「21世紀、世界の人口構造変化と日本」

1. Ryuichi Kaneko
Population Changes of the World and Japan
in the 21st Century
2From: Joseph A. McFalls, Jr. Population: A Lively Introduction. Third edition. Population Reference Bureau 53(3); 1998: 38
Historical development of the World population

2. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400
1872
34.8 mil
1721
31.3 mil
1600
12.3 mil
800
5.51 mil
1280
5.95 mil
2100
49.6 mil
2110
42.9 mil
Low variant
High variant
3
Historical development of the population in Japan
Source: -1846: Kito(2000), 1847-1870: Morita(1944), 1872-1919: Statistics Bureau, 1920-2010: Census, 2011-2110: National Institute of
Population and Social Security Research(2012), Population Projection for Japan:2011-2060.
2010
128 million
2060
86.7 mil
Tokugawa era
Year
Population(million)
?
4
1961
Universal pension
health insurance
2000
Nursing care
insurance law
Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Statistics Bureau, Census, National Institute of Population and Social Security
Research(2012), Population Projection for Japan:2011-2060.
2010
128 million
Trends of Japan's population and age structure:
1880 - 2110
130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100

3. 5
World population by major region : 1950-2050
Sources: United Nations (2015), World Population Prospects: The 2014 Revision. Statistics Bureau, Census, National Institute of Population and Social
Security Research(2012), Population Projection for Japan:2011-2060.
Population(inbillion)
Year
3.2 %
10
1.9 %
United Nations (2011), World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision.
17
1.0 %
6

4. Japan
7
Sources: United Nations (2015), World Population Prospects: The 2014 Revision. Statistics Bureau, Census, National Institute of Population and Social
Security Research(2012), Population Projection for Japan:2011-2060.
Trends of China's population and age structure:
1950 - 2100
Projection
Elderly
Working age
Children
China
Japan
8
Sources: United Nations (2015), World Population Prospects: The 2014 Revision. Statistics Bureau, Census, National Institute of Population and Social
Security Research(2012), Population Projection for Japan:2011-2060.
Trends of India's population and age structure:
1950 - 2100
Projection
Elderly
Working age
Children
India

5. 2100
9
Relative population sizes,
when population in 2015 = 100
2100
39.0 %
Trends of relative population size (100 in 2015) of the world countries:
1950 - 2100
ProjectionEstimation
Italy
Korea Japan(IPSS)
Japan(UN)
Germany
Year
Relativepopulationsize(P2015=100)
Sources: United Nations (2015), World Population Prospects: The 2014 Revision. Statistics Bureau, Census, National Institute of Population and Social
Security Research(2012), Population Projection for Japan:2011-2060.
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
United Nations (2009), World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision.
2010 2050
10

6. Sources: United Nations (2015), World Population Prospects: The 2014 Revision. Statistics Bureau, Census, National Institute of Population and Social
Security Research(2012), Population Projection for Japan:2011-2060.
11
Trends of proportion elderly (%) of the world countries:
1950 - 2100
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
International Comparison of the LE and the TFR
12
Countries with population >= 10 million in 2005
Life expectancy
Totalfertilityrate(TFR)
Life expectancy
Totalfertilityrate(TFR)
Japan Japan
Sources: United Nations (2011), World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. Statistics Bureau, Census, National Institute of Population and Social
Security Research(2012), Population Projection for Japan:2011-2060.

7. 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110
13
2100
4,959
2100
10,221
2010
12,806
2050
11,142
2050
9,708
2030
11,662
2030
12,289
2012
24
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
21
14

8. Comparison of the dependency ratio
Some Asian countries
Source: United Nations (2011) World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. NIPSSR (2012), Population Projection for Japan:2010-2060 15
Source: United Nations (2009) World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision. NIPSSR (2006), Population Projection for Japan:2006-2055
2050
1950
2000
Direction of
PBO Waves
2010

9. 2060
47
17
2100
266 thous
Trends of number of birth, death in Japan
2060
467 thous
2030
732 thous
Latest(2013)
1,029,816
Baby boom (1947-49)
Max. 22,696,638 (1949)
2nd Baby boom (1971-74)
Max: 22,091,983 (1973)
Death
Peak
2039
1.66 million
Projection
Sources: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, The Vital Statistics, National Institute of Population and Social Security
Research(2012), Population Projection for Japan:2011-2060. (medium variant)
18Source: Esteban Ortiz-Ospina and Max Roser (2016) – ‘World Population Growth’. Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from:
https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth/.
Schematic process of the demographic transition
Death rate
Birth rate

10. 19Source: United Nations, 2015, World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision.
Trajectories of the demographic transition of the world countries
20
Source: United Nations, 2015, World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision.
Latin America
North America
Post DT period
Post modern
regime
Modernization
regime
Pre modern
regime
Life expectancy (year)
Totalfertilityrate
Trajectories of the demographic transition by region of the world

11. 21
Note: Canada, which has remained middle of the two groups. is omitted in the chart to clarify distinction of two groups of fertility levels.
From: Rindfuss,Choe,Brauner-Otto(2016), "The Emergence of Two Distinct Fertility Regimes in Economically Advanced Countries."
Popul.Res.Policy Rev 35:287-304.
TFR’s trends for economically advanced countries:
1981–2012
22

12. Comparison of population pyramids in future 2050
Source: United Nations (2011), World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. NIPSSR(2012), Population Projection for Japan:2011-2060
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
23
Germany Japan
FranceUSA
Male
Male Male
MaleFemale
Female Female
Female
24

13. Schematic chart of DT revised from the experiences in Japan
25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Year
Vitalrate(perthousand)
Crude death rate
Crude birth rate
Rateofnaturalincrease(perthousand)
Rate of natural increase
( see right scale )
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Year
Vitalrate(perthousand)
Crude death rate
Crude birth rate
Rateofnaturalincrease(perthousand)
Rate of natural increase
( see right scale )
Schematic chart of DT revised from the experiences in Japan
26Data sources: Human mortality database
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Population(million)
Year
Total Population

14. 27
28United Nations, International migration report 2015 ( Advance copy ),
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/publications/migrationreport/docs/MigrationReport2015_Highlights.pdf

15. 29
Notes:
“China, Hong Kong SAR” stands for
China, Hong Kong Special Administrative
Region, “Iran” for the Islamic Republic of
Iran, “United Kingdom” for the United
Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern
Ireland and “United States” for United
States of America. ‘‘LAC’’ stands for
Latin America and the Caribbean.
Connecting lines indicate that the ranking
of a country or area changed by five
positions or more.
United Nations, International migration report
2015 ( Advance copy ),
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migrat
ion/publications/migrationreport/docs/MigrationReport20
15_Highlights.pdf
30United Nations, International migration report 2015 ( Advance copy )
2010
2010
2000 2015

16. 31
United Nations, International migration report 2015 ( Advance copy ),
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/publications/migrationreport/docs/MigrationReport2015_Highlights.pdf
32

17. 1960 59.7 41.5 42.9 47.5 9.6 2.9
1990 73.1 47.2 27.0 56.5 16.5 6.6
2010 81.0 52.7 20.9 50.8 28.3 13.6
2030 83.4 57.5 16.8 45.6 37.6 23.3
2050 83.5 60.4 14.3 39.9 45.7 29.1
2060 83.6 61.5 14.2 39.1 46.7 31.7
33
34

18. 35
36
Proportion of women having no child
Sources: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research(2012), Population Projection for Japan:2011-2060.
%
Birth
process
completed
Birth
process
projected
%
Average number
of children
By Cohort

19. 37
Proportion of women having no grand-child
Sources: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research(2012), Population Projection for Japan:2011-2060.
%
Birth process
completed
Birth
process
projected
%
Average number
of grand-children
By Cohort
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105+
( )Female Population
2055
10 thousands
Age
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105+
( )Female Population
2030
10 thousands
Age
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105+
( )Female Population
2005
Female population pyramids composed by family status
38
Increase of women having no spouse, and no child in Japan
10 thousands
Never married
No-child (married)
Sources: Calculated from National Institute of Population and Social Security Research(2008), Population Projection for
Japan:2006-2055.
Age

20. 39
40

21. 41
•
•
•
•
42

22. 2010 2030 2060 24 1
43
2010 2030 2060 24 1 44

23. 45
46

24. Thank you !
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