of
m
3
of LNG. The FLRSU has regas
ification
facilities but its prima
ry function is to liquefy
and expo
rt LNG
produced
from
nearb
y
onshore fields.
Previously, Petro
bras’
ultra-
deepwater
pre-salt fields
would have
seen
one of the
region’s first FLNG
liquefactio
n vesse
ls
come
onstr
eam.
However,
plans
for this
unit have
been
put on hold
in favou
r of
pipelines. Falling gas prices in the region
exace
rbate
d by the Unite
d States’ expected
expo
rts of shale
gas outpu
ts will threa
ten
Petro
bras’
plans
for a floating liquefactio
n
unit. Petro
bras has already shelved its plans
for an FLNG
vesse
l in the Santo
s Basin.
$ millio
n
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Lique
factio
n
0
Impor
t
Total
Table
21: Capex on FLNG
Facilit
ies in Latin
America by Type 2014
-2021
Import
Lique
factio
n
© 2015
Douglas-Westwood
13
World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021
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asing
this docum
ent, your organ
isation agree
s that it will not copy or allow
to be copied in part or whole
or otherwise circula
ted in any form any of the contents without the writte
n permission
of Douglas-W
estwo
od
Floating Liquefaction – Onshore Cost Comparison
Chapter 2 : Why Floating LNG?
Floating liquefactio
n remo
ves high cost
variab
les such
as pipelines,
lowering
overa
ll Cape
x.
Onsh
ore terminals have
seen
EPC
costs
excee
d $1,50
0 per tpa. LNG
FPSO
s could
offer
an estim
ated Cape
x
of $800
per tpa.
Figure
5: Onsho
re vs. Offsho
re Liquef
action
Indica
tive Termin
al Total Costs
0
500
1,000
1,500
Onsh
ore
Offsh
ore
Well
Installation
sLNG
FPSO
Production Platfo
rmGas Compression system
Pipeli
ne
Onsh
ore LNG
Plant
Figure
6: Onshore vs. Offshore Liquefaction Terminal Capex
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
2025
Onshore
Offshore FloatingLinear (Onshore)
Onshore
terminal costs
The cost of onshore LNG
terminals has
been
consistently increasing
over
the past
15 years
with no indica
tion of declin
e; some
onshore LNG
facilities have
seen
EPC costs
as high as $1,50
0 per tonne
per annum.
Othe
r costs, apart
from
the Cape
x assoc
i-
ated with the terminal const
ructio
n and
design, are accum
ulated durin
g the develop-
ment
of an onshore LNG
proje
ct.Assuming
the field is located offshore, other
infras
tructure is also requi
red in order
to extra
ct the gas, includ
ing production
platfo
rms, subse
a wells
and subse
a pipelines
from
the production platfo
rm to the on-
shore
terminal.
Floating terminal costs
A floating offshore LNG
terminal elimin
ates
the need
for costly
production platfo
rms
and expo
rt pipelines, lowering overa
ll
Cape
x for the proje
ct. The figure
show
s
that the pipeline to shore
can be more
than
10% of proje
ct costs
(or $200
per mmtp
a)
in some
cases
.
Furth
ermo
re, LNG
FPSO
s can be con-
structed in the contr
olled
environme
nt of
a shipyard unlike
onshore terminals,
which
are typica
lly const
ructe
d in-situ ‘stick-build
’
or transporte
d to site in modu
lar form.
FLNG
developer
s are aimin
g for costs
be-
tween $700
and $900
per tonne
of annual
liquefactio
n capac
ity depending
on the feed
gas specificatio
ns and other
proje
ct specific
costs. “FLN
G is a reaso
nably
cheap
er solu-
tion, but proje
ct financ
ing does
not
allow
this at the mom
ent as lending
mone
y for the proje
ct is risky
with-
out any FLNG
vesse
ls in operation.
Curre
ntly, all FLNG
vesse
ls are being
built using
the Oper
ators’ mone
y.”
Major FLNG
EPC contr
actor
Figure
7: LNG Capital Costs
Source
: Oil & Gas Journa
l
$billi
on
Onsh
ore
Float
ing Optio
n(1 x 4 mmt
pa) Float
ing Optio
n(2 x 2 mmt
pa)
Produ
ction
Facilit
ies
1.9
1.9
1.9
FPSO
1.2
-
-
Expor
t Pipelin
e
2.5
-
-
LNG
Plant
5.5
5.8
6.6
Total
11.1
7.7
8.5
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 34World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021
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Shipyard Review
Chapter 5 : FLNG Supply Chain
The key shipyards involved in LNG projects are located in South Korea, Japan and Singapore. South Korean yards lead in the areas of newbuild floating regasification and newbuild floating liquefaction vessel construction. To date, only
DSME and Samsung Heavy Industries have sanctioned projects for LNG FPSOs, positioning them as market leaders in floating liquefaction. Hyundai Heavy Industries and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries are poised to begin construction on
floating liquefaction vessels. Dubai Drydocks have involved themselves in the construction of the pioneer LNG FPSOs through the construction of Prelude FLNG’s turret. We can expect shipyards with construction expertise in floating
regasification vessels, FPSOs, and LNG carriers, to have the necessary qualifications and facilities to construct FLNG vessels.
Projects indicated refer to those already sanctioned or expressed interest with capability to execute.
Legend
FPSO
LNG Carriers
Newbuild Floating Regasification
Conversion Floating Regasification
Newbuild Floating Liquefaction
Annual Carrier Capacity (mmpta)3
Italcantieri Yard
3
Dubai Drydocks
Keppel Shipyard
Izar Sestao Yard
2
Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding
2
Kvaerner Masa-Yards
3
IHI Corporation
Imabari Shipbuilding
Kawasaki Heavy Industries
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries MHI
Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding
Universal Shipbuilding Corporation
3
4
2
4
2
1
DSME
Hanjin Heavy Industries
Hyundai Heavy Industries HHI
Samsung Heavy Industries SHI
STX Offshore & Shipbuilding
2
2
13
11
Excelerate Energy
Floating LNG industry set for land-
mark project start-ups and further
new wave of growth
Despite a current pause in commitments to new
projects, the capital expenditure (Capex) for FLNG
vessels is expected to amount to $35.5bn over
2015-2021. Spending on FSRUs will total $22.8bn
over the same period, taking the combined expendi-
ture for the Floating LNG market to $58.3bn.
There is a huge interest in the pioneering projects
that will drive market spend over the coming years.
Future commitments by operators to the FLNG
market hinges on the success of these pioneering
projects.
The delivery of Petronas’ PFLNG 1, also known as
the PFLNG SATU, will be the world’s first FLNG
vessel to start operations on its completion by the
end of 2016. This will be followed by Shell’s Prelude
FLNG vessel, a significantly larger project and one
that is likely to shape future FLNG developments.
Construction of the 488 metres long facility started
in 2012 (the unit is being built by Samsung in Korea)
and is expected to start up by 2017.
Following these projects is a second wave of new
projects that are yet to be sanctioned but are ex-
pected to drive a growth in expenditure from 2019
onwards. This includes major projects in frontier
regions such as East Africa.
DW anticipates more floating regasification units
are to be sanctioned, with Asia and Latin America
being the dominant regions. Upcoming projects are
visible in Indonesia, China, Pakistan, India, Vietnam,
Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, mostly led by National Oil
Companies. Latin America will see deployments of
floating regas units in Chile and Puerto Rico.
The World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 fore-
casts activity through to 2021 and contains analysis
of:
•	 Market Drivers and Trends – including the
monetisation of stranded gas reserves, security
of supply, onshore terminal costs, environmental
solutions and increasing long-term gas demand.
•	 The FLNG Supply Chain – operators, FLNG
leasing, EPC contractors, vessel yards, topside
sub-contractors and financing analysis.
•	 FLNG Import and Export Capacity – prospec-
tive installations 2015-2021, along with DW’s
forecast for the required Capex to bring this
capacity online. This includes construction of
base-load FLNG liquefaction and import (regasi-
fication) vessels.
•	 Capex Breakdowns – expenditure for liquefac-
tion and regasification vessels segmented by
component looking at topsides, hull & contain-
ment systems and mooring & transfer systems.
And by service, including technology licencing,
FEED, detailed design engineering, construction
engineering, installation, hook-up & commission-
ing and construction of hull & topsides.
•	 Regional analysis – Africa, Asia, Australasia, East-
ern Europe & FSU, Latin America, Middle East,
North America and Western Europe.
World FLNG Market
Forecast 2015-2021energy business insight
e: research@douglaswestwood.com t: +44 (0)203 4799 505
www.douglas-westwood.com
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Why purchase the FLNG Market
Forecast?
Our market forecasting is trusted by sector players
worldwide, with clients including the world’s top-10
oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services com-
panies and top-10 private equity firms. Our proven
process includes:
•	 Unique and proprietary data – updated year-
round from published sources and insight gained
from industry consultation.
•	 Methodology – the report uses research from
DW’s proprietary ‘World LNG Projects Data-
base’, an in-house information system exclusive
to DW. Our global analyst team is involved in
the gathering and analysis of FLNG market data
through primary research and professional net-
works. A project-by-project review of develop-
ment prospects drives a data-rich market model
and forecast; with the timing of expenditure
phased to reflect the commercial structures of
likely projects.
•	 Market forecasts – comprehensive examina-
tion, analysis and 14-year coverage of FLNG
expenditure.
•	 Concise report layout – consistent with DW’s
commitment to delivering value for our clients,
all our market forecasts have a concise layout
consisting of industry background and supporting
materials condensed to enable quick review with
‘speed-read’ summaries of key points through-
out.
•	 An essential report – for engineering houses,
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operators, shipbuilders, oil & gas operators,
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better understand where and when to make
investment decisions.
More about Douglas-Westwood’s
Capabilities in the FLNG Sector
DW’s FLNG research and consulting expertise
is highly-regarded and used by the leading lease
contractors, EPC firms and OEMs. We are
regularly invited to present the results of our
work at industry conferences and private client
events worldwide.
ISBN 978-1-910045-20-6"The report was key to letting us know when
equipment will be needed in the future"
- Engineering Company
"The extended regional forecast was exactly
what we needed"
- Services Company
2015 World FLNG Market Forecast
Prospects, Technologies, World Markets
2015-2021
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 2World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021
By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood
Contents
Table of Contents
1 Summary and Conclusions.......................................7
Summary.......................................................................................................................................... 8
Conclusions..................................................................................................................................... 9
2 Why Floating LNG?................................................ 10
Floating Liquefaction – Market Drivers...................................................................................11
Onshore & FLNG Comparison & Definitions........................................................................12
Floating Liquefaction – Onshore Cost Comparison.............................................................13
The History of Floating LNG.....................................................................................................14
Floating Regasification – Market Drivers................................................................................15
3 Floating Liquefaction............................................... 16
Hulls................................................................................................................................................17
LNG FPSO.....................................................................................................................................18
Containment Systems.................................................................................................................19
LNG FPSO Process Diagram.....................................................................................................20
Liquefaction Plant Process Flow...............................................................................................21
Liquefaction Technology.............................................................................................................22
Offloading to Regasification Vessels.........................................................................................23
4 Floating Regasification............................................ 24
FSRU & Regasification Vessels...................................................................................................25
Topsides & Regasification Process............................................................................................26
Destination LNG Offloading......................................................................................................27
5 FLNG Supply Chain................................................ 28
LNG FPSO Supply Chain: Pre-FEED/FEED.............................................................................29
LNG FPSO Supply Chain: EPC..................................................................................................30
Floating LNG Regasification Supply Chain..............................................................................31
Financing........................................................................................................................................32
LNG Business Model...................................................................................................................33
Shipyard Review...........................................................................................................................34
Leasing Contractors – Floating Liquefaction..........................................................................35
Leasing Contractors – Floating Regasification.......................................................................36
6 FLNG Projects......................................................... 37
Oil Price Impact on FLNG Projects.........................................................................................38
Floating Regasification.................................................................................................................39
Floating Liquefaction Projects...................................................................................................40
Pioneer FLNG Projects...............................................................................................................41
7 Market Forecast....................................................... 42
Methodology.................................................................................................................................43
8 Appendix................................................................... 60
Conversion Tables.......................................................................................................................61
Prospective Floating Regasification Vessels ...........................................................................62
Data and Text Conventions.......................................................................................................64
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 3World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021
By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood
Contents
Figures
Figure 1: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Region 2014-2020........................................................8
Figure 2: Percentage Regional Comparison on FLNG 2014-2020.........................................................8
Figure 3: Top 10 countries with Proven Natural Gas Reserves (as at end 2013).......................11
Figure 4: Process Diagram of the LNG chain.................................................................................................12
Figure 5: Onshore vs. Offshore Liquefaction Indicative Terminal Total Costs...............................13
Figure 6: Onshore vs. Offshore Liquefaction Terminal Capex..............................................................13
Figure 7: LNG Capital Costs...................................................................................................................................13
Figure 8: History of Floating LNG........................................................................................................................14
Figure 9: Overview of Operational and Future LNG Facilities..............................................................14
Figure 10: Gas Consumption by Region 2005-2030..................................................................................15
Figure 11: LNG FPSO Layout.................................................................................................................................18
Figure 12: Sloshing Inside a Tank...........................................................................................................................19
Figure 13: LNG Facility Liquefaction Process Flow.....................................................................................21
Figure 14: Single Train Capacity for Several Liquefaction Process.......................................................22
Figure 15: FSRU Topside Process ........................................................................................................................26
Figure 16: Submerged Combustion Vaporiser (Closed Loop)..............................................................26
Figure 17: Schematic of the Sea Water Vaporiser (Open-loop)..........................................................26
Figure 18: LNG FPSO Pre-FEED & FEED Supply Chain...........................................................................29
Figure 19: LNG FPSO EPC Supply Chain........................................................................................................30
Figure 20: Floating LNG Regasification Supply Chain................................................................................31
Figure 21: Typical Finance Project Structure...................................................................................................32
Figure 22: LNG FPSO Simplified Business Model .......................................................................................33
Figure 23: Henry Hub Gas, West Texas Intermediate FOB & Europe Brent Spot Prices.......38
Figure 24: Global Floating Regasification Fleet...............................................................................................39
Figure 25: Focus areas for FLNG export project development...........................................................40
Figure 26: Shell Prelude FLNG...............................................................................................................................41
Figure 27: Petronas PFLNG 1.................................................................................................................................41
Figure 28: Columbia FLSRU....................................................................................................................................41
Figure 29: Components of an FLNG vessel....................................................................................................44
Figure 30: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Region 2008-2021.........................................45
Figure 31: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Component 2008-2021..............................46
Figure 32: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Service 2008-2021.........................................46
Figure 33: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Region 2008-2021.....................................................47
Figure 34: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Component 2008-2021.........................................48
Figure 35: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Service 2008-2021....................................................48
Figure 36: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Component 2008-2021.......................................49
Figure 37: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Service 2008-2021..................................................49
Figure 38: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Region 2008-2021...................................................50
Figure 39: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Type 2014-2021.......................................................51
Figure 40: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Africa by Type 2014-2021....................................................52
Figure 41: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Asia by Type 2014-2021.......................................................53
Figure 42: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Australasia by Type 2014-2021.........................................54
Figure 43: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Country of Service 2014-2021................54
Figure 44: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Eastern Europe & FSU by Type 2014-2021................55
Figure 45: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Latin America by Type 2014-2021..................................56
Figure 46: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Middle East by Type 2014-2021........................................57
Figure 47: Capex on FLNG Facilities in North America by Type 2014-2021...............................58
Figure 48: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Western Europe by Type 2014-2021.............................59
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 4World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021
By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood
Contents
Tables
Table 1: Conventional FPSO Components......................................................................................................18
Table 2: Typical Natural Gas Composition.......................................................................................................20
Table 3: Floating Liquefaction Lease Contractors and Operators.......................................................35
Table 4: Floating LNG Projects by Status and Year.....................................................................................40
Table 5: Prelude, PFLNG and FLSRU Vessel Details...................................................................................41
Table 6: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Region 2014-2021..............................................45
Table 7: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Component 2014-2021..................................46
Table 8: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Service 2014-2021.............................................46
Table 9: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Region 2014-2021.........................................................47
Table 10: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Component 2014-2021...........................................48
Table 11: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Service 2014-2021......................................................48
Table 12: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Component 2014-2021.........................................49
Table 13: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Service 2014-2021....................................................49
Table 14: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Region 2014-2021.....................................................50
Table 15: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Type 2014-2021.........................................................51
Table 16: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Africa by Type 2014-2021......................................................52
Table 17: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Asia by Type 2014-2021.........................................................53
Table 18: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Australasia by Type 2014-2021...........................................54
Table 19: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Australasia by Country of Service 2014-2021.............54
Table 20: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Eastern Europe & FSU by Type 2014-2021..................55
Table 21: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Latin America by Type 2014-2021....................................56
Table 22: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Middle East by Type 2014-2021.........................................57
Table 23: Capex on FLNG Facilities in North America by Type 2014-2021.................................58
Table 24: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Western Europe by Type 2014-2021..............................59
Table 25: Conversion Table......................................................................................................................................61
Table 26: Prospective Floating Regasification Vessels.................................................................................62
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 5World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021
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© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 6World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021
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World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 Leaflet + Contents

  • 1. World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021energy business insight e: research@douglaswestwood.com t: +44 (0)203 4799 505 www.douglas-westwood.com Aberdeen | Faversham | Houston | London | Singapore © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 21 World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 By purch asing this docum ent, your organ isation agree s that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circula ted in any form any of the contents without the writte n permission of Douglas-W estwo od Dehydration &Mercury Removal Sulphur Acid Gas Removal Acid Gas Treatment Condensate Liquefaction Plant Process Flow Chapter 3 : Floating Liquefaction Lique factio n involves gas treatment , liquefactio n proce sses and stora ge of LNG. Prior to liquefactio n, feed gas is put throu gh a remo val proce ss of conta mi- nant and unwa nted subst ances .Lique factio n comp resse s gas into 1/600 th of its volum e. The resulting LNG is store d in tanks befor e being offloa ded to carrie rs. Figure 13: LNG Facility Liquefaction Process Flow Source: Chiyo da Corporatio n Natural Gas LNG CondensateStabilisation Reception LPG Removal Liquefaction LPG A liquefactio n proce ss flow broad ly involv es gas treatment , liquefactio n and the storage of LNG. The gas treatment proce ss includ es acid gas remo val (also know n as gas swee tening), dehydratio n and heavy oil separ ation. Gas treatmentPrior to the liquefactio n of gas, feed gas is put throu gh a remo val proce ss of con- tamin ants and unwa nted subst ances . This prote cts the proce ssing equip ment and achie ves the specificatio ns requi red by the LNG market. Acid gas remo val (gas swee tenin g) is carrie d out to remo ve environme ntal pol- lutants from the natur al gas feed. An amine absor ber is comm only used to absor b these acidic gases such as hydro gen sulph ide and carbo n dioxide. Sulph ur is further extra cted from the hydro gen sulph ide throu gh the use of a sulph ur remo val unit. Dehy dration of the gas is further carrie d out using an absor bent. Wate r is remo ved from the treated gas to avoid the formation of ice in the ensui ng liquefactio n proce ss. Heav y oil separ ation involv es the remo val of heavi er hydro carbo n comp onents that might cause plugg ing in proce ss equip ment in the cours e of liquefactio n. Efforts have recen tly been made on the recov ery of these hydro carbo ns. Liquefaction of treated gas Major liquefactio n proce sses includ e the C3-M R (Prop ane Mixed Refrig erant Proce ss), AP-X , Cascade, Dual- Mixed Refrig erant Techn ology (‘DM R’) and the SMR meth ods. These meth ods requi re huge energ y input to drive the refrig eratio n com- press ors. Lique factio n of the treated gas is further discussed in the follow ing pages . Storage of treated gas Once the gas is treated and liquefied, it is store d in conta inment systems and of- floaded to LNG carrie rs for transporta tion to onshore or offshore re-gas facilities. • Prospects • Technologies • Markets © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 23 World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 By purch asing this docum ent, your organ isation agree s that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circula ted in any form any of the contents without the writte n permission of Douglas-W estwo od Offloading to Regasification Vessels Chapter 3 : Floating Liquefaction Side-by-sid e offloa ding can be achie ved by either loading arms or cryog enic hoses which are positioned on the side of the ship. This offloa ding has been used for crude and LPG for over 30 years and has been prove n between two LNG carrie rs. A moor ed side by side operation is an impo rtant optio n for offloa ding LNG FPSO s. The most critical issues durin g the proce ss are the loads in the moor - ing lines between the two vesse ls and in the floating fende rs. These are deter mined by wave and wind conditions as well as the loads on the two vesse ls. Even in head wave s the two vesse ls are likely to be out of phase (jack knifin g) which cause s tensio n on the moor ing cable s. Therefore side by side moor ing can only really be used in benig n environme nts. MET HOD S - Side- by-Si de Trans fer Loading arms are altern atives to the direct hose hookups for use on larger vesse ls. They are able to execute transfers at highe r loading rates and pres- sure. Many FLNG concepts includ e loading arms which are positioned on the side of the ship or at the bow. They can handle both liquid s and gases in a range of temp eratu res. The system has to be drained befor e break ing off connection. Many comp anies such as FMC, Aker Solutions and SBM offer loading arms for side by side, tande m or ship to shore offloa ding. Shell’ s Prelu de FLNG proje ct will deplo y the use of FMC Techn ologies’ offshore loading arm systems. Marin e Loading Arms are made of sever al comp o- nents includ ing the base riser, inboa rd arm and the outbo ard arm. EQU IPME NT - Load ing Arm s Tande m offloa ding can involv e aerial cryog enic hoses, floating cryog enic hoses or loading arms. An aerial arran geme nt involv es the cryog enic hose being at- tache d to the bow manifold of the LNG carrie r. A typica l floating arran geme nt is wher e the cryog enic hose is attached to the mid ship manifold of the LNG carrie r, and floate d in the sea between the two vesse ls. In environme nts wher e side by side is not possible, tande m offloa ding becomes the most impo rtant form of offloa ding. Due to the relatively short distan ce between the bow and stern of the two vesse ls and wave and wind conditions , this is a highly comp lex operation. In some conditions , differ ences in drafts can lead to differ ences in the headings of the vesse l, which adds anoth er dimension of comp lexity to the operation. MET HOD S - Tand em Offlo ading Cryogenic hoses are flexib le therm ally isolat ed hoses that have the ability to transfer both LNG at -162° C and gas between FLNG vesse ls and LNG carrie rs. Hose s can be used in environme nts wher e it may be difficu lt to use loading arms, such as hostile sea conditions wher e close conta ct between vesse ls is too dangerous . The first transfer of LNG between two vesse ls using cryog enic hoses took place at the Teess ide GasPort (UK) in 2007. EQU IPME NT - Cryo genic Hose s LNG transfer has to be perfo rmed under most weather conditions at the offshore location. In open sea, this is a challe nging operation and becomes even more difficu lt in harsh environme nts. Specialised equip ment which provi des safe and efficie nt offloa ding is very impo rtant to operators. © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 54 World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 By purch asing this docum ent, your organ isation agree s that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circula ted in any form any of the contents without the writte n permission of Douglas-W estwo od Australasia Chapter 7 : Market Forecast All of Austr alia’s FLNG expendi- ture will be on its export facilit ies. Expenditure will total $ bn over 2015-2021 . Austr alasia will see the instal lation of Prelu de FLNG by 2017. Average Cape x per annum between 2015 and 2021:$ bn Lique factio n. Austr alasia repre sents % of globa l forec ast expenditure and % of globa l liquefactio n Cape x. Figure 42: Capex on FLNG Facilit ies in Australasia by Type 2014 -2021 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Expe nditu re($billion) Import Lique factio n Figure 43: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Country of Servic e 2014 -2021 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Expe nditu re($billion) Papua New GuineaAustr alia Austr alasia is a key region for FLNG liquef ac- tion devel opers as it benefits from unconven- tional gas reserves, such as coal bed methane. All floatin g LNG expenditure will be in export devel opme nt. LiquefactionAustr alasia will repre sent % of globa l floatin g LNG export Cape x and % of all globa l FLNG Cape x between 2015-2021 , an investment of $ bn. Most of these devel opme nts will come from Austr alia; the rest from activity in Papua New Guine a. The topog raphy of PNG reduc es the economic viability of building onsho re and has encour- aged devel opme nt of projects such as Talis- man’s Pandora FLNG and Liquid Niugini Gas’ Gulf FLNG projects. The region is anticipating the arriva l of Shell’s Prelu de FLNG devel opme nt, due onstream in 2017. The facility will have a capac ity of mmtp a and is currently being built at Geoje Shipyard by the Techn ip-Sam sung conso rtium . The succe ss of this landm ark project could lead to significant increa ses in globa l Cape x as financ iers and opera tors gain confid ence in the techn ology. Specifically, Woodside has mentioned makin g its FID on the Brow se FLNG project post the succe ss- ful delive ry of Prelud e. ExxonMob il and BHP Billito n have agree d to devel op the Scarb orough gas field, km offsho re West ern Austr alia, using a FLNG vesse l that will have proce ssing capac ity of appro ximat ely mmtp a. Othe r key FLNG projects in Austr alia includ e Brow se FLNG and Echuca Shoals FLNG . $ millio n 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Lique factio nImpor t 0 Total $ millio n 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Austr alia P. N. Guine a 03 Total Table 18: Capex on FLNG Facilit ies in Australasia by Type 2014 -2021 Table 19: Capex on FLNG Facilit ies in Australasia by Country of Servic e 2014 -2021 © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 56 World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 By purch asing this docum ent, your organ isation agree s that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circula ted in any form any of the contents without the writte n permission of Douglas-W estwo od Latin America Chapter 7 : Market Forecast Expenditure for both import ( %) and liquefactio n ( %) infras tructure to total $ bn over 2015-2021 . There are many import proje cts expected. Latin America will also receive the world ’s first floating LNG liquefactio n, regas ificati on and stora ge unit (FLSR U). Average Cape x per annum between 2015 and 2021: $ m Lique factio n; $ m Impo rt. Latin America totals % of globa l fore- cast expenditure – % of liquefactio n and % of import Cape x. Figure 45: Capex on FLNG Facilit ies in Latin America by Type 2014 -2021 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Expe nditu re($billion) Import Lique factio n Latin America will see an investmen t of $ bn over 2015-2021 , % of globa l spend on floating LNG proje cts. % of the region’s spend is on liquefactio n facilities while % is on impo rt infras tructure. Import The region is home to five operational floating units, all of which are located in Argentina and Brazil. Golar LNG supplied the FSRU s at Pecém Terminal (Gola r Spirit FSRU) and Guan abara Bay phase 1 (Gola r Winte r FSRU); Excelerate is respo nsible for Guan abara Bay (Expe rience FSRU), Bahía Blanc a GasPort, and the Puert o Escob ar LNG proje cts. Combined , these proje cts provi de Argentina and Brazil with mmtp a of floating impo rt capac ity. Ex- perience FSRU, the world ’s largest FSRU , has all outpu t capac ity of 1bcf/d and replaced Golar Winte r. Golar Winte r is now deplo yed to Brazil’s terminal in Bahía de Todos os Santo s, Salvador. Over the forec ast perio d, $ bn in Cape x is expected on floating impo rt and regas ification facilities. Proje cts curre ntly under const ructio n includ e Chile ’s Mejillones FSRU (Gola r NB 13 FSRU), Argentina’s GNL Puert o Cuatreros , Uruguay’s GNL Del Plata FSRU and Puert o Rico’s Aguir re GasPort. Othe r key proje cts includ e Jamai ca’s Port Esquivel FSRU, Chile ’s Quint ero Bay FSRU and Dom inican Repu blic’s Marcoris FSRU. Liquefaction Floating liquefactio n facilities are expected to total $ bn for the perio d 2015-2021 , on the vesse l Colom bia FLSRU , the world ’s first floating LNG liquefactio n, regas ifica- tion and storage unit. Expected onstr eam in the earlie r part of the forec ast, it will be situat ed in the Colombian Carib bean coast and will have storage capac ity of m 3 of LNG. The FLRSU has regas ification facilities but its prima ry function is to liquefy and expo rt LNG produced from nearb y onshore fields. Previously, Petro bras’ ultra- deepwater pre-salt fields would have seen one of the region’s first FLNG liquefactio n vesse ls come onstr eam. However, plans for this unit have been put on hold in favou r of pipelines. Falling gas prices in the region exace rbate d by the Unite d States’ expected expo rts of shale gas outpu ts will threa ten Petro bras’ plans for a floating liquefactio n unit. Petro bras has already shelved its plans for an FLNG vesse l in the Santo s Basin. $ millio n 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Lique factio n 0 Impor t Total Table 21: Capex on FLNG Facilit ies in Latin America by Type 2014 -2021 Import Lique factio n © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 13 World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 By purch asing this docum ent, your organ isation agree s that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circula ted in any form any of the contents without the writte n permission of Douglas-W estwo od Floating Liquefaction – Onshore Cost Comparison Chapter 2 : Why Floating LNG? Floating liquefactio n remo ves high cost variab les such as pipelines, lowering overa ll Cape x. Onsh ore terminals have seen EPC costs excee d $1,50 0 per tpa. LNG FPSO s could offer an estim ated Cape x of $800 per tpa. Figure 5: Onsho re vs. Offsho re Liquef action Indica tive Termin al Total Costs 0 500 1,000 1,500 Onsh ore Offsh ore Well Installation sLNG FPSO Production Platfo rmGas Compression system Pipeli ne Onsh ore LNG Plant Figure 6: Onshore vs. Offshore Liquefaction Terminal Capex - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 Onshore Offshore FloatingLinear (Onshore) Onshore terminal costs The cost of onshore LNG terminals has been consistently increasing over the past 15 years with no indica tion of declin e; some onshore LNG facilities have seen EPC costs as high as $1,50 0 per tonne per annum. Othe r costs, apart from the Cape x assoc i- ated with the terminal const ructio n and design, are accum ulated durin g the develop- ment of an onshore LNG proje ct.Assuming the field is located offshore, other infras tructure is also requi red in order to extra ct the gas, includ ing production platfo rms, subse a wells and subse a pipelines from the production platfo rm to the on- shore terminal. Floating terminal costs A floating offshore LNG terminal elimin ates the need for costly production platfo rms and expo rt pipelines, lowering overa ll Cape x for the proje ct. The figure show s that the pipeline to shore can be more than 10% of proje ct costs (or $200 per mmtp a) in some cases . Furth ermo re, LNG FPSO s can be con- structed in the contr olled environme nt of a shipyard unlike onshore terminals, which are typica lly const ructe d in-situ ‘stick-build ’ or transporte d to site in modu lar form. FLNG developer s are aimin g for costs be- tween $700 and $900 per tonne of annual liquefactio n capac ity depending on the feed gas specificatio ns and other proje ct specific costs. “FLN G is a reaso nably cheap er solu- tion, but proje ct financ ing does not allow this at the mom ent as lending mone y for the proje ct is risky with- out any FLNG vesse ls in operation. Curre ntly, all FLNG vesse ls are being built using the Oper ators’ mone y.” Major FLNG EPC contr actor Figure 7: LNG Capital Costs Source : Oil & Gas Journa l $billi on Onsh ore Float ing Optio n(1 x 4 mmt pa) Float ing Optio n(2 x 2 mmt pa) Produ ction Facilit ies 1.9 1.9 1.9 FPSO 1.2 - - Expor t Pipelin e 2.5 - - LNG Plant 5.5 5.8 6.6 Total 11.1 7.7 8.5 © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 34World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Shipyard Review Chapter 5 : FLNG Supply Chain The key shipyards involved in LNG projects are located in South Korea, Japan and Singapore. South Korean yards lead in the areas of newbuild floating regasification and newbuild floating liquefaction vessel construction. To date, only DSME and Samsung Heavy Industries have sanctioned projects for LNG FPSOs, positioning them as market leaders in floating liquefaction. Hyundai Heavy Industries and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries are poised to begin construction on floating liquefaction vessels. Dubai Drydocks have involved themselves in the construction of the pioneer LNG FPSOs through the construction of Prelude FLNG’s turret. We can expect shipyards with construction expertise in floating regasification vessels, FPSOs, and LNG carriers, to have the necessary qualifications and facilities to construct FLNG vessels. Projects indicated refer to those already sanctioned or expressed interest with capability to execute. Legend FPSO LNG Carriers Newbuild Floating Regasification Conversion Floating Regasification Newbuild Floating Liquefaction Annual Carrier Capacity (mmpta)3 Italcantieri Yard 3 Dubai Drydocks Keppel Shipyard Izar Sestao Yard 2 Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding 2 Kvaerner Masa-Yards 3 IHI Corporation Imabari Shipbuilding Kawasaki Heavy Industries Mitsubishi Heavy Industries MHI Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding Universal Shipbuilding Corporation 3 4 2 4 2 1 DSME Hanjin Heavy Industries Hyundai Heavy Industries HHI Samsung Heavy Industries SHI STX Offshore & Shipbuilding 2 2 13 11 Excelerate Energy Floating LNG industry set for land- mark project start-ups and further new wave of growth Despite a current pause in commitments to new projects, the capital expenditure (Capex) for FLNG vessels is expected to amount to $35.5bn over 2015-2021. Spending on FSRUs will total $22.8bn over the same period, taking the combined expendi- ture for the Floating LNG market to $58.3bn. There is a huge interest in the pioneering projects that will drive market spend over the coming years. Future commitments by operators to the FLNG market hinges on the success of these pioneering projects. The delivery of Petronas’ PFLNG 1, also known as the PFLNG SATU, will be the world’s first FLNG vessel to start operations on its completion by the end of 2016. This will be followed by Shell’s Prelude FLNG vessel, a significantly larger project and one that is likely to shape future FLNG developments. Construction of the 488 metres long facility started in 2012 (the unit is being built by Samsung in Korea) and is expected to start up by 2017. Following these projects is a second wave of new projects that are yet to be sanctioned but are ex- pected to drive a growth in expenditure from 2019 onwards. This includes major projects in frontier regions such as East Africa. DW anticipates more floating regasification units are to be sanctioned, with Asia and Latin America being the dominant regions. Upcoming projects are visible in Indonesia, China, Pakistan, India, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, mostly led by National Oil Companies. Latin America will see deployments of floating regas units in Chile and Puerto Rico. The World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 fore- casts activity through to 2021 and contains analysis of: • Market Drivers and Trends – including the monetisation of stranded gas reserves, security of supply, onshore terminal costs, environmental solutions and increasing long-term gas demand. • The FLNG Supply Chain – operators, FLNG leasing, EPC contractors, vessel yards, topside sub-contractors and financing analysis. • FLNG Import and Export Capacity – prospec- tive installations 2015-2021, along with DW’s forecast for the required Capex to bring this capacity online. This includes construction of base-load FLNG liquefaction and import (regasi- fication) vessels. • Capex Breakdowns – expenditure for liquefac- tion and regasification vessels segmented by component looking at topsides, hull & contain- ment systems and mooring & transfer systems. And by service, including technology licencing, FEED, detailed design engineering, construction engineering, installation, hook-up & commission- ing and construction of hull & topsides. • Regional analysis – Africa, Asia, Australasia, East- ern Europe & FSU, Latin America, Middle East, North America and Western Europe.
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  • 3. 2015 World FLNG Market Forecast Prospects, Technologies, World Markets 2015-2021
  • 4. © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 2World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Contents Table of Contents 1 Summary and Conclusions.......................................7 Summary.......................................................................................................................................... 8 Conclusions..................................................................................................................................... 9 2 Why Floating LNG?................................................ 10 Floating Liquefaction – Market Drivers...................................................................................11 Onshore & FLNG Comparison & Definitions........................................................................12 Floating Liquefaction – Onshore Cost Comparison.............................................................13 The History of Floating LNG.....................................................................................................14 Floating Regasification – Market Drivers................................................................................15 3 Floating Liquefaction............................................... 16 Hulls................................................................................................................................................17 LNG FPSO.....................................................................................................................................18 Containment Systems.................................................................................................................19 LNG FPSO Process Diagram.....................................................................................................20 Liquefaction Plant Process Flow...............................................................................................21 Liquefaction Technology.............................................................................................................22 Offloading to Regasification Vessels.........................................................................................23 4 Floating Regasification............................................ 24 FSRU & Regasification Vessels...................................................................................................25 Topsides & Regasification Process............................................................................................26 Destination LNG Offloading......................................................................................................27 5 FLNG Supply Chain................................................ 28 LNG FPSO Supply Chain: Pre-FEED/FEED.............................................................................29 LNG FPSO Supply Chain: EPC..................................................................................................30 Floating LNG Regasification Supply Chain..............................................................................31 Financing........................................................................................................................................32 LNG Business Model...................................................................................................................33 Shipyard Review...........................................................................................................................34 Leasing Contractors – Floating Liquefaction..........................................................................35 Leasing Contractors – Floating Regasification.......................................................................36 6 FLNG Projects......................................................... 37 Oil Price Impact on FLNG Projects.........................................................................................38 Floating Regasification.................................................................................................................39 Floating Liquefaction Projects...................................................................................................40 Pioneer FLNG Projects...............................................................................................................41 7 Market Forecast....................................................... 42 Methodology.................................................................................................................................43 8 Appendix................................................................... 60 Conversion Tables.......................................................................................................................61 Prospective Floating Regasification Vessels ...........................................................................62 Data and Text Conventions.......................................................................................................64
  • 5. © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 3World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Contents Figures Figure 1: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Region 2014-2020........................................................8 Figure 2: Percentage Regional Comparison on FLNG 2014-2020.........................................................8 Figure 3: Top 10 countries with Proven Natural Gas Reserves (as at end 2013).......................11 Figure 4: Process Diagram of the LNG chain.................................................................................................12 Figure 5: Onshore vs. Offshore Liquefaction Indicative Terminal Total Costs...............................13 Figure 6: Onshore vs. Offshore Liquefaction Terminal Capex..............................................................13 Figure 7: LNG Capital Costs...................................................................................................................................13 Figure 8: History of Floating LNG........................................................................................................................14 Figure 9: Overview of Operational and Future LNG Facilities..............................................................14 Figure 10: Gas Consumption by Region 2005-2030..................................................................................15 Figure 11: LNG FPSO Layout.................................................................................................................................18 Figure 12: Sloshing Inside a Tank...........................................................................................................................19 Figure 13: LNG Facility Liquefaction Process Flow.....................................................................................21 Figure 14: Single Train Capacity for Several Liquefaction Process.......................................................22 Figure 15: FSRU Topside Process ........................................................................................................................26 Figure 16: Submerged Combustion Vaporiser (Closed Loop)..............................................................26 Figure 17: Schematic of the Sea Water Vaporiser (Open-loop)..........................................................26 Figure 18: LNG FPSO Pre-FEED & FEED Supply Chain...........................................................................29 Figure 19: LNG FPSO EPC Supply Chain........................................................................................................30 Figure 20: Floating LNG Regasification Supply Chain................................................................................31 Figure 21: Typical Finance Project Structure...................................................................................................32 Figure 22: LNG FPSO Simplified Business Model .......................................................................................33 Figure 23: Henry Hub Gas, West Texas Intermediate FOB & Europe Brent Spot Prices.......38 Figure 24: Global Floating Regasification Fleet...............................................................................................39 Figure 25: Focus areas for FLNG export project development...........................................................40 Figure 26: Shell Prelude FLNG...............................................................................................................................41 Figure 27: Petronas PFLNG 1.................................................................................................................................41 Figure 28: Columbia FLSRU....................................................................................................................................41 Figure 29: Components of an FLNG vessel....................................................................................................44 Figure 30: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Region 2008-2021.........................................45 Figure 31: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Component 2008-2021..............................46 Figure 32: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Service 2008-2021.........................................46 Figure 33: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Region 2008-2021.....................................................47 Figure 34: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Component 2008-2021.........................................48 Figure 35: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Service 2008-2021....................................................48 Figure 36: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Component 2008-2021.......................................49 Figure 37: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Service 2008-2021..................................................49 Figure 38: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Region 2008-2021...................................................50 Figure 39: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Type 2014-2021.......................................................51 Figure 40: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Africa by Type 2014-2021....................................................52 Figure 41: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Asia by Type 2014-2021.......................................................53 Figure 42: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Australasia by Type 2014-2021.........................................54 Figure 43: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Country of Service 2014-2021................54 Figure 44: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Eastern Europe & FSU by Type 2014-2021................55 Figure 45: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Latin America by Type 2014-2021..................................56 Figure 46: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Middle East by Type 2014-2021........................................57 Figure 47: Capex on FLNG Facilities in North America by Type 2014-2021...............................58 Figure 48: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Western Europe by Type 2014-2021.............................59
  • 6. © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 4World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Contents Tables Table 1: Conventional FPSO Components......................................................................................................18 Table 2: Typical Natural Gas Composition.......................................................................................................20 Table 3: Floating Liquefaction Lease Contractors and Operators.......................................................35 Table 4: Floating LNG Projects by Status and Year.....................................................................................40 Table 5: Prelude, PFLNG and FLSRU Vessel Details...................................................................................41 Table 6: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Region 2014-2021..............................................45 Table 7: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Component 2014-2021..................................46 Table 8: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Service 2014-2021.............................................46 Table 9: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Region 2014-2021.........................................................47 Table 10: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Component 2014-2021...........................................48 Table 11: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Service 2014-2021......................................................48 Table 12: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Component 2014-2021.........................................49 Table 13: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Service 2014-2021....................................................49 Table 14: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Region 2014-2021.....................................................50 Table 15: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Type 2014-2021.........................................................51 Table 16: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Africa by Type 2014-2021......................................................52 Table 17: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Asia by Type 2014-2021.........................................................53 Table 18: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Australasia by Type 2014-2021...........................................54 Table 19: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Australasia by Country of Service 2014-2021.............54 Table 20: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Eastern Europe & FSU by Type 2014-2021..................55 Table 21: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Latin America by Type 2014-2021....................................56 Table 22: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Middle East by Type 2014-2021.........................................57 Table 23: Capex on FLNG Facilities in North America by Type 2014-2021.................................58 Table 24: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Western Europe by Type 2014-2021..............................59 Table 25: Conversion Table......................................................................................................................................61 Table 26: Prospective Floating Regasification Vessels.................................................................................62
  • 7. © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 5World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Notes & Acknowledgements About Us Disclaimer This report is a Douglas-Westwood (DW) study and all rights are reserved, whether this pertains to the body of the report or any information contained within. The information contained in this document is believed to be accurate, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Douglas-West- wood as to the completeness, accuracy or fairness of any information contained in it, and we do not accept any responsibility in relation to such information whether fact, opinion or conclusion that the reader may draw. The views expressed are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent those of the publisher. While we have made every attempt to ensure the information contained in this document has been obtained from reliable sources, Douglas-Westwood is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results obtained from the use of this information. All informa- tion in this document is provided “as is”, with no guarantee of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including, but not limited to warranties of performance, mer- chantability and fitness for a particular purpose. Nothing herein shall to any extent substitute for the independent investigations and the sound technical and business judgment of the reader. Laws and regulations are continually changing, and can be interpreted only in light of particular factual situations. World FLNG Market Forecast is published by: Douglas-Westwood Limited, 20 East Street Faversham Kent ME13 8AS, UK tel: +44 203 4799 505 fax: +44 1795 594748 admin@douglaswestwood.com © Copyright Douglas-Westwood Limited 2015 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of the publishers. Additional copies of this study may be purchased at a specially discounted rate. DW report number 557-15 ISBN 978-1-910045-20-6 Production Team Editor Steve Robertson sr@douglaswestwood.com Assistant Editor Thom Payne tp@douglaswestwood.com Report Author Ben Wilby bw@douglaswestwood.com Mark Adeosun ma@douglaswestwood.com Amanda Tay at@douglaswestwood.com
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