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World Subsea Vessel Operations
Market Forecast 2016-2020energy business insight
e: research@douglaswestwood.com t: +44 (0)203 4799 505
www.douglas-westwood.com
Aberdeen | Faversham | Houston | London | Singapore
•	 Prospects
•	 Technologies
•	 Markets
Subsea 7
© 2015
Douglas-Westwood
42
World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020
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asing
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ent, your organ
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od
Australasia – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
Chapter 5 : The Subsea Vessel Market Forecast
Figure
28: Australasia
– Expenditur
e by Market and Vessel Day Dema
nd
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Num
berofSubs
eaTree
s(Insta
llatio
n)
<250
m
250-4
99m
500-9
99m
>100
0m
Table
17: Australasia
– Expenditur
e & Vessel Day Dema
nd by Market Total
expenditure: 2016
- 2020
$ bn Field
devel
opme
nt
$
bn IRM
$
bn Pipeline
$
bn Subse
a Intervention
Total
vesse
l days dema
nd 2016-2020
:
% Field
Deve
lopment
% IRM
% Pipeline
% Subse
a Intervention
Field
devel
opme
nt activity will accou
nt
for the highe
st numb
er of vesse
l
dema
nd in the region follow
by IRM
secto
r.
Regio
nally,
total
expenditure continues
to
slip from
2014
throu
gh to 2017
due to
delay
s to major proje
cts such
as the Equus
developm
ent which
was origin
ally expected
to come
onstr
eam in 2017. Activ
ity is
expected to intensify durin
g the latter
years
of the forec
ast perio
d due to stron
g grow
th
in field developm
ent.
A significant
portion of the expenditure
is likely
to occur towards the end of the
forec
ast perio
d, reach
ing $ bn in 2020.
This is derived from
field developm
ent ac-
tivitie
s for Greater Gorg
on, Bonaparte
and
the Greater West
ern Flank’s further Phase
developm
ent.
Field
development
Field
developm
ent expenditure is fore-
casted to reach
$ bn over
the perio
d
to 2020, accou
nting
for
% of the total
expenditure in the region.
The field developm
ent secto
r experienced
an annual avera
ge grow
th rate of
%,
the fastes
t grow
ing secto
r in the Austr
alasia
market.
Pipeline
Pipelay activities over
the next
couple of
years
will be low. However,
major pipeline
proje
cts at the end of the forec
ast perio
d
will drive
grow
th. Expenditure of the pipe-
line secto
r amou
nts to $
bn at
%
CAG
R, This repre
sents
a decre
ase of 7%
in forec
ast expenditure comp
ared
to the
prece
ding five years
.
The numb
er of vesse
l days will grow
at
88% CAG
R even
thoug
h the Brow
se Basin
proje
ct which
is now
expected to reach
FID next
year has chang
ed from
a pipeline
to shore
developm
ent concept to a floating
LNG. Othe
r major pipeline proje
ct such
as the Equus and Scarb
orough pipeline will
drive
vesse
l dema
nd.
IRM
IRM secto
r vesse
l day dema
nd experienced
the joint lowest grow
th amon
g the secto
rs
in the region at % CAG
R
Expenditure over
the forec
ast perio
d
amou
nts to $
bn, grow
ing at
%
CAG
R. This repre
sents
a % grow
th com-
pared
to the prece
ding five years
’ spend
.
Subsea intervention
Subse
a interv
entio
n expenditure will also
experience a % CAG
R grow
th totalling
$ 5bn from
2016-2020
. This repre
sents
10% of the region’s expenditure.
Mark
et ($ bn)
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Field
Devel
opme
nt
Pipelin
e
IRM
Subse
a Interv
ention
Total
Vesse
l Days
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Field
Devel
opme
nt
Pipelin
e
IRM
Subse
a Interv
ention
Total
© 2015
Douglas-Westwood
34
World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020
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asing
this docum
ent, your organ
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to be copied in part or whole
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ted in any form any of the contents without the writte
n permission
of Douglas-W
estwo
od
Model Summary
Chapter 5 : The Subsea Vessel Market Forecast
Douglas-Westwood The World Subsea Vessel Operations Report
Offshore
Production
Oil & Gas
Production
Energy
Demand
SubseaInfrastructure SubseaComponents Subsea
Wellstock
Subsea FieldDevelopment &Construction Inspection, Repair &Maintenance Subsea WellIntervention
MSV
DSV
Pipelay
Flexlay
LWIV
Subsea Vessel Types Covered
in this Report
Colo
ur Key:
Macro Economic
Drive
r
Market Trend
Market Drive
rsKey Markets
Key Vesse
ls
The diagram illustr
ates the DW
Vesse
l De-
mand
Mode
l for the Worl
d Subse
a Vesse
ls
Market Repo
rt 2016-2020
.O&G
production is mainly driven by macro
economic
factors. This creates the dema
nd
for subse
a infras
tructure, comp
onents and
wells, which
directly affect
s the requi
re-
ment
for specific vesse
ls needed to install
and maintain subse
a infras
tructure and
equip
ment
.
MethodologyThis report provi
des a ten-y
ear view
of
vesse
l dema
nd for the follow
ing key subse
a
markets from
2011
to 2020:
Subse
a Field
Deve
lopm
ent & Cons
truc-
tion:
Installation
of subse
a production
hardw
are, subse
a proce
ssing
hardw
are,
SURF
(Infield flowlines, production
umbilicals
and risers
).
Pipeline Cons
truct
ion & Pipeline
Support: Installation
of pipeline that
transports
product to shore
.Inspe
ction
, Repa
ir & Maintenan
ce: Of
fixed
and floating platfo
rms, subse
a pipe-
line and hardw
are.
Subse
a Intervention: Subse
a well
dema
nd for riserless and rigless well
interv
entio
n vesse
ls (excluding
actua
l
drillin
g rigs).
DW
analyses vesse
l dema
nd and expendi-
ture in ten regions, name
ly -Afric
a, Asia,
Austr
alasia
, Easte
rn Europe & FSU,
Latin
America, Middle East,
North America, Nor-
way, UK and the Rest of West
ern Europe.
 
The inform
ation
utilise
d in the mode
l is
based
on the subse
a field developm
ent
prosp
ects listed
in DW’s Oil & Gas Data-
base
on the 10th
Aug 2015. In this dynam
ic
indus
try, any forec
asting
beyond the very
short
-term
can be ambiguous. Therefore
,
in light of this we have
chose
n to take a
conse
rvativ
e view
of the prosp
ects for the
subse
a secto
r as a whole.
In this report, expo
rt pipeline support ves-
sels have
been
taken
into considerat
ion to
prese
nt a more
holist
ic view
of the market.
Day rates
for the various vesse
ls types
will
vary significantly based
on their
curre
nt work
region and individual specificatio
ns such
as
size, age, dynam
ic positioning, crane
capac
ity,
ROV,
berth
s, diver
capac
ity, etc. The day
rates
mode
lled are by natur
e highly
specu
la-
tive for various reaso
ns, amon
g other
s:Subse
a const
ructio
n contr
actor
s do not
disclo
se indivi
dual day rates
for their
vesse
l fleet.
Vesse
ls are often
contr
acted
as part of
an EPCI
type contr
act award in which
limite
d inform
ation
is released into the
public doma
in.
Rates
vary dram
atically depending
on
the age of the vesse
l, its capab
ility, the
region and the equip
ment
that can be
installed on its deck.Any additional
specialist techn
ology
or
engin
eering expertise requi
red further
increases the day rates.
 
An overv
iew of the day rates
per vesse
l
type are provi
ded in Chap
ter 4. These rates
are predo
minantly specu
lative
and it is pos-
sible
that they could
be exceeded
or may
not be achie
ved.
Furth
er details of meth
odolo
gy are availa
ble
on reque
st.
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 26World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020
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Global Vessel Supply
Chapter 4 : The Vessel Fleet
Figure 17: Active Global Fleet by Type
Figure 18: Book to Fleet by Vessel Type
*Subsea vessel supply slated over the forecast period is based on current visibility of orderbook.
%
%
%
%
%
DSV
MSV
FLEX
PIPELAY
LWIV
DSV
MSV
FLEX
PIPELAY
LWIV
Number of Units
Active Fleet
On Order
There is a total of subsea vessels in the
global active fleet including MSVs ( %),
DSVs ( %), Pipelays ( %), Flexlays ( %)
and LWIVs ( %).
The current DSV fleet has an average age
of years. As a result of increasing vessel
requirements, an additional DSVs are
expected, a % fleet-to-book ratio.
There is a current oversupply of MSVs.
This is likely to continue with MSVs
on order representing % of all subsea
vessel orders. This also represents the high-
est book-to-fleet ratio in the near future
amongst vessel types.
Flexlays also have a strong book to fleet
ratio of % ( vessels). This is due to
expected higher demand in Africa and Latin
America in the near future.
The pipelay fleet is the oldest with an aver-
age age of years. A high book to fleet
ratio of % ( vessels) is expected to meet
the growing vessel demand requirements as
well as counteract its ageing fleet.
The LWIV fleet is considered to be the
youngest and smallest compared to other
subsea vessel fleet. In the next five years, an
additional % of LWIVs ( vessels) will be
delivered.
Table 4: Vessel Summaries by Type
DSV Vessel Owner
Vessel Type
Average
Age
Active On Order
DSV 1 DSV 2 DSV3
Oceanografia
Subsea 7
Hal Offshore
Cal Dive
Others
Total
MSV Vessel Owner
Vessel Type
Average
Age
Active On Order
MSV 1 MSV 2 MSV 3
Bourbon Offshore
DOF Management
Solstad Offshore
Sealion Shipping
Others
Total
Flexlay Vessel
Owner
Vessel Type
Average
Age
Active On Order
FLEX 1 FLEX 2 FLEX 3
Subsea 7
DOF Management
Sapura Navegacao Maritima
Technip Offshore UK
Others 4
Total
LWIV
Vessel Owner
Vessel Type
Average
Age
Active On Order
LWIV (Rigless) LWIV (Riserless)
Island Offshore Mngt
GMS
Rem Maritime -
DOF Management
Others 2
Total
Pipelay Vessel
Owner
Vessel Type
Average
Age
Active On OrderReel
Lay
J-Lay S-Lay
Multi-
Lay
Saipem
Sea Trucks
Technip Offshore UK
Subsea 7
Others
Total
© 2015
Douglas-Westwood
23
World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020
By purch
asing
this docum
ent, your organ
isation agree
s that it will not copy or allow
to be copied in part or whole
or otherwise circula
ted in any form any of the contents without the writte
n permission
of Douglas-W
estwo
od
Activity by Vessel Type
Chapter 3 : Definitions and Terminology
The diagram exam
ines the type of vesse
ls within each
subse
a secto
r of this report – field
developm
ent, IRM and subse
a well interv
entio
n, and plug & abandonm
ent.
In each
secto
r there
are vesse
ls able to provi
de a range
of servic
es in shallo
w and deep
waters. The vesse
ls them
selves have
been
designed to be able to perfo
rm a variety of tasks
which
make
them
valuable assets.
Table
3: Vessel Activity by Vessel Type
FIEL
D DEVE
LOPM
ENT
& CON
STRU
CTIO
N
IRM
WEL
L INTE
RVEN
TION
VESS
EL TYPE Subs
ea Prod
uctio
nHard
ware
Subs
ea Umb
ilicals
,Riser
s andFlow
lines
(SUR
F)
Proc
essin
gHard
ware
Pipel
ines
Inspe
ction
Repa
ir &Main
tenan
ce
Cate
gory
A
Cate
gory
B
Cate
gory
C
S
D
S
D
S
D
S
D
S
D
S
D
S
D
S
D
S
D
DSV
TYPE
1
TYPE
2
TYPE
3
MSV
TYPE
1
TYPE
2
TYPE
3
Flexla
y
TYPE
1
TYPE
2
TYPE
3
Pipela
y
REEL
LAY
S-LAY
J-LAY
LWIV
RISER
LESS
RIGLE
SS
Vesse
l is capab
le of opera
ting in this sector
and water
depth
Vesse
l may be able to perfor
m or assist
with tasks.
Vesse
l is not capab
le of opera
ting in this sector
and water
depth
.
S
Shallo
w Wate
r <500
mD
Deep
water
>500
m
© 2015
Douglas-Westwood
20
World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020
By purch
asing
this docum
ent, your organ
isation agree
s that it will not copy or allow
to be copied in part or whole
or otherwise circula
ted in any form any of the contents without the writte
n permission
of Douglas-W
estwo
od
Vessel Types
Chapter 3 : Definitions and Terminology
Vesse
ls are becoming
increasingly multi-purp
ose in order to reduc
e over-
dependence on a specific market. Below
is an overv
iew of the various vesse
ls referred to in this report and the prima
ry markets with which
they are assoc
iated.
Aside
from
the follow
ing vesse
ls, other
vesse
l types
are not includ
ed in this report.
Increasing Dayrates
MSVs
are vessel
s with both
crane
and ROV
capac
ity. They
range
greatl
y in size and abil-
ity from
survey
vessel
s with 20mt
crane
s to
400m
t active
heave
comp
ensati
on (AHC
)
crane
vessel
s, used
for deepw
ater subse
a field
develo
pmen
t.
As a result
, these
vessel
s are often
used
in a
range
of marke
ts from
geote
chnica
l survey
ing,
to constr
uction
, IRM and even
suppo
rt servic
es.
Multi
purp
ose Supp
ort Vesse
ls (MSV
)
DSVs
are charac
terise
d as having
satura
tion
diving
capab
ility. Increa
singly,
these
vessel
s are
being
equip
ped with larger
crane
capac
ities to
enable
them
to work
in deepe
r water
s.
Simila
r to MSVs
, these
vessel
s are used
in a
variet
y of marke
ts. Howe
ver, DSVs
are typica
lly
not suited
to geote
chnica
l & geoph
ysical
work.
Dive
Supp
ort Vesse
ls (DSV
) Light
Well
Interv
ention
vessel
s are define
d by
the prese
nce of a wirelin
e mast
and subse
a
lubric
ator system
which
allows
access
to subse
a
wells
to perfor
m remed
ial or produ
ction
enhan
ceme
nt work.
Altho
ugh riserle
ss interv
ention
is curren
tly lim-
ited to shallo
w water
s, these
vessel
s tend
to be
high end units
capab
le of provid
ing constr
uc-
tion suppo
rt and IRM servic
es in deepw
ater.
Light
Well
Inter
venti
on (LWI
V)
Three
metho
ds of pipe laying
are used
–
Reel-l
ay, S-lay
and J-lay. Each
laying
techn
ique
requir
es a specia
list vessel
equip
ped for the
purpo
se.
Large
r vessel
s are also capab
le of install
ing rigid
pipe as well as flexibl
e.
Pipe
Lay
Flexla
y vessel
s are used
to install
flexibl
e lines
such
as flowlin
es, umbil
icals and risers
– but are
not suitab
le for rigid lines.
A flexlay
system
mainly
consis
ts of a vertic
al
ramp
equip
ped with a numb
er of tensio
ners
and a chute
or whee
l on top.
Cable
& Flex-
Lay
Main
Mark
ets Serve
d
Main
Mark
ets Serve
d
Main
Mark
ets Serve
d
Main
Mark
ets Serve
d
Main
Mark
ets Serve
d
IRM (ROV
work
)
Field
Deve
lopm
ent (depe
ndent on
crane
capac
ity)
Pipelay support
IRM (ROV
& Dive
work
)
Field
Deve
lopm
ent (depe
ndent on
crane
capac
ity)
Pipelay support
IRM (ROV
& Dive
work
)
Field
Deve
lopm
ent (depe
ndent on
crane
capac
ity)
Well
interv
entio
n servic
es.
Flowlines (Flex)
Risers (Flex)
Umbilicals
Offsh
ore Wind
Farm
Cable
s
IRM (ROV
& Dive
work
)
Field
Deve
lopm
ent (depe
ndent on
crane
capac
ity)
Flowlines (Flex
& Rigid)
Risers
Umbilicals
IRM (ROV
& Dive
work
)
Field
Deve
lopm
ent (depe
ndent on
crane
capac
ity)
© 2015
Douglas-Westwood
13
World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020
By purch
asing
this docum
ent, your organ
isation agree
s that it will not copy or allow
to be copied in part or whole
or otherwise circula
ted in any form any of the contents without the writte
n permission
of Douglas-W
estwo
od
Subsea Focus Areas
Chapter 2 : Drivers and Indicators
Speci
ficatio
n requi
reme
nts of subse
a
vesse
ls are largely deter
mined by
a comb
inatio
n of water depth
and
metaocean
conditions
.
Mark
ets with harsh
sea states such
as
the North Sea will typically need
high-
end assets with excel
lent powe
r rating
and statio
n keeping.
Deep
water mark
ets such
as Africa
or Brazil will requi
re larger vesse
ls
with high crane
and top-tensio
ning
capab
ility.
Shallo
w water, benig
n regions such
as Asia and the Middle East typically
favou
r less comp
lex vesse
ls. However,
increasing
custo
mer prefe
rence
for
reliab
ility and operational efficie
ncy is
drivin
g chang
e in these
regional fleets
.
Nort
h Ame
rica
The North American
market is focus
ed
on the GoM
which
is comp
rised
of a very
large
and mature shallo
w water segm
ent
and ultra-
deep
water segm
ent. Sea states
are typica
lly benig
n but harsh
durin
g the
hurric
ane seaso
n which
lasts from
June to
Nove
mber
.
2,101 16%
1,060m
Benign
Latin
Ame
rica
Latin
American
subse
a activity is domi
-
nated
by Brazil throu
gh state-own
ed oil
comp
any Petro
bras.
Brazil alone
will ac-
count for 16% of globa
l tree installation
s
over
the next
five years
, 94% of these
will
be in ultra-
deep
water.
2,140 19%
1,200m Medium
Afric
a
As a part of the deepwater ‘Gold
en
Triangle’, Africa is a major subse
a market.
Histo
rically
, subse
a activity has been
focus
ed in the Gulf of Guinea. However,
East Africa is expected to become one
of the world
’s prom
inent
grow
th markets
over
the next
decad
e. Subse
a activities
are domi
nated
by IOCs
.
3,478 25%
931m
Benign
Aust
ralia
The market is a major subse
a grow
th
provi
nce with a subst
antial
backlog of
major gas expo
rt proje
cts. Simila
r to the
North Sea, the operating
environme
nt is
relatively shallo
w but challe
nged
by harsh
weather.
682
6%
429m Mediu
m/
Harsh
Nort
h Sea
Traditionally, the North Sea is shallo
w
water with 62% of trees
installed in water
depth
<250
m over
the past five years
.
Extre
me metaocean conditions
neces-
sitate
high specificatio
n vesse
ls.
3,289 10%
200m
Harsh
Asia
Asia is a very large,
predo
minat
ely shallo
w
water market. Activities are curre
ntly fo-
cused
on Bay of Bengal, Java Sea, Celeb
es
Sea and South
China
Sea. Altho
ugh the
market is curre
ntly focused on shallo
w
water IRM activities.
910
9%
480m Benig
n/
Mediu
m
Key
2011-
2015
Avera
ge subse
a
produ
ction
kboe/
d
Typica
l metoc
eancondi
tions
Avera
ge tree water
depth
as
of 2015
2011-
2015
% Subse
a tree
popul
ation
Figure
7: Subse
a Focus
Areas
Protracted Supply Overhang & a Gradual
Recovery in Subsea Vessel Operations Spend
Low hydrocarbon prices, coupled with excessive
newbuilding programmes will result in low utilisation
impacting day rates and overall expenditure over the
forecast period. However, with eventual recovery at
the end of the forecast period, subsea vessel demand
is set to grow at a 5.2% CAGR over the next five
years. Global subsea vessel operations expenditure is
expected to increase by 29% when compared to the
preceding five-year period, totalling $97.7 billion (bn)
from 2016 to 2020.
Africa, Latin America and North America are expected
to account for 47.5% of global expenditure between
2016 and 2020. These regions remain vital to subsea
vessel demand over the forecast period despite falling
oil prices, project delays and political instability associ-
ated with Africa. The development of East African gas
basins in the Indian Ocean will contribute to subsea
vessel demand in the latter years of the forecast period.
Asia will be the single largest market with an anticipated
18.7% of expenditure over the next five years, largely
driven by shallow water inspection repair & mainte-
nance (IRM) and pipelay-related activities.
Australasia has the fastest growth rate of all of the re-
gions at a 46.8% CAGR due to massive offshore gas field
developments required to support its ambitious LNG
export commitments. Activity in the Middle East will rep-
resent 9% of the total global subsea vessel expenditure.
Field development (36%) and IRM (40%) will remain
the principal drivers of global subsea vessel demand
and expenditure. As production in shallow water
basins declines, activities in deeper water are set to
increase as deepwater development becomes inevi-
table. However, operators will continue to invest in
the optimisation of existing shallow water fields.
The World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast
2016-2020 analyses the main factors driving demand
for MSV, DSV, Flexlay, LWIV and Pipelay vessels, sup-
ported by analysis, insight and industry consultation
and includes:
•	 Drivers & indicators – a review of factors influ-
encing subsea markets, including; growing global
energy demand; continued development of
offshore reserves; oil & gas prices; field complex-
ity, technology and cost evolution; the role of
deepwater and how all of these drivers impact
the subsea vessel operations market.
•	 Vessel fleet supply side analysis – global vessel
supply trends for DSVs, MSVs, Flexlays, Pipelays
and LWIVs with historic vessel deliveries from
1960-2015 and current vessel supply and order-
book segmented by vessel type and owner.
•	 Regional analysis – expenditure and vessel day
demand by market with trend commentary for
Africa, Asia, Australasia, Eastern Europe & FSU,
Latin America, Middle East, North America,
Norway, UK and Rest of Western Europe.
World Subsea Vessel Operations
Market Forecast 2016-2020energy business insight
e: research@douglaswestwood.com t: +44 (0)203 4799 505
www.douglas-westwood.com
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Why purchase the World Subsea
Vessel Operations Market Forecast?
DW’s market forecasting is trusted by sector players
worldwide, with clients including the world’s top-10
oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services compa-
nies and top-10 private equity firms.
The report is essential for financial institutions,
vessel owners, equipment manufacturers, offshore
engineering, construction, operations & maintenance
companies and contractors, E&P operators, oil &
gas companies and government agencies & depart-
ments wanting to make more informed investment
decisions.
Our proven approach includes:
•	 Unique and proprietary data – updated year-
round from published sources and insight gained
from industry consultation.
•	 Detailed methodology – the report uses a
unique market model specifically developed
in collaboration with leading subsea industry
participants. Based on the DW's proprietary
databases covering vessels and offshore oil and
gas developments, the report includes a market
forecast with analysis based on unique data.
•	 Comprehensive analysis – expenditure and ves-
sel day demand are segmented by field develop-
ment, IRM, pipeline and subsea intervention for
each region, covering the 2011-2020 period.
•	 Concise report layout – consistent with DW’s
commitment to delivering value for our clients,
all our market forecasts have a concise layout
consisting of industry background and supporting
materials condensed to enable quick review with
‘speed-read’ summaries of key points through-
out.
ISBN 978-1-910045-24-4
"A great report for gaining
		 market insight"
- Shipbroker
"The regional analysis is
		 excellent"
- Vessel Operator
"Gave our team a great
understanding of the market"
- Subsea Equipment Manufacturer
2016 World Subsea Vessel Operations
Market Forecast
Prospects, Technologies, World Markets
2016-2020
Courtesy Subsea 7
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 2World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020
By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood
Contents
Table of Contents
1 Summary and Conclusions......................................7
Summary......................................................................................................................................... 8
Conclusions.................................................................................................................................... 9
2 Drivers and Indicators........................................... 10
Population, GDP & Energy Demand .......................................................................................11
Evolution of Offshore E&P Industry .......................................................................................12
Subsea Focus Areas ....................................................................................................................13
Oil – Supply & Demand .............................................................................................................14
Oil Price Volatility.......................................................................................................................15
Natural Gas..................................................................................................................................16
Oil & Gas Challenges .................................................................................................................17
3 Definitions and Terminology................................ 18
Offshore Field Lifecycle and Subsea Vessels..........................................................................19
Vessel Types ................................................................................................................................20
Vessel Definitions........................................................................................................................21
Vessel Definitions cont. ............................................................................................................22
Activity by Vessel Type ..............................................................................................................23
4 The Vessel Fleet...................................................... 24
Global Vessel Supply...................................................................................................................25
DSVs – Supply Side Market Trends .........................................................................................27
MSVs – Supply Side Market Trends .........................................................................................28
Flexlays – Supply Side Market Trends.....................................................................................29
Pipelays – Supply Side Market Trends.....................................................................................30
LWIVs – Supply Side Market Trends .......................................................................................31
Day Rate Analysis .......................................................................................................................32
5 The Subsea Vessel Market Forecast................... 33
Model Summary...........................................................................................................................34
Global Market – by Region .......................................................................................................35
Global Market – by Sector........................................................................................................36
Africa – Market Overview & Drivers .....................................................................................37
Africa – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure.........................................................................38
Asia – Market Overview & Drivers.........................................................................................39
Asia – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure ............................................................................40
Australasia – Market Overview & Drivers.............................................................................41
Australasia – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure................................................................42
Eastern Europe & FSU – Market Overview & Drivers........................................................43
Eastern Europe & FSU – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure............................................44
Latin America – Market Overview & Drivers.......................................................................45
Latin America – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure...........................................................46
Middle East – Market Overview & Drivers ...........................................................................47
Middle East – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure...............................................................48
North America – Market Overview & Drivers ....................................................................49
North America – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure........................................................50
Norway – Market Overview & Drivers .................................................................................51
Norway – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure.....................................................................52
UK – Market Overview & Drivers..........................................................................................53
UK – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure..............................................................................54
RoWE – Market Overview & Drivers ....................................................................................55
RoWE – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure........................................................................56
6 Appendix .................................................................. 57
Data and Text Conventions......................................................................................................58
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 3World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020
By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood
Contents
Figures
Figure 1: Global Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Region 2011-2020 ...........................8
Figure 2: Global Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Sector 2011-2020............................8
Figure 3: Global Population Growth & Energy Demand, 1965-2035...............................................11
Figure 4: OECD and Non-OECD Energy Intensity, 1980-2015e.......................................................11
Figure 5: Onshore vs Offshore Oil & Gas Production, 2005-2021...................................................12
Figure 6: Development Wells by Water Depth (1960–2020).............................................................12
Figure 7: Subsea Focus Areas ...............................................................................................................................13
Figure 8: Oil Price & Demand 1990-2015......................................................................................................14
Figure 9: World Liquids Production Growth 2005-2015 ......................................................................14
Figure 10: Historical Brent and WTI Oil Prices, January 2010 – July 2015....................................15
Figure 11: Brent Annual Average Spot Price Forecasts 2010-2017...................................................15
Figure 12: Levellised Cost of Energy ($/MWh) in 2020..........................................................................16
Figure 13: Natural Gas Prices ($/mmBtu), 2000-2020.............................................................................16
Figure 14: Oil & Gas Production versus E&P Spend 2000-2015e......................................................17
Figure 15: Skilled Workers by Age Category 2014....................................................................................17
Figure 16: Historic Vessel Deliveries by Type 1960-2015.......................................................................25
Figure 17: Active Global Fleet by Type ...........................................................................................................26
Figure 18: Book-to-Fleet by Vessel Type..........................................................................................................26
Figure 19: 2015 vs. 2014 Day Rate Range......................................................................................................32
Figure 20: Global Vessel Operations Expenditure by Region ..............................................................35
Figure 21: Global Vessel Operations Expenditure by Sector................................................................36
Figure 22: Global Expenditure by Sector, 2011-2015 and 2016-2020............................................36
Figure 23: Africa – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres).........................................37
Figure 24: Africa – Expenditure by Market.....................................................................................................38
Figure 25: Asia – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres) ............................................39
Figure 26: Asia – Expenditure by Market........................................................................................................40
Figure 27: Australasia – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres) ..............................41
Figure 28: Australasia – Expenditure by Market ..........................................................................................42
Figure 29: Eastern Europe & FSU – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres) .....43
Figure 30: Eastern Europe & FSU – Expenditure by Market.................................................................44
Figure 31: Latin America – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres)........................45
Figure 32: Latin America – Expenditure by Market ...................................................................................46
Figure 33: Middle East – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres).............................47
Figure 34: Middle East – Expenditure by Market ........................................................................................48
Figure 35: North America – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres).....................49
Figure 36: North America – Expenditure by Market ................................................................................50
Figure 37: Norway – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres)....................................51
Figure 38: Norway – Expenditure by Market................................................................................................52
Figure 39: UK – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres)...............................................53
Figure 40: UK – Expenditure by Market ..........................................................................................................54
Figure 41: RoWE – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres).......................................55
Figure 42: RoWE – Expenditure by Market...................................................................................................56
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 4World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020
By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood
Contents
Tables
Table 1: Vessel Type Definitions............................................................................................................................21
Table 2: LWIV Definitions........................................................................................................................................22
Table 3: Vessel Activity by Vessel Type .............................................................................................................23
Table 4: Vessel Summaries by Type.....................................................................................................................26
Table 5: DSV Leading Vessel Owner 2015.....................................................................................................27
Table 6: MSV Leading Vessel Owner 2015.....................................................................................................28
Table 7: Flexlay Leading Vessel Owner 2015 ................................................................................................29
Table 8: Pipelay Leading Vessel Owner 2015................................................................................................30
Table 9: LWIV Leading Vessel Owner 2015...................................................................................................31
Table 10: Global Vessel Operations Expenditure by Region ...............................................................35
Table 11: Global Expenditure by Sector..........................................................................................................36
Table 12: Africa – Key Infrastructure..................................................................................................................37
Table 13: Africa – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market.....................................................38
Table 14: Asia – Key Infrastructure .....................................................................................................................39
Table 15: Asia – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market........................................................40
Table 16: Australasia – Key Infrastructure .......................................................................................................41
Table 17: Australasia – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market ..........................................42
Table 18: Eastern Europe & FSU – Key Infrastructure..............................................................................43
Table 19: Eastern Europe & FSU – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market.................44
Table 20: Latin America – Key Infrastructure.................................................................................................45
Table 21: Latin America – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market ...................................46
Table 22: Middle East – Key Infrastructure......................................................................................................47
Table 23: Middle East – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market.........................................48
Table 24: North America – Key Infrastructure..............................................................................................49
Table 25: North America – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market ................................50
Table 26: Norway – Key Infrastructure.............................................................................................................51
Table 27: Norway – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market................................................52
Table 28: UK – Key Infrastructure........................................................................................................................53
Table 29: UK – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market...........................................................54
Table 30: RoWE – Key Infrastructure................................................................................................................55
Table 31: RoWE – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market...................................................56
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 5World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020
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World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 LEAFLET + CONTENTS

  • 1. World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020energy business insight e: research@douglaswestwood.com t: +44 (0)203 4799 505 www.douglas-westwood.com Aberdeen | Faversham | Houston | London | Singapore • Prospects • Technologies • Markets Subsea 7 © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 42 World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 By purch asing this docum ent, your organ isation agree s that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circula ted in any form any of the contents without the writte n permission of Douglas-W estwo od Australasia – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure Chapter 5 : The Subsea Vessel Market Forecast Figure 28: Australasia – Expenditur e by Market and Vessel Day Dema nd 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Num berofSubs eaTree s(Insta llatio n) <250 m 250-4 99m 500-9 99m >100 0m Table 17: Australasia – Expenditur e & Vessel Day Dema nd by Market Total expenditure: 2016 - 2020 $ bn Field devel opme nt $ bn IRM $ bn Pipeline $ bn Subse a Intervention Total vesse l days dema nd 2016-2020 : % Field Deve lopment % IRM % Pipeline % Subse a Intervention Field devel opme nt activity will accou nt for the highe st numb er of vesse l dema nd in the region follow by IRM secto r. Regio nally, total expenditure continues to slip from 2014 throu gh to 2017 due to delay s to major proje cts such as the Equus developm ent which was origin ally expected to come onstr eam in 2017. Activ ity is expected to intensify durin g the latter years of the forec ast perio d due to stron g grow th in field developm ent. A significant portion of the expenditure is likely to occur towards the end of the forec ast perio d, reach ing $ bn in 2020. This is derived from field developm ent ac- tivitie s for Greater Gorg on, Bonaparte and the Greater West ern Flank’s further Phase developm ent. Field development Field developm ent expenditure is fore- casted to reach $ bn over the perio d to 2020, accou nting for % of the total expenditure in the region. The field developm ent secto r experienced an annual avera ge grow th rate of %, the fastes t grow ing secto r in the Austr alasia market. Pipeline Pipelay activities over the next couple of years will be low. However, major pipeline proje cts at the end of the forec ast perio d will drive grow th. Expenditure of the pipe- line secto r amou nts to $ bn at % CAG R, This repre sents a decre ase of 7% in forec ast expenditure comp ared to the prece ding five years . The numb er of vesse l days will grow at 88% CAG R even thoug h the Brow se Basin proje ct which is now expected to reach FID next year has chang ed from a pipeline to shore developm ent concept to a floating LNG. Othe r major pipeline proje ct such as the Equus and Scarb orough pipeline will drive vesse l dema nd. IRM IRM secto r vesse l day dema nd experienced the joint lowest grow th amon g the secto rs in the region at % CAG R Expenditure over the forec ast perio d amou nts to $ bn, grow ing at % CAG R. This repre sents a % grow th com- pared to the prece ding five years ’ spend . Subsea intervention Subse a interv entio n expenditure will also experience a % CAG R grow th totalling $ 5bn from 2016-2020 . This repre sents 10% of the region’s expenditure. Mark et ($ bn) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Field Devel opme nt Pipelin e IRM Subse a Interv ention Total Vesse l Days 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Field Devel opme nt Pipelin e IRM Subse a Interv ention Total © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 34 World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 By purch asing this docum ent, your organ isation agree s that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circula ted in any form any of the contents without the writte n permission of Douglas-W estwo od Model Summary Chapter 5 : The Subsea Vessel Market Forecast Douglas-Westwood The World Subsea Vessel Operations Report Offshore Production Oil & Gas Production Energy Demand SubseaInfrastructure SubseaComponents Subsea Wellstock Subsea FieldDevelopment &Construction Inspection, Repair &Maintenance Subsea WellIntervention MSV DSV Pipelay Flexlay LWIV Subsea Vessel Types Covered in this Report Colo ur Key: Macro Economic Drive r Market Trend Market Drive rsKey Markets Key Vesse ls The diagram illustr ates the DW Vesse l De- mand Mode l for the Worl d Subse a Vesse ls Market Repo rt 2016-2020 .O&G production is mainly driven by macro economic factors. This creates the dema nd for subse a infras tructure, comp onents and wells, which directly affect s the requi re- ment for specific vesse ls needed to install and maintain subse a infras tructure and equip ment . MethodologyThis report provi des a ten-y ear view of vesse l dema nd for the follow ing key subse a markets from 2011 to 2020: Subse a Field Deve lopm ent & Cons truc- tion: Installation of subse a production hardw are, subse a proce ssing hardw are, SURF (Infield flowlines, production umbilicals and risers ). Pipeline Cons truct ion & Pipeline Support: Installation of pipeline that transports product to shore .Inspe ction , Repa ir & Maintenan ce: Of fixed and floating platfo rms, subse a pipe- line and hardw are. Subse a Intervention: Subse a well dema nd for riserless and rigless well interv entio n vesse ls (excluding actua l drillin g rigs). DW analyses vesse l dema nd and expendi- ture in ten regions, name ly -Afric a, Asia, Austr alasia , Easte rn Europe & FSU, Latin America, Middle East, North America, Nor- way, UK and the Rest of West ern Europe.   The inform ation utilise d in the mode l is based on the subse a field developm ent prosp ects listed in DW’s Oil & Gas Data- base on the 10th Aug 2015. In this dynam ic indus try, any forec asting beyond the very short -term can be ambiguous. Therefore , in light of this we have chose n to take a conse rvativ e view of the prosp ects for the subse a secto r as a whole. In this report, expo rt pipeline support ves- sels have been taken into considerat ion to prese nt a more holist ic view of the market. Day rates for the various vesse ls types will vary significantly based on their curre nt work region and individual specificatio ns such as size, age, dynam ic positioning, crane capac ity, ROV, berth s, diver capac ity, etc. The day rates mode lled are by natur e highly specu la- tive for various reaso ns, amon g other s:Subse a const ructio n contr actor s do not disclo se indivi dual day rates for their vesse l fleet. Vesse ls are often contr acted as part of an EPCI type contr act award in which limite d inform ation is released into the public doma in. Rates vary dram atically depending on the age of the vesse l, its capab ility, the region and the equip ment that can be installed on its deck.Any additional specialist techn ology or engin eering expertise requi red further increases the day rates.   An overv iew of the day rates per vesse l type are provi ded in Chap ter 4. These rates are predo minantly specu lative and it is pos- sible that they could be exceeded or may not be achie ved. Furth er details of meth odolo gy are availa ble on reque st. © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 26World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Global Vessel Supply Chapter 4 : The Vessel Fleet Figure 17: Active Global Fleet by Type Figure 18: Book to Fleet by Vessel Type *Subsea vessel supply slated over the forecast period is based on current visibility of orderbook. % % % % % DSV MSV FLEX PIPELAY LWIV DSV MSV FLEX PIPELAY LWIV Number of Units Active Fleet On Order There is a total of subsea vessels in the global active fleet including MSVs ( %), DSVs ( %), Pipelays ( %), Flexlays ( %) and LWIVs ( %). The current DSV fleet has an average age of years. As a result of increasing vessel requirements, an additional DSVs are expected, a % fleet-to-book ratio. There is a current oversupply of MSVs. This is likely to continue with MSVs on order representing % of all subsea vessel orders. This also represents the high- est book-to-fleet ratio in the near future amongst vessel types. Flexlays also have a strong book to fleet ratio of % ( vessels). This is due to expected higher demand in Africa and Latin America in the near future. The pipelay fleet is the oldest with an aver- age age of years. A high book to fleet ratio of % ( vessels) is expected to meet the growing vessel demand requirements as well as counteract its ageing fleet. The LWIV fleet is considered to be the youngest and smallest compared to other subsea vessel fleet. In the next five years, an additional % of LWIVs ( vessels) will be delivered. Table 4: Vessel Summaries by Type DSV Vessel Owner Vessel Type Average Age Active On Order DSV 1 DSV 2 DSV3 Oceanografia Subsea 7 Hal Offshore Cal Dive Others Total MSV Vessel Owner Vessel Type Average Age Active On Order MSV 1 MSV 2 MSV 3 Bourbon Offshore DOF Management Solstad Offshore Sealion Shipping Others Total Flexlay Vessel Owner Vessel Type Average Age Active On Order FLEX 1 FLEX 2 FLEX 3 Subsea 7 DOF Management Sapura Navegacao Maritima Technip Offshore UK Others 4 Total LWIV Vessel Owner Vessel Type Average Age Active On Order LWIV (Rigless) LWIV (Riserless) Island Offshore Mngt GMS Rem Maritime - DOF Management Others 2 Total Pipelay Vessel Owner Vessel Type Average Age Active On OrderReel Lay J-Lay S-Lay Multi- Lay Saipem Sea Trucks Technip Offshore UK Subsea 7 Others Total © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 23 World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 By purch asing this docum ent, your organ isation agree s that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circula ted in any form any of the contents without the writte n permission of Douglas-W estwo od Activity by Vessel Type Chapter 3 : Definitions and Terminology The diagram exam ines the type of vesse ls within each subse a secto r of this report – field developm ent, IRM and subse a well interv entio n, and plug & abandonm ent. In each secto r there are vesse ls able to provi de a range of servic es in shallo w and deep waters. The vesse ls them selves have been designed to be able to perfo rm a variety of tasks which make them valuable assets. Table 3: Vessel Activity by Vessel Type FIEL D DEVE LOPM ENT & CON STRU CTIO N IRM WEL L INTE RVEN TION VESS EL TYPE Subs ea Prod uctio nHard ware Subs ea Umb ilicals ,Riser s andFlow lines (SUR F) Proc essin gHard ware Pipel ines Inspe ction Repa ir &Main tenan ce Cate gory A Cate gory B Cate gory C S D S D S D S D S D S D S D S D S D DSV TYPE 1 TYPE 2 TYPE 3 MSV TYPE 1 TYPE 2 TYPE 3 Flexla y TYPE 1 TYPE 2 TYPE 3 Pipela y REEL LAY S-LAY J-LAY LWIV RISER LESS RIGLE SS Vesse l is capab le of opera ting in this sector and water depth Vesse l may be able to perfor m or assist with tasks. Vesse l is not capab le of opera ting in this sector and water depth . S Shallo w Wate r <500 mD Deep water >500 m © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 20 World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 By purch asing this docum ent, your organ isation agree s that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circula ted in any form any of the contents without the writte n permission of Douglas-W estwo od Vessel Types Chapter 3 : Definitions and Terminology Vesse ls are becoming increasingly multi-purp ose in order to reduc e over- dependence on a specific market. Below is an overv iew of the various vesse ls referred to in this report and the prima ry markets with which they are assoc iated. Aside from the follow ing vesse ls, other vesse l types are not includ ed in this report. Increasing Dayrates MSVs are vessel s with both crane and ROV capac ity. They range greatl y in size and abil- ity from survey vessel s with 20mt crane s to 400m t active heave comp ensati on (AHC ) crane vessel s, used for deepw ater subse a field develo pmen t. As a result , these vessel s are often used in a range of marke ts from geote chnica l survey ing, to constr uction , IRM and even suppo rt servic es. Multi purp ose Supp ort Vesse ls (MSV ) DSVs are charac terise d as having satura tion diving capab ility. Increa singly, these vessel s are being equip ped with larger crane capac ities to enable them to work in deepe r water s. Simila r to MSVs , these vessel s are used in a variet y of marke ts. Howe ver, DSVs are typica lly not suited to geote chnica l & geoph ysical work. Dive Supp ort Vesse ls (DSV ) Light Well Interv ention vessel s are define d by the prese nce of a wirelin e mast and subse a lubric ator system which allows access to subse a wells to perfor m remed ial or produ ction enhan ceme nt work. Altho ugh riserle ss interv ention is curren tly lim- ited to shallo w water s, these vessel s tend to be high end units capab le of provid ing constr uc- tion suppo rt and IRM servic es in deepw ater. Light Well Inter venti on (LWI V) Three metho ds of pipe laying are used – Reel-l ay, S-lay and J-lay. Each laying techn ique requir es a specia list vessel equip ped for the purpo se. Large r vessel s are also capab le of install ing rigid pipe as well as flexibl e. Pipe Lay Flexla y vessel s are used to install flexibl e lines such as flowlin es, umbil icals and risers – but are not suitab le for rigid lines. A flexlay system mainly consis ts of a vertic al ramp equip ped with a numb er of tensio ners and a chute or whee l on top. Cable & Flex- Lay Main Mark ets Serve d Main Mark ets Serve d Main Mark ets Serve d Main Mark ets Serve d Main Mark ets Serve d IRM (ROV work ) Field Deve lopm ent (depe ndent on crane capac ity) Pipelay support IRM (ROV & Dive work ) Field Deve lopm ent (depe ndent on crane capac ity) Pipelay support IRM (ROV & Dive work ) Field Deve lopm ent (depe ndent on crane capac ity) Well interv entio n servic es. Flowlines (Flex) Risers (Flex) Umbilicals Offsh ore Wind Farm Cable s IRM (ROV & Dive work ) Field Deve lopm ent (depe ndent on crane capac ity) Flowlines (Flex & Rigid) Risers Umbilicals IRM (ROV & Dive work ) Field Deve lopm ent (depe ndent on crane capac ity) © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 13 World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 By purch asing this docum ent, your organ isation agree s that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circula ted in any form any of the contents without the writte n permission of Douglas-W estwo od Subsea Focus Areas Chapter 2 : Drivers and Indicators Speci ficatio n requi reme nts of subse a vesse ls are largely deter mined by a comb inatio n of water depth and metaocean conditions . Mark ets with harsh sea states such as the North Sea will typically need high- end assets with excel lent powe r rating and statio n keeping. Deep water mark ets such as Africa or Brazil will requi re larger vesse ls with high crane and top-tensio ning capab ility. Shallo w water, benig n regions such as Asia and the Middle East typically favou r less comp lex vesse ls. However, increasing custo mer prefe rence for reliab ility and operational efficie ncy is drivin g chang e in these regional fleets . Nort h Ame rica The North American market is focus ed on the GoM which is comp rised of a very large and mature shallo w water segm ent and ultra- deep water segm ent. Sea states are typica lly benig n but harsh durin g the hurric ane seaso n which lasts from June to Nove mber . 2,101 16% 1,060m Benign Latin Ame rica Latin American subse a activity is domi - nated by Brazil throu gh state-own ed oil comp any Petro bras. Brazil alone will ac- count for 16% of globa l tree installation s over the next five years , 94% of these will be in ultra- deep water. 2,140 19% 1,200m Medium Afric a As a part of the deepwater ‘Gold en Triangle’, Africa is a major subse a market. Histo rically , subse a activity has been focus ed in the Gulf of Guinea. However, East Africa is expected to become one of the world ’s prom inent grow th markets over the next decad e. Subse a activities are domi nated by IOCs . 3,478 25% 931m Benign Aust ralia The market is a major subse a grow th provi nce with a subst antial backlog of major gas expo rt proje cts. Simila r to the North Sea, the operating environme nt is relatively shallo w but challe nged by harsh weather. 682 6% 429m Mediu m/ Harsh Nort h Sea Traditionally, the North Sea is shallo w water with 62% of trees installed in water depth <250 m over the past five years . Extre me metaocean conditions neces- sitate high specificatio n vesse ls. 3,289 10% 200m Harsh Asia Asia is a very large, predo minat ely shallo w water market. Activities are curre ntly fo- cused on Bay of Bengal, Java Sea, Celeb es Sea and South China Sea. Altho ugh the market is curre ntly focused on shallo w water IRM activities. 910 9% 480m Benig n/ Mediu m Key 2011- 2015 Avera ge subse a produ ction kboe/ d Typica l metoc eancondi tions Avera ge tree water depth as of 2015 2011- 2015 % Subse a tree popul ation Figure 7: Subse a Focus Areas Protracted Supply Overhang & a Gradual Recovery in Subsea Vessel Operations Spend Low hydrocarbon prices, coupled with excessive newbuilding programmes will result in low utilisation impacting day rates and overall expenditure over the forecast period. However, with eventual recovery at the end of the forecast period, subsea vessel demand is set to grow at a 5.2% CAGR over the next five years. Global subsea vessel operations expenditure is expected to increase by 29% when compared to the preceding five-year period, totalling $97.7 billion (bn) from 2016 to 2020. Africa, Latin America and North America are expected to account for 47.5% of global expenditure between 2016 and 2020. These regions remain vital to subsea vessel demand over the forecast period despite falling oil prices, project delays and political instability associ- ated with Africa. The development of East African gas basins in the Indian Ocean will contribute to subsea vessel demand in the latter years of the forecast period. Asia will be the single largest market with an anticipated 18.7% of expenditure over the next five years, largely driven by shallow water inspection repair & mainte- nance (IRM) and pipelay-related activities. Australasia has the fastest growth rate of all of the re- gions at a 46.8% CAGR due to massive offshore gas field developments required to support its ambitious LNG export commitments. Activity in the Middle East will rep- resent 9% of the total global subsea vessel expenditure. Field development (36%) and IRM (40%) will remain the principal drivers of global subsea vessel demand and expenditure. As production in shallow water basins declines, activities in deeper water are set to increase as deepwater development becomes inevi- table. However, operators will continue to invest in the optimisation of existing shallow water fields. The World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 analyses the main factors driving demand for MSV, DSV, Flexlay, LWIV and Pipelay vessels, sup- ported by analysis, insight and industry consultation and includes: • Drivers & indicators – a review of factors influ- encing subsea markets, including; growing global energy demand; continued development of offshore reserves; oil & gas prices; field complex- ity, technology and cost evolution; the role of deepwater and how all of these drivers impact the subsea vessel operations market. • Vessel fleet supply side analysis – global vessel supply trends for DSVs, MSVs, Flexlays, Pipelays and LWIVs with historic vessel deliveries from 1960-2015 and current vessel supply and order- book segmented by vessel type and owner. • Regional analysis – expenditure and vessel day demand by market with trend commentary for Africa, Asia, Australasia, Eastern Europe & FSU, Latin America, Middle East, North America, Norway, UK and Rest of Western Europe.
  • 2. World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020energy business insight e: research@douglaswestwood.com t: +44 (0)203 4799 505 www.douglas-westwood.com Aberdeen | Faversham | Houston | London | Singapore To Order Complete the order form and mail, fax or email us your details. Payment: goods will only be dispatched on receipt of payment in full. A pre-payment invoice will be issued on request. Payment must be made in UK Pounds. Payment may be by a cheque drawn on a UK bank. Credit card owners: give full name and address of the cardholder and telephone number - you will not be billed until dispatch. Copyright: you agree that this report is the copyright of the authors; it is for use only within your own organisation, will not be made available in any form to third parties and will not be copied or transmitted electronically. Multiple copies: special prices are available on request for multiple PDF or hardcopies - please call or email for details. Executive Presentation Service: a PowerPoint-based presentation of the results of this report can be made by our analysts at your company offices for an additional fee. Please contact us for details. Name.........................................................................................Job Title............................................................................... Company.................................................................................................................................................................................. Deliver address....................................................................................................................................................................... Cardholders address............................................................................................................................................................. Card Number..........................................................................CCV number..........................Expiry date........................ Signature...................................................................................Email..................................................................................... Tel no.........................................................................................Fax......................................................................................... EU companies must give an EU VAT number.................................................................................................... Preferred format: Number of Users: PDF * Single User (1 copy) 3650 UK Pounds Hardcopy ** Multi-User (5 copies) 4650 UK Pounds Payment Method: Pre-payment invoice AMEX / MasterCard / Visa Order Form I understand that the study is copyright and for use only within my organisation. It will not be copied, or otherwise circulated to third parties or distributed electronically. (please tick) * VAT will be added when applicable ** Hardcopy deliveries outside the UK will be via DHL couriers at an additional cost of UK Pounds 60 Why purchase the World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast? DW’s market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world’s top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services compa- nies and top-10 private equity firms. The report is essential for financial institutions, vessel owners, equipment manufacturers, offshore engineering, construction, operations & maintenance companies and contractors, E&P operators, oil & gas companies and government agencies & depart- ments wanting to make more informed investment decisions. Our proven approach includes: • Unique and proprietary data – updated year- round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation. • Detailed methodology – the report uses a unique market model specifically developed in collaboration with leading subsea industry participants. Based on the DW's proprietary databases covering vessels and offshore oil and gas developments, the report includes a market forecast with analysis based on unique data. • Comprehensive analysis – expenditure and ves- sel day demand are segmented by field develop- ment, IRM, pipeline and subsea intervention for each region, covering the 2011-2020 period. • Concise report layout – consistent with DW’s commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read’ summaries of key points through- out. ISBN 978-1-910045-24-4 "A great report for gaining market insight" - Shipbroker "The regional analysis is excellent" - Vessel Operator "Gave our team a great understanding of the market" - Subsea Equipment Manufacturer
  • 3. 2016 World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast Prospects, Technologies, World Markets 2016-2020 Courtesy Subsea 7
  • 4. © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 2World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Contents Table of Contents 1 Summary and Conclusions......................................7 Summary......................................................................................................................................... 8 Conclusions.................................................................................................................................... 9 2 Drivers and Indicators........................................... 10 Population, GDP & Energy Demand .......................................................................................11 Evolution of Offshore E&P Industry .......................................................................................12 Subsea Focus Areas ....................................................................................................................13 Oil – Supply & Demand .............................................................................................................14 Oil Price Volatility.......................................................................................................................15 Natural Gas..................................................................................................................................16 Oil & Gas Challenges .................................................................................................................17 3 Definitions and Terminology................................ 18 Offshore Field Lifecycle and Subsea Vessels..........................................................................19 Vessel Types ................................................................................................................................20 Vessel Definitions........................................................................................................................21 Vessel Definitions cont. ............................................................................................................22 Activity by Vessel Type ..............................................................................................................23 4 The Vessel Fleet...................................................... 24 Global Vessel Supply...................................................................................................................25 DSVs – Supply Side Market Trends .........................................................................................27 MSVs – Supply Side Market Trends .........................................................................................28 Flexlays – Supply Side Market Trends.....................................................................................29 Pipelays – Supply Side Market Trends.....................................................................................30 LWIVs – Supply Side Market Trends .......................................................................................31 Day Rate Analysis .......................................................................................................................32 5 The Subsea Vessel Market Forecast................... 33 Model Summary...........................................................................................................................34 Global Market – by Region .......................................................................................................35 Global Market – by Sector........................................................................................................36 Africa – Market Overview & Drivers .....................................................................................37 Africa – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure.........................................................................38 Asia – Market Overview & Drivers.........................................................................................39 Asia – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure ............................................................................40 Australasia – Market Overview & Drivers.............................................................................41 Australasia – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure................................................................42 Eastern Europe & FSU – Market Overview & Drivers........................................................43 Eastern Europe & FSU – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure............................................44 Latin America – Market Overview & Drivers.......................................................................45 Latin America – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure...........................................................46 Middle East – Market Overview & Drivers ...........................................................................47 Middle East – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure...............................................................48 North America – Market Overview & Drivers ....................................................................49 North America – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure........................................................50 Norway – Market Overview & Drivers .................................................................................51 Norway – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure.....................................................................52 UK – Market Overview & Drivers..........................................................................................53 UK – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure..............................................................................54 RoWE – Market Overview & Drivers ....................................................................................55 RoWE – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure........................................................................56 6 Appendix .................................................................. 57 Data and Text Conventions......................................................................................................58
  • 5. © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 3World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Contents Figures Figure 1: Global Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Region 2011-2020 ...........................8 Figure 2: Global Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Sector 2011-2020............................8 Figure 3: Global Population Growth & Energy Demand, 1965-2035...............................................11 Figure 4: OECD and Non-OECD Energy Intensity, 1980-2015e.......................................................11 Figure 5: Onshore vs Offshore Oil & Gas Production, 2005-2021...................................................12 Figure 6: Development Wells by Water Depth (1960–2020).............................................................12 Figure 7: Subsea Focus Areas ...............................................................................................................................13 Figure 8: Oil Price & Demand 1990-2015......................................................................................................14 Figure 9: World Liquids Production Growth 2005-2015 ......................................................................14 Figure 10: Historical Brent and WTI Oil Prices, January 2010 – July 2015....................................15 Figure 11: Brent Annual Average Spot Price Forecasts 2010-2017...................................................15 Figure 12: Levellised Cost of Energy ($/MWh) in 2020..........................................................................16 Figure 13: Natural Gas Prices ($/mmBtu), 2000-2020.............................................................................16 Figure 14: Oil & Gas Production versus E&P Spend 2000-2015e......................................................17 Figure 15: Skilled Workers by Age Category 2014....................................................................................17 Figure 16: Historic Vessel Deliveries by Type 1960-2015.......................................................................25 Figure 17: Active Global Fleet by Type ...........................................................................................................26 Figure 18: Book-to-Fleet by Vessel Type..........................................................................................................26 Figure 19: 2015 vs. 2014 Day Rate Range......................................................................................................32 Figure 20: Global Vessel Operations Expenditure by Region ..............................................................35 Figure 21: Global Vessel Operations Expenditure by Sector................................................................36 Figure 22: Global Expenditure by Sector, 2011-2015 and 2016-2020............................................36 Figure 23: Africa – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres).........................................37 Figure 24: Africa – Expenditure by Market.....................................................................................................38 Figure 25: Asia – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres) ............................................39 Figure 26: Asia – Expenditure by Market........................................................................................................40 Figure 27: Australasia – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres) ..............................41 Figure 28: Australasia – Expenditure by Market ..........................................................................................42 Figure 29: Eastern Europe & FSU – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres) .....43 Figure 30: Eastern Europe & FSU – Expenditure by Market.................................................................44 Figure 31: Latin America – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres)........................45 Figure 32: Latin America – Expenditure by Market ...................................................................................46 Figure 33: Middle East – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres).............................47 Figure 34: Middle East – Expenditure by Market ........................................................................................48 Figure 35: North America – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres).....................49 Figure 36: North America – Expenditure by Market ................................................................................50 Figure 37: Norway – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres)....................................51 Figure 38: Norway – Expenditure by Market................................................................................................52 Figure 39: UK – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres)...............................................53 Figure 40: UK – Expenditure by Market ..........................................................................................................54 Figure 41: RoWE – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres).......................................55 Figure 42: RoWE – Expenditure by Market...................................................................................................56
  • 6. © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 4World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Contents Tables Table 1: Vessel Type Definitions............................................................................................................................21 Table 2: LWIV Definitions........................................................................................................................................22 Table 3: Vessel Activity by Vessel Type .............................................................................................................23 Table 4: Vessel Summaries by Type.....................................................................................................................26 Table 5: DSV Leading Vessel Owner 2015.....................................................................................................27 Table 6: MSV Leading Vessel Owner 2015.....................................................................................................28 Table 7: Flexlay Leading Vessel Owner 2015 ................................................................................................29 Table 8: Pipelay Leading Vessel Owner 2015................................................................................................30 Table 9: LWIV Leading Vessel Owner 2015...................................................................................................31 Table 10: Global Vessel Operations Expenditure by Region ...............................................................35 Table 11: Global Expenditure by Sector..........................................................................................................36 Table 12: Africa – Key Infrastructure..................................................................................................................37 Table 13: Africa – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market.....................................................38 Table 14: Asia – Key Infrastructure .....................................................................................................................39 Table 15: Asia – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market........................................................40 Table 16: Australasia – Key Infrastructure .......................................................................................................41 Table 17: Australasia – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market ..........................................42 Table 18: Eastern Europe & FSU – Key Infrastructure..............................................................................43 Table 19: Eastern Europe & FSU – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market.................44 Table 20: Latin America – Key Infrastructure.................................................................................................45 Table 21: Latin America – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market ...................................46 Table 22: Middle East – Key Infrastructure......................................................................................................47 Table 23: Middle East – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market.........................................48 Table 24: North America – Key Infrastructure..............................................................................................49 Table 25: North America – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market ................................50 Table 26: Norway – Key Infrastructure.............................................................................................................51 Table 27: Norway – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market................................................52 Table 28: UK – Key Infrastructure........................................................................................................................53 Table 29: UK – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market...........................................................54 Table 30: RoWE – Key Infrastructure................................................................................................................55 Table 31: RoWE – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market...................................................56
  • 7. © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 5World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Notes & Acknowledgements About Us Disclaimer This report is a Douglas-Westwood (DW) study and all rights are reserved, whether this pertains to the body of the report or any information contained within. The information contained in this document is believed to be accurate, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Douglas-West- wood as to the completeness, accuracy or fairness of any information contained in it, and we do not accept any responsibility in relation to such information whether fact, opinion or conclusion that the reader may draw. The views expressed are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent those of the publisher. While we have made every attempt to ensure the information contained in this document has been obtained from reliable sources, Douglas-Westwood is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results obtained from the use of this information. All informa- tion in this document is provided “as is”, with no guarantee of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including, but not limited to warranties of performance, mer- chantability and fitness for a particular purpose. Nothing herein shall to any extent substitute for the independent investigations and the sound technical and business judgment of the reader. Laws and regulations are continually changing, and can be interpreted only in light of particular factual situations. World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast is published by: Douglas-Westwood Limited, 20 East Street Faversham Kent ME13 8AS, UK tel: +44 203 4799 505 fax: +44 1795 594748 admin@douglaswestwood.com © Copyright Douglas-Westwood Limited 2015 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of the publishers. Additional copies of this study may be purchased at a specially discounted rate. DW report number 574-16 ISBN978-1-910045-24-4 Production Team Editor Steve Robertson sr@douglaswestwood.com Assistant Editor(s) Thom Payne tp@douglaswestwood.com Hannah Lewendon hl@douglaswestwood.com Report Author Mark Adeosun ma@douglaswestwood.com Layout & Graphic Design Oliver Solly os@douglaswestwood.com
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