Norway frontiers 20160624 v3
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Industry 4.0, digital transformation, service transformation, service innovation, cyberphysical systems
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Norway frontiers 20160624 v3
- 1. Jim Spohrer (IBM) Bergen, Norway – Frontiers in Service, Conference Friday June 24,, 2016 http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/norway-frontiers-20160624-v3 6/23/2016 1 Industry 4.0: A Digital Service Transformation
- 2. What is Industry 4.0? 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 2
- 3. History of the idea: Mirror Worlds 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 3
- 4. 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 4 Why is this relevant?
- 5. I am still very skeptical… but tell me more…. 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 5
- 6. 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 6
- 7. Managers: Courage Required…. 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 7
- 8. Talent required, but… 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 8
- 9. Industry 4.0 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 9
- 10. CyberPhysical Systems? 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 10
- 11. Industry 4.0 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 11
- 12. 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 12
- 13. 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 13
- 14. Yesterday: Servitization • Rolls Royce: “Power By The Hour”
- 15. Tomorrow: Servitization • Start with any traditional product that is sold to customers • Make the product part of a smart/wise service system – Instrument it (sensors) – Internet of Things/Everything – Set-up an intelligent operation center to monitor all products’ performance across their life-cycles – Use big data analytics to determine how to improve product performance, efficiency, maintenance, etc. – Offer customer the “product-performance-as-a-service” with financing/Internet of Service – Customer benefits from cost-savings, predictability – Provider benefits margin-improvements, predictability • Every product becomes a platform technology (a vehicle for service innovation) for innovative university startups
- 16. Vision: MMaaRRSS • Modular Manufacturing as a Regional Recirculation Service System – “I am the stuff that will be made into product X for customer Y.” – Stuff = Material, Energy, and Information Flows – Minimize transport costs (for products and waste) • The Vision: Circular Economy (~4 minutes)
- 17. Assisting individuals and organizations to close their service innovation skills gap and co-create wiser service systems empowering employees, customers, citizens with cognitive mediators in the collaborative service economy
- 18. 6/23/2016 18 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 Can better service help us be wiser? Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach
- 19. “The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better” Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing Energy Construction ICT Retail Finance Healthcare Education Government
- 20. 6/23/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 20
- 21. 6/23/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 21 I have… Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?
- 22. Learning to program: My first program 6/23/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 22 Early Computer Science Class: Watson Center at Columbia 1945 Jim Spohrer’s First Program 1972
- 23. 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 23 Fast Forward 2016: Consider this…
- 24. Microsoft CaptionBot June 19, 2016 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 24
- 25. Microsoft CaptionBot June 20, 2016 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 25
- 26. IBM Image Tagging 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 26
- 27. IBM Cloud Bluemix: Watson APIs are growing… 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 27 So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access
- 28. Culture change 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 28
- 29. But this stuff is still really hard… 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 29
- 30. $5M Prize: for best AI to help us on societal grand challenge problems 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 30
- 31. Societal Grand Challenges 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 31 Solving these would mean we are smarter, but would they mean we are wiser?
- 32. Two assertions • Machines seem to be getting smarter fast. – Agree/disagree? • People do not seem to be getting wiser fast. – Agree/disagree? 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 32
- 33. 6/23/2016 33 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 Can better service help us be wiser? Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach
- 34. What exists in 2016? 6/23/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 34 360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000
- 35. Reality 2.0 Service Platform: polite cognitive mediators (CM1,CM2) do not interrupt people (P1,P2) 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 35 Service Platform CM2 P2 CM1 P1 100x 100x 100x
- 36. By 2035, T-Shaped Makers with great Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators 6/23/2016 36 Empathy & Teamwork sector region/culture discipline Depth Breadth STEM Liberal Arts
- 37. 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 37
- 38. 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 38 What might Reality 2.0 look like?
- 39. 6/23/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 39
- 40. 6/23/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 40
- 41. How fast is Reality 2.0 approaching? 6/23/2016 41 What might it look like?
- 42. Computing: Then, Now, Projected 6/23/2016 42 2035 2055
- 43. 6/23/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 43 Wise Service System: All entities’ in network use cognitive mediators to enhance value co-creation interactions Cognitive Mediators: Cognitive systems with deep knowledge of both customer (user) and provider (expert) as co-creators of win-win value Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions
- 44. 6/23/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 44 Cognitive Mediators for all people in all roles
- 45. Occupations = Many Tasks 6/23/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 45
- 46. Watson Discovery Advisor 6/23/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 46 Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014. URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/
- 47. User Models 6/23/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 47
- 48. Courses 2015 – “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.” – 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy – 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject 2025 – “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.” – Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week 2035 – “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.” – Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day – Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves 2055 – “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.” – Most people have 100 digital workers. 6/23/2016 48
- 49. “The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better” Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing Energy Construction ICT Retail Finance Healthcare Education Government
- 50. In Summary 6/23/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 50 “A service science perspective considers the evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation and capability co-elevation interactions, and their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities.” Cognitive Systems Entities Service Systems Entities With Cognitive Mediators Add Rights & Responsibilities
- 51. Future-Ready T-Shapes 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 51
- 52. IBM Research, Patents, Data, Cognitive 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 52
- 53. 6/23/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 53 Explain external phenomena
- 54. 6/23/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 54 Explain internal phenomena
- 55. 6/23/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 55 Explain value co-creation phenomena
- 56. 6/23/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 56 Physics Chemistry Biology Neuroscience Psychology Artificial Intelligence Engineering Management Public Policy Education Design Humanities Natural Systems Cognitive Systems Service Systems
- 57. Brief History of AI 1956 – Dartmouth Conference 1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds 1981 – Japanese 5th Generation 1988 – Expert Systems Peak 1990 – AI Winter 1997 – Deep Blue 1997 – 2011 Real-World 2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI 2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute 2014 – Watson Business Unit & True North Brain Chip 2015 – “Cognition as a Service” on IBM Bluemix 6/23/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 57
- 58. Cognitive Assistants for all occupations are beginning to appear 6/23/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 58
- 59. Sciences provide… • Frameworks for people to ask and answer questions systematically • Explanations with instructions on “how to re-do” 6/23/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 59 Kline: Conceptual Foundation of Multidisciplinary Thinking - “To our children and children’s children, to whom we elders owe an explanation of the world that is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.” Proenneke: Alone in the Wilderness - To do a thorough testing, should each generation be required to rapidly rebuild from scratch? A re-makers movement?
- 60. The Maker Movement & Open Source Ecology 6/23/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 60
- 61. Dedication: Doug Engelbart Father of the mouse and augmentation theory 6/23/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 61
- 62. 6/23/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 62 Future of Skills
- 63. 6/23/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 63
- 64. T-Shaped “Future Ready” Talent 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 64
- 65. 6/23/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 65 CSIG
Editor's Notes
- For permission to reuse – contact spohrer@us.ibm.com Reference: Spohrer, J (2016) Industry 4.0 & Service Transformation. Frontiers in Service Conference. Bergen, Norway. June 24, 2016. URL http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/norway-bergen-20160624-v3
- 4th is a cyber-physcial systems.
- We are talking about the Frontiers of Service here – and Roland has long predicted information and service converge in some hard to imagine way…
- The 50% of taxi cab drivers that are scared of driverless cars can only think about skillset. The 50% of tax cab drivers that are not scared of driveless cars are all over mindset…
- The key is to think of everything in term of the data/information associated with it across it complete life-cycle form cradle-to-cradle, and redo the business model to benefit provider-customer-and-other stakeholders Changing the Dominant Logic: http://blog.egonl.com/?m=200902 Rolls Royce: http://www.economist.com/node/18073351
- The Circular Economy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCRKvDyyHmI
- The weakest link is what needs to be improved – according to system scientists. Accessing help, service, experts is the weakest link in most systems. By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain – by 2055 the phone may have the power of all human brains. Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important – the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world – consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine. However, over the years phones got much better…. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?
- By 2036, there will be an accumulation of knowledge as well as a distribution of knowledge in service systems globally. We need to ensure as there is knowledge accumulation that service systems at all scale become more resilient. Leading to the capability of rapid rebuilding of service systems across scales, by T-shaped people who understand how to rapidly rebuild – knowledge has been chunked, modularized, and put into networks that support rapid rebuilding.
- Today’s talk will explore two questions What should we know how to make? What might programming education become? If we look at history we see a time when people could make only simple things, and often a single person could make them. Would it ever be possible for a single person to know and make complex things? And what role might programming education play? Will the cognitive era – the coming era of smart machines – make people more capable or less capable to know and make complex things?
- In the 1940’s IBM started teaching computer science at Columbia. My first program – punch cards 1972.
- If you ask some very smart people, what are societal grand challenges – what will they tell you?
- The weakest link is what needs to be improved – according to system scientists. Accessing help, service, experts is the weakest link in most systems. By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain – by 2055 the phone may have the power of all human brains. Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important – the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world – consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine. However, over the years phones got much better…. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?
- Many intelligent assistants or cognitive assistants are beginning to appear. (the numbers indicate approximate number of employees at each companuy). More and more companies are working on cognitive assistants – and each month a new company shows up working on their version of an intelligent personal assistant. Make no mistake, like “magnetism” – the company the can first provide all its employees with intelligent personal assistants/cognitvie assistants will have done something quite historic! Prediction 1 – more than half of the Forbes Global 2000, and equally many new startups, will have cognitive assistant projects for their customers within ten years Prediction 2 – by 2035 we will be symbiotic with our cognitive assistants Prediction 3 – by 2055 (in part due to the coaching of our cognitive coaches) an average adult will have the ability to rapidly rebuild from scratch societal infrastructure Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligent_personal_assistant
- CM1 to CM2 “Once they stop talking about the weather, do you think we should let them know together they could potentially cure cancer?”
- Source: http://tsummit.org
- Modha’s Brain - Goal 1KW and 2 Litres…. Dharmendra Modha and his design for a brain chip playing pong: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQ3HEVelBFY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqeINGOzIZo https://twitter.com/dharmendramodha/status/545693986149511168
- Source URL: Mother Jones - http://www.motherjones.com/media/2013/05/robots-artificial-intelligence-jobs-automation
- If Moore’s Law continues, by 2035 and by 2055, we are projected to have unimaginably large amounts of cheap computing…. 2035 one human brain level, and by 2055 all human brains level(10 billion people). Based on Kurweil’s graph of how much compute power $1000 will buy, it seems that by 2030, for $1000 you should be able to buy the compute power of one person’s brain, and that by 2060 for $1000 you should be able to buy the computer power of 10***10, or 10B people, the compute power of the world’s population for $1000. Source: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html Was Moore’s Law inevitable? http://kk.org/thetechnium/was-moores-law/
- Images Sources: http://www.preventionjustice.org/potent-partnerships-networks-of-people-living-with-hiv/
- O*NET Online is the occupation network online, started by the US Dept of Labor in the 1990’s – it now represents one of the most comprehensive lists of occupations along with a great deal of information about each occupation, including skills, tasks, certifications, demand for these jobs, etc. O*NET lists about 1000 occupations from Accountants to Zoologists – and many job families in between. O*NET updates the descriptions of the occupations as well as adding new occupations over time. Source: http://www.onetonline.org/find/family?f=0
- Here is what I tell students.... ... to try to provoke their thinking about the cognitive era: (0) 2015 - about 9 months to build a formative Q&A system - 40% accuracy; - another 1-2 years and a team of 10-20, can get it to 90% accuracy, by reducing the scope ("sorry that question is out of scope") - today's systems can only answer questions, if the answers are already existing in the text explicitly - debater is an example of where we would like to get to though in 5 years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g59PJxbGhY - more about the ambitions at http://cognitive-science.info (1) 2025: Watson will be able to rapidly ingest just about any textbooks and produce a Q&A system - the Q&A system will rival C-grade (average) student performance on questions (2) 2035 - above, but rivals C-level (average) faculty performance on questions (3) 2035 - an exascale of compute power costs about $1000 - an exascale is the equivalent compute of one person's brain power (at 20W power) (4) 2035 - nearly everyone has a cognitive mediator that knows them in many ways better than they know themselves - memory of all health information, memory of everyone you have ever interacted with, executive assistant, personal coach, process and memory aid, etc. (5) 2055 - nearly everyone has 100 cognitive assistants that "work for them" - better management of your cognitive assistant workforce is a course taught at university In 2015, we are at the beginning of the beginning or the cognitive era... In 2025, we will be middle of beginning... easy to generate average student level performance on questions in textbook.... In 2035, we will be end of beginning (one brain power equivalent)... easy to generate average faculty level performance on questions in textbook.... http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-ubi-learn-20151103-v2 By 2055, roughly 2x 20 year generations out, the cognitive era will be in full force. Cellphones will likely become body suits - with burst-mode super-strength and super-safety features: Suits - body suit cell phones Cognitive Mediators will read everything for us, and relate the information to us - and what we know and our goals. Think combined personal coach, executive assistant, personal research team.... The key is knowing which problem to work on next - see this long video for the answer - energy, water, food, wellness - and note especially the wellness suit at the end: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY7f1t9y9a0&index=10&list=WL Do not be put off by the beginning of the video - it is a bit over hyped and trivial, to say the leasat... but the projects are really good if you have the patience to watch.
- By 2036, there will be an accumulation of knowledge as well as a distribution of knowledge in service systems globally. We need to ensure as there is knowledge accumulation that service systems at all scale become more resilient. Leading to the capability of rapid rebuilding of service systems across scales, by T-shaped people who understand how to rapidly rebuild – knowledge has been chunked, modularized, and put into networks that support rapid rebuilding.
- Which is more important to explain external phenomena or internal phenomena? Physics is the science that helps us understand the the external world – across many scales. Picture of star formation https://www.bnl.gov/science/physics.php
- Which is more important to explain external phenomena or internal phenomena? Cognitive science, including brain science, neuroscience, psychology and other areas, is the study of the internal world. Artificial intelligence is the science and engineering discipline trying to build smart machines – or what we at IBM call cognitive systems. Cognitive assistants are cognitive systems with capabilities of natural language, learning, and levels (of confidence) in recommendations to people trying to use them to make decisions, and some cognitive assistants have more than 3 L’s, they also have a 4th L – limbs – those cognitive assistants are robots. Picture of physics and the brain... http://medimoon.com/2014/04/drayson-foundation-donation-to-tackle-the-girls-in-physics-conundrum/
- However, at the end of the day, even with more creative and productive people…. With the 2035 symbiosis of people and their cognitive assistants, we are left trying to explain external phenomena and internal phenomena, as well as to create possible future worlds… The natural sciences of course include physics, chemistry, and biology. The cogntive science are not as well understood, but people are increasing aware of neuroscience (brain science), psychology, and artificial intelligence – which inform cognitive science. Finally, the least understood and newest is service science. Service science is the study of the evolving ecology of service sytem entities with capabilities, contraints, rights, and responsibilities – but also importantly with imagination! The humanities and fiction are a great source of possible future worlds. We just have to design and edcuate the next generation to engineer, manage, and set in place public policy that allows us to realize possible future worlds that we would like to live in. Source: Regis Lemmes http://www.slideshare.net/SalesCubes/sales-cocreation-35336385
- These concerns about what could possibly go wrong with cognitive mediators are real, so how can science help provide answers to help us make good choices in creating our future? Image sources: http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51oBLyAHXzL._SX327_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg Alone in the Wilderness (1968) – Dick Proenneke - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYJKd0rkKss
- Open Source Ecology is one branch of the Makers Movement with the goal of making it easier for individual to make the industrial machines most needed in civilization… “Open Source Blueprints for Civilization. Build Yourself. We’re developing open source industrial machines that can be made for a fraction of commercial costs, and sharing our designs online for free. The goal of Open Source Ecology is to create an open source economy – an efficient economy which increases innovation by open collaboration. “ Source: http://opensourceecology.org/
- One of my heroes and mentors – Doug Engelbart (1925-2013) Doug and I had several conversations about the relationship between augmentation theory and service science. I wish we could have had many more. Before connecting augmentation theory to service science, I have to travel through some technical areas that are closer to my first two degrees physics at MIT and artificial intelligence at Yale university – but I promise you, I will connect this to service science and smarter service system research agenda….
- Obvious things to do….. With the mission of cognitive assistants for all occupations in smart service systems. http://www.cognitive-science.info https://www.linkedin.com/groups/Cognitive-Systems-Institute-6729452