This document discusses improving adaptation to climate change in Uruguay's agricultural sector. It notes the uncertainties in climate change projections and argues for a climate risk management approach focused on adapting to current climate variability. Uruguay's National Agricultural Information System provides climate information and decision support tools to help farmers and policymakers adapt flexibly to a range of possible future climate conditions. The system assists with crop forecasts, technology assessments, and sustainability evaluations. It represents a partnership between international organizations and Uruguay's national institutes to respond to stakeholders' needs.

1. Improving adaptation to climate change
for sustainable development
in the agricultural sector of Uruguay:
The National Agricultural
Information System
Walter E. Baethgen
Director, Climate Services Program
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
The Earth Institute at Columbia University, New York
W.E.Baethgen 2012

2. Adapt to What?
Climate Change Scenarios: Using Climate Models (GCMs)
Complex models that simulate physical processes in the atmosphere, oceans and land
1. Great advances in science,
but still lots to understand:
Limitations of the Models
2. Key Input:
GHG Emissions
Assumptions:
(e.g., in 2080-2100)
Technologies?
Energy Sources?
Deforestation rates?
Population?
Uncertainties
(IPCC Scenarios)
W.E.Baethgen 2012

3. Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios
1000
900
800
A1B
CO2 ppm
700 A1F
A2
600 B1
500 B2
400
300
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
CO2 atmospheric
concentration for
different
development options
In AR5: Radiative Forcing Values
(similar assumptions)
Fuente: IPCC, 2001
W.E.Baethgen 2012

4. Global Temperature
For Diffrerent Socioeconomic Scenarios
Uncertainty
Source: IPCC, 2007 At regional or local levels Uncertainty is much larger
W.E.Baethgen 2012

5. Precipitation Projections for 2090-2099
Precipitation in DJF
For Rainfall uncertainties are much larger
IPCC, 2007
W.E.Baethgen 2012

6. Decisions are made at Local (Regional) Level
At Regional level Uncertainties are larger
(Individual Model Runs and Averages)
East Africa
Giannini et al., 2007, IRI
This is for large “Windows”
At Local Level Uncertainties are much larger
W.E.Baethgen 2012

7. • Conclusion: Climate Change Scenarios are Uncertain
• IPCC’s objective was not to create scenarios for impact assessment
However: Published articles with Crop Yield as if Information was Perfect
Projections for 2020, 2050, 2080
Percent change in Crop Yields
2020 for one climate change scenario
(one model)
DANGER:
2050
This is easily understandable
Can be “erroneously” believed
Can Lead to “Maladaptation”
2080
W.E.Baethgen 2012 Uncertainty?

8. Climate Change Scenarios and Decision Makers:
Decision Makers (including Policy Makers):
Pressure to act on immediate to short-term problems
Scientific Community: Climate Scenarios for 2080, 2100
Great for Public Awareness, but CC is a problem of the FUTURE
CC scenarios: Uncertainty at regional / local level is huge
Result:
Adaptation to CC is often not in the policy agendas
Can it be incorporated into Planning, Development?
W.E.Baethgen 2012

9. A Different Approach for Adaptation Climate Change:
Climate Risk Management
Climate Change is a problem of the PRESENT (happening already)
as opposed to a problem of the FUTURE
Some of the most damaging impacts of Climate Change are expected to be
due to increased Climate Variability (damaging/extreme events: droughts, floods).
Learning to cope with Current Climate Variability will lead to Less
Vulnerable Societies Today that will be better prepared to Adapt to
possible conditions of Future Climate
With this approach, actions are needed at a time scale that is relevant for Policy Makers
Work in Possible Ranges of “Near-term” Climate Change (i.e., 10-30 years):
Adapt with Flexibility
(we do not have, and will not have “perfect information” on future climate)
W.E.Baethgen 2012

10. Conceptual Framework (1):
Gap between Science and Applications, Society
1. Decision-makers approach problems
holistically and often intuitively
2. Science traditional reductionist approach:
Create ‘islands of knowledge in a sea of ignorance’
(Meinke et al., 2007; 2009)
Need to Integrate Scientific Information
into Decision Frameworks: How?
W.E.Baethgen 2012

11. URUGUAY: DACC, SNIA = Climate Risk Management Approach and Tools
(Applied Systems Analysis Approach)
Information and
DECISION
SUPPORT
SYSTEMS
W.E.Baethgen 2012

12. CLIMATE
INFORMATION
REMOTE
SENSING
EXISTING
DATABASES Tra
SIMULATION
MODELS
“Traffic light”
“Traffic light”
colors
colors
GIS
Easily Understandable: Inform Decisions, Planning (Country, Region or Farm)
IRI is working with CCAFS and NARs:
• Improving Adaptation to Current Climate Variability
• Improving Crop Yield forecasts (Food Security)
Excellent example of Partnership CGIAR - ARI - NARI
W.E.Baethgen 2012

13. Uruguay’s National Agricultural Information System
Crop Production Outlooks (Food Security) with CCAFS (CGIAR)
Assess feasibility of Agricultural Technologies (e.g., irrigation)
Assess Sustainability of Production Systems (e.g., land use)
Assist DACC Project in Sustainability of Investments in Farms
Evaluate modalities of Agricutlural Insurance (e.g., Weather Index)
Establish Early Warning and Early Response Systems (e.g., Drought)
For Current Climate and for a Range of Plausible Climate
Conditions in the Future (Adapt with Flexibility)
W.E.Baethgen 2012

14. Final Comments
Improving adaptation to climate change in the agricultural sector of Uruguay:
Fundamentally Focussed in Improving Adaptation to Today’s Climate and to a
range of Plausible Future Climate Conditions (Adapt with Flexibility).
DACC Project: loan from The World Bank (Inter-American Bank)
May affect how we start approaching Adaptation to Climate Change
in the world (linked to Development, to Actions Today and Near Future, to Risk
Management)
DACC Project is an excellent example of CGIAR (CCAFS) partnering with other
International Institutes (IRI) and National Institutes (INIA, Min. Agr., University)
to respond to demand of public and private stakeholders
W.E.Baethgen 2012

15. Thank you
Walter E. Baethgen
Director, Latin America and Caribbean Program (LAC)
IRI, The Earth Institute at Columbia University
Columbia University, New York
email: baethgen@iri.columbia.edu
Internet: http://iri.columbia.edu/
W.E.Baethgen 2012