Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                    The Future of Media
                       and Content
              ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                                Content
              Was




                           ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


                                    Legislation
                                    Governm...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




      Google China President Kai Fu Lee:
     Mutual Interest, rather than Monopoly,
    ...
Mutual Interest
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                                 - the Keyword
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                                   3G Wireless Futures
           Ability to connect * and IN...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




             The difference between dial-up, fixed
                and low-bandwidth Inte...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                               The challenge: New Models!
                               Cont...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


    A very serious change - and huge opportunity!


                               Copy Eco...
Sharing is the key driver
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



        But this is not about technology...




            The Age of Collaboration
     ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                                   Turkey Internet Penetration
                              ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




         Cost of Internet Access   Cost of Storage   Skills Required




Today           ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


The Digital Natives: our future and the new $$$$
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

                               Truly connected means...


            We can find out ...any...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


 The Future: connecting the users is the key to success
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                               The crisis of the Content Business
• Mere copies of content ar...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



                      The lesson:
                    You’ll have to get
                 ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



     The new ways of making money
     with Content are going to be quite
         unlike ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                               Freemium
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


   The new ways of making money with
     Communications are going to be
      drastically ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                               The next SMS
                                      is
    ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




  The new ways of
   Advertising are
 going to be totally
unlike the traditional
        ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

                               Next Generation Advertising
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



  Drastic role changes are imminent.

        Experience Platform
        Service Pipe

  ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                               Communications




             Advertising               ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                                       We
                                     cannot
   ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                           We
                         cannot
                     genera...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




           Disruption

  Reinvention
The Copyright Dilemma
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



                 Copy
The Copyright Dilemma
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


                                                       Right
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




Right ... for the law - wrong for the $$
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




     •     Is the quest for Control realistic?
     •     Will it make Money?
     •     ...
Stop this?
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


  The opportunity
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


 The past: making your customers angry
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Digital Music Flat Rate is inevitable
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                                       ~1910

 ...
The logic
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




‣        Music is included in network access
‣        Fees are paid but cross-s...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                               The new ecosystem: Example: Music

                           ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




Games > Music > Film / TV > Books >>


                   Command & Control
             ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


     More access = More use of Content
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




  http://flickr.com/photos/jan1020/
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                               How to make the users happy
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



                       In a networked culture,
                      a world of NO permiss...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
      Average Available Time                    Available Choices        Average Available At...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
         Amount of Input                                   Need for Selection, Filtering & Cu...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




              It’s not the free copy that
                      counts - it’s
           ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                                   Instead of Control




                     http://flickr....
Search IS Media.
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                               Media is Social.
                        ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


Selling content: finding new money sources
                Next Generation Advertising     ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

                               Value of ‘a Copy’            Value of CONTEXT
               ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                               New Value: Meta-Content
                               *aka Da...
The new Content Economy: the User is a major force
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



    P e r m i s s i o n .
    E n g a g e m e n t .
    C o n v e r s a t i o n .
    T h ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes
                                    ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




•   Give Permission - and collect
   revenue shares
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



   Kevin Kelly @ kk.org: When an offering becomes commoditized
   the solution is to offer...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                               To summarize




      Telecom                                ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



    Thanks for listening!


 TALK BACK:
 ★ email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com
 ★ twitter.c...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

The Future Of Media And Content Gerd Leonhard at TIME 08 Istanbul

7,279 views

Published on

My presentation at the 2008 TIME conference in Istanbul, Turkey (Dec 2, 08): The Future of Content and Media. Topics include:
* Why telecoms and content owners have to work together to develop a new content business model (and what it could look like)
* The consequences of 3G- and Wimax- powered mobility on the content industries
* How Advertising 2.0 and the future of content are intertwined, and what role a new kind of advertising approach could play in content commerce
* How the traditional, western 'copy economy' is shifting to the access, service & sharing economy, and what the corresponding new business models could look like
* Why the flat rate for music is the solution for the current conumdrum, what it means, and how it could work
* Why we cannot succeed by focusing on Control as the main factor of content monetization - and what else could be done, instead! More at http://tinyurl.com/6fa3t8

  • Be the first to comment

The Future Of Media And Content Gerd Leonhard at TIME 08 Istanbul

  1. 1. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future of Media and Content Presentation at TIME 2008 December 2, 2008 Istanbul, Turkey Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
  2. 2. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Content Was Legislation Telecom Government Regulation
  3. 3. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Legislation Government Regulation Will be... The Users fka Consumers Telecom Content
  4. 4. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Google China President Kai Fu Lee: Mutual Interest, rather than Monopoly, is the key to sustainable growth
  5. 5. Mutual Interest Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist - the Keyword
  6. 6. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist 3G Wireless Futures Ability to connect * and INTERACT Ability to share EVERYTHING Hunger for content Without 3G With 3 G + Wifi / Wimax
  7. 7. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The difference between dial-up, fixed and low-bandwidth Internet and high-speed, mobile Internet is even bigger than going from offline to online, to begin with. 100 : 1
  8. 8. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The challenge: New Models! Content Consumption (all) Revenue Potential Success with Traditional Content Models Was Is 2 years 5 years
  9. 9. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist A very serious change - and huge opportunity! Copy Economy Access / Usage / Sharing Economy
  10. 10. Sharing is the key driver Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  11. 11. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist But this is not about technology... The Age of Collaboration Emerging cultural practices New business models
  12. 12. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Turkey Internet Penetration Turkey Mobile Penetration Cost of Internet Access Cost of Storage Skills Required 225% 150% 120% 90% 60% 37% Today 2-3 years 5-7 years
  13. 13. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Cost of Internet Access Cost of Storage Skills Required Today 2-3 years 5-7 year Sharing Co-Creation
  14. 14. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Digital Natives: our future and the new $$$$
  15. 15. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Truly connected means... We can find out ...anything We decide who gets to market to us Niches are the new hits We find out we can actually create things, too! We collaborate to get very large jobs done, together We collaborate cross-time/border/nation/firm We can serve the world (and vice versa)
  16. 16. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future: connecting the users is the key to success
  17. 17. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The crisis of the Content Business • Mere copies of content are de-facto ‘free’ • The Internet is a giant copy machine - and it’s rapidly growing in size and reach (and now: mobile!) • Selling copies is a rapidly declining business model (Music, DVDs, Magazines, Newspapers...) • Broadband culture drives further commodization • What used to be paid for is now often free • Digital revenues are not nearly enough to make up for the loss of physical sales (1:5 ratio!) • Developing countries have no pay-by-unit tradition • There is more content consumption than ever before - but where is the ‘new money’?
  18. 18. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The lesson: You’ll have to get wet if you want to learn how to swim.
  19. 19. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The new ways of making money with Content are going to be quite unlike the traditional ways
  20. 20. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Freemium
  21. 21. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The new ways of making money with Communications are going to be drastically expanded from the traditional ways
  22. 22. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The next SMS is a) Content b) Social Communication around Content (Social Media)
  23. 23. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The new ways of Advertising are going to be totally unlike the traditional ways
  24. 24. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Next Generation Advertising
  25. 25. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Drastic role changes are imminent. Experience Platform Service Pipe Content Pipe Data Pipe
  26. 26. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Communications Advertising Content
  27. 27. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist We cannot wall-in our Content in this future
  28. 28. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist We cannot generate enough new values without Content
  29. 29. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Disruption Reinvention
  30. 30. The Copyright Dilemma Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Copy
  31. 31. The Copyright Dilemma Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Right
  32. 32. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Right ... for the law - wrong for the $$
  33. 33. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist • Is the quest for Control realistic? • Will it make Money? • Will it be fair and equitable? • Will it create a Culture & Society in which we will want to live in?
  34. 34. Stop this? Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  35. 35. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The opportunity
  36. 36. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The past: making your customers angry
  37. 37. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  38. 38. The Digital Music Flat Rate is inevitable Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist ~1910 + = + = ~2009?
  39. 39. The logic Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist ‣ Music is included in network access ‣ Fees are paid but cross-subsidized ‣ Music is cost-neutral to Networks ‣ User pays ‘with attention’ or cash ‣ Most uses will ‘will like free’ ‣ Data is shared with content owners ‣ Multiple upsell options can unfold ‣ Rightholders get paid for each use
  40. 40. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The new ecosystem: Example: Music Extra Community Services Video, Games, Interactive Preferred access (fans) Live Recordings on-demand Merchandising High-definition offerings Bundled Music, Feels Like Free, Unlimited, no DRM, Streams & Downloads * followed by other Content!
  41. 41. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Games > Music > Film / TV > Books >> Command & Control becomes Coordinate & Cultivate *Thomas Malone “The Future of Work”
  42. 42. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist More access = More use of Content
  43. 43. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist http://flickr.com/photos/jan1020/
  44. 44. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist How to make the users happy
  45. 45. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist In a networked culture, a world of NO permission is a world of NO $
  46. 46. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Average Available Time Available Choices Average Available Attention Attention, Choice & Curation Trends (Gerd Leonhard) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Was Is Soon The Future
  47. 47. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Amount of Input Need for Selection, Filtering & Curation Need for Community of Content Attention, Choice & Curation Trends (Gerd Leonhard) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Was Is Soon The Future
  48. 48. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist It’s not the free copy that counts - it’s everything around it!
  49. 49. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Instead of Control http://flickr.com/photos/foxwillow/
  50. 50. Search IS Media. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Media is Social. Search is Social.
  51. 51. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Selling content: finding new money sources Next Generation Advertising Freemium Flat Rates & Bundles New Generatives Sell Copies *Take 2 3rd party pays (cross subsidies) 20% 20% 10% 15% 35%
  52. 52. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXT Value of Meta-Content Value of Experiences Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard) Value of Context 100% Value of Experience Value of Meta-Content 75% 50% 25% Value of ‘a Copy’ 0% Was Is Soon The Future
  53. 53. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist New Value: Meta-Content *aka Data • User ratings & recommendations • User reviews • User tagging and annotating • User bookmarking • User sharing / forwarding • User editing / remixing • User republishing
  54. 54. The new Content Economy: the User is a major force Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  55. 55. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist P e r m i s s i o n . E n g a g e m e n t . C o n v e r s a t i o n . T h e F u t u r e .
  56. 56. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes Copy Based Revenues Attention Based Revenues Was Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future
  57. 57. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist • Give Permission - and collect revenue shares
  58. 58. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Kevin Kelly @ kk.org: When an offering becomes commoditized the solution is to offer valuable intangibles: 1. Immediacy - priority access, immediate delivery 2. Personalization - tailored just for you... ʻMeCastʼ 3. Interpretation & Filtering - support and guidance 4. Authenticity - making sure itʼs the real thing 5. Accessibility - wherever, whenever, however 6. Embodiment, Experience & Packaging 7. Community (i.e. the Tribes) 8. Findability & Curation
  59. 59. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist To summarize Telecom Content
  60. 60. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Thanks for listening! TALK BACK: ★ email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com ★ twitter.com/gleonhard ★ facebook: gleonhard ★ more presentations at www.mediafuturist.com ★ Thought-Stream at www.gerdstream.com

×