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Gerd Leonhard
 Futurist, Author, Musician
                     & CEO
               TheFuturesAgency

                                  @gleonhard
                                  @music2dot0

   From Ego to Eco:
The Future of Music
The future is already here!
                              Tweet your questions @gleonhard
The future is already here!
The future is already here!
                              The music business is a lot
                              like the energy business :(
The future is already here!
...and artists are starting to feel like this
The future is already here!
                              We’ve had EGOsystems
                                      ...for way too long
The future is already here!




                              ....whose economic losses...?
                                           Piracy defined as any
                                           act of non-compliance
                                           with policies, pricing,
                                             restrictions, rules
                                              and technology :)
Do the big Oil Companies
The future is already here!
                              represent Nature?
The future is already here!
                              “They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little
                                temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety”
                                                     *Benjamin Franklin
The future is already here!
                              Music EgoSystems are
                              utterly unsustainable:
                                      Rampant inequality
                                  Total lack of transparency
                                 Cartels & monopolies prevail
                              Laws & policies paid for by lobbyists
                                  Enclosure of the Commons
                                 Criminalization of Consumers
The future is already here!
The future is already here!
                                              Piracy
                              ★ is the result of the 1% trying to enforce
                                outdated business models
                              ★ an aberration of radical consumer
                                empowerment based on ever-faster
                                networks and cheap but smart devices
                              ★ consequence of market failure paired
                                with pervasive ignorance and blind
                                control obsession by most incumbents


                                           CEO of MacMillan UK, April 2011, via PaidContent.org
The future is already here!
                              Restricting, protecting, preventing,
                               disabling ... is a suicidal strategy
The future is already here!
                                Control consumption?
                              Make content unavailable?
                                  Enforce payment?
                                  Restrict sharing?
                              Create artificial scarcity?
                              Sue fans into submission?
The future is already here!
The future is already here!
The future is already here!
                              Music is just about to migrate into a larger turf...
                                                   Mobile & Social
The future is already here!
                              First: redefine the meaning of Selling
                               - in the future, what will it mean to ‘sell music’?
The future is already here!
The future is already here!
                              Every screen is becoming some
                              kind of ‘connected TV or Radio’
The future is already here!
                              A huge opportunity for bundling
                              music and then offer premiums
The future is already here!
                              By 2017, between 50% to 75% + of all media
                               consumption will be via mobile devices *
The future is already here!
          SoLoMo-Cloud
                     Welcome to the
The future is already here!
                                The end of Distribution as the key
                              success factor, metric and gate-keeper
The future is already here!
                              Total Unbundling is inevitable
The future is already here!
                              With some exceptions, the business model of
                              merely selling ‘copies’ of music is
Music .Toast   Music. Future
The future is already here!
                              From one-to-many to
                              Many to Many
The future is already here!
                              ‘Free’ Access / Listen / Streaming / Downloading
                                of music has become a de-facto standard and

                                     Common Right
The future is already here!




                              Guess where we are headed...
The future is already here!
                              Touch. Play. Connect. Share.
                              Access not ownership *
The future is already here!
              Access *not ownership
The future is already here!
                              Does ‘access not own‘
                                  worry you?
The future is already here!
                           The issue: for the consumer, access to content
                          will be much cheaper than copies i.e. ownership




                                                        Source: Huffington Post
The future is already here!
                                             But let’s do the math:
                              Access for everyone is better!
                              • Average advertising value of every active Internet
                                  user is approx. € 42
                              •   Average cost of customer acquisition for mobile
                                  operators is € 100 each (global estimated average)
                              •   € 2 per month raised per EU Internet user (i.e. approx.
                                  500 Million) would result in approx. 1 Billion per
                                  month i.e. € 12.2 Billion per year
                              •   Which represents almost 100 % of the current
                                  worldwide revenues for music
                              •   The € 2 / month / user could be generated via
                                  advertising, data-mining, flat-rates, bundles,
                                  subsidies, taxes - or even directly from the users:)
                              •   Note: and this would just be the beginning!
The future is already here!
                               2017: 5 Billion people, 75% mobile Internet,
                              50+ major platforms, a €250 Billion ad market
Premium-Services
The future is already here!
                              Up-Selling Added Values

                              New Generatives
Build income streams around the Music.
The future is already here!
                              Invent added values, pursue collaborative business models
Fluid + Feels-Like-Free + Freemium | Upselling




             +
The New Generatives *Kevin Kelly
  The future is already here!           Packaging and Interfaces
                                    Curation, Filtering and Selection * Thanks to Kevin Kelly kk.org


                                      Social Context & Relevance
                                         Intelligent Aggregation
                                          Assisted Serendipity
                                  Timeliness and Personal Relevance
                                      Quality and Trust Guarantee
                                   Customization and Personalization
                                    Localization / Contextualization
                                     Cloud-to-Device Management
                                Advertising as Content (Branded Content)
                                                Gamification
                                            ... and many more
New Generatives *Kevin Kelly
The future is already here!
New Generatives *Kevin Kelly
The future is already here!
The future is already here!
                                        The problem is not the ‘pay’ -
                                             it’s the wall!
                                                 ☺
                                        ☹
                              Source:
The future is already here!
                Other ways to get paid...
The future is already here!
                                         We are already..
                              Paying with our Data
The future is already here!
                              Is there $ in advertising-supported music?
The future is already here!
                              Big Data will fund ‘Big Content’
The future is already here!
                              Ease of use + Choice + Price +
                               Added Values + Brand = $£€
The future is already here!
It’s about Value & Experiences not just Price!
The future is already here!
                              Imagine if 3 Billion people switched to legal streaming
                              *clearly, this will never happen without a collective, standardized, public, EU-wide license
The future is already here!
                              Urgent: Copy Public Rights that fit our
                                    Digital Ecosystem
The future is already here!
                              The ‘free markets’ won’t fix this.
                               We need must-license provisions, public
                              oversight, regulation for the common good.
The future is already here!




Hyper-Collaboration
Creators & Artists: we must embrace change and
   The future is already here!
focus on solutions based on Collective Objectives
The future is already here!
                              Take back the Music!
                                             Business
                                              Innovation
                                                 Culture
The future is already here!   Thank
                              You!


                                      D E S I G N :
                              C   R   E   A   T   I   V   E

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From Ego to Eco: the future of the music business (Futurist, Author and Keynote Speaker Gerd Leonhard)

  • 1. Gerd Leonhard Futurist, Author, Musician & CEO TheFuturesAgency @gleonhard @music2dot0 From Ego to Eco: The Future of Music
  • 2. The future is already here! Tweet your questions @gleonhard
  • 3. The future is already here!
  • 4. The future is already here! The music business is a lot like the energy business :(
  • 5. The future is already here! ...and artists are starting to feel like this
  • 6. The future is already here! We’ve had EGOsystems ...for way too long
  • 7. The future is already here! ....whose economic losses...? Piracy defined as any act of non-compliance with policies, pricing, restrictions, rules and technology :)
  • 8. Do the big Oil Companies The future is already here! represent Nature?
  • 9. The future is already here! “They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety” *Benjamin Franklin
  • 10. The future is already here! Music EgoSystems are utterly unsustainable: Rampant inequality Total lack of transparency Cartels & monopolies prevail Laws & policies paid for by lobbyists Enclosure of the Commons Criminalization of Consumers
  • 11. The future is already here!
  • 12. The future is already here! Piracy ★ is the result of the 1% trying to enforce outdated business models ★ an aberration of radical consumer empowerment based on ever-faster networks and cheap but smart devices ★ consequence of market failure paired with pervasive ignorance and blind control obsession by most incumbents CEO of MacMillan UK, April 2011, via PaidContent.org
  • 13. The future is already here! Restricting, protecting, preventing, disabling ... is a suicidal strategy
  • 14. The future is already here! Control consumption? Make content unavailable? Enforce payment? Restrict sharing? Create artificial scarcity? Sue fans into submission?
  • 15. The future is already here!
  • 16. The future is already here!
  • 17. The future is already here! Music is just about to migrate into a larger turf... Mobile & Social
  • 18. The future is already here! First: redefine the meaning of Selling - in the future, what will it mean to ‘sell music’?
  • 19. The future is already here!
  • 20. The future is already here! Every screen is becoming some kind of ‘connected TV or Radio’
  • 21. The future is already here! A huge opportunity for bundling music and then offer premiums
  • 22. The future is already here! By 2017, between 50% to 75% + of all media consumption will be via mobile devices *
  • 23. The future is already here! SoLoMo-Cloud Welcome to the
  • 24. The future is already here! The end of Distribution as the key success factor, metric and gate-keeper
  • 25. The future is already here! Total Unbundling is inevitable
  • 26. The future is already here! With some exceptions, the business model of merely selling ‘copies’ of music is
  • 27. Music .Toast Music. Future
  • 28. The future is already here! From one-to-many to Many to Many
  • 29. The future is already here! ‘Free’ Access / Listen / Streaming / Downloading of music has become a de-facto standard and Common Right
  • 30. The future is already here! Guess where we are headed...
  • 31. The future is already here! Touch. Play. Connect. Share. Access not ownership *
  • 32. The future is already here! Access *not ownership
  • 33. The future is already here! Does ‘access not own‘ worry you?
  • 34. The future is already here! The issue: for the consumer, access to content will be much cheaper than copies i.e. ownership Source: Huffington Post
  • 35. The future is already here! But let’s do the math: Access for everyone is better! • Average advertising value of every active Internet user is approx. € 42 • Average cost of customer acquisition for mobile operators is € 100 each (global estimated average) • € 2 per month raised per EU Internet user (i.e. approx. 500 Million) would result in approx. 1 Billion per month i.e. € 12.2 Billion per year • Which represents almost 100 % of the current worldwide revenues for music • The € 2 / month / user could be generated via advertising, data-mining, flat-rates, bundles, subsidies, taxes - or even directly from the users:) • Note: and this would just be the beginning!
  • 36. The future is already here! 2017: 5 Billion people, 75% mobile Internet, 50+ major platforms, a €250 Billion ad market
  • 37. Premium-Services The future is already here! Up-Selling Added Values New Generatives
  • 38. Build income streams around the Music. The future is already here! Invent added values, pursue collaborative business models
  • 39. Fluid + Feels-Like-Free + Freemium | Upselling +
  • 40. The New Generatives *Kevin Kelly The future is already here! Packaging and Interfaces Curation, Filtering and Selection * Thanks to Kevin Kelly kk.org Social Context & Relevance Intelligent Aggregation Assisted Serendipity Timeliness and Personal Relevance Quality and Trust Guarantee Customization and Personalization Localization / Contextualization Cloud-to-Device Management Advertising as Content (Branded Content) Gamification ... and many more
  • 41. New Generatives *Kevin Kelly The future is already here!
  • 42. New Generatives *Kevin Kelly The future is already here!
  • 43. The future is already here! The problem is not the ‘pay’ - it’s the wall! ☺ ☹ Source:
  • 44. The future is already here! Other ways to get paid...
  • 45. The future is already here! We are already.. Paying with our Data
  • 46. The future is already here! Is there $ in advertising-supported music?
  • 47. The future is already here! Big Data will fund ‘Big Content’
  • 48. The future is already here! Ease of use + Choice + Price + Added Values + Brand = $£€
  • 49. The future is already here! It’s about Value & Experiences not just Price!
  • 50. The future is already here! Imagine if 3 Billion people switched to legal streaming *clearly, this will never happen without a collective, standardized, public, EU-wide license
  • 51. The future is already here! Urgent: Copy Public Rights that fit our Digital Ecosystem
  • 52. The future is already here! The ‘free markets’ won’t fix this. We need must-license provisions, public oversight, regulation for the common good.
  • 53. The future is already here! Hyper-Collaboration
  • 54. Creators & Artists: we must embrace change and The future is already here! focus on solutions based on Collective Objectives
  • 55. The future is already here! Take back the Music! Business Innovation Culture
  • 56. The future is already here! Thank You! D E S I G N : C R E A T I V E