This presentation by Walther E. Baethgen asks and answers some of the most important questions concerning climate change: Adaptation to What? What Can We Expect? What Mitigation options are likely to succeed? Also it presents many interesting scenarios all related to climate change: for example how it would affect socioeconomics and vice versa.

1. Finding Synergies Between Adapting To Climate Change and Mitigation
Climate Information
for
Mitigation and Adaptation
Walter E. Baethgen
Head, Regional and Sectorial Research Program
IRI, The Earth Institute, Columbia University
Walter E. Baethgen 2013

2. Planning, Decision Making, Policy Making
Adaptation to What?
What Can We Expect?
What Mitigation options
are likely to succeed?
(REDD+, NAMAs, CDM)
Information on Future Climate
Walter E. Baethgen 2013

3. Future Climate Scenarios: Using Climate Models (GCMs)
Complex models that simulate physical processes in the atmosphere, oceans and land
Models are getting better
Walter E. Baethgen 2013

4. Anomalies (mm/month)
Climate Models: Simulating Past Observed Climate
Example: SE South America SONDJF
IPCC Model Range and Mean
Walter E. Baethgen 2013

5. Anomalies (mm/month)
Climate Models: Simulating Past Observed Climate
Example: SE South America SONDJF
Observed
IPCC Model Range and Mean
Walter E. Baethgen 2013

6. Future Climate Scenarios: Using Climate Models (GCMs)
1.
Great advances in science,
but still lots to understand:
Uncertainties due to Models
2.
Key Input:
GHG Emissions
Assumptions:
(e.g., in 2080-2100)
Technologies?
Energy Sources?
Deforestation rates?
Population?
Uncertainties
(IPCC Scenarios)
Walter E. Baethgen 2013

7. Future Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios
1000
900
CO2 ppm
800
A1B
A1F
700
A2
600
B1
500
B2
400
300
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
CO2 atmospheric
concentration for
different
development options
Walter E. Baethgen 2013
In AR5: Radiative Forcing Values
(similar assumptions)
Source: IPCC, 2001

8. Expected Global Temperature
For Different Socioeconomic Scenarios
(Reference: 1986 – 2005)
Uncertainty
Source: IPCC, 2013 (Draft)
Walter E. Baethgen 2013

9. For Precipitation Uncertainties are Much Larger
Example in East Africa: 90% of the Climate Models agree it will become wetter
Individual Model Runs and Averages
+25%
-10%
East Africa
All scenarios
have equal
chances
This is for large “Windows”
At Local level Uncertainties are much larger
Walter E. Baethgen 2013
Giannini et al., 2007

10. Conclusion: Climate Change Scenarios are Uncertain
IPCC’s objective was not to create scenarios for impact assessment
However: Published articles with Crop Yield Projections
2020
Percent change in Crop Yields
for one climate change scenario
PROBLEM:
This is easily understood
Can be “erroneously” believed
Maladaptation / “Malmitigation”
2050
2080
Walter E. Baethgen 2013
Uncertainty?

11. Climate Change Scenarios and Decision Makers:
Decision Makers (including Policy Makers):
Pressure to act on immediate to short-term problems
Scientific Community: Scenarios for 2080, 2100
Great for Public Awareness, but CC is a problem of the FUTURE
CC scenarios: Uncertainty at regional / local level is large
Result:
CC is often not in the policy agendas, planning
Walter E. Baethgen 2013

12. We Need New Approaches:
1. Different Temporal Scales of Climate Variability
Sahel: Annual Precipitation
Annual Precipitation over the Sahel
700
650
Observed
Interannual Variability
290mm from one year to next
600
Rainfall (mm)
550
55%
500
Decadal Variability
250mm in 20 years
450
400
“Climate Change”
180mm in 100 years
350
300
250
Most of the world:
65% - 20% - 15%
Int - Dec - CC
200
1900
1920
1940
1960
Walter E. Baethgen 2013
1980
2000
27%
18%

13. Initial Thoughts
Scenarios based exclusively on Climate Models are uncertain
(worse for precipitation, worse at regional, even worse at local)
Scenarios focusing only in “trends” (Climate Change) miss critical
Information on Climate Variability that can affect Adaptation
and Mitigation efforts (e.g., Interannual, Decadal Variability)
The majority of the total climate variability is found in the
Interannual temporal scale (60-80%)
Walter E. Baethgen 2013

14. A Complementary Approach to “Traditional” Climate Change:
Climate Risk Management
Climate Change is a problem of the PRESENT (happening already)
as opposed to a problem of the FUTURE
Some of the most damaging impacts of Climate Change are expected to be
due to increased Climate Variability (droughts, floods, fires, storms)
Start by improving adaptation to current climate variability
Mitigation options should be planned for the “long term”, but one large
event (e.g., fire) may destroy all the efforts (i.e., consider interannual
variability, climate risks)
Future Climate: Work in “Near-term” Climate Change (i.e., 10-30 years)
-Establish a range of plausible future climate scenarios (with Decadal and Interannual)
-Connect to Models: Crops, Carbon, Forestry (MITIGATION and ADAPTATION)
-Identify interventions with highest chances of success
Walter E. Baethgen 2013

15. Final Comments
Climate Risk Management and Adaptation to Climate Change
•Improve Adaptation to Future Climate starting by Improving Adaptation to TODAY’S Climate
•Adapt with flexibility: range of plausible climates  interventions most likely to succeed
Climate Risk Management and Mitigation of Climate Change
•Mitigation efforts are also subject to Climate related Risks
•Long-term Mitigation efforts can be hampered by short-term climate variability
•Mitigate with flexibility: range of plausible climates  interventions most likely to succeed
Science-based Resources to Inform Policy
•Integrate Climate Information into Decision Support Systems, considering Uncertainties
Understandable and Actionable!
Walter E. Baethgen 2013

16. Thank you
Walter E. Baethgen
Head, Regional and Sectorial Research Program
Leader, Latina America and Caribbean
IRI, The Earth Institute at Columbia University
Tel: (845) 680-4459
email:
Internet:
baethgen@iri.columbia.edu
http://iri.columbia.edu/
Walter E. Baethgen 2013