Global Weekly News 20180129-0202

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Economy & Finance

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0610_GW_上傳版V1.pdf

Collaborator

【Junior 國金_2023 年原油供需及價格走勢分析】全球原油供給端以美國跟 OPEC 為主，需求端則以美國、中國、印度為主，其中 OPEC 為全球最大的原油輸出組織，2021 年總生產量約佔全球的 35.3%。原油庫存變化與其價格走勢高度連動且呈負相關，每當原油供過於求而導致庫存堆積時，油價即可能面臨跌價壓力。原油供給方面，OPEC+ 多數成員國同意在 5 月進行自願性減產並達全年低點，俄羅斯則宣布在今年 3 至 6 月每日減產 50 萬桶石油至 9.5 mb/d，美國原油供給則受鑽井數量影響，預估隨著油商資本支出增加，將帶動美國原油產量。原油需求方面，美國市場預計因汽車、航空業仍未回復至疫情前水準且工業端疲軟，而導致整體需求不佳，中國市場則預計在解封後與政府積極刺激經濟下，使航空、交通運輸、零售銷售、第二產業投資等原油需求端回升，推升中國整體需求。整體而言，預估 2023 年原油供給為 102.1 mb/d，將大於原油需求 99.6 mb/d，原油價格將下跌。這期我們來看看 Collaborator Junior 陳盈錡、楊皇遠、陳彥晴、楊智翔、榮宗元，是如何分析 2023 年原油供需及價格走勢的吧！

國金＿石油＿0429 .pdf

Collaborator

【Global Weekly News 2023/5/29~ 2023/6/4】本週美國參議院順利通過提高債務上限法案，避免出現美債違約危機，美國總統拜登表示會盡速簽署法案。而歐洲部分，歐元區 5 月 CPI 年增 6.1%，低於上月的 7%，為 2022 年 2 月以來最低，月增 0%，核心 CPI 年增 5.3% ，降溫主因是食品、酒精與菸草價格漲勢放緩、能源通膨也繼續降溫。至於亞洲地區，日本 4 月失業率降至 2.6％，失業人數較上月減少 15 萬人，三個月來首降。而中國 5 月製造業採購經理人指數為 48.8，連續第二個處於萎縮區間，並寫下去年 12 月以來最低紀錄，成為疫後經濟復甦動能減弱的最新徵兆。本週還有哪些政經要聞和產業新聞值得我們持續關注呢？就讓我們看看由 Collaborator Intern：曾子宸、薛浩瑞、陳炤寧、曾筠婷、周郁容整理的 Global Weekly 吧！ #Collaborator #Global_Weekly #HJ編

GW_0603_修改完.pdf

Collaborator

【Intern Event_L'Oréal 收購 Aesop 事件分析】今年 4 月初 L'Oréal 宣布以 25 億美元成功收購 Natura & Co 旗下 Aesop，預計此併購案將在今年 Q3 生效。 Natura & Co 過去 15 個月股價下跌嚴重，債務償還年數也從 2021 Q4 的 1.52 倍一路到 2022 Q4 的 3.5 倍，營收表現十分不佳，因而出售 Aesop 填補資金漏洞，以及削減自身債務。而 L'Oréal 收購 Aesop 有幾大因素，其中，隨著近年市場香氛需求大幅增加，L'Oreal 陸續收購精品香氛如 Prada、Muglar，香氛的銷售額比重逐年增加，而 Aesop 香氛銷售額成長速度快速，因此收購 Aesop 使L'Oréal在小眾與無性別的香氛市場取得優勢，以開發不同客源。而除了擴大香氛版圖外，還有哪些因素使 L'Oréal 收購 Aesop ? L'Oréal 收購 Aesop 事件分析中，還有什麼值得關注的重點呢？就讓Collaborator Intern：藍于軒、楊念臻、黃筠凱、許瑋恒、任君汶，帶我們一探究竟吧！ #Collaborator #Intern_Event #HJ編

4_29 GWE 萊雅收購Aesop_final.pdf

Collaborator

【Junior 新趨勢_基因重組膠原蛋白】膠原蛋白為人體重要蛋白質，由 19 種不同的胺基酸組成，是人體內含量最多的蛋白質、種類繁多，並可以在細胞、組織重建與修復過程中發揮重要作用，包括維持皮膚彈性、避免骨骼疏鬆脆弱、保護內臟、傷口止血等。膠原蛋白可分為動物提取及基因重組兩大製程，動物源膠原蛋白雖為市場主流，但具原材料與保存方式限制，且存在著免疫排斥和過敏的風險；目前重組膠原蛋白已達到技術突破，且具有多項特點使其可達到規模化生產，預期未來發展家且中長期終端價格有望下降。需求端部分，膠原蛋白依終端可分為醫美注射、醫用敷料、功效性護膚品、功能保健食品四大應用場景，其中外用產品的滲透率將仰賴於消費者教育以消除認知誤解，醫美注射則受惠於中國醫美市場的高成長性。預計重組膠原蛋白將於 2027 年拿下中國 62.8% 膠原蛋白市場，並在三大美容應用有著 CAGR 26.1%~56.8% 的成長性。基因重組膠原蛋白還有什麼是我們需要注意的呢？一起來看看 Collaborator 的 Junior 們：楊鎮維、陶亮吟、林政賢、莊翰旻、劉東萌、羅以耀，詳細整理的基因重組膠原蛋白報告吧！ #Collaborator #Collaborator_Junior新趨勢 #FX編

Colla_0513_新趨勢.pdf

Collaborator

【Global Weekly News 2023/5/22~ 2023/5/28】本週美國公布 4 月核心 PCE 物價指數，月增 0.4 %，高於預期的 0.3 %，年增 4.7 %，高於預期的 4.6 %，為 2023 年 1 月以來新高。主因為服務、糧食與貨品價格上漲。而歐洲部分，歐元區 5 月綜合 PMI 初值由 4 月的 54.1 降至 53.3，改寫三個月新低，其中服務業 PMI 由 56.2 略降至 55.9，創二個月低點，製造業由 45.8 降至 44.6 ，改寫 36 個月低點。至於亞洲地區，日本 5 月製造業採購經理人指數（PMI）初值，經季節調整由 4 月終值的 49.5 升至 50.8，為去年 10 月以來首度升到 50 以上的擴張水平。而日本 5 月排除生鮮食品的東京核心 CPI 年增 3.2%，低於 4 月的 3.5%，反映出電價和天然氣的價格下跌，但東京核心 CPI 仍高於央行目標水平。本週還有哪些政經要聞和產業新聞值得我們持續關注呢？就讓我們看看由 Collaborator Intern：藍于軒、林嘉瑄、簡丞劭、蔡博獻、任君汶整理的 Global Weekly 吧！ #Collaborator #Global_Weekly #HJ編

0527 GW.pdf

Collaborator

【Junior 新趨勢_頭戴式裝置】元宇宙關鍵技術包括 VR (Virtual Reality) 虛擬實境以及 AR (Augmented Reality) 擴增實境，更在多種技術延伸下出現 MR(Mixed Reality) 混合實境與 XR(X-Reality or Extended Reality) 延展實境，並可將 AR/VR 的商業模式分為軟體及服務面和硬體面。軟體及服務方面，頭戴式裝置目前應用以 VR 為主，不同廠商的商業模式與訂閱方案皆有所不同，而在 AR/MR 的發展則尚未成熟，預計未來將廣泛應用於 B&C；硬體方面，頭戴式裝置成本以晶片、螢幕占比最大，主流處理器有由高通獨大朝向多家競爭發展的局勢，而 GPU 及人工智慧算法則為硬體技術的突破關鍵，市場上也出現多項新興技術。未來發展方面，頭戴式裝置在軟體部分面臨著技術障礙問題，硬體部分則因單一設備價格過高而銷量不如預期，使用者回饋更出現五感體驗不足、沉浸式體驗差等狀況。雖然目前頭戴式裝置仍以遊戲應用為主，但預計未來可藉由 AR/MR 技術發展拓展至其他應用。頭戴式裝置還有什麼是我們需要注意的呢？一起來看看 Collaborator 的 Junior 們：楊鎮維、陶亮吟、林政賢、莊翰旻、劉東萌、羅以耀，詳細整理的頭戴式裝置報告吧！ #Collaborator #Collaborator_Junior新趨勢 #FX編

colla_0422_新趨勢.pdf

Collaborator

【Junior 國金_疫情解封後中國的經濟展望】中國官方在 2022 年 12 月宣布放棄動態清零的防疫政策，外界期待能解放國內需求帶動中國經濟復甦，從政府預期來看，中國政府目標今年 GDP 年增為 5%，相較過去目標保守。從解封後的 1-2 月的中國經濟現況來看，消費及房地產活動略有回溫，PMI 也大幅度走升，突破 50 榮枯線，服務業生產年增率更由負轉正，但進出口表現仍然疲弱，工業生產回升也不如預期。通膨部分，2 月 CPI 雖不如預期但可能是受今年農曆新年較早開始的影響。政府政策方面，中國信貸擴張及房市稍微回暖，中國貸款市場報價利率 (LPR) 已連續八個月不變；財政政策方面，政府以提升經濟為目標，將提升 2023 財政赤字率至 3%；房市政策方面，以中央、地方政策為導向，現階段景氣仍低迷。未來展望方面，預計娛樂消費將於今年大幅回升，年初汽車消費雖不濟，但全年銷量仍具小幅成長，房市與基建因利多政策發酵回溫，將帶動 GDP 消費與投資成長；通膨方面，能源部分將提升年底 CPI 年增率，食品部分影響則減弱，預計整體 CPI 將於下半年達到高點。那麼疫情解封後中國的經濟展望的後續又會如何呢？這期我們來看看 Collaborator Junior 陳盈錡、楊皇遠、陳彥晴、楊智翔、榮宗元，是如何分析疫情解封後中國的經濟展望的吧！ #Collaborator #Collaborator_Junior國金 #FX編

0408_國金＿疫情解封後中國的經濟展望.pdf

Collaborator

【Junior 產業_導線架】導線架主要功能為乘載晶片，並提供傳導路徑，將內部集中訊號分散傳遞至外部。導線架可依應用領域分為 IC 導線架與 LED 導線架，其中導線架類型又可再分為 IC 模組式與分離元件式。導線架製程部份，則可依技術分為沖壓式與蝕刻式兩種。供給方面，IC 導線架的原料主要以銅合金為主，佔比達 80%，其餘則為鐵鎳、化學液、塑膠等原料，而 LED 導線架也主要以銅合金、鎳鐵合金經沖壓成形後再電鍍處理而成，因此導線架廠的毛利受銅價波動影響大，部分廠商藉由自產銅合金的方式以穩定毛利率。需求方面，IC 導線架因 5G、工控等應用未來持續向上發展，有利帶動導線架需求，車用領域則受惠於功率元件用量倍數；LED 導線架主要應用為照明產品這一成熟市場，但隨著智慧車燈的應用普及化，本研究預估 LED 車燈未來需求將高於全球車市成長。導線架產業還有什麼是我們需要注意的呢？一起來看看 Collaborator 的 Junior 們：黃湘潔、彭耀增、吳灃軒、黃沛琪、劉定，詳細整理的產業報告吧！ #Collaborator #Collaborator_Junior產業 #FX編

產業導線架.pdf

Collaborator

【Global Weekly News 2023/5/15~ 2023/5/21】本週美國公布4 月零售銷售額月增率 0.4％，低於預測值 0.8%；整體來看，美國 4 月零售年增率依舊呈現放緩趨勢，主要仰賴非耐久財等服務消費支撐。而歐洲部分，歐元區公布 4 月份 CPI 年增率為 7.0%，月增 0.1%，通膨愈發頑固，基礎物價成長有所放緩，但服務業的通膨成長仍在加速，加大的薪資壓力可能會使通膨高於 ECB 的 2% 目標。至於亞洲地區，中國 4 月 CPI 年增率0.1%，漲幅和緩，4月份核心 CPI 年增0.7%，主要壓力來自進入高基期的食物和能源通膨，以及復甦緩慢的商品消費需求。而中國 4 月失業率 5.2%、較前值下降 0.1%。16至24歲城鎮調查失業率達20.4%，創史上新高，顯現疫情衝擊經濟影響就業機會緊縮的情況。本週還有哪些政經要聞和產業新聞值得我們持續關注呢？就讓我們看看由 Collaborator Intern：陳姮羽、黃耀霆、鄧媺頤、周郁容、程歆雅整理的 Global Weekly 吧！ #Collaborator #Global_Weekly #HJ編

【0520_GW】.pdf

Collaborator

【Intern Event_從美國對 TikTok 禁令看 TikTok的應對及未來發展】 TikTok 在美國為最大的短影音平台，活躍用戶 ( MAU ) 達 1.5 億人，為美國用戶使用時間最高的社群軟體，此外，美國亦是 TikTok 最大海外市場，佔公司總營收 18%。 TikTok 因用戶資料安全性的問題，引發美方對其實施禁令。然而，美國在於過往未有明確對社群軟體資訊安全的法規，因此，在限制 TikTok 運營業務上困難重重，目前正加速通過對 TikTok 業務限制的法案，但可能牴觸憲法言論自由。針對美國禁令，TikTok 積極與美國提出德克薩斯計畫 ( Project Texas )，然而，德克薩斯計畫目前仍然不被美國信任，且可能不被採納，其在可行性及細部的規則都遭到美國質疑。而 TikTok 在計畫失敗後將可能往哪些市場開發、TikTok 可能做出的應對策略為何? 從美國對 TikTok 禁令看 TikTok的應對及未來發展中，還有什麼值得關注的重點呢？就讓 Collaborator Intern：蔡博獻、闕湧軒、陳炤寧、簡丞劭、薛浩瑞，帶我們一探究竟吧！ #Collaborator #Intern_Event #HJ編

0422_Event_final.pdf

Collaborator

Junior 國金_日本未來貨幣政策走向】雨宮正佳意外拒絕接任日本央行行長，並由植田和男意外接任，植田和男過去曾擔任央行政策顧問，主要專注於學界而無特定立場，可預期植田和男領軍的央行新團隊較原先黑田東彥團隊來得中立，但整體仍偏向鴿派。日本央行於 12 月利率會議超出預期地將 YCC 控制區間放寬至正負 0.5 %，作為市場長期避險工具的日圓價格反應劇烈，但於 1 月利率會議時，前央行行長黑田東彥又意外維持原有寬鬆政策，與市場預期不符。預期日本在內需型通膨目標仍遙遠、國內薪資成長趨勢尚不明確的前提下，新行長植田和男將持續維持超寬鬆政策，然而日本債市的流動性與市場失能問題，可能將導致後續 YCC 控制政策的正常化。那麼日本央行政策的後續展望又會如何呢？這期我們來看看 Collaborator Junior 黃沛琪、楊鎮維、劉定、莊翰旻、吳灃軒、陶亮吟，是如何分析日本未來貨幣政策走向的吧！ #Collaborator #Collaborator_Junior國金 #FX編

日本央行貨幣政策.pdf

Collaborator

【Intern Event_AT1 債券——瑞信危機的啟示】 Coco Bond為巴塞爾協定下發展而來的一種金融工具，目的在強化銀行的資本結構和風險管理。對銀行來說，Coco Bond讓銀行擁有更大的資本緩沖、避免納稅人必須買單的情況，也不用被迫發行新股，避免遭質疑過度杠桿；而對投資人來說，CoCo Bond 的虧損機制相較普通債券更具風險，被視為增厚收益的投資工具。 AT1 額外一級資本債券，屬於CoCo Bond的一種，主要由銀行發行，為可計入銀行監管資本的次順位債券。對銀行來說，發行AT1債券，可達到籌資目的且不影響EPS；而對投資人來說，穩定且無期限的高收益投資標的，因發行方多是投資等級以上的歐洲銀行。在瑞士信貸過後，瑞信AT1 全數被歸零，歐洲各大銀行的CoCo 債券遭到拋售，價格走勢一路走跌。不過，近期Coco Bond 價格已回升至瑞信危機前水平，因AT1 價格下跌，平均收益率來到16.3%，相對於現在債券市場平均到期收益率8.3%，吸引投資者進入市場。而AT1 債券——瑞信危機的啟示，還有什麼值得關注的重點呢？就讓Collaborator Intern：許嘉城、林嘉瑄、程歆雅、黃微茹、陳姮羽，帶我們一探究竟吧！ #Collaborator #Event #HJ編

統整0415 Event_v1.pdf

Collaborator

【Global Weekly News 2023/5/8~ 2023/5/14】本週美國公布 4 月 CPI，月增 0.4％，符合市場預期，增幅主要來自能源與二手車；而美國勞工部也公布，截至 5/6 當週，初次申請失業救濟金人數共計 26.4 萬，與前值相比增加了 2.2 萬人，為 2021 年 10 月以來最高水平，顯示科技和銀行等行業的裁員影響越來越大。而歐洲部分，英國 2023 年前 3 月的 GDP 初值季增 0.1%，符合預期；而英銀貨幣政策委員會則將利率上調 1 碼至 4.25% ，創下 2008 年以來最高點，連續 11 度宣布升息。至於亞洲地區，中國 4 月 CPI 年升 0.1%，寫下兩年來最小升幅， PPI 則年降 3.6%，顯示中國內需疲弱與大宗商品成本下跌的影響；而日本 4 月服務業 PMI 終值由 3 月的 55 升至 55.4，高於初值 54.9 且連七個月高於榮枯線 50，這顯示出防疫解封提振消費支出。本週還有哪些政經要聞和產業新聞值得我們持續關注呢？就讓我們看看由 Collaborator Intern：巫信霈、江依庭、黃微茹、許嘉城、曾筠婷整理的 Global Weekly 吧！ #Collaborator #Global_Weekly #HJ編

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【Junior 個股_美時】美時為台灣知名學名藥廠，其產品線涵蓋抗癌藥、減肥藥、中樞神經用藥等，並以錠劑、膠囊為主，近年持續透過自行開發、授權合作、收購等方式壯大營運規模。我們認為美時可以買進的原因有三點： 1. 美時以 Lenalidomide 切入總額約 100 億美金的血癌藥品市場，且產品毛利率高達 90%，在遞增的市占率下營收將飛躍成長。 2. 多項新藥將在亞洲各國陸續上市，藥品潛在市場規模超過百億元，預估注入 2023 年營收約 12 億元。 3. 其他未上市產品潛在市場規模大，其中三種藥品極可能於 2025、2026 年上市，將貢獻 40 億以上營收，成為另一大成長動能。基於以上三點，預估美時 2023 年營收 YoY 24.19%，EPS 16.65元。美時還有什麼是我們需要注意的呢？一起來看看 Collaborator 的 Junior 們：陳盈錡、楊智翔、林政賢、劉東萌、羅以耀，詳細整理的個股報告吧！ #Collaborator #Collaborator_Junior產業 #FX編

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