What are the main business and social trends that will have an impact on ICT in 2 to 5 years? How can we take them into account in our strategies and policies?

1. Giorgio Pauletto
Observatoire technologique
Incubator of change and innovation engine
Centre des technologies de l'information
DCTI, Etat de Genève
Département des constructions et des technologies de l'information
Centre des technologies de l'information
15.09.08 - Page 1

2. Observatoire technologique
E-Society Vison
OT
Business
Foresight
Information
Partnerships
Technology
http://ot.ge.ch/ot
Département des constructions et des technologies de l'information
Centre des technologies de l'information
15.09.08 - Page 2

3. Activities
• Strategic Foresight
• How do society and technology influence each other?
• Provide advice to the State of Geneva and CIO on
strategies and technologies
• Lead an active work group on
Information Systems Governance
• Open conference « Journée de rencontre »
(Nov 21 on Opening Public Data)
Département des constructions et des technologies de l'information
Centre des technologies de l'information
15.09.08 - Page 3

4. Globalization Personalization
Transparency Aesthetics
Long tail
Governance Innovation
Business models
Open Source
Web 2.0 Traceability
Singularity
Services Security
Virtualization
Environment
Sustainability

5. ?
● What are the main trends
that will have an impact on
ICT in 2 to 5 years?
● How can we take them into
account in our strategies
and policies?
● How can we translate them
into operational actions?

6. Cycles
Technology
Economy
Society
Time

7. Digital Business Macro Trends

8. Globalized Microbusiness
Mobiles Western
Consumer
n Saturation
Social
Software IT Accelerators
n
 Global online
consumers Deepening
 Connected Mass Emerging
Consumption Market
microfinance Development
Web Users
 Collaborative
n and remote
working
www
Broadband
Production
n
Cost
Innovation
Gb

10. New Management Science
Graphics
Business Applies
p Technology
Advances
Processors
IT Accelerators
p  Simulation
 Dynamic Management
Metadata business Science
Seeks New Global
methods Optimization Competition
 Mathematical Increases Scale,
i q Methods
Standardization
management
Sensors science
(derivatives)
$
 Services science
Process Mgmt Flattening World,
Reduces "Easy"
Margin Opportunities
%

11. Issue 16.08 June 2008

12. Technological Environmentalism
Wireless
Networks
Technological
Society
n
Web users
IT Accelerators
n
www  Carbon credits
and e-trading Exploiting
Metadata New and
 Localized Cheaper Pollutes
micro-generation Technologies Earth and
i q  Pollution Atmosphere
sensors
Sensors
 Life cycle
$ traceability
Requiring New
Process Mgmt Policies and
Controls
%

13. Global IT strategy for CO2 reductions, June 2008, WWF

14. Collective Intelligence
SOA
New Technology
% Creates New
Utility Potential
Infrastructure
$
IT Accelerators
 Tagging
:
 Web 2.0
Web Users  "Open" Empowerment
development Disrupts: New But "Network
Breakthroughs Effects" Are
 Prediction Arise Needed to
www n markets Realize It
Metadata  Wikis
 Social
i q networking
Mass
 Blogs Participation
Social
Software  High Creates
performance Unintended
workplace Consequences
n

16. Design Innovation
Mobiles
"Aesthetic Need"
n Market
Grows
Social
Software
IT Accelerators
n
 Commoditization
Display  New "materials" New Levels
technology  Power design of Aesthetic Design
tools Achievement Applied to
q Technology
 Design discourse
Graphics  Emergence of
service and
experience design
p
Technology
Memory Attracts More
Creative Users
$

18. Proactive Transparency
Mobiles
"IT Penetrates
Deeper Into
n Everyday
Business and
Social Personal Life"
Software IT Accelerators
 Consumerization
n  Digital native IT Industry
generation Creates Power Elite
Memory Better Tools;
 Free agent Store, Share
Regulators and Network
workforce Require
$ Information in
 Attention More Disclosure New Ways
Channels
economy
 Globalized
capital Consumers,
n Investors,
Employees
Storage
Demand
$ Access to
Compete

20. Digital Business Macro Trends
• Globalized Microbusiness
• New Management Science
• Technological Environmentalism
• Collective Intelligence
• Design Innovation
• Proactive Transparency

21. “
The future is already here;
”
it's just not very evenly distributed.
William Gibson

22. 5 Disruptive IT Trends in 2008

23. 5 Disruptive IT Trends in 2008
Software as a
Service
Cloud
Open Source
Computing
Consum-
Web 2.0
erization

24. 5 Disruptive IT Trends in 2008
Software as a
Service
Software using an open
source license, built on open
standards, and supported by
an active community.
Cloud
Open Source Cheap and easy to
Computing
implement, it allows for a
quick uptake at a high
professional level.
Ex: Linux, OpenOffice.org,
Firefox, Apache, ...
Consum-
Web 2.0
erization

25. 5 Disruptive IT Trends in 2008
Software as a
Service Hosted application that
offers services either
directly on the web or
through APIs (often via
Cloud Webservices or REST
Open Source
Computing architectures). Eliminates
the need to install and run
the app locally simplifying
software maintenance,
operation, and support.
Consum- Ex: Gmail, Hotmail,
Web 2.0 Google Docs, OpenId,
erization
Salesforce, ...

26. 5 Disruptive IT Trends in 2008
Software as a
Service World scale size hardware
and software architectures
to host services on the web.
This allows services to
Cloud
Open Source become more scalable,
Computing
flexible, and quickly
deployed.
Ex: Amazon Elastic
Computing Cloud EC2 et
Simple Storage Service S3,
Consum- Google App Engine, ...
Web 2.0
erization

27. 5 Disruptive IT Trends in 2008
Software as a
Service
Cloud
Open Source Users are increasingly digital
Computing
natives that bring their own
technology and habits into
organizations. Resistance is
futile: it's usually better to
adapt than to ignore them.
Web 2.0
Consum- Ex: Web (port 80), Chat,
erization USB keys, external email
Skype, iPhone, ...

28. 5 Disruptive IT Trends in 2008
Software as a
Service
The web is a new
Open Source
Cloud programmable platform,
Computing putting data and users at its
core, enabling network
effects, mashing-up services,
in a perpetual beta version,
and relying on lightweight
business models.
Consum-
Web 2.0
erization
Ex: LinkedIn, MySpace,
Flickr, YouTube,
Wikipedia, ...

29. One more thing...
Cheap(er) devices are
Low cost
Low energy appearing that will take over
the usual PC / laptop
paradigm. Wireless
communication is changing
the way people work, live,
love, and relate to each other
through online applications.
Ex: OLPC, Eee-PC,
Advanced cell phones, ...

30. Disruptive IT Trends in 2008
Software as a
Service
Cloud
Open Source
Computing
+ Low cost
Low energy
Consum-
Web 2.0
erization

31. Sources
● Examples and reports taken from the web, conferences, and personal
communications
● Gartner Group
● Wired
● Wikipedia