Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Music 2.0:
Compensation not Control
★ twitter.com/gleonhard

I think I know how you feel
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Music
Industry
Internet

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Yet: you ain’t seen nothing yet!
Global Broadband Penetration
Global Mobile Penetration
Percentage of People with Computers
150%
100%
85%
61% 60%
40%
15%
10%
6%
Today 2-3 years 5-7 years
Cost of Internet Access Cost of Storage Skills Required

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
4 Billion
People
Sharing

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
4 Billion
People
Sharing

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Mediapost, Dec 2008: “In more than five years, the RIAA sued or threatened to sue around 35,000 file-sharers,
including one deceased grandmother, teenagers, and single mothers. The one case that went to a jury trial--a lawsuit
against single mother Jammie Thomas--ultimately resulted in a mistrial.
The RIAA admitted that it spent millions prosecuting cases--far more than it recovered in settlements.
Meanwhile, [U.S.] revenue from sales fell to around $10 billion last year from
more than $14 billion in 1998--the year before Napster launched.
So far, the focus on Controlling
Music Online has not resulted
in solid new revenue streams
for the Creators

The Copyright Dilemma
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Copy

The Copyright Dilemma (2)
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Right

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
You don’t have to be a Futurist to see that the current
concept of forcing people into consuming music in a way
that suits us (the industry) better, will not work.
I think we need to review
our assumptions.

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
So far, Refusal was fruitless -
It’s time to switch to
Permission
Google’s Eric Schmidt (when talking about the book publishers & Google):
“We write large checks when we have a great strategy”

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
A new
Collective License
for the use of
Music on the Internet

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The ‘new’ concept of disconnecting
file-sharing Internet users is not a
It’s...

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The ‘new’ concept of disconnecting
file-sharing Internet users is not a
It’s...

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Brands
Agencies
Content Advertisers
Media
Legislation
Telecom Government
Regulation
Google China President Kai Fu Lee:
“Mutual Interest, rather than Monopoly,
is the key to sustainable growth”

~ Euro 250 Billion
So how would it work?
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Advertisers
“Pool of Social Nets
Money”
Search
Brands
Labels
Publishers
Rights Organizations
Rev Share &
$$$
PROs / MROs
License Fee
per User
Provide
...want to align with
Collective
Artists / Genres
License
Programs / Platforms
Government
& Services to reach
Consumers i.e. Users
ISPs,
Telecoms &
10% of Revenues for On-demand Streams,
Networks
1 Euro / Week / User for downloads (EU)

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
How to get that Euro / Week:
+
Advertising 2.0 / Branding / Sponsorship
Marketing Subsidies by ISPs & Networks +
Device Makers Subsidies +
User Payments +
Bundled with TV & Radio License +
Data Mining Revenues +
++++...

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
EU: 500 Million Euros PER WEEK
Approx. 26 Billion Euros Per Year
generated via
a new Collective License for Music on the Internet

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Sound familiar?
Picture by http://flickr.com/photos/matteo86photonature/

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
~1910
+ =
+
=
~2009?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Why will this happen?
“Mutual Interest
- rather than Monopoly -
is the key
to sustainable growth”

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXT
Value of Meta-Content Value of Experiences
Value of Packaging
Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard)
Value of Context
100%
Value of Experience
Value of Meta-Content
Value of Packaging
75%
50%
25%
Value of ‘a Copy’
0%
Was Is Soon The Future

This is the wave we must learn to ride
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Attention - Based Revenues
Was Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Selling music: finding the new money
Next Generation Advertising Freemium
Collective License (Flat Rates & Bundles) New Generatives
Sell Copies *Take 2 3rd party pays (cross subsidies)
10%
20%
20%
10%
10%
30%

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
A new Internet-Music License would only be the beginning...

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
My proposition
A new Collective License for Music on the Internet
Let’s do what’s right for
Compensation not for Control
Let’s generate future revenues for
the Creators not just the Lawyers
Let’s do what’s right for Social,
Cultural and Business Reasons

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
“We make a living by what we get,
we make a life by what we give”
Sir Winston Churchill

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Thanks for listening!
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