Csig future of phone a-friend 20150724 v5
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By 2035 people are symbiotic with cognitive mediators. Cognitive Systems Institute Group (CSIG) and the evolution of phone-a-friend/expert service. From 1955 to 2055. Cognitive mediators will boost the creativity and productivity of people.
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Csig future of phone a-friend 20150724 v5
- 1. Cognitive Systems Institute Group (CSIG): The Future of “Phone-a-Friend” Join Weekly Calls: http://cognitive-science.info/community/weekly-update/ Join Weekly Discussion: https://www.linkedin.com/grp/home?gid=6729452 Jim Spohrer, IBM Director, Global University Programs (GUP) and Cognitive Systems Institute Group (CSIG) CSIG Overview, Friday July 24, 2015 http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/csig-future-of-phone-a-friend-20150724-v5 7/24/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM UPward - University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 1
- 2. Questions come up. Answers matter. 7/24/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 2
- 3. When Phone-a-Friend doesn’t help… 7/24/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 3 CSIG 2 x 2 Don’t Know You Know You Know Solution Expert Cognitive Mediator Don’t Know Solution Stranger/Tired Self Mom
- 4. 7/24/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 4 Try Phone- an-Expert
- 5. 7/24/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 5 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 Evolution of “Phone-a-Friend/Expert” service
- 6. What exists in 2015? 7/24/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 6 360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000
- 7. What might $1000 buy in 2035/2055? 7/24/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 7 2035 2055
- 8. 7/24/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 8 Smart Service System: All entities’ in network use cognitive mediators to enhance value co-creation interactions Cognitive Mediators: Cognitive systems with deep knowledge of both customer (user) and provider (expert) as co-creators of win-win value Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions
- 9. CSIG Mission • Cognitive mediators for all roles/occupations in smart service systems. – Why would anyone want this? Who cares? – How hard is this and how long will it take? – Is there a list of all occupations? Does it change? – What is a cognitive mediator? Cognitive scientist? – What is a smart service system? Service scientist? – What could possibly go wrong? 7/24/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 9
- 10. What could possibly go wrong? 7/24/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 10
- 11. 7/24/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 11
- 12. 7/24/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 12
- 13. Sciences provide… • Frameworks for people to ask and answer questions systematically • Explanations with instructions on “how to re-do” 7/24/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 13 Kline: Conceptual Foundation of Multidisciplinary Thinking - “To our children and children’s children, to whom we elders owe an explanation of the world that is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.” Proenneke: Alone in the Wilderness - To do a thorough testing, should each generation be required to rapidly rebuild from scratch? A re-makers movement?
- 14. 7/24/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 14 Explain external phenomena
- 15. 7/24/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 15 Explain internal phenomena
- 16. 7/24/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 16 Explain value co-creation phenomena
- 17. 7/24/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 17 Physics Chemistry Biology Neuroscience Psychology Artificial Intelligence Engineering Management Public Policy Education Design Humanities Natural Systems Cognitive Systems Service Systems
- 18. Many questions & much work remains… • For what purpose? – Define capabilities and responsibilities – Balance challenge and routine – Avoid too much anxiety and too much boredom • What are future jobs? – Who would hire? – What do they do? • Why is O*NET missing? – Cognitive scientist – Service scientist – Data scientist 7/24/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 18
- 19. In Summary 7/24/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 19 “A service science perspective considers the evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation and capability co-elevation interactions, and their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities.” Cognitive Systems Entities Service Systems Entities With Cognitive Mediators Add Rights & Responsibilities
- 20. Assisting individuals and organizations to close their service innovation skills gap and co-create smarter service systems empowering employees, customers, citizens with cognitive mediators in the collaborative service economy
- 21. 7/24/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 21
Editor's Notes
- In this talk, the Cognitive Systems Institute Group (CSIG) is introduced – you can join weekly calls and weekly discussion if you find this of interest to you. ISSIP.org has weekly CSIG COI (Community of Interest) calls with the goal of improving the development of cognitive assistants for all occupations. Cognitive Systems Institute Group (CSIG) Join Calls: http://cognitive-science.info/community/weekly-update/ Join Discussion: https://www.linkedin.com/grp/home?gid=6729452 Reference: Spohrer, J (2015) Welcome to IBM Research - Almaden. San Jose, CA USA. , Thursday July 23, 2015. URL http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/csig-future-of-phone-a-friend-20150724-v5
- In real life, typically only one of these is really an option – phone a friend. Perhaps Google-ing for the answer is “Poll the Audience” – or using your iPhone to ask Siri. Image sources: http://allthingsd.com/20120420/rim-id-like-to-use-a-lifeline-and-call-jp-morgan/ http://funnyjunk.com/He+used+a+lifeline+on+this/funny-pictures/5523548/ http://genius.com/9238
- How to help someone? Yes, it helps to know them well, but it is also helps to be an expert in that kind of helping or service. Cognitive mediators can do their job best if they know the person they are helping well, and also have deep expertise in that kind of service. Source: http://previously.tv/television/free-jimmys-mother/
- O*NET Online is the occupation network online, started by the US Dept of Labor in the 1990’s – it now represents one of the most comprehensive lists of occupations along with a great deal of information about each occupation, including skills, tasks, certifications, demand for these jobs, etc. O*NET lists about 1000 occupations from Accountants to Zoologists – and many job families in between. O*NET updates the descriptions of the occupations as well as adding new occupations over time. Source: http://www.onetonline.org/find/family?f=0
- Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important – the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world – consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine. However, over the years phones got much better…. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?
- The second hint – check out how many companies are working on cognitive assistants – and each month a new company shows up working on their version of an intelligent personal assistant. Make no mistake, like “magnetism” – the company the can first provide all its employees with intelligent personal assistants/cognitvie assistants will have done something quite historic! Prediction 1 – more than half of the Forbes Global 2000, and equally many new startups, will have cognitive assistant projects for their customers within ten years Prediction 2 – by 2035 we will be symbiotic with our cognitive assistants Prediction 3 – by 2055 (in part due to the coaching of our cognitive coaches) an average adult will have the ability to rapidly rebuild from scratch societal infrastructure Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligent_personal_assistant
- The first hint to who are you going to call in 2035 and 2055 is provided by this chart. Yes, by 2035 and by 2055, we are projected to have unimaginably large amounts of chapr computing…. 2035 one brain, and by 2055 all human brains (10 billion people). Based on Kurweil’s graph of how much compute power $1000 will buy, it seems that by 2030, for $1000 you should be able to buy the compute power of one person’s brain, and that by 2060 for $1000 you should be able to buy the computer power of 10***10, or 10B people, the compute power of the world’s population for $1000. Source: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html Was Moore’s Law inevitable? http://kk.org/thetechnium/was-moores-law/
- Images Sources: http://www.preventionjustice.org/potent-partnerships-networks-of-people-living-with-hiv/
- This slides states the CSIG Mission (“Cognitive mediators for all roles/occupations in smart service systems”) and lists some of the most common questions related to the the CSIG mission statement.
- What could possibly go wrong? Smart technologies make us dumber. Funny, he failed a test of trust, because he could not remember his wife’s cell phone number….. Image Source: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-smart-technology-can-make-us-dumb/
- What could possibly go wrong? Social technology makes us less social. Image Source: https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/1d/eb/5c/1deb5c1cf49a5dbb7689131f3cc8b9a9.jpg
- One solution is hard medicine – make sure someone can do something for themselves before doing it for them…. Image sources: http://www.raidz3ro.com/isaac-asimovs-three-laws-of-robotics-t-shirt.html http://cdn-media-2.lifehack.org/wp-content/files/2013/04/It-is-not-what-you-do-for-your-children-but-what-you-have-taught-them-to-do-for-themselves-that-will-make-them-successful-human-beings..jpg
- These concerns about what could possibly go wrong with cognitive mediators are real, so how can science help provide answers to help us make good choices in creating our future? Image sources: http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51oBLyAHXzL._SX327_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg Alone in the Wilderness (1968) – Dick Proenneke - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYJKd0rkKss
- Which is more important to explain external phenomena or internal phenomena? Physics is the science that helps us understand the the external world – across many scales. Picture of star formation https://www.bnl.gov/science/physics.php
- Which is more important to explain external phenomena or internal phenomena? Cognitive science, including brain science, neuroscience, psychology and other areas, is the study of the internal world. Artificial intelligence is the science and engineering discipline trying to build smart machines – or what we at IBM call cognitive systems. Cognitive assistants are cognitive systems with capabilities of natural language, learning, and levels (of confidence) in recommendations to people trying to use them to make decisions, and some cognitive assistants have more than 3 L’s, they also have a 4th L – limbs – those cognitive assistants are robots. Picture of physics and the brain... http://medimoon.com/2014/04/drayson-foundation-donation-to-tackle-the-girls-in-physics-conundrum/
- However, at the end of the day, even with more creative and productive people…. With the 2035 symbiosis of people and their cognitive assistants, we are left trying to explain external phenomena and internal phenomena, as well as to create possible future worlds… The natural sciences of course include physics, chemistry, and biology. The cogntive science are not as well understood, but people are increasing aware of neuroscience (brain science), psychology, and artificial intelligence – which inform cognitive science. Finally, the least understood and newest is service science. Service science is the study of the evolving ecology of service sytem entities with capabilities, contraints, rights, and responsibilities – but also importantly with imagination! The humanities and fiction are a great source of possible future worlds. We just have to design and edcuate the next generation to engineer, manage, and set in place public policy that allows us to realize possible future worlds that we would like to live in. Source: Regis Lemmes http://www.slideshare.net/SalesCubes/sales-cocreation-35336385
- Much work remains … many unanswered quetion Image Sources: http://static01.nyt.com/images/2015/07/05/magazine/05onmoney1/05mag-05onmoney-t_CA0-master675.jpg