The future of the music business: creating a new ecosystem (Futurist & Keynote Speaker Gerd Leonhard)

Gerd Leonhard
Gerd LeonhardFuturist and Humanist, Keynote Speaker, Author of 'Technology vs Humanity', CEO TheFuturesAgency, Film Maker, Thinker at FuturistGerd.com
Gerd Leonhard

 Futurist, Author, Musician       @gleonhard
                     & CEO        @music2dot0
               TheFuturesAgency

Creating a new Ecosystem:
The Future of the Music Industry
The future is already here!
                               The music business seems a
                              lot like the energy business :(
The future is already here!
                              The Music Industry has been ruled
                               by EGOsystems for way too long
The future is already here!
                                The current Music Ecology is
                                    unsustainable:
                                       Rampant inequality
                                    Total lack of transparency
                                Cartels & monopolies still prevail
                               Laws & policies paid for by lobbyists
                              Increasing enclosure of The Commons
                                  Criminalization of Consumers
The future is already here!




                              ....whose economic losses...?
                                           Piracy is now defined
                                             as any act of non-
                                                compliance
                                            with rules policies,
                                            pricing, restrictions
                                            and TPMs / DRMs...?
The future is already here!
                              “They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little
                                temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety”
                                                     *Benjamin Franklin
The future is already here!
The future is already here!
                                   Piracy...?
                       ★ is the result of the 1% trying to enforce
                         outdated business models on the 99%
                       ★ is a temporary consequence of radical
                         consumer empowerment driven by ever-
                         faster data networks and cheaper but even
                         smarter devices
                       ★ the consequence of total market failure as a
                         result of pervasive ignorance and blind
                         control obsession by the incumbent players


                                      CEO of MacMillan UK, April 2011, via PaidContent.org
The future is already here!
The future is already here!
                              Restricting, protecting, preventing,
                               disabling ... is a suicidal strategy
The future is already here!
The future is already here!
                              But: the music business is entering a whole new era:

                              Mobile | Social | Cloud
The future is already here!
          SoLoMo-Cloud
                     Welcome to the
The future is already here!
                               2017: 5 Billion people, 75% mobile Internet,
                              50+ major platforms, a €250 Billion ad market
The future is already here!
                              We must redefine the meaning of Selling
                               - in the future, what will it mean to ‘sell music’?
The future is already here!
                              Every screen is becoming some
                              kind of ‘connected TV or Radio’
The future is already here!
                              A huge opportunity for bundling
                              music - and then offer premiums
The future is already here!
                                By 2017, between 50% to 75% + of all media
                              consumption will be via mobile devices (Gerd’s prediction)
The future is already here!
                              Total Unbundling is inevitable
The future is already here!
                              With some exceptions, the business model of
                              merely selling ‘copies’ of music is
Music .Toast   Music. Future
The future is already here!
                              From one-to-many to
                              Many to Many
The future is already here!
                                  Like it or not: ‘Free’ Access / Listening /
                              Streaming / Downloading of music has become
                               a de-facto standard and a universal practice
The future is already here!
                              Touch. Play. Connect. Share.
                              Access not ownership *
The future is already here!
                                The end of Distribution as the key
                              success factor, metric and gate-keeper
The future is already here!
              Access *not ownership
The future is already here!
                              Imagine if 3 Billion people switched to legal streaming
                              *clearly, this will never happen without a collective, standardized, public, EU-wide license
The future is already here!
                              Like it or not: for the consumer, access to content
                              will be much cheaper than copies i.e. ownership




                                                               Source: Huffington Post
Premium-Services
The future is already here!
                              Up-Selling Added Values

                              New Generatives
The New Generatives
 The future is already here!
                                                                   *thanks to Kevin Kelly


                                       Packaging and Interfaces
                                   Curation, Filtering and Selection  * Thanks to Kevin Kelly kk.org



                                     Social Context & Relevance
                                        Intelligent Aggregation
                                         Assisted Serendipity
                                 Timeliness and Personal Relevance
                                     Quality and Trust Guarantee
                                  Customization and Personalization
                                   Localization / Contextualization
                                    Cloud-to-Device Management
                               Advertising as Content (Branded Content)
                                               Gamification
                                           ... and many more
Fluid + Feels-Like-Free + Freemium | Upselling




             +
Build income streams around the Music.
The future is already here!
                              Invent added values, pursue collaborative business models
The future is already here!




Hyper-Collaboration
Creators & Artists: we must embrace change and
   The future is already here!
focus on solutions based on Collective Objectives
The future is already here!
                                        The problem is not the ‘pay’ -
                                             it’s the wall!
                                                 ☺
                                        !
                              Source:
The future is already here!
                              Is there $ in advertising-supported music?
The future is already here!
                              Big Data will help to fund ‘Big Music’
The future is already here!
                                         We are already..
                              Paying with our Data
The future is already here!
                              Going Direct is becoming...real
The future is already here!
                              Ease of use + Choice + Price +
                               Added Values + Brand = $£€
The future is already here!
It’s about Value & Experiences not just Price!
We urgently need a Public Rights Logic that
     fits our Digital Ecosystem
The future is already here!
                              Without a public, open, standardized license
                              for digital music this is very unlikely to last...
The future is already here!
                              The ‘free markets’ won’t fix this.
                               We need must-license provisions, public
                               oversight, regulation for a common goal
The future is already here!
                              Take back the Music Business!
                                                   Business
                                                    Innovation
                                                       Culture
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The future of the music business: creating a new ecosystem (Futurist & Keynote Speaker Gerd Leonhard)

  • 1. Gerd Leonhard Futurist, Author, Musician @gleonhard & CEO @music2dot0 TheFuturesAgency Creating a new Ecosystem: The Future of the Music Industry
  • 2. The future is already here! The music business seems a lot like the energy business :(
  • 3. The future is already here! The Music Industry has been ruled by EGOsystems for way too long
  • 4. The future is already here! The current Music Ecology is unsustainable: Rampant inequality Total lack of transparency Cartels & monopolies still prevail Laws & policies paid for by lobbyists Increasing enclosure of The Commons Criminalization of Consumers
  • 5. The future is already here! ....whose economic losses...? Piracy is now defined as any act of non- compliance with rules policies, pricing, restrictions and TPMs / DRMs...?
  • 6. The future is already here! “They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety” *Benjamin Franklin
  • 7. The future is already here!
  • 8. The future is already here! Piracy...? ★ is the result of the 1% trying to enforce outdated business models on the 99% ★ is a temporary consequence of radical consumer empowerment driven by ever- faster data networks and cheaper but even smarter devices ★ the consequence of total market failure as a result of pervasive ignorance and blind control obsession by the incumbent players CEO of MacMillan UK, April 2011, via PaidContent.org
  • 9. The future is already here!
  • 10. The future is already here! Restricting, protecting, preventing, disabling ... is a suicidal strategy
  • 11. The future is already here!
  • 12. The future is already here! But: the music business is entering a whole new era: Mobile | Social | Cloud
  • 13. The future is already here! SoLoMo-Cloud Welcome to the
  • 14. The future is already here! 2017: 5 Billion people, 75% mobile Internet, 50+ major platforms, a €250 Billion ad market
  • 15. The future is already here! We must redefine the meaning of Selling - in the future, what will it mean to ‘sell music’?
  • 16. The future is already here! Every screen is becoming some kind of ‘connected TV or Radio’
  • 17. The future is already here! A huge opportunity for bundling music - and then offer premiums
  • 18. The future is already here! By 2017, between 50% to 75% + of all media consumption will be via mobile devices (Gerd’s prediction)
  • 19. The future is already here! Total Unbundling is inevitable
  • 20. The future is already here! With some exceptions, the business model of merely selling ‘copies’ of music is
  • 21. Music .Toast Music. Future
  • 22. The future is already here! From one-to-many to Many to Many
  • 23. The future is already here! Like it or not: ‘Free’ Access / Listening / Streaming / Downloading of music has become a de-facto standard and a universal practice
  • 24. The future is already here! Touch. Play. Connect. Share. Access not ownership *
  • 25. The future is already here! The end of Distribution as the key success factor, metric and gate-keeper
  • 26. The future is already here! Access *not ownership
  • 27. The future is already here! Imagine if 3 Billion people switched to legal streaming *clearly, this will never happen without a collective, standardized, public, EU-wide license
  • 28. The future is already here! Like it or not: for the consumer, access to content will be much cheaper than copies i.e. ownership Source: Huffington Post
  • 29. Premium-Services The future is already here! Up-Selling Added Values New Generatives
  • 30. The New Generatives The future is already here! *thanks to Kevin Kelly Packaging and Interfaces Curation, Filtering and Selection * Thanks to Kevin Kelly kk.org Social Context & Relevance Intelligent Aggregation Assisted Serendipity Timeliness and Personal Relevance Quality and Trust Guarantee Customization and Personalization Localization / Contextualization Cloud-to-Device Management Advertising as Content (Branded Content) Gamification ... and many more
  • 31. Fluid + Feels-Like-Free + Freemium | Upselling +
  • 32. Build income streams around the Music. The future is already here! Invent added values, pursue collaborative business models
  • 33. The future is already here! Hyper-Collaboration
  • 34. Creators & Artists: we must embrace change and The future is already here! focus on solutions based on Collective Objectives
  • 35. The future is already here! The problem is not the ‘pay’ - it’s the wall! ☺ ! Source:
  • 36. The future is already here! Is there $ in advertising-supported music?
  • 37. The future is already here! Big Data will help to fund ‘Big Music’
  • 38. The future is already here! We are already.. Paying with our Data
  • 39. The future is already here! Going Direct is becoming...real
  • 40. The future is already here! Ease of use + Choice + Price + Added Values + Brand = $£€
  • 41. The future is already here! It’s about Value & Experiences not just Price!
  • 42. We urgently need a Public Rights Logic that fits our Digital Ecosystem
  • 43. The future is already here! Without a public, open, standardized license for digital music this is very unlikely to last...
  • 44. The future is already here! The ‘free markets’ won’t fix this. We need must-license provisions, public oversight, regulation for a common goal
  • 45. The future is already here! Take back the Music Business! Business Innovation Culture