populacion de el mundo

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
A.D.
2000
A.D.
1000
A.D.
1
1000
B.C.
2000
B.C.
3000
B.C.
4000
B.C.
5000
B.C.
6000
B.C.
7000
B.C.
1+ million
years
8
7
6
5
2
1
4
3
Old
Stone
Age New Stone Age
Bronze
Age
Iron
Age
Middle
Ages
Modern
Age
Black Death —The Plague
9
10
11
12
A.D.
3000
A.D.
4000
A.D.
5000
1800
1900
1950
1975
2000
2100
Future
Billions
Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).
World Population Growth Through History

Ninth
Eighth
Seventh
Sixth
Fifth
Fourth
Third
Second
First Billion
Number of years to add each billion (year)
All of Human History (1800)
130 (1930)
30 (1960)
15 (1975)
12 (1987)
12 (1999)
14 (2013)
14 (2027)
21 (2048)
Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World
Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
World Population Growth, in Billions

Millions
Annual Increase in World Population
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2005
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

Billions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Less Developed Regions
More Developed Regions
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
Growth in More, Less Developed Countries

Trends in Population Growth Worldwide
Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods
80
87
83
79
76 76 75
72
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1980-
1985
1985-
1990
1990-
1995
1995-
2000
2000-
2005
2005-
2010
2010-
2015
2015-
2020
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Net population added per year Annual population growth rate
Millions
Percentincreaseperyear

Notes on Trends in Population Growth Worldwide
• This figure illustrates the lag between changes in the rate of growth and the net increase in
population per year.
• Over the period 1985-1995, the population growth rate declined (a reflection of declining
fertility), yet millions of people were added to the world’s population (which peaked around
1985, when 87 million people were added each year).
• From 2000 on, the growth rate will continue to decline. Between 2015 and 2020, we will still be
adding 72 million people each year. Why? Because the generation of women now having their
children is very large as the result of high fertility in their mothers’ and grandmothers’
generations.

World Population Clock
Natural
Increase per World
More
Developed
Countries
Less
Developed
Countries
Less
Developed
Countries
(less China)
Year 80,794,218 1,234,907 79,559,311 71,906,587
Day 221,354 3,383 217,971 197,004
Minute 154 2 151 137
2005
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

Projected Population Change, by Country
Percent Population Change, 2005-2050

Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Natural
increase
Birth rate
Death rate
Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.
The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition

Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1950-
1955
1955-
1960
1960-
1965
1965-
1970
1970-
1975
1975-
1980
1980-
1985
1985-
1990
1990-
1995
1995-
2000
2000-
2005
Birth rate Death rate
Natural Increase
Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide

• Birth rates and death rates are declining around the world. Overall economic
development, public health programs, and improvements in food production and
distribution, water, and sanitation have led to dramatic declines in death rates. And
women now have fewer children than they did in the 1950s.
• Nevertheless, if death rates are lower than birth rates, populations will still grow.
• Also, it is possible for absolute numbers of births to increase even when birth rates
decline.
Notes on Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide

1.17
1.12
0.94
0.84
1.22
1.24
1.24
1.23
1.23
1.20
Belarus
Bulgaria
Republic of Moldova
Republic of Korea
Slovenia
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Ukraine
China, Hong Kong Special Administrative
Region
China, Macao Special Administrative Region
10 Places With the Lowest Total Fertility Worldwide
Average number of children per woman, 2000-2005

Number of Women 15 to 49
Billions
0.62
0.86
1.32
1.76
1.98
2.06
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Women of Childbearing Age

• The number of women of childbearing age more than doubled between 1950 and
1990: from 620 million to over 1.3 billion.
• Their numbers are expected to reach over 2 billion by the middle of this century,
according to the UN’s medium projections.
• The growing population of women in their childbearing years and their male
partners will contribute to future world population growth, even if levels of
childbearing continue to decline.
Notes on Women of Childbearing Age

Worldwide
0.6
0.9
1.8
2.0 2.0
1.3
0
1
2
3
1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2010-2015 2030-2035 2045-2050
Billions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Childrenperwoman
Women 15 to 49 Average number of children per woman
Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility

• The number of women in their childbearing years has increased since the 1950s and is
projected to continue to increase to 2050.
• The number of children per woman has declined since the 1950s and is projected to
continue to decline.
• Even though women have on average fewer children than their mothers, the absolute
number of babies being born continues to increase because of the increases in the total
number of women of childbearing age.
Notes on Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility

Decline or Growth, 2005-2050
Percent
8
10
13
-23
-11
-6
Russia (1.4)
Italy (1.3)
Trinidad & Tobago (1.6)
Armenia (1.3)
China (1.6)
Country (average number of children per woman)
Population in Countries With Low Fertility
Thailand (1.7)

• All countries shown here have below “replacement level” childbearing—the level
required for population to ultimately stop growing or declining. Yet, half will continue to
grow and half are projected to decline by 2050.
• This disparity is due to the effects of population momentum. In populations with a
young age structure, even if fertility declines sharply, the numbers of children will
continue to increase for a generation as the cohorts of young people pass through their
reproductive years. Consequently, populations will continue to grow for decades even if
fertility is instantly reduced to replacement level. On the other hand, some low-fertility
countries are subject to negative population momentum. Their populations have aged
enough to result in relatively small cohorts under age 30, and therefore even if fertility
were to rise to replacement level, population size would decline for sometime.
Notes on Population in Countries With Low Fertility

Diverging Trends in Fertility Reduction
Average number of children per woman
5.7
5.2
5.4
6.46.4
8.5
5.3
3.3
6.2
3.1
2.4
2.1
4.3
2.5
Egypt India Indonesia Iran Pakistan Turkey Yemen
1970-1975 2000-2005

Patterns of Fertility Decline
0
2
4
6
8
10
1950–1955 1960–1965 1970–1975 1980–1985 1990–1995 2000–2005
Uganda
Kenya
Colombia
South Korea

Reaching Replacement Fertility
5.6
7.0
5.4
6.4
5.7
7.3
1.9 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0
Azerbaijan Chile Iran Mauritius Thailand Tunisia
1960-1965 2000-2005

Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years
49
67
72
76
6565
77
80 82
75
Africa Asia Latin America
and the
Caribbean
More Developed
Regions
World
2000-2005 2045-2050
Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region

• In 2045-2050, infants born around the world can expect to live an average of 75 years
— up ten years from today.
• Africa will experience the largest increase in life expectancy: from 49 years to 65 years.
• Life expectancy varies widely by region. In more developed countries, life expectancy
averages 76 years, compared with only 49 years in Africa.
Notes on Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region

Urban Population
Percent
29
15 17
53
47
37 37
76
55
42
74
85
54
61
82
World Africa Asia Latin America
and the
Caribbean
More
Developed
Regions
1950 2000 2030
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.
Trends in Urbanization, by Region

• Currently, world regions differ greatly in their levels of urbanization. In more developed
regions and in Latin America and the Caribbean, over 70 percent of the population is
urban, whereas in Africa and Asia, under 40 percent of the population is urban. By 2030,
however, the urban proportion of these two regions will exceed 50 percent.
• By 2030, roughly 60 percent of the world’s population will be living in urban areas.
Notes on Trends in Urbanization, by Region

Millions
1950 2000 2015
Largest Cities, Worldwide
8
11 12
17 18
34
21
23
36
London Tokyo New
York
Sao
Paulo
Mexico
City
Tokyo Delhi Mumbai
(Bombay)
Tokyo

• The largest cities in the world are growing rapidly, and they are shifting from the more
developed regions to the less developed regions. In 1950 the three largest cities were in
more developed countries; by 2000, only Tokyo remained in the top three.
• In 1950, New York was the largest city in the world, with a population of about 12 million.
By 2015, the largest city worldwide is projected to be Tokyo, with triple this population size:
36 million.
Notes on Largest Cities, Worldwide

Urbanization in Central America
Population Living in Urban Areas
Percent
39 39
36
29
47 48
64
62
49 49
60 60
Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Panama
1970 2010

Notes on Urbanization in Central America
• Central American countries are urbanizing rapidly, at a pace similar to that of their South
American neighbors 20 years earlier. Sixty percent or more of the population in Costa Rica, El
Salvador, Nicaragua, and Panama is projected to be urban by 2010; the projection for Central
America as a whole is 71 percent.
• South America has nearly the highest rate of urbanization of any world region, projected to
achieve 84 percent by 2010 (virtually tied with Northern Europe).

Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005
Millions
300 100 100 300300 200 100 0 100 200 300
Less Developed
Regions
More Developed
Regions
Male Female Male Female
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Age
Age Distribution of the World’s Population

• Sex and age distributions show that less developed countries have significantly younger
populations than more developed countries.
• Almost one-third of the population in less developed countries is under age 15. In contrast,
less than one-fifth of the population in more developed countries is under 15.
• Today there are more than 2 billion young people below age 20 in less developed regions—the
age cohort that will soon become the world’s newest group of parents.
• Young age structures in the less developed countries are due mainly to higher levels of
childbearing in recent decades.
Notes on Age Distribution of the World’s Population

Trends in Aging, by World Region
Population Ages 65 and Older
Percent
7
3
6 6
14
11
4
10 10
21
World Africa Asia Latin America
and the
Caribbean
More Developed
Regions
2000 2025

Notes on Trends in Aging, by World Region
• By 2025, over 20 percent of the population in more developed regions will be ages 65 and
older.
• By 2025, one-tenth of the world’s population will be over age 65.
• Asia will see the proportion of its elderly population almost double, from about 6 percent in
2000 to 10 percent in 2025. In absolute terms, this represents a stark increase in just 25 years:
from about 216 million to about 480 million older people.

63
54
50
50 46
37
All Ages Ages 60+ Ages 80+
Women Men
Women and Aging
Projected World Population, by Sex, at Specified Age Groups, 2025
Percent
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects:The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

Notes on Women and Aging
• The figure above depicts what demographers refer to as the feminization of aging. Although
women make up half of world population, by the end of the next quarter century, they will
account for more than half (54 percent) of people ages 60 and older, and 63 percent of very old
people (80 and older).

Literacy Rates, by Sex, 2000-2004
Percent
77
53
89
73
55
87
70
91
86
77
World Sub-Saharan
Africa
Latin America
and the
Caribbean
Asia Arab States
Female Male
Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics: accessed online at
www.uis.unesco.org/TEMPLATE/html/Exceltables/education/Literacy_Regional_April2006.xls on May 21, 2006.
Adult Literacy, by Region

• Nearly all men and women in more developed regions can read and write.
• However, literacy rates are lower in the less developed regions. Women’s literacy rates
in particular vary significantly by region: from 53 percent in sub-Saharan Africa, to 73
percent in Asia, to 89 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean.
• Overall, more men than women are literate. This is especially striking in the Arab
states, where more than three-fourths of men but about half of all women are literate.
Notes on Adult Literacy, by Region

0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Africa Asia Latin America and the Caribbean
Note: People 15 to 64 are considered to be workers; people 14 and younger and those over 65 are considered to
be dependents.
Ratio of Workers to Dependents, by Region

0.1
0.2
0.3
1.2
1.5
1.6
2.0
2.3
4.4
5.9
Mali
Cambodia
Bangladesh
Bolivia
Mexico
China
Jordan
U.S.
Greece
Cuba
1997-2004*
Physicians per 1,000 people
Availability of Doctors, Selected Countries
* Data are for the most recent year available for each country.
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2006.

Notes on Availability of Doctors, Selected Countries
• Population growth can affect a country’s capacity to address the health
needs of its people through trained personnel and accessible health facilities.
• Access to health services varies greatly from country to country. In Greece,
for example, there are 4.4 doctors for every 1,000 people.
• This is over 20 times higher than in Cambodia, which has only 0.2 doctors for
every 1,000 people.

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