Gerd Leonhard Npox 2008

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Gerd Leonhard Npox 2008

  1. 1. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The End of Control, the People formerly known as Consumers... and the Future of Broadcasting Presentation at NPOX 2008 November 17 2008 by Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
  2. 2. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Remember?
  3. 3. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist How life changes with more bandwidth! We often overestimate how quickly change will happen We often underestimate the magnitude of the changes when it does happen
  4. 4. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist 12-18 months for some very very drastic changes!
  5. 5. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Source: kk.org
  6. 6. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist But: this is not about technology Emerging Cultural Practices
  7. 7. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  8. 8. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Br o a d b a n d C u l tu r e
  9. 9. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist ! If you want to learn how to swim you’ll have to get wet!
  10. 10. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist A few shocking facts from the U.S.
  11. 11. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Digital Natives: Internet over TV
  12. 12. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Internet takes time away from all other Media
  13. 13. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist If the future What to do? audience migrates to the Internet then you must BECOME the Internet for them!
  14. 14. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Who is the DJ? Remember when you had a Monopoly in Attention?
  15. 15. Emerging cultural practices... Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist So what are those practices? • I want it when I want it [time-shifting] • I want it how and where I want it [place-shifting] • I want to be able to influence, talk back, determine [control-shifting] • I want real value for my money - or else... [money-shifting] • I want real value for my attention - or else... [attention-shifting]
  16. 16. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist To summarize
  17. 17. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist I program my media - it does not program me!
  18. 18. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist A huge challenge
  19. 19. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Because In all Media, Push is becoming Pull
  20. 20. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Broadband Consequences Now we need • Filters • Curators • Context • Relevance • Merit • Humanness
  21. 21. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Are you...?
  22. 22. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future: more and more fragmentation.. and (Re)-Aggregation
  23. 23. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Life Content Media Source: Flickr hillarylmrore
  24. 24. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Serious role changes
  25. 25. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Instead of Control, Trust is the key to success in a Networked World http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/apr/21/netmusic
  26. 26. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Once technology becomes dead-simple...
  27. 27. Next: Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  28. 28. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Expect big changes when things actually work!
  29. 29. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Mainstream Media and the ‘Wisdom of the Crowds’
  30. 30. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The public TV / Radio license and... Users willing to pay $$ for Google...?
  31. 31. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Why? Finding and being Found. Sharing. Communicating. Connecting
  32. 32. Sharing is the key Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  33. 33. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Content Creators Content Users Listeners Viewers
  34. 34. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Content: UGC is a MAJOR force
  35. 35. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Image via flickr.com/photos/spursfan_ace/ People now pay more to express themselves, and less to consume
  36. 36. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Crowd + Cloud = Serious Potential
  37. 37. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist No archive... no attention! http://flickr.com/photos/inweaknessbe/
  38. 38. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Does this worry you?
  39. 39. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  40. 40. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Kevin Kelly @ kk.org: The key is to offer valuable intangibles: 1. Immediacy - priority access, immediate delivery 2. Personalization - tailored just for you... !MeCastquot; 3. Interpretation & Filtering - support and guidance 4. Authenticity - making sure itquot;s the real thing 5. Accessibility - wherever, whenever, however 6. Embodiment, Experience & Packaging 7. Community (i.e. the Tribes) 8. Findability & Curation
  41. 41. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes Copy Based Revenues Attention Based Revenues 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 Was 0 Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future
  42. 42. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Users = = Users
  43. 43. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist This is over
  44. 44. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Moving from take-down to permission, from NO to YES Rights Societies!
  45. 45. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Be trusted or... Perish!
  46. 46. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist This will NOT work in the Future A World of No becomes a World of Yes
  47. 47. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Together, Broadband Culture and Mobility will re-define how we think about: • Privacy • Authority • Ownership / Copyright • ‘Selling’ (and Marketing) • Work • Education
  48. 48. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Put yourself in the middle of all of it! Broadcaster
  49. 49. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist I m a g i n e Your Your TV Radio
  50. 50. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Imagine a multi platform multi device Google Content Reader: Broadcasters fill the need for Trust, for filtering Choice, for Curation
  51. 51. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Social Networks are the Next Broad- casters
  52. 52. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist EU Broadcasting in 3-5 years • 100% digital and fully converged with the Internet • All stations everywhere,anytime, any way we want • Video and Audio converging • Community features at the center • Geography fades, borders become soft • Radio license is first questioned and then expanded (based on a Flat Rate for Digital Music) • Advertising 2.0 emerges as major funding option • Public Radio offers full archives on-demand
  53. 53. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Some trigger factors: !Highspeed Wireless Internet everywhere !WiBro in the car !4G Wireless cell phone networks fully deployed !Radios with WLAN chips !Cell phones with DAB receivers (and WLAN) !Mobile computing devices that talk effortlessly to each other !Web5.0 as easy as a TV remote control !Everyone networked
  54. 54. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Digital Music Flat Rate is inevitable ~1910 + = + = ~2009?
  55. 55. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The 6 Inevitables 1. Broadcasting must support time-shifting 2. Broadcasting must support space-shifting 3. Broadcasting must support sharing 4. Broadcasting must support interactivity 5. Broadcasting must support community 6. Broadband must return to be ‘social media’
  56. 56. DO Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Summary:
  57. 57. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The dangers of an open, shared and connected ecosystem will always be less than those of a closed & controlled ecosystem
  58. 58. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Thanks for listening! ! Email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com ! Download this presentation at www.mediafuturist.com ! Lifestream at www.gerdstream.com ! Twitter.com: gleonhard

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