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Managing risk with deliverables planning

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Risk Management
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Managing risk with deliverables planning

  1. 1. MANAGING RISK WITH DELIVERABLES PLANNING Without metrics, you’re just another guy with an opinion. — Stephan Leschka, Hewlett Packard 1
  2. 2. Agenda for the Next 4 Hours ¨ Review the five principles of Risk Management ¨ Introduce of the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) ¨ Illustrate each CRM process area with example artifacts or outcomes ¨ Familiarize all participants with the concept of Risk Management and their contributions to the 1st step – Identifying Risk ¨ Understand what data needs to be gathered, so the 1st cut at a measure of program risk can be constructed. 2
  3. 3. But, Before we Start, Let’s Understand our Role Here … ¨ Risk Management is a profession ¨ Risk Management is Program Management ¨ Risk Management is how adults manage projects ¨ Managing risks goes hand-in-glove with managing work, people, processes, vendors, and the client 3
  4. 4. What’s Risk Management All About? 4
  5. 5. But we can’t make decisions until we get the right information, right? 5
  6. 6. Risks are part of the project, handled the same way all other work is handled – with a plan 6
  7. 7. Five Easy Pieces of Risk Management Risk Management is more than the processes called out in PMBOK® (Chapter 11) Risk Management IS Project Management Glen B. Alleman Lewis and Fowler www.lewisandfowler.com galleman@lewisandfowler.com 7
  8. 8. 1. Hope is not a strategy 2. No single point estimate of cost or schedule can be correct 3. Cost, Schedule, and Technical Performance are inseparable 4. Risk management requires adherence to a well defined process 5. Communication is the Number One success factor 8
  9. 9. Hope is Not a Strategy A Ship on the Beach is a Lighthouse to the Sea – Dutch Proverb I 9
  10. 10. II No Point Estimate By Itself Can Be Correct 10
  11. 11. Cost, Schedule, & Technical Performance are Inseparable III 11
  12. 12. Risk Management Demands a Well Defined Process IV 12
  13. 13. V Risk Management Demands Direct Communication Between All Parties 13
  14. 14. § Lack of predictive variance analysis § Untimely and unrealistic Latest Revised Estimates (LRE) § Progress not monitored in a regular and consistent manner § Lack of vertical and horizontal traceability cost and schedule data for corrective action § Lack of internal surveillance and controls § Managerial actions not demonstrated using Earned Value § Inattention to budgetary responsibilities § Work authorizations that are not always followed § Issues with Budget and data reconciliation § Lack of an integrated management system § Baseline fluctuations and frequent replanning § Current period and retroactive changes § Improper use of management reserve § EV techniques that do not reflect actual performance The Project Train Wrecks Starts When There is… Mary K. Evans Picture Library 14
  15. 15. PUTTING THESE PRINCIPLES INTO PRACTICE Principles are not the same as Practice 15
  16. 16. Principles and Practices are not the same In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is. 16
  17. 17. Three Conditions of Risk ¨ The potential for loss must exist. ¨ Uncertainty with respect to the eventual outcome must be present. ¨ Some choice or decision is required to deal with the uncertainty and potential for loss. 17
  18. 18. Mission-Oriented Success Analysis and Improvement Criteria (MOSAIC) ¨ Establish and maintain confidence that objectives will be achieved successfully ¨ A suite of risk–based methods for assessing and managing complex projects and processes. ¨ Produces a broad overview of the current state of risk and opportunity for a project or process. 18
  19. 19. Mission Work Processes Constraints Tasking, Orders, and Plans Operational Processes Resources § Stability § Completeness § Clarity § Validity § Feasibility § Precedent § Timeliness § Formality § Suitability § Process Control § Familiarity § Product Control § Schedule § Staff § Budget § Facilities § Tools Mission Execution Maintenance Process Policies § Efficiency § Effectiveness § Complexity § Timeliness § Safety § Formality § Suitability § Process Control § Familiarity § Service Quality § Laws and Regulations § Restrictions § Contractual Constraints Product and Service Management Processes Interfaces § Usability § Effectiveness § Timeliness § Accuracy § Correctness § Operational Systems § Planning § Organization § Management Experience § Program Interfaces § Customer / User Community § Associate Agencies § Contractors § Senior Leadership § Vendors § Politics Operational Systems Management Methods § Throughput § Suitability § Usability § Familiarity § Reliability § Security § Inventory § Installations § System Support § Monitoring § Personnel Management § Quality Assurance § Configuration Management Work Environment § Quality Attitude § Cooperation § Communication § Morale 19
  20. 20. AN INTRODUCTION TO CONTINUOUS RISK MANAGEMENT (CRM) CRM is the Software Engineering Institute’s framework for managing risk in the context of system integration, COTS based product development, and the management of these activities. 20
  21. 21. Continuous Risk Management 21
  22. 22. Continuous Risk Management Stage Actionable Steps Identify Continually ask, “what could go wrong?” Analyze Continually ask, “which risks are most critical to mitigate?” Plan Develop mitigation approaches for the most critical risks Track Track the mitigation plan and the risk Control Make decisions based on data Communicate Ensure a free-flow of information throughout the project 22
  23. 23. Putting Continuous Risk Management Together Identify Analyze Plan Track Control Identify Risk Issues and Concerns Evaluate, classify, and prioritize risks Decide what should be done about risks Monitor risk metrics and verify/validate mitigations Make risk decisions Subproject and partner data/constraints, hazard analysis, FMEA, FTA, etc. Risk data: test data, expert opinion, hazard analysis, FMEA, FTA, lessons learned, technical analysis Resources Replan Mitigation Program/project data (metrics information) Statement of risk Risk classification, Likelihood Consequence, Timeframe Risk prioritization Research, Watch (tracking requirements) Acceptance Rationale, Mitigation Plans Risk status reports on: Risks Risk Mitigation Plans Close or Accept Risks Invoke contingency plans Continue to track 23
  24. 24. Four (4) Steps to Deploying CRM Step Action 1 Establish an enterprise risk management process SEI CRM Process with Mitre Risk Registry is a start 2 Establish Risk Process owner and document the process Org chart Risk Manager established, Risk owners for deliverables are next 3 Provide training in the standard risk management process Engage risk owners 4 Monitor and enforce the implementation of Risk Management Weekly risk board meeting 24
  25. 25. Search for and locate risks before they become issues or problems. Capture statements of risk and context. 25
  26. 26. Capture a Statement of Risk ¨ Consider and record the conditions that are causing concern ¨ Create a statement of the risk in a concise description, which can be understood and acted on ¤ Condition: a single phrase describing the circumstances ¤ Consequences: a single phrase describing the key, possible negative outcome(s) 26
  27. 27. Capture the Context of a Risk ¨ A brief, concise description of the conditions and consequences of the risk ¨ Provide enough information to ensure the original intent of the risk can be understood, especially after some time has passed 27
  28. 28. Transform risk data into decision making information. Risk analysis is performed to determine what is important to the project and to set priorities. 28
  29. 29. Evaluating Attributes of Risks ¨ Impact: the loss or effect on the project if the risk occurs ¨ Probability: the likelihood the risk will occur ¨ Timeframe: the period when action is required in order to mitigate or retire the risk 29
  30. 30. Sample Risk Evaluation A B C D E Negligible Minor Moderate Significant Severe E Very Likely Low Med Medium Med Hi High High D Likely Low Low Med Medium Med Hi High C Possible Low Low Med Medium Med Hi Med Hi B Unlikely Low Low Med Low Med Medium Med Hi A Very Unlikely Low Low Low Med Medium Medium 30
  31. 31. Classifying Risks ¨ Grouping risks based on shared characteristics ¨ Identify duplicate risks 31
  32. 32. Risk Evaluation Classification Probability Risk Rating > 70% E: Very Likely 40% to 70% D: Likely 10% to 40% C: Possible 1% to 40% B: Unlikely < 1% A: Very Unlikely Budget Over Run Impact Rating > 15% of budget E: Severe 10% to 15% of budget D: Significant 6% to 10% of budget C: Moderate 2% to 6% of budget B: Minor < 2% of budget A: Negligible 32
  33. 33. Prioritizing Risks ¨ Partitioning risks or groups of risks based on the Borda “vital few” scale ¨ Ranking the risks based on a criteria ¨ Separate risk to be dealt with first (the vital few) when allocating resources 33
  34. 34. The Borda Rank ¨ Which risk of more critical? ¨ Where should resources be allocated to eliminate the most troublesome areas in the program? ¨ Using this approach – ties for “the most important – often result. ¨ Borda Ranking deals with this result, which ranks risks according to their probability of occurrence and their impact ( ) i ik k b N r = - å “Risk Matrix: An Approach for Identifying, Assessing, and Ranking Program Risks,” Paul Garvey and Zachary Lansdowne, Air Force of Logistics, Vol XXII, Number 1 34
  35. 35. Translate risk information into decisions and mitigating actions and implement those actions. Produce plans for mitigating risks. 35
  36. 36. Assign Responsibility ¨ Three choices for assigning responsibility ¤ Keep the risk ¤ Transfer the risk upward in the organization or to another organization ¤ Delegate the risk within the organization 36
  37. 37. Determine the Approach ¨ Accept the risk – do nothing ¨ Mitigate the risk – eliminate or reduce ¨ Watch the risk – monitor for critical changes 37
  38. 38. Define Scope and Actions ¨ Action Item List for less complex mitigations ¤ A simple means of documenting and tracking risk mitigations ¨ Task Plans with schedules and budgets for complex mitigations ¤ These plans must be embedded in the Integrated Master Schedule 38
  39. 39. Monitor risk indicators and mitigation plans. Indicators and trends provide information to activate plans and contingencies. Review these plans periodically to measure progress and identify new risks. 39
  40. 40. The Risk Register 40
  41. 41. Integrate Risk with the Master Schedule ¨ Budget and resources assigned from Risk Management reserve ¨ Activation of risk activities through the Risk Management Board ¨ Adjustments to Performance Measurement Baseline reflect Risk activities ¨ Measure risk activities in the same way as other planned activities 41
  42. 42. Correct for deviations from the risk mitigation plans. Actions can lead to corrections in products or processes. Changes to risks, risks that become problems, or faulty plans require adjustments in plans or actions. 42
  43. 43. Analyze Risks ¨ Examine risks for trends, deviations, and anomalies ¨ Achieve a clear understanding of the current status of each risk and mitigation plan 43
  44. 44. Decide ¨ Replan ¨ Close the risk ¨ Invoke the contingency plan ¨ Continue tracking and executing the current plan 44
  45. 45. Execute ¨ If a planned action is made, open the Work Packages for the mitigation or retirement activities ¨ If it decided to continue tracking, the risk remains in the tracking state until the next review 45
  46. 46. Provide information and feedback to the project on the risk activities, current risks, and emerging risks. 46
  47. 47. Risk Communication Process Risk Management Processes and their Communication to the Program Team Determine sources and categories Define parameters to analyze and categorize risks Define parameters used to control the risk management effort Establish and maintain a strategy for risk management Identify and document risks Evaluate and categorize each identified risk using defined categories and parameters and determine relative priority Develop risk Handling Plan for important risks as defined by the risk management strategy Monitor status of risk periodically and implement risk handling plan as appropriate Establish and maintain organizational policy for planning and performing risk management Provide adequate resources for performing risk management, developing work products and providing services Assign responsibility and authority for performing the process Train staff in support of risk management processes Place designated work products under appropriate configuration management Identify and involve relevant stakeholders Monitor and control risk management processes Objectively evaluate adherence to risk management processes 47
  48. 48. Risk Management and the IMS 48
  49. 49. Linking Risks with the IMS 49 The situation What to do Risk identified during the program planning phase (IMP) § Place risk mitigation tasks into IMS and allocate resources § Do not duplicate risk mitigation tasks in risk database Risk threat to a task in the IMS § Enter risk mitigation actions into risk database Existing risk growing beyond the current scope of a team but within the scope of the program § Allocate management reserves § Place risk mitigation actions in risk database New risk beyond the current scope of the program § Obtain additional resources § Develop plan and allocate resources § Place risk mitigation tasks in IMS
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