The primary purpose of software estimation is not to predict a project’s outcome; it is to determine whether a project’s targets are realistic enough to allow the project to be controlled to meet them ‒ Steve McConnell

1. Estimating Software Development
The primary purpose of software estimation is not to predict a project’s outcome; it is to
determine whether a project’s targets are realistic enough to allow the project to be controlled
to meet them ‒ Steve McConnell
§ “Believing is Seeing: Confirmation Bias Studies in Software Engineering, “Magne Jørgensen
and Efi Papatheocharous, 41st Euromicro Conference on Software Engineering and
Advanced Applications (SEAA)
§ “Numerical anchors and their strong effects on software development effort estimates,”
Erik Løhrea, and Magne Jørgensen, Simula Research Laboratory, Oslo.
§ “Review on Traditional and Agile Cost Estimation Success Factor in Software Development
Project,” Zulkefli Mansor, Saadiah Yahya, Noor Habibah Hj Arshad, International Journal on
New Computer Architectures and Their Applications (IJNCAA) 1(3): 942–952.
§ “Release Planning & Buffered MoSCoW Rules,” Dr. Eduardo Miranda Institute for Software
Research ASSE 2013 - 14th Argentine Symposium on Software Engineering / 42 JAIIO
(Argentine Conference on Informatics) September 16th, 2013, Cordoba, Argentina
§ “Fixed price without fixed specification,” Magne Jørgensen, Simula Research Laboratory, 15
March 2016.
§ “The Use of Precision of Software Development Effort Estimates to Communicate
Uncertainty,” Magne Jørgensen, Software Quality Days. The Future of Systems-and Software
Development. Springer International Publishing, 2016.
§ “The Influence of Selection Bias on Effort Overruns in Software Development Projects,”
Magne Jørgensen, Simula Research Laboratory & Institute of Informatics, University of Oslo.
§ “Software effort estimation terminology: The tower of Babel,” Stein Grimstad, Magne
Jørgensen, Kjetil Moløkken-Østvold, Information and Software Technology 48 (2006) 302–
310.
§ “Planning and Executing Time-Bound Projects,” Eduardo Miranda, IEEE Computer, March
2002, pp. 73 ‒ 78.
§ “When 90% Confidence Intervals are 50% Certain: On the Credibility of Credible Intervals,”
Karl Halvor Teigen and Magne Jørgensen, Applied Cognitive Psychology Applied Cognitive
Psychology, 19: 455–475 (2005).
§ “Software quality measurement,” Magne Jørgensen, Advances in Engineering Software 30
(1999) 907–912.
§ “Group Processes in Software Effort Estimation,” Kjetil Moløkken-østvold and Magne
Jørgensen, Empirical Software Engineering, 9, 315–334, 2004.
§ “Story Point Estimating,” Richard Carlson, ALEA, Agile and Lean Associates, 2013.
§ “Project Estimation in the Norwegian Software Industry – A Summary,” Kjetil Moløkken,
Magne Jørgensen, Sinan S. Tanilkan, Hans Gallis, Anette C. Lien, and Siw E. Hove, Simula
Research Laboratory.
§ “Software Estimation using a Combination of Techniques,” Klaus Nielsen, PM Virtual Library,
2013

2. Estimating Software Development
Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 34
§ “An Effort Prediction Interval Approach Based on the Empirical Distribution of Previous
Estimation Accuracy,” Magne Jørgensen and D. I. K. Sjøberg, Simula Research Laboratory,
Norway.
§ “Better Sure than Safe? Overconfidence in Judgment Based Software Development Effort
Prediction Intervals,” Magne Jørgensen, Karl Halvor Teigen, and Kjetil Moløkken-Østvold,
Journal of Systems and Software, February 2004
§ “The Impact of Irrelevant and Misleading Information on Software Development Effort
Estimates: A Randomized Controlled Field Experiment,” Magne Jørgensen and Stein
Grimstad, IEEE Transactions of Software Engineering, Volume 37, Issue 5, September ‒
October 2011.
§ “The Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle and Its Application to Software,” P. A. Laplante, ACM
SIGSOFT Software Engineering Notes, Vol. 15 No. 5 Oct 1990, Page 21.
§ “Experience With the Accuracy of Software Maintenance Task Effort Prediction Models,
Magne Jørgensen, IEEE Transactions On Software Engineering, Vol. 21, No. 8, August 1995.
§ “Conducting Realistic Experiments in Software Engineering,” Dag I. K. Sjøberg, Bente Anda,
Erik Arisholm, Tore Dybå, Magne Jørgensen, Amela Karahasanovic, Espen F. Koren and
Marek Vokác, International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering, 2002.
§ “Forecasting of software development work effort: Evidence on expert judgement and
formal models,” Magne Jørgensen, International Journal of Forecasting 23(3) pp. 449-462,
July 2004.
§ “Software effort estimation terminology: The tower of Babel,” Stein Grimstad, Magne
Jørgensen, Kjetil Moløkken-Østvold, Information and Software Technology, 48 (2006) 302–
310.
§ “A Systematic Review of Software Development Cost Estimation Studies,” Magne Jørgensen
and Martin Shepperd, IEEE Transactions On Software Engineering, Vol. 33, No. 1, January
2007.
§ “Towards a Fuzzy based Framework for Effort Estimation in Agile Software Development,”
Atef Tayh Raslan, Nagy Ramadan Darwish, and Hesham Ahmed Hefny, (IJCSIS) International
Journal of Computer Science and Information Security, Vol. 13, No. 1, 2015,
§ “Evaluation of Model Evaluation Criterion for Software Development Effort Estimation,” S.
K. Pillai, and M. K. Jeyakumar, International Journal of Electrical, Computer, Energetic,
Electronic and Communication Engineering, Vol: 9, No: 1, 2015.
§ “Modern Tools to Support DoD Software Intensive System of Systems Cost Estimation: A
DACS State-of-the-Art Report, August 2007
§ “Software Effort Estimation with Ridge Regression and Evolutionary Attribute Selection,” Efi
Papatheocharous , Harris Papadopoulos and Andreas S. Andreou, 3rd Artificial Intelligence
Techniques in Software Engineering Workshop, 7 October, 2010, Larnaca, Cyprus
§ “The Business of Software Estimation Is Not Evil: Reconciling agile approaches and project
estimates,” Phillip G. Armour, Communications of the ACM, January 2014, Vol. 57, No. 1.
§ “Analysis of Empirical Software Effort Estimation Models,” Saleem Basha and Dhavachelvan
P, (IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security, Vol. 7, No. 3,
2010,
§ “Empirical Estimation of Hybrid Model: A Controlled Case Study,” Sadaf Un Nisa and M.
Rizwan Jameel Qureshi, I.J., Information Technology and Computer Science, 2012, 8, 43–50.

3. Estimating Software Development
Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 35
§ “Identification of inaccurate effort estimates in agile software development,” Florian Raith,
Ingo Richter, Robert Lindermeier, and Gudrun Klinker, 2013 20th Asia-Pacific Software
Engineering Conference (APSEC)
§ “Efficient Indicators to Evaluate the Status of Software Development Effort Estimation
inside the Organizations,” Elham Khatibi and Roliana Ibrahim, International Journal of
Managing Information Technology (IJMIT), Vol. 4, No. 3, August 2012
§ “Modern Project Management: A New Forecasting Model to Ensure Project Success,” Iman
Attarzadeh and Ow Siew Hock, International Conference on Future Computer and
Communication, 2009.
§ “Using public domain metrics to estimate software development effort,” Ross Jeffery,
Melanie Ruhe, and Isabella Wieczorek, Proceedings. Seventh International Software Metrics
Symposium, 2001.
§ “What We Do and Don’t Know about Software Development Effort Estimation,” Magne
Jørgensen, IEEE Software, March / April 2014.
§ “A review of studies on expert estimation of software development effort,” Magne
Jørgensen, The Journal of Systems and Software 70 (2004) 37–60.
§ “How to Avoid Impact from Irrelevant and Misleading Information when Estimating
Software Development Effort,” Magne Jørgensen & Stein Grimstad, Simula Research
Laboratory.
§ “Avoiding Irrelevant and Misleading Information When Estimating Development Effort,”
Bente Anda , Hege Dreiem , Dag I. K. Sjøberg1, and Magne Jørgensen, IEEE Software,
Volume 25, Issues 3, May-June, 2008.
§ “Prediction of project outcome: The Application of Statistical Methods to Earned Value
Management and Earned Schedule Performance Indexes,” Walt Lipke, Ofer Zwikael, Kym
Henderson, and Frank Anbari, International Journal of Project Management, 27, pp. 400-
407, 2009
§ “The ROI of Agile VS. Traditional Methods? An Analysis of XP, TDD, Pair Programming, and
Scrum (Using Real Options),” Dr. David Rico, http://w.davidfrico.com/rico08b.pdf
§ “Exploring the ‘Planning Fallacy’: Why People Underestimate Their Task Completion Times.”
Roger Buehler, Dale Griffin, and Michael Ross, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,
Vol 67(3), Sep 1994, 366-38.
§ “Estimates, Uncertainty, and Risk,” Barbara Kitchenham and Stephen Linkman, University of
Keele, IEEE Software, May / June, 1997,
§ “Software Project Scheduling under Uncertainties,” Intaver Institute Inc.
§ “A Comparison of Software Project Overruns—Flexible versus Sequential Development
Models,” Kjetil Moløkken-Østvold and Magne Jørgensen, IEEE Transactions on Software
Engineering, Volume 31, Issue 9, September 2005.
§ “Cost Estimating Issues for MAIS Programs Using an Agile Approach for SW Development,”
Richard Mabe, 22 September 2015, DoD Agile Meeting: Enhancing Adoption of Agile
Software Development in DoD, September 2015, PARCA OSD.
§ “An Empirical Investigation on Effort Estimation in Agile Global Software Development,”
Ricardo Britto, Emilia Mendes, and Jurgen Borstler, 2015 IEEE 10th International Conference
on Global Software Engineering

4. Estimating Software Development
Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 36
§ “Planning, Estimating, and Monitoring Progress in Agile Systems Development
Environments,” Suzette S. Johnson, STC 2010.
§ “Improving Subjective Estimates Using Paired Comparisons,” Eduardo Miranda, IEEE
Software, January/February, 2001.
§ “A Comparison of Software Project Overruns—Flexible versus Sequential Development
Models,” Kjetil Moløkken-Østvold and Magne Jørgensen, IEEE Transactions on Software
Engineering, Volume 31, Issue 9, September 2005.
§ “Using Performance Indices to Evaluate the Estimate at Completion,” David Christensen,
Journal of Cost Analysis and Management, Spring 17–24.
§ “Reliability Improvement of Major Defense Acquisition Program Cost Estimates—Mapping
DoDAF to COSMO,” Ricardo Valerdi, Matthew Dabkowski, and Indrajeet Dixit, Systems
Engineering, Volume 18, Issue 4, 2015
§ “Fallacies and biases when adding effort estimates.” Magne Jørgensen,
https://www.simula.no/file/simulasimula2762pdf/download
§ “The Use of Precision of Software Development Effort Estimates to Communicate
Uncertainty,” Magne Jørgensen, Software Quality Days. The Future of Systems-and Software
Development. Springer.
§ “Communication of software cost estimates,” Magne Jørgensen,
https://www.simula.no/file/simulasimula2498pdf/download
§ “Relative Estimation of Software Development Effort: It Matters With What and How You
Compare,” Magne Jørgensen, IEEE Software (2013): 74-79.
§ “Reasons for Software Effort Estimation Error: Impact of Respondent Role, Information
Collection Approach, and Data Analysis Method Magne,” Jørgensen and Kjetil Moløkken-
Østvold, IEEE Transactions On Software Engineering, Vol. 30, No. 12, December 2004.
§ “Use Case Points: An estimation approach,” Gautam Banerjee, https://goo.gl/QcPmYd
§ “Software Cost Estimation Methods: A Review, “ Vahid Khatibi and Dayang N. A. Jawawi,
Journal of Emerging Trends in Computing and Information Sciences, Volume 2 No. 1.
§ “Software cost estimation,” Chapter 26, Software Engineering, 9th
Edition, Ian Sommerville,
2010.
§ “Estimating Development Time and Effort of Software Projects by using a Neuro-Fuzzy
Approach,” Venus Marza and Mohammad Teshnehlab, in Advanced Technologies, INTECH
Open, October 2009.
§ “Function Points, Use Case Points, Story Points: Observations From a Case Study,” Joe
Schofield, Alan W. Armentrout, and Regina M. Trujillo, CrossTalk: The Journal of Defense
Software Engineering, May–June 2013.
§ “Advanced Topics in Agile Estimating,” Mike Cohn, Mountain Goat Software
§ “Schedule Assessment Guide: Best Practices for Schedule Assessment,” GAO-16-89G.
§ Agile Estimating and Planning, Mike Cohn, Prentice Hall, 2006
§ ” A Bayesian Software Estimating Model Using a Generalized g-Prior Approach,” Sunita
Chulani and Bert Steece, Technical Report, USC-CSE-98515
§ “A Model for Software Development Effort and Cost Estimation,” Krishnakumar Pillai and
V.S. Sukumaran Nair, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, Vol. 23, No. 8, August
1997.

5. Estimating Software Development
Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 37
§ “An Alternative to the Rayleigh Curve Model for Software Development Effort,” F. N. Parr,
IEEE Transactions On Software Engineering, Vol. SE–6, NO. 3, May1980.
§ Fifty Quick Ideas to Improve Your User Stories, Gojko Adzix and David Evans,
http://leanpub.com/50quickideas
§ “The Use of Agile Surveillance Points: An Alternative to Milestone Reviews,” Richard “Dick”
Carlson, http://www.a2zalea.com/wp–content/uploads/2014/02/Agile–Surveillance–
Points_20140113.pdf
§ “A Planning Poker Tool for Supporting Collaborative Estimation in Distributed Agile
Development,” Fabio Calefato and Filippo Lanubile, ICSEA 2011, The Sixth International
Conference on Software Engineering Advances.
§ “An Effort Estimation Model for Agile Software Development,” Shahid Ziauddin, Kamal Tipu,
Shahrukh Zia, Advances in Computer Science and its Applications (ACSA) 314 Vol. 2, No. 1,
2012.
§ “Successful Solutions Through Agile Project Management,” ESI International White Paper,
2010.
§ “Towards a Fuzzy based Framework for Effort Estimation in Agile Software Development,”
Atef Tayh Raslan, Nagy Ramadan Darwish, and Hesham Ahmed Hefny, (IJCSIS) International
Journal of Computer Science and Information Security, Vol. 13, No. 1, 2015.
§ “Improving Subjective Estimations Using Paired Comparisons,” Eduardo Miranda, IEEE
Software Magazine, Vol. 18, No. 1, January 2001.
§ “Sprint Planning Optimization in Agile Data Warehouse Design,” Matteo Golfarelli, Stefano
Rizzi, and Elisa Turricchia, LNCS 7448, pp. 30–41, 2012.
§ “Effort Estimation in Global Software Development: A Systematic Literature Review,”
Ricardo Britto, Vitor Freitas, Emilia Mendes, and Muhammad Usman, IEEE 9th International
Conference on Global Software Engineering, 2014.
§ “An evaluation of the paired comparisons method for software sizing,” Eduardo Miranda,
Proceedings of the 2000 International Conference on Software Engineering.
§ “Protecting Software Development Projects Against Underestimation,” Eduardo Miranda
and Alain Abran, Project Management Journal, Volume 39, Issue 3, Pages 75-85, September,
2008.
§ “Sizing User Stories Using Paired Comparisons,” Eduardo Miranda, Pierre Bourque, and
Alain Abran, Information and Software Technology, Volume 51, Issue 9, September 2009,
Pages 1327–1337.
§ “Effort Estimation in Agile Software Development using Story Points,” Evita Coelho and
Anirban Basu, International Journal of Applied Information Systems (IJAIS), Volume 3,
Number 7, August 2012.
§ “A Model for Estimating Agile Project Schedule Acceleration,” Dan Ingold, Barry Boehm,
Supannika Koolmanojwong, and Jo Ann Lane, Center for Systems and Software Engineering,
University of Southern California, Los Angeles, 2013.
§ “Cost Estimation in Agile Development Projects,” Siobhan Keaveney and Kieran Conboy,
International Conference on Information Systems Development (ISD2011) Prato, Italy.
§ “Analysis of Empirical Software Effort Estimation Models,” Saleem Basha and Dhavachelvan
P, (IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security, Vol. 7, No. 3,
2010.

6. Estimating Software Development
Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 38
§ IT Project Estimation: A Practical Guide to Costing Software, Paul Coombs, Cambridge
University Press, 2003
§ “Replanning, Reprogramming, and Single Point Adjustments,”
July 2013, NAVY CEVM (Center for Earned Value Management).
§ “Software Cost Estimating for Iterative / Incremental Development Programs – Agile Cost
Estimating,” NASA CAS, July 2014.
§ “Distinguishing Two Dimensions of Uncertainty,” Craig Fox and Güllden Ülkümen,
Perspectives on Thinking, Judging, and Decision Making, Brun, W., Keren, G., Kirkeboen, G.,
& Montgomery, H. (Eds.). (2011). Oslo, Norway: Universitetsforlaget.
§ “Could Social Factors Influence the Effort Software Estimation?” Valentina Lenarduzzi, 7th
International Workshop on Social Software Engineering (SSE), At Bergamo (Italy),
September 2015.
§ “Object-Oriented Software Cost Estimation Methodologies Compared,” D. Gregory Foley &
Brenda K. Wetzel, Society of Cost Estimating and Analysis – International Society of
Parametric Analysts, 22 December 2011, pp 41-63.
§ “Fix Your Estimating Bad Habits,” Ted M. Young, http://www.slideshare.net/tedyoung/fix-
you-some-bad-estimation-habits
§ “How to Estimate and Agile Project,” Saunders Learning Center,
http://www.slideshare.net/FloydSaunders/how-to-estimate-an-agile-project
§ Software Cost Estimation Metrics Manual for Defense Systems, Bradford Clark and Richard
Madachy (editors), 2015.
§ “Metrics for Agile Projects: Finding the Right Tools for the Job,” ESI International,
https://www.projectsmart.co.uk/white–papers/metrics–for–agile–projects.pdf
§ “The Sprint Planning Meeting, Richard “Dick” Carlson, http://www.a2zalea.com/wp–
content/uploads/2014/02/SprintPlanningMeeting_20140118.pdf
§ “Software Development Estimation Biases: The Role of Interdependence,” Magne Jørgensen
and Stein Grimstad, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, Vol. 38, No. 3, May/June
2012.
§ “Managing Projects of Chaotic and Unpredictable Behavior,” Richard “Dick” Carlson,
http://www.a2zalea.com/wp–content/uploads/2014/02/Managing–Projects–of–Chaotic–
and–Unpredictable–Behavior_20140219.pdf
§ ‘Practical Guidelines for Expert-Judgement-Based Software Effort Estimation,” Magna
Jørgensen, IEEE Software, May/June 2005.
§ “How do you estimate on an Agile project?,” eBook, ThoughtWorks, https://goo.gl/ES5M3c
§ “Using the COSMIC Method to Estimate Agile User Stories,” Jean-Marc Desharnais, Luigi
Buglione, Bugra Kocatürk, Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Product
Focused Software Development and Process Improvement
§ “On the problem of the software cost function,” J. J. Dolado, Information and Software
Technology 43 (2001) 61–72.
§ Software Project Effort Estimation: Foundations and Best Practice Guidelines for Success,
2014th Edition, Adam Trendowicz and Ross Jeffery, Springer.
§ “Unit effects in project estimation: It matters whether you estimate in work-hours or
workdays,” Magne Jørgensen Journal of Systems and Software (2015).

7. Estimating Software Development
Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 39
§ “Estimating Software Development Effort based on Use Cases – Experiences from Industry,”
Bente Anda , Hege Dreiem , Dag I. K. Sjøberg1, and Magne Jørgensen, Proceedings of the 4th
International Conference on The Unified Modeling Language, Modeling Languages,
Concepts, and Tools, Pages 487-502
§ “A Neuro-Fuzzy Model with SEER-SEM for Software Effort Estimation,” Wei Lin Du, Danny
Ho, Luiz Fernando Capretz, 25th International Forum on COCOMO and Systems/Software
Cost Modeling, Los Angeles, CA, 2010.
§ “A Program Manager's Guide For Software Cost Estimating,” Andrew L. Dobbs, Naval
Postgraduate School, December 2002.
§ “An Engineering Context For Software Engineering,” Richard D. Riehle, September 2008,
Naval Postgraduate School.
§ “Application of Real Options theory to software engineering for strategic decision making in
software related capital investments,” Albert O. Olagbemiro, Monterey, California. Naval
Postgraduate School, 2008.
§ “Next Generation Software Estimating Framework: 25 Years and Thousands of Projects
Later,” Michael A. Ross, Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics, Volume 1, 2008 - Issue 2.
§ “A Probabilistic Method for Predicting Software Code Growth,” Michael A. Ross, Journal of
Cost Analysis and Parametrics, Volume 4, 2011 - Issue 2
§ “Application of selected software cost estimating models to a tactical communications
switching system: tentative analysis of model applicability to an ongoing development
program,” William B. Collins, Naval Postgraduate School
§ “An examination of project management and control requirements and alternatives at
FNOC,” Charlotte Ruth Gross, Naval Postgraduate School.
§ “Software cost estimation through Bayesian inference of software size, In Kyoung Park,
Naval Postgraduate School.
§ “Using the agile development methodology and applying best practice project management
processes,” Gary R. King, Naval Postgraduate School.
§ “Calibrating Function Points Using Neuro-Fuzzy Technique,” Vivian Xia Danny Ho Luiz F.
Capretz, 21st International Forum on Systems, Software and COCOMO Cost Modeling,
Washington, 2006.
§ Practical Software Project Estimation: A Toolkit for Estimating Software Development Effort
& Duration, Peter Hill, International Software Benchmarking Standards Group.
§ Software Estimation Best Practices, Tools & Techniques: A Complete Guide for Software
Project Estimators, Murali K. Chemuturi, J. Ross Publishing, August 2009.
§ Software Project Cost and Schedule Estimating: Best Practices, William H. Roetzheim,
Prentice Hall.
§ Estimating the Scope of Software Projects Using Statistics, Louis Newstrom, Louis Newstrom
Publisher, December 4, 2015.
§ “Organizational Structure Impacts Flight Software Cost Risk,” Jairus M. Hihn , Karen Lum,
and Erik Monson, Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics, Volume 2, 2009 - Issue 1.
§ “Estimate of the appropriate Sprint length in agile development by conducting simulation,”
Ryushi Shiohama, Hironori Washizaki, Shin Kuboaki, Kazunori Sakamoto, and Yoshiaki
Fukazawa, 2012 Agile Conference, 13-17 August 2012, Dallas Texas

8. Estimating Software Development
Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 40
§ “Advancement of decision making in Agile Projects by applying Logistic Regression on
Estimates,” Lakshminarayana Kompella, 2013 IEEE 8th International Conference on Global
Software Engineering Workshops.
§ “Estimating in Actual Time,” Moses M. Hohman, IEEE Proceedings of the Agile Development
Conference (ADC’05), Denver, Colorado 24-29 July, 2005
§ “Cost Estimation In Agile Development Projects,” Siobhan Keaveney and Kieran Conboy,
ECIS 2006 Proceedings
§ “Coping with the Cone of Uncertainty: An Empirical Study of the SAIV Process Model,” Da
Yang, Barry Boehm , Ye Yang, Qing Wang, and Mingshu Li, ICSP 2007, LNCS 4470, pp. 37–48,
2007
§ “Combining Estimates with Planning Poker – An Empirical Study,” Kjetil Moløkken-Østvold
and Nils Christian Haugen, Proceedings of the 2007 Australian Software Engineering
Conference (ASWEC'07).
§ “A Case Study Research on Software Cost Estimation Using Experts’ Estimates, Wideband
Delphi, and Planning Poker Technique,” Taghi Javdani Gandomani , Koh Tieng Wei, and
Abdulelah Khaled Binhamid, International Journal of Software Engineering and Its
Applications, Vol. 8, No. 11 (2014), pp. 173-182.
§ “Algorithmic Based and Non-Algorithmic Based Approaches to Estimate the Software
Effort,” WanJiang Han , TianBo Lu , XiaoYan Zhang , LiXin Jiang and Weijian Li, International
Journal of Multimedia and Ubiquitous Engineering, Vol. 10, No. 4 (2015), pp. 141-154.
§ “Reducing Estimation Uncertainty with Continuous Assessment: Tracking the 'Cone of
Uncertainty’” Pongtip Aroonvatanaporn, Chatchai Sinthop and Barry Boehm, Center for
Systems and Software Engineering University of Southern California Los Angeles, CA 90089,
ASE’10, September 20–24, 2010, Antwerp, Belgium, 2010.
§ “Integrated Approach of Software Project Size Estimation,” Brajesh Kumar Singh, Akash
Punhani, and A. K. Misra, International Journal of Software Engineering and Its Applications
Vol. 10, No. 2 (2016), pp. 45-64.
§ “Investigating the Effect of Using Methodology on Development Effort in Software
Projects,” Vahid B. Khatibi, Dayang N. A. Jawawi, and Elham Khatibi, International Journal of
Software Engineering and Its Applications Vol. 6, No. 2, April, 2012.
§ “Data-Driven Decision Making as a Tool to Improve Software Development Productivity,”
Mary Erin Brown, Walden University, 2013
§ “Applying Agile Practices to Space-Based Software Systems,” Arlene Minkiewicz, Software
Technology Conference, Long Beach, CA 31 March – 3 April, 2014
§ “Estimating the Effort Overhead in Global Software Development,” Ansgar Lamersdorf,
Jurgen Munch, Alicia Fernandez-del Viso Torre, Carlos Rebate Sanchez, and Dieter Rombach,
2010 5th IEEE International Conference on Global Software Engineering
§ “A Proposed Framework for Software Effort Estimation Using the Combinational Approach
of Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks,” Pawandeep Kaur and Rupinder Singh, International
Journal of Hybrid Information Technology Vol. 8, No. 10 (2015), pp. 73-80.
§ “Software Estimating Rules of Thumb,” Capers Jones,
http://www.compaid.com/caiinternet/ezine/capers-rules.pdf

9. Estimating Software Development
Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 41
§ “Why Are Estimates Always Wrong: Estimation Bias and Strategic Misestimation,” Daniel D.
Galorath, http://www.iceaaonline.com/ready/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/RI03-Paper-
Galorath-Estimates-Always-Wrong.pdf
§ “Using planning poker for combining expert estimates in software projects,” K. Moløkken-
Østvold, N. C. Haugen, and H. C. Benestad, Journal of Systems and Software, vol. 81, issue
12 (2008) pp. 2106–2117.
§ “Effort Distribution to Estimate Cost in Small to Medium Software Development Project
with Use Case Points,” Putu Linda Primandari and Sholiq, The Third Information Systems
International Conference, 2015
§ “Estimation of IT-Projects Highlights of a Workshop,” Manfred Bundschuh, Metrics News,
Vol. 4, Nr. 2, December 1999, pp. 29 – 37,
https://www.itmpi.org/Portals/10/PDF/bundschuh-est.pdf
§ “Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class
Forecasting in Practice,” Bent Flyvbjerg, European Planning Studies Vol. 16, No. 1, January
2008.
§ “The Use of Precision of Software Development Effort Estimates to Communicate
Uncertainty,” Magne Jørgensen, Software Quality Days. The Future of Systems-and Software
Development. Springer International Publishing, 2016.
§ “Numerical anchors and their strong effects on software development effort estimates,”
Erik Løhrea, and Magne Jørgensen, Journal of Systems and Software (2015).
§ “A Neuro-Fuzzy Model for Function Point Calibration,” Wei Xia, Danny Ho, and Luiz
Fernando Capretz, WSEAS, Transactions On Information Science & Applications, Issue 1,
Volume 5, January 2008.
§ “Unit effects in project estimation: It matters whether you estimate in work-hours or
workdays,” Magne Jørgensen, Journal of Systems and Software (2015),
https://www.simula.no/file/time-unit-effect-woauthorinfpdf/download
§ “Fallacies and biases when adding effort estimates,” Magne Jørgensen, Proceedings at
Euromicro/SEEA. : IEEE, 2014.
§ “How Does Project Size Affect Cost Estimation Error? Statistical Artifacts and
Methodological Challenges,” International Journal of Project Management 30 (2012): 751-
862, https://www.simula.no/file/simulasimula742pdf/download
§ “Does the Use of Fibonacci Numbers in Planning Poker Affect Effort Estimates?” Ritesh
Tamrakar and Magne Jørgensen, 16th International Conference on Evaluation & Assessment
in Software Engineering, 2012.
§ “Using inferred probabilities to measure the accuracy of imprecise forecasts,” Paul Lehner,
Avra Michelson, Leonard Adelman, and Anna Goodman, Judgment and Decision Making,
Vol. 7, No. 6, November 2012, pp. 728–740.
§ “Software Development Effort Estimation: Why it fails and how to improve it,” Magne
Jørgensen, Simula Research Laboratory & University of Oslo,
https://www.simula.no/file/simulasimula1688pdf/download
§ Contrasting Ideal and Realistic Conditions As a Means to Improve Judgment-Based Software
Development Effort Estimation,” Magne Jørgensen, Information and Software
Technology 53 (2011): 1382-1390.

10. Estimating Software Development
Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 42
§ Software Effort Estimation as Collaborative Planning Activity Kristin Børte,
https://www.simula.no/file/simulasimula1226pdf/download
§ “Human judgment in planning and estimation of software projects,”
https://www.simula.no/file/simulasimula886pdf/download
§ “Guideline for Sizing Agile Projects with COSMIC,” Sylvie Trudel and Luigi Buglione,
http://cosmic-sizing.org/publications/guideline-for-sizing-agile-projects-with-cosmic
§ “The COSMIC Functional Size Measurement Method, Version 3.0.1, Guideline for the use of
COSMIC FSM to manage Agile projects, VERSION 1.0,” September 2011, http://cosmic-
sizing.org/cosmic-method-v3-0-1-agile-projects-guideline-v1-0/
§ “Using the COSMIC Method to Evaluate the Quality of the Documentation of Agile User
Stories,” Jean-Marc Desharnais, Buğra Kocatürk, and Alain Abran, Proceedings of the 12th
International Conference on Product Focused Software Development and Process
Improvement, Pages 68-73
§ “An Empirical Study of Using Planning Poker for User Story Estimation,” Nils C. Haugen,
Proceedings of AGILE 2006 Conference (AGILE’06).
§ “A Framework for the Analysis of Software Cost Estimation Accuracy,” Stein Grimstad and
Magne Jørgensen, ISESE'06, September 21–22, 2006.
§ “An Empirical Investigation on Effort Estimation in Agile Global Software Development,”
Ricardo Britto, Emilia Mendes, and Jurgen Borstler, 2015 IEEE 10th International Conference
on Global Software Engineering
§ “Software Effort Estimation: Unstructured Group Discussion as a Method to Reduce
Individual Biases,” Kjetil Moløkken and Magne Jørgensen, Incremental and Component-
Based Software Development October 2003, University of Oslo.
§ “A Case Study on Agile Estimating and Planning using Scrum,” V. Mahnic, Electronics And
Electrical Engineering, 2011. No. 5(111).
§ “Review on Traditional and Agile Cost Estimation Success Factor in Software Development
Project,” Zulkefli Mansor, Saadiah Yahya, Noor Habibah Hj Arshad, International Journal on
New Computer Architectures and Their Applications (IJNCAA) 1(3): 942-952.
§ “A Collective Study of PCA and Neural Network based on COCOMO for Software Cost
Estimation,” Rina M. Waghmode, L.V. Patil, and S.D Joshi, International Journal of Computer
Applications (0975 – 8887) Volume 74– No. 16, July 2013.
§ “iUCP: Estimating Interactive-Software Project Size with Enhanced Use-Case Points,” Nuno
Jardim Nunes, Larry Constantine, and Rick Kazman, IEEE Software, Issue No. 04 - July/August
(2011 vol. 28)
§ “Estimating Software Project Effort Using Analogies,” Martin Shepperd and Chris Schofield,
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SOFTWARE ENGINEERING, VOL. 23, NO. 12, NOVEMBER 1997.
§ “Software Engineering Economics,” Barry W. Boehm, Software Information Systems
Division, TRW Defense Systems Group, Redondo Beach, CA 90278
§ “Adapting, Correcting, and Perfecting Software Estimates: A Maintenance Metaphor,” Tarek
K. Abdel-Hamid, IEEE Computer, March 1993.
§ “Estimating software projects,” R. Agarwal, Manish Kumar t, Yogesh, S. Mallick, RM.
Bharadwaj, D. Anantwar, ACM Software Engineering Notes Vol 26 No. 4 July 2001, Pg. 6.

11. Estimating Software Development
Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 43
§ “Cost estimation in agile development projects,” Siobhan Keaveney and Kieran Conboy,
Proceedings of the Fourteenth European Conference on Information Systems, ECIS 2006,
Göteborg, Sweden, 2006.
§ “Managing Uncertainty in Agile Release Planning,” K. McDaid, D. Greer, F. Keenan, P. Prior,
P. Taylor, G. Coleman, Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Software
Engineering & Knowledge Engineering (SEKE'2006).
§ “Research Challenges of Agile Estimation,” Rashmi Popli, Dr. Naresh Chauhan, International
Journal of IT & Knowledge Management, Volume 7 • Number 1 • December 2013 pp. 108-
111 (ISSN 0973-4414),
§ “Allowing for Task Uncertainties and Dependencies in Agile Release Planning,” Kevin Logue,
Kevin McDaid, and Des Greer,
§ “Agile Software Development in Large Organizations, ” Mikael Lindvall, Dirk Muthig, Aldo
Dagnino Christina Wallin, Michael Stupperich, David Kiefer, John May, adn Tuomo
Kähkönen, IEEE Computer, December 2004.
§ "Adoption of Team Estimation in a Specialist Organizational Environment,“ Tor Erlend Fægri,
Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing · June 2010
§ “The Relationship between Customer Collaboration and Software Project Overruns,” Kjetil
Moløkken-Østvold and Kristian Marius Furulund, IEEE Agile Conference, 13-17 August, 2007.
§ “Improving Estimations in Agile Projects: Issues and Avenues,” Luigi Buglione, Alain Abran,
Proceedings Software Measurement European Forum (SMEF) 2007.
§ “Allowing for Task Uncertainties and Dependencies in Agile Release Planning,” Kevin Logue,
Kevin McDaid, and Des Geer, Proceedings Software Measurement European Forum (SMEF)
2007.
§ “Fundamental uncertainties in projects and the scope of project management,” Roger
Atkinson , Lynn Crawford, and Stephen Ward, International Journal of Project Management
24 (2006) 687–698.
§ “Improving estimation accuracy by using Case Based Reasoning and a combined estimation
approach,” Srinivasa Gopal and Meenakshi D’Souza, Proceedings of ISEC '12, Feb. 22-25,
2012.
§ “Effort Estimation in Agile Software Development: A Systematic Literature Review,”
Muhammad Usman , Emilia Mendes , Francila Weidt , and Ricardo Britto, Proceedings of the
10th International Conference on Predictive Models in Software Engineering, 2014, Pages
82-91
§ “Incremental effort prediction models in Agile Development using Radial Basis Functions ,”
Raimund Moser, Witold Pedrycz , and Giancarlo Succi, SEKE 2007
§ “Applying Combined Efforts of Resource Capability of Project Teams for Planning and
Managing Contingency Reserves for Software and Information Engineering Projects,” Peter
H. Chang, GSTF Journal on Computing (JoC) Vol. 2 No. 3, October 2012.
§ Evidence-Based Software Engineering and Systematic Reviews, Barbara Ann Kitchenham,
David Budgen and Pearl Brereton, November 5, 2015
§ “The Signal and the Noise in Cost Estimating,” Christian B. Smart, Ph.D., 2016 International
Training Symposium, Bristol England, 2016.
§ Estimating Software Intensive Systems: Project, Products, and Processes, Richard Stutzke,
Addison Wesley.

12. Estimating Software Development
Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 44
§ Estimating Software Costs: Bringing Realism to Estimating, 2nd Edition, Capers Jones,
McGraw Hill
§ Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art, Steve McConnell, Microsoft Press.
§ Software Metrics: A Rigorous and Practical Approach, 3rd Edition, Norman Fenton and Janes
Bieman, CRC Press.
§ Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Systems Engineering Perspective, Paul
R. Garvey, CRC Press.
§ Forecasting and Simulating Software Development Projects: Effective Modeling of Kanban &
Scrum Projects using Monte-Carlo Simulation, Troy Magennis, CreateSpace Independent
Publishing Platform, October 25, 2011.
§ “Effort estimation for Agile Software Development Projects,” Andreas Schmietendorf,
Martin Kunz, Reiner Dumke, Proceedings 5th Software Measurement European Forum,
Milan 2008.
§ “The QUELCE Method: Using Change Drivers To Estimate Program Costs,” Sarah Sheard,
April 2016, Software Engineering Institute.
§ “Software Cost and Schedule Estimating: A Process Improvement Initiative,” Robert Park,
Wolfhart Goethert, J. Todd Webb, Special Report CMU/SEI-94-SR-3 May 1994.
§ “Organizational Considerations for the Estimating Process,” Bob Ferguson, Software
Engineering Institute, November, 2004.
§ “A Parametric Analysis of Project Management Performance to Enhance Software
Development Process,” N. R. Shashikumar, T. R. Gopalakrishnan Nair, Suma V, IEEE
International Conference on Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (ICARET -
2013)
§ “Checklists and Criteria for Evaluating the Cost and Schedule Estimating Capabilities of
Software Organizations,” Robert E. Park, CMU/SEI-95-SR-005
§ “A Manager's Checklist for Validating Software Cost and Schedule Estimates,” Robert E.
Park, Special Report CMU/SEI-95-SR-004 January 1995.
§ ACE Accurate Confident Estimating TSP Symposium November 4, 2014 Pittsburgh, PA, Team
Software Process (TSP) Symposium, 4 Nov 2014, SEI Carnegie Mellon University
§ How to Lie with Statistics, Darrell Huff, W. W. Norton, 1954
§ “A Simulation and Evaluation of Earned Value Metrics to Forecast the Project Duration,”
Mario Vanhoucke and Stephan Vandevoorde, The Journal of the Operational Research
Society, Vol. 58, No. 10 (Oct., 2007), pp. 1361-1374
§ “Avoid Software Project Horror Stories: Check the Reality Value of the Estimate First!”,
Harold van Herringen, ICEAA 2014
§ COSMIC: Guideline for Sizing Business Software, Version 3, http://www.etsmtl.ca/Unites-
de-recherche/GELOG/accueil
§ “Factors Affecting Duration And Effort Estimation Errors In Software Development
Projects,” Ofer Morgenshtern, Tzvi Raz, and Dov Dvir, Working Paper No 8/2005, Henry
Crown Institute of Business Research, Israel. http://recanati-
bs.tau.ac.il/Eng/?CategoryID=444&ArticleID=747
§ “An Empirical Validation of Software Cost Estimation Models,” Chris F. Kemerer, Research
Contributions, Management of Computing, Communications of the ACM , May 1987,
Volume 30, Number 5.

13. Estimating Software Development
Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 45
§ “A Decision Support System To Choose Optimal Release Cycle Length In Incremental
Software Development Environments,” Avnish Chandra Suman, Saraswati Mishra, and
Abhinav Anand, International Journal of Software Engineering & Applications (IJSEA), Vol.7,
No.5, September 2016.
§ “Protecting Software Development Projects Against Underestimation,” Eduardo Miranda,
Alain Abran, École de technologie supérieure - Université du Québec,
http://mse.isri.cmu.edu/software-engineering/documents/faculty-
publications/miranda/mirandaprotectingprojectsagainstunderestimations.pdf
§ “Improving Subjective Estimates Using Paired Comparisons,” Eduardo Miranda, IEEE
Software, January/February 2001.
§ “Improving Estimations in Agile Projects: Issues and Avenues,” Luigi Buglione, Alain Abran,
Software Measurement European Forum – SMEF2007, Rome (Italy), May 8-11, 2007.
§ “Estimation of Software Development Effort from Requirements Based Complexity,” Ashish
Sharma , Dharmender Singh Kushwaha, 2nd International Conference on Computer,
Communication, Control and Information Technology (C3IT 2012), February 25 - 26, 2012
§ “Estimating the Test Volume and Effort for Testing and Verification & Validation,” Alain
Abran, Juan Garbajosa, , Laila Cheikhi1, First Annual ESA Workshop on Spacecraft Data
Systems and Software - SDSS 2005, ESTEC, Noordwijk, European Space Agency, Netherlands,
17-20 October 2005.
§ “A General Empirical Solution to the Macro Software Sizing and Estimating Problem,”
Lawrence H. Putnam, IEEE Transactions On Software Engineering, VOL. SE-4, NO. 4, JULY
1978.
§ “A Comparison of Software Cost, Duration, and Quality for Waterfall vs. Iterative and
Incremental Development: A Systematic Review,” Susan M. Mitchell and Carolyn B. Seaman,
Third International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering and Measurement, 2009.
§ Software Sizing and Estimating: MK II FPA, Charles R. Symons, John Wiley and Sons, 1991
§ “A Review of Surveys on Software Effort Estimation,” Kjetil Molkken and Magne
Jorgensen, Proceeding of International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering, ISESE
'03.
§ “Accurate Estimates Without Local Data?” Tim Menzies, Steve Williams, Oussama Elrawas,
Daniel Baker, Barry Boehm, Jairus Hihn, Karen Lum, and Ray Madachy, Software Process
Improvement And Practice, (2009).
§ “An Assessment and Comparison of Common Software Cost Estimation Modeling
Techniques,” Lionel C. Briand, Khaled El Emam, Dagmar Surmann, Isabella Wieczorek, and
Katrina D. Maxwell, Proceedings of the 21st international conference on Software
engineering, Pg. 313-322
§ “The Probable Lowest-Cost Alternative According to Borda,” Neal D. Hulkower, Journal of
Cost Analysis and Parametrics, 3:2, 29-36
§ “An Efficient Approach for Agile Web Based Project Estimation: AgileMOW,” Ratnesh
Litoriya and Abhay Kothari, Journal of Software Engineering and Applications, 2013, 6, 297-
303.
§ “Corad Agile Method for Agile Software Cost Estimation,” Govind Singh Rajput and Ratnesh
Litoriya, http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1100579

14. Estimating Software Development
Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 46
§ “A Baseline Model for Software Effort Estimation,” Peter A. Whigham, Caitlin A. Owen, and
Stephen G. MacDonell, ACM Transaction on Software Engineering Methodology, 24, 3,
Article 20 (May 2015).
§ Agile Product Management: Agile Estimating & Planning Your Sprint with Scrum and Release
Planning 21 Steps, Paul Vii, Create Space, 2016
§ “Core Estimating Concepts,” William Roetzheim, CrossTalk: The Journal of Defense Software
Engineering—January/February 2013.
§ “A Practical Approach to Size Estimation of Embedded Software Components,” Kenneth
Lind and Rogardt Heldal, IEEE Transactions On Software Engineering, Vol. 38, No. 5,
September/October 2012.
§ “A Probabilistic Model for Predicting Software Development Effort,” Parag C. Pendharkar,
Girish H. Subramanian, and James A. Rodger, IEEE Transactions On Software Engineering,
Vol. 31, No. 7, July 2005.
§ “A Pattern Language for Estimating,” Dmitry Nikelshpur, PLoP '11 Proceedings of the 18th
Conference on Pattern Languages of Programs, Article No. 17.
§ “Do Estimators Learn? On the Effect of a Positively Skewed Distribution of Effort Data on
Software Portfolio Productivity,” Hennie Huijgens and Frank Vogelezang, 7th International
Workshop on Emerging Trends in Software Metrics, 2016.
§ “The Inaccurate Conception: Some thoughts on the accuracy of estimates,” Phillip G.
Armour, Communications Of The ACM, March 2008/Vol. 51, No. 3
§ “Understanding Software Project Estimates,” Katherine Baxter, Cross Talk The Journal of
Defense Software Engineering, March/April 2009,
§ “Validation Methods for Calibrating Software Effort Models,” Tim Menzies, Dan Port, Zhihao
Chen, and Jairus Hihn, May 15–21, 2005, http://menzies.us/pdf/04coconut.pdf
§ “Requirements Instability in Cost Estimation,” Abiha Batool, Sabika Batool, and Mohammad
Ayub Latif,
https://www.academia.edu/4493828/Requirements_Instability_in_Cost_Estimation
§ “Negative Results for Software Effort Estimation Tim Menzies, Ye Yang, George Mathew,
Barry Boehm, Jairus Hihn, EMSE 2016.
§ “Creating Requirements-Based Estimates Before Requirements Are Complete,” Carol A.
Dekkers, Cross Talk The Journal of Defense Software Engineering, April 2005.
§ “Rational Cost Estimation of Dedicated Software Systems,” Beata Czarnacka-Chrobot,
Journal of Software Engineering and Applications, 2012, 5, 262-269.
§ “Summarization of Software Cost Estimation,” Xiaotie Qina and Miao Fang, Advances in
Control Engineering and Information Science, 2011
§ “Software Project Development Cost Estimation,” Barbara Kitchenham, The Journal of
Systems and Software 3, 267-278 (1985).
§ “Cost Estimation in Agile Software Development Projects,” Michael Lang, Kieran Conboy
and Siobhán Keaveney, International Conference on Information Systems Development
(ISD2011) Prato, Italy.
§ “Project Estimating and Scheduling,” Terry Boult, University of Colorado, Colorado Springs,
CS 330 Software Engineering.
§ “Practical Guidelines for Expert-Judgment-Based Software Effort Estimation,” Magne
Jørgensen, IEEE Software, May/June 2005.

15. Estimating Software Development
Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 47
§ “Predicting Software Projects Cost Estimation Based on Mining Historical Data,” Hassan
Najadat, Izzat Alsmadi, and Yazan Shboul, ISRN Software Engineering, Volume 2012, Article
ID 823437.
§ “Models for Improving Software System Size Estimates during Development,” William W.
Agresti, William M. Evanco, William M. Thomas, Journal of Software Engineering &
Applications, 2010, 3: 1-10.
§ “Requirements Engineering for Agile Methods,” Alberto Sillitti and Giancarlo Succi, in
Engineering and Managing Software Requirements, pp. 306-326, Springer, 2005.
§ “A Method for Improving Developers’ Software Size Estimates,” Lawrence H. Putnam,
Douglas T. Putnam, and Donald M. Beckett, Cross Talk The Journal of Defense Software
Engineering, April 2005.
§ “PERT, CPM, and Agile Project Management,” Robert C. Martin 5 October 2003,
http://www.codejournal.com/public/cj/previews/PERTCPMAGILE.pdf
§ “Reliability and accuracy of the estimation process Wideband Delphi vs. Wisdom of
Crowds,” Marek Grzegorz Stochel, 35th IEEE Annual Computer Software and Applications
Conference, 2011
§ “Predicting development effort from user stories,” P. Abrahamsson, I. Fronza, R. Moser, J.
Vlasenko, and W. Pedrycz, International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering and
Measurement, 2011
§ “Effort prediction in iterative software development processes - incremental versus global
prediction models,” Pekka Abrahamsson, Raimund Moser, Witold Pedrycz, Alberto Sillitti,
Giancarlo Succi, First International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering and
Measurement, 2007.
§ “Planning Poker or How to avoid analysis paralysis while release planning,” James Grenning,
https://wingman-sw.com/papers/PlanningPoker-v1.1.pdf
§ “Agile Estimation using CAEA: A Comparative Study of Agile Projects,” Shilpa Bhalerao ,
Maya Ingle, 2009 International Conference on Computer Engineering and Applications
IPCSIT, Vol.2 (2011).
§ “A Bayesian approach to improve estimate at completion in earned value management,”
Franco Caron, Fabrizio Ruggeri, and Alessandro Merli, Project Management Institute
Journal, Vol. 44, No. 1, pp. 3-16. 2013.
§ “An Empirical Approach for Estimation of the Software Development Effort,” Amit Kumar
Jakhar and Kumar Rajnish, International Journal of Multimedia and Ubiquitous Engineering,
Vol. 10, No. 2 (2015), pp. 97-110.
§ “Forecasting of Software Development Work Effort: Evidence on Expert Judgment and
Formal Models,” Magne Jørgensen, International Journal of Forecasting, 2007
§ Software Project Effort Estimation Foundations and Best Practice Guidelines for Success,
Adam Trendowicz and Ross Jeffery, Springer 2014.
§ “Agile Release Planning: Dealing with Uncertainty in Development Time and Business
Value,” Kevin Logue and Kevin McDaid, 15th Annual IEEE International Conference and
Workshop on the Engineering of Computer Based Systems, March 31 – April 4, 2008.
§ “Why Are Estimates Always Wrong: Estimation Bias and Strategic Misestimation,” Daniel D.
Galorath, AIAA SPACE 2015 Conference and Exposition Pasadena, California, 2015.

16. Estimating Software Development
Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 48
§ “Estimation of Project Size Using User Stories,” Murad Ali, Zubair A Shaikh , Eaman Ali,
International Conference on Recent Advances in Computer Systems (RACS 2015).
§ “A Survey of Agile Software Estimation Methods,” Hala Hamad Osman and Mohamed
Elhafiz Musa, International Journal of Computer Science and Telecommunications, Volume
7, Issue 3, March 2016.
§ “Why Can’t People Estimate: Estimation Bias and Mitigation,” Dan Galorath, IEEE Software
Technology Conference, October 12-15, 2015
Hilton Hotel, Long Beach California
§ “Cost-Effective Supervised Learning Models for Software Effort Estimation in Agile
Environments,” Kayhan Moharreri, Alhad Vinayak Sapre, Jayashree Ramanathan, and Rajiv
Ramnath, 40th Annual IEEE Computer Software and Applications Conference (COMPSAC),
2016
§ “A Review of Surveys on Software Effort Estimation,” Kjetil Moløkken and Magne Jørgensen,
http://folk.uio.no/isu/INCO/Papers/Review_final8.pdf
§ “Project Duration Forecasting Using Earned Value Method and Time Series,” Khandare
Manish A., Vyas Gayatri S., International Journal of Engineering and Innovative Technology
(IJEIT) Volume 1, Issue 4, April 2012.
§ “Integrating Risk Assessment and Actual Performance for Probabilistic Project Cost
Forecasting: A Second Moment Bayesian Model,” Byung-Cheol Kim, IEEE Transactions On
Engineering Management, Vol. 62, No. 2, May 2015.
§ “A study of project selection and feature weighting for analogy based software cost
estimation,” Y.F. Li , M. Xie, and T.N. Goh, The Journal of Systems and Software 82 (2009)
241–252.
§ “Complementing Measurements and Real Options Concepts to Support InterSprint
Decision-Making in Agile Projects,” Zornitza Racheva , Maya Daneva, Luigi Buglione, 34th
Euromicro Conference Software Engineering and Advanced Applications
§ “Software Cost Estimation and Sizing Methods: Issues and Guidelines,” Shari Lawrence
Pfleeger, Felicia Wu, and Rosalind Lewis, RAND Corporation, Project Air Force, 2005.
§ “Anchoring and Adjustment in Software Estimation,” Jorge Aranda and Steve Easterbrook,
ESEC-FSE’05, September 5–9, 2005, Lisbon, Portugal.
§ “Cycle Time Analytics: Making Decision using lead Time and Cycle Time to avoid needing
estimates for every story,” Troy Magennis, LKCE 2013 ‒ Modern Management Methods,
§ “Probabilistic Forecasting Decision Making: When Do You Want it?” Larry Maccherone,
http://www.hanssamios.com/dokuwiki/_media/larry-maccherone-probabilistic-decision-
making.pdf
§ “Software Project Planning for Robustness and Completion Time in the Presence of
Uncertainty using Multi Objective Search Based Software Engineering,” Stefan Gueorguiev,
Mark Harman, and Giuliano Antoniol, GECCO’09, July 8–12, 2009, Montréal Québec,
Canada.
§ “Empirical Validation of Neural Network Models for Agile Software Effort Estimation based
on Story Points,” Aditi Panda, Shashank Mouli Satapathy, and Santanu Kumar Rath, 3rd
International Conference on Recent Trends in Computing 2015 (ICRTC-2015).
§ “When 90% Confidence Intervals are 50% Certain: On the Credibility of Credible Intervals,”
Karl Halvor Teigen and Magne Jørgensen, Applied Cognitive Psychology, 19: 455–475 (2005)

17. Estimating Software Development
Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 49
§ “Scaling Agile Estimation Methods with a Parametric Cost Model,” Carl Friedrich Kreß,
Oliver Hummel, Mahmudul Huq, ICSEA 2014 : The Ninth International Conference on
Software Engineering Advances, 2014
§ “Expert Estimation and Historical Data: An Empirical Study,” Gabriela Robiolo, Silvana
Santos, and Bibiana Rossi, ICSEA 2013 : The Eighth International Conference on Software
Engineering Advances
§ “Agile Monitoring Using The Line Of Balance,” Eduardo Miranda, Institute for Software
Research – Carnegie-Mellon University and Pierre Bourque, École de technologie supérieure
– Université du Québec
§ “Managerial Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty,” Ari Riabacke, IAENG
International Journal of Computer Science, 32:4, IJCS_32_4_12
§ “Simple Method Proposal for Cost Estimation from Work Breakdown Structure,” Sérgio
Sequeira and Eurico Lopes, Conference on ENTERprise Information Systems / International
Conference on Project Management/ Conference on Health and Social Care Information
Systems and Technologies, CENTERIS / ProjMAN / HCist 2015 October 7-9, 2015.
§ “From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right,” Bent Flyvbjerg, Aalborg
University, Denmark, Project Management Journal, vol. 37, no. 3, August 2006, pp. 5-15.
§ “The Uncertainty Principle in Software Engineering,” Hadar Ziv and Debra Richardson, ICSE
97, 9th
International Conference on Software Engineering, Boston MA, 17 ‒ 23 May, 1997
§ “Analyzing Software Effort Estimation using k means Clustered Regression Approach,”
Geeta Nagpal, Moin Uddin, and Arvinder Kaur, ACM SIGSOFT Software Engineering Notes,
January 2013 Volume 38 Number 1.
§ “Assuring Software Cost Estimates: Is it an Oxymoron?,” Jairus Hihnl and Grant Tregre,
Goddard Space Flight Center, 2013 46th Hawaii International Conference on System
Sciences.
§ “How Does NASA Estimate Software Cost? Summary Findings and Recommendations,”
Jairus Hihn, Lisa VanderAar, Manuel Maldonado, Pedro Martinez, Grant Tregre, NASA Cost
Symposium, OCE Software Working Group, August 27-29, 2013.
§ “Calibrating Software Cost Models Using Bayesian Analysis,” Sunita Chulani, Barry Boehm,
Bert Steece, USC-CSE 1998
§ “Software Project and Quality Modelling Using Bayesian Networks,” Norman Fenton, Peter
Hearty, Martin Neil, and Łukasz Radliński, Elsevier, November 31, 2013.
§ “Software Project Level Estimation Model Framework based on Bayesian Belief Networks,”
Hao Wang, Fei Peng, and Chao Zhang, 2006 Sixth International Conference on Quality
Software (QSIC'06), 27-28 October, 2006.
§ “Using Bayesian Belief Networks to Model Software Project Management Antipatterns,”
Dimitrios Settas, Stamatia Bibi, Panagiotis Sfetsos, Ioannis Stamelos, and Vassilis
Gerogiannis, Software Engineering Research, Management and Applications, ACIS
International Conference on (2006), Seattle, Washington, Aug. 9, 2006 to Aug. 11, 2006.
§ “A Survey Of Bayesian Net Models For Software Development Effort Prediction,” Lukasz
Radlinski, International Journal Of Software Engineering And Computing, Vol. 2, No. 2, July-
December 2010

18. Estimating Software Development
Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 50
§ “Ten Unmyths of Project Estimation Reconsidering some commonly accepted project
management practices,” Phillip Armour, Communications of the ACM, November 2002, Vol.
45, No. 11
§ “Using Earned Value Data to Forecast the Duration and Cost of DoD Space Programs,” Capt.
Shedrick Bridgeforth Air Force Cost Analysis Agency (AFCAA).
§ “Enterprise Agility—What Is It and What Fuels It?,” Rick Dove, in Utility Agility - What Is It
and What Fuels It? - Part 2, 10/24/2009.
§ “Scrum Metrics for Hyperproductive Teams: How They Fly like Fighter Aircraft,” Scott
Downey and Jeff Sutherland, HICSS '13 Proceedings of the 2013 46th Hawaii International
Conference on System Sciences, Pages 4870-4878, IEEE Computer Society
§ Software Project Estimation: The Fundamentals for Providing High Quality Information to
Decision Makers, Alain Abran, Wiley-IEEE, 6 April 2016
§ Practical Software Project Estimation 3rd Edition, Peter Hill, McGraw-Hill Education, 2010
§ “Engaging Software Estimation Education using LEGOs: A Case Study,” Linda Laird and Ye
Yang, IEEE/ACM 38th IEEE International Conference on Software Engineering Companion,
2016
§ “Software Estimation – A Fuzzy Approach,” Nonika Bajaj, Alok Tyagi and Rakesh Agarwal,
ACM SIGSOFT Software Engineering Notes, Page 1 May 2006 Volume 31 Number 3.
§ “Limits to Software Estimation,” J. P. Lewis, ACM SIGSOFT Software Engineering Notes Vol.
26 No. 4, July 2001, Page 54.
§ “Recent Advances in Software Estimation Techniques,” Richard E. Fairley, ICSE '92:
Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Software Engineering, May 1992.
§ “Software Estimation Using the SLIM Tool ,”Nikki Panlilio-Yap, Proceedings of the 1992
conference of the Centre for Advanced Studies on Collaborative research - Volume 1,
CASCON '92
§ “An Approach for Software Cost Estimation,” Violeta Bozhikova and Mariana Stoeva,
International Conference on Computer Systems and Technologies - CompSysTech’10.
§ “Estimating Software -Intensive Projects in the Absence of Historical Data,” Aldo Dagnino,
ICSE '13: Proceedings of the 2013 International Conference on Software Engineering, May
2013.
§ “A Framework for Software Project Estimation Based on COSMIC, DSM and Rework
Characterization,” Sharareh Afsharian, Marco Giacomobono, and Paola Inverardi, BIPI’08,
May 13, 2008.
§ “Estimating software projects,” R. Agarwal, Manish Kumart, Yogesh, S. Mallick, RM.
Bharadwaj, and D. Anantwar, Software Engineering Notes vol 26 no 4 July 2001 Page 60.
§ “Software Intensive Systems Cost and Schedule Estimation Technical Report SERC-2013-TR-
032-2,” Stevens Institute of Technology, Systems Engineering Research Center, 31 June
2013.
§ “Improved Size And Effort Estimation Models For Software Maintenance,” Vu Nguyen,
University of Southern California, December 2010.
§ “Probabilistic Estimation of Software Project Duration,” Andy M. Connor, New Zealand
Journal of Applied Computing & Information Technology, 11(1), 11-22, 2007.

19. Estimating Software Development
Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 51
§ “Application of Sizing Estimation Techniques for Business Critical Software Project
Management,” Parvez Mahmood Khan and M.M. Sufyan Beg, International Journal of Soft
Computing And Software Engineering (JSCSE), Vol. 3, No. 6, 2013
§ “Double Whammy – How ICT Projects are Fooled by Randomness and Screwed by Political
Intent,” Alexander Budzier and Bent Flyvbjerg, Saïd Business School working papers, August
2011.
§ “Software Cost Estimation Framework for Service-Oriented Architecture Systems using
Divide-and-Conquer Approach,” Zheng Li and Jacky Keung, Proceedings of the 5th
International Symposium on Service-Oriented System Engineering (SOSE 2010), pp. 47-54,
Nanjing, China, June 4-5, 2010.
§ “Investigating Effort Prediction Of Software Projects On The ISBSG Dataset,” Sanaa
Elyassami and Ali Idri, International Journal of Artificial Intelligence & Applications (IJAIA),
Vol. 3, No. 2, March 2012.
§ “Resource Estimation in Software Engineering,” Lionel C. Briand, Encyclopedia of Software
Engineering, John Wiley and Sons, 2001.
§ Software Measurement and Estimation: A Practical Approach, Linda M. Laird and M. Carol
Brennan, Wiley-IEEE Computer Society Press, June 2006
§ CECS 543/643 Advanced Software Engineering, Dar-Biau Liu, California State University,
Long Beach, Spring 2012
§ “Software Cost Estimation Review,” Alphonce Omondo Ongere, Helsinki Metropolia
University of Applied Sciences, 30 May 2013.
§ “Software estimation process: a comparison of the estimation practice between Norway
and Spain,” Paul Salaberria, 1 December 2014, Universitetet I Bergenm.
§ “Comparison of available Methods to Estimate Effort, Performance and Cost with the
Proposed Method,” M. Pauline, Dr. P. Aruna, Dr. B. Shadaksharappa, International Journal
of Engineering Inventions, Volume 2, Issue 9 (May 2013), pp. 55-68
§ “Applying Fuzzy ID3 Decision Tree for Software Effort Estimation,” Ali Idri and Sanaa
Elyassam, IJCSI International Journal of Computer Science Issues, Vol. 8, Issue 4, No 1, July
2011.
§ “Software Effort Estimation with Ridge Regression and Evolutionary Attribute Selection,” Efi
Papatheocharous, Harris Papadopoulos and Andreas S. Andreou, 3d Artificial Intelligence
Techniques in Software Engineering Workshop, 7 October, 2010.
§ “A Comparison of Different Project Duration Forecasting Methods Using Earned Value
Metrics,” Stephan Vandevoorde and Mario Vanhoucke, International Journal of Project
Management, 24 (2006), 289-302
§ “Quantifying IT Forecast Quality,” J. L. Eveleens and C. Verhoef, Science of Computer
Programming, Volume 74, Issues 11–12, November 2009, Pages 934-988.
§ “Predictive Modeling: Principles and Practices,” Rick Hefner, Dean Caccavo, Philip Paul, and
Rasheed Baqai, NDIA Systems Engineering Conference, pp. 20-23 October 2008.
§ “Modeling, Simulation & Data Mining: Answering Tough Cost, Date& Staff Forecasts
Questions,” Troy Magennis and Larry Maccherone, Agile 2012, 13-17 August, 2013, Dallas
Texas.
§ How to Measure Anything, Douglas Hubbard, John Wiley and Sons, 2014.

20. Estimating Software Development
Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 52
§ All About Agile: Agile Management Made Easy!, Kelly Waters, CreateSpace Independent
Publishing Platform, March 19, 2012.
§ “Enhance Accuracy In Software Cost And Schedule Estimation By Using 'Uncertainty Analysis
And Assessment’ In The System Modeling Process,” Kardile Vilas Vasantrao, International
Journal of Research & Innovation in Computer Engineering, Vol 1, Issue 1, (6-18), August
2011.
§ “Estimating Perspectives, Richard D. Stutzke, 20th
International COCOMO and Software Cost
Modeling Forum, Los Angeles 25-28 October 2005
§ “Introduction to Systems Cost Uncertainty Analysis: An Engineering Systems Perspective,”
Paul R. Garvey, National Institute of Aerospace (NIA) Systems Analysis & Concepts
Directorate NASA Langley Research Center, 2 May 2006.
§ “Cost and Schedule Uncertainty Analysis of Growth in Support of JCL,” Darren Elliot and
Charles Hunt, 2014 NASA Cost Symposium, 13 August 2014.
§ “Measurement of Software Size: Contributions of COSMIC to Estimation Improvements,”
Alain Abran, Charles Symons, Christof Ebert, Frank Vogelezang, and Hassan Soubra, ICEAA
International Training Symposium, Bristol England, 2016.
§ “What Does a Mature Cost Engineering Organization Look Like?” Dale Shermon,
International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association (ICEAA) 2016 18th to 20th October
2016.
§ “A Hybrid Model for Estimating Software Project Effort from Use Case Points,” Mohammad
Azzeh and Ali Bou Nassif, Applied Soft Computing journal, Elsevier
§ “A Deep Learning Model for Estimating Story Points,” Morakot Choetkiertikul, Hoa Khanh
Dam, Truyen Tran, Trang Pham, Aditya Ghose, and Tim Menzies,
§ “A Hybrid Intelligent Model for Software Cost Estimation,” Wei Lin Du, Luiz Fernando
Capretz, Ali Bou Nassif, Danny Ho, Journal of Computer Science, 9(11):1506-1513, 2013
§ “An Empirical Analysis of Task Allocation in Scrum-based Agile Programming,” Jun Lin, Han
Yu, Zhiqi Shen
§ “Agile Planning & Metrics That Matter,” Sally Elatta, Agile Transformation for Government.
§ Introduction to Uncertainty Quantification, T. J. Sullivan, Springer, 2016
§ Generalized Estimating Equations, 2nd Edition, James W. Hardin, Chapman and Hall, 2012.
§ Software Estimation Best Practices, Tools & Techniques: A Complete Guide for Software
Project Estimators, Murali K. Chemuturi
§ “#NoEstimates, But #YesMeasurements: Why Shouldn’t agile teams waste their time and
effort in estimating,” Pekka Forselius, ISBSG IT Confidence Conference, 2016
§ “Agile Benchmarks: What Can You Concluded?” Don Reifer, ISBSG IT Confidence Conference,
2016
§ “Improve Estimation Maturity using Functional Size Measurement and Industry Data,” Drs.
Harold van Heeringen, ISBSG IT Confidence Conference, 2016
§ “Why Can’t People Estimate: Estimation Bias and Mitigation,” Dan Galorath, ISBSG IT
Confidence Conference, 2015
§ “Why Can’t People Estimate: Estimation Bias and Strategic Mis-Estimation,” Daniel D.
Galorath, ISBSG IT Confidence Conference, 2014
§ “Estimation ‒ Next Level,” Ton Dekkers, ISBSG IT Confidence Conference, 2013.

21. Estimating Software Development
Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 53
§ “Are We Really That Bad? A Look At Software Estimation Accuracy,” Peter R. Hill, ISBSG IT
Confidence Conference, 2013.
§ Hybrid Approach For Estimating Software Project Development Effort: Designing Software
Cost Estimation Model, Ketema Kifle, LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing, June 2, 2016.
§ A Hedonic Approach to Estimating Software Cost Using Ordinary Least Squares Regression
and Nominal Attribute Variables, Marc Ellis, BiblioScholar, 2012.
§ “The Evaluation of Well-known Effort Estimation Models based on Predictive Accuracy
Indicators,” Khalid Khan, School of Computing Blekinge Institute of Technology, Sweden
§ Uncertainty Quantification: Theory, Implementation, and Applications, Ralph Smith, SIAM-
Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, December 2, 2013.
§ “A Knowledge and Analytics-Based Framework and Model for Forecasting Program
Schedule Performance, Kevin T. Knudsen and Mark Blackburn, Complex Adaptive Systems,
Los Angeles, CA , 2016
§ “Managing Project Uncertainty: From Variation to Chaos,” Arnound de Meyer, Christoph
Loch, and Michael Pich, IEEE Engineering Management Review 43(3):91 - 91 · December
2002
§ “Project Uncertainty and Management Style,” C. H. Loch, M. T. Pich, and A. De Meyer,
2000/31/TM/CIMSO 10
§ Effects of Feature Complexity of Software Estimates ‒ An Exploratory Study,” Ana
Magazinius and Richard Berntsson Svensson, 40th
Euromicro Conference on Software
Engineering and Advanced Applications, 2014
§ Project Management Under Risk: Using the Real Options Approach to Evaluate Flexibility in
R & D," Arnd Huchzermeier and Christoph Loch, INSEAD
§ How Many Licks: Or How To Estimate Damn Near Anything, Aaron Santos, Running Press,
2009.
§ “Evaluation and Improvements for Agile Planning Tools,” Sultan Alyahya, Manal Alqahtani,
and Mohamed Maddeh, SERA 2016, June 8-10, 2016, Baltimore, USA
§ “Fermi questions to estimate software development projects,” Eduardo Miranda, Joint
Conference of the International Workshop on Software Measurement and the International
Conference on Software Process and Product Measurement, 2014
§ “A Review of Software Cost Estimation in Agile Software Development Using Soft
Computing Techniques,” Saurabh Bilgaiyan, Samaresh Mishra, and Madhabananda Das,
International Conference on Computational Intelligence and Networks 2016
§ “Quality of Estimations How to Assess Reliability of Cost Predictions,” Dr. Thomas Fehlmann
and Eberhard Kranich, Joint Conference of the 22nd International Workshop on Software
Measurement and the 2012 Seventh International Conference on Software Process and
Product Measurement, 2012
§ “Impact of Software Resource Estimation Research on Practice: A Preliminary Report on
Achievements, Synergies, and Challenges,” Barry Boehm and Ricardo Valerdi, ICSE’11, May
21–28, 2011, Waikiki, Honolulu, HI, USA
§ “Predicting Accuracy Of Early Cost Estimates Based On Estimate Quality,” Garold D.
Oberlender, and Steven M. Trost, Journal Of Construction Engineering And Management,
May/June 2001

22. Estimating Software Development
Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 54
§ “Estimating Software‒Intensive Projects in the Absence of Historical Data,” Aldo Dagnino
Industrial Software Systems, 35th
International Conference on Software Engineering (ICSE)
2013.
§ “Software Estimation Based on Use Case Size,” Gustavo Bestetti Ibarra and Patrícia Vilain,
Brazilian Symposium on Software Engineering, 2010.