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Estimating	Software	Development	
The primary purpose of software estimation is not to predict a project’s outcome; it is t...
Estimating	Software	Development	
Integration	of	Agile	and	Earned	Value	Management	 	34	
§ “An	Effort	Prediction	Interval	A...
Estimating	Software	Development	
Integration	of	Agile	and	Earned	Value	Management	 	35	
§ “Identification	of	inaccurate	ef...
Estimating	Software	Development	
Integration	of	Agile	and	Earned	Value	Management	 	36	
§ “Planning,	Estimating,	and	Monit...
Estimating	Software	Development	
Integration	of	Agile	and	Earned	Value	Management	 	37	
§ “An	Alternative	to	the	Rayleigh	...
Estimating	Software	Development	
Integration	of	Agile	and	Earned	Value	Management	 	38	
§ IT	Project	Estimation:	A	Practic...
Estimating	Software	Development	
Integration	of	Agile	and	Earned	Value	Management	 	39	
§ “Estimating	Software	Development...
Estimating	Software	Development	
Integration	of	Agile	and	Earned	Value	Management	 	40	
§ “Advancement	of	decision	making	...
Estimating	Software	Development	
Integration	of	Agile	and	Earned	Value	Management	 	41	
§ “Why	Are	Estimates	Always	Wrong:...
Estimating	Software	Development	
Integration	of	Agile	and	Earned	Value	Management	 	42	
§ Software	Effort	Estimation	as	Co...
Estimating	Software	Development	
Integration	of	Agile	and	Earned	Value	Management	 	43	
§ “Cost	estimation	in	agile	develo...
Estimating	Software	Development	
Integration	of	Agile	and	Earned	Value	Management	 	44	
§ Estimating	Software	Costs:	Bring...
Estimating	Software	Development	
Integration	of	Agile	and	Earned	Value	Management	 	45	
§ “A	Decision	Support	System	To	Ch...
Estimating	Software	Development	
Integration	of	Agile	and	Earned	Value	Management	 	46	
§ “A	Baseline	Model	for	Software	E...
Estimating	Software	Development	
Integration	of	Agile	and	Earned	Value	Management	 	47	
§ “Predicting	Software	Projects	Co...
Estimating	Software	Development	
Integration	of	Agile	and	Earned	Value	Management	 	48	
§ “Estimation	of	Project	Size	Usin...
Estimating	Software	Development	
Integration	of	Agile	and	Earned	Value	Management	 	49	
§ “Scaling	Agile	Estimation	Method...
Estimating	Software	Development	
Integration	of	Agile	and	Earned	Value	Management	 	50	
§ “Ten	Unmyths	of	Project	Estimati...
Estimating	Software	Development	
Integration	of	Agile	and	Earned	Value	Management	 	51	
§ “Application	of	Sizing	Estimatio...
Estimating	Software	Development	
Integration	of	Agile	and	Earned	Value	Management	 	52	
§ All	About	Agile:	Agile	Managemen...
Estimating	Software	Development	
Integration	of	Agile	and	Earned	Value	Management	 	53	
§ “Are	We	Really	That	Bad?	A	Look	...
Estimating	Software	Development	
Integration	of	Agile	and	Earned	Value	Management	 	54	
§ “Estimating	Software‒Intensive	P...
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21.5 Estimating Agile Softare Development

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The primary purpose of software estimation is not to predict a project’s outcome; it is to determine whether a project’s targets are realistic enough to allow the project to be controlled to meet them ‒ Steve McConnell

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21.5 Estimating Agile Softare Development

  1. 1. Estimating Software Development The primary purpose of software estimation is not to predict a project’s outcome; it is to determine whether a project’s targets are realistic enough to allow the project to be controlled to meet them ‒ Steve McConnell § “Believing is Seeing: Confirmation Bias Studies in Software Engineering, “Magne Jørgensen and Efi Papatheocharous, 41st Euromicro Conference on Software Engineering and Advanced Applications (SEAA) § “Numerical anchors and their strong effects on software development effort estimates,” Erik Løhrea, and Magne Jørgensen, Simula Research Laboratory, Oslo. § “Review on Traditional and Agile Cost Estimation Success Factor in Software Development Project,” Zulkefli Mansor, Saadiah Yahya, Noor Habibah Hj Arshad, International Journal on New Computer Architectures and Their Applications (IJNCAA) 1(3): 942–952. § “Release Planning & Buffered MoSCoW Rules,” Dr. Eduardo Miranda Institute for Software Research ASSE 2013 - 14th Argentine Symposium on Software Engineering / 42 JAIIO (Argentine Conference on Informatics) September 16th, 2013, Cordoba, Argentina § “Fixed price without fixed specification,” Magne Jørgensen, Simula Research Laboratory, 15 March 2016. § “The Use of Precision of Software Development Effort Estimates to Communicate Uncertainty,” Magne Jørgensen, Software Quality Days. The Future of Systems-and Software Development. Springer International Publishing, 2016. § “The Influence of Selection Bias on Effort Overruns in Software Development Projects,” Magne Jørgensen, Simula Research Laboratory & Institute of Informatics, University of Oslo. § “Software effort estimation terminology: The tower of Babel,” Stein Grimstad, Magne Jørgensen, Kjetil Moløkken-Østvold, Information and Software Technology 48 (2006) 302– 310. § “Planning and Executing Time-Bound Projects,” Eduardo Miranda, IEEE Computer, March 2002, pp. 73 ‒ 78. § “When 90% Confidence Intervals are 50% Certain: On the Credibility of Credible Intervals,” Karl Halvor Teigen and Magne Jørgensen, Applied Cognitive Psychology Applied Cognitive Psychology, 19: 455–475 (2005). § “Software quality measurement,” Magne Jørgensen, Advances in Engineering Software 30 (1999) 907–912. § “Group Processes in Software Effort Estimation,” Kjetil Moløkken-østvold and Magne Jørgensen, Empirical Software Engineering, 9, 315–334, 2004. § “Story Point Estimating,” Richard Carlson, ALEA, Agile and Lean Associates, 2013. § “Project Estimation in the Norwegian Software Industry – A Summary,” Kjetil Moløkken, Magne Jørgensen, Sinan S. Tanilkan, Hans Gallis, Anette C. Lien, and Siw E. Hove, Simula Research Laboratory. § “Software Estimation using a Combination of Techniques,” Klaus Nielsen, PM Virtual Library, 2013
  2. 2. Estimating Software Development Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 34 § “An Effort Prediction Interval Approach Based on the Empirical Distribution of Previous Estimation Accuracy,” Magne Jørgensen and D. I. K. Sjøberg, Simula Research Laboratory, Norway. § “Better Sure than Safe? Overconfidence in Judgment Based Software Development Effort Prediction Intervals,” Magne Jørgensen, Karl Halvor Teigen, and Kjetil Moløkken-Østvold, Journal of Systems and Software, February 2004 § “The Impact of Irrelevant and Misleading Information on Software Development Effort Estimates: A Randomized Controlled Field Experiment,” Magne Jørgensen and Stein Grimstad, IEEE Transactions of Software Engineering, Volume 37, Issue 5, September ‒ October 2011. § “The Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle and Its Application to Software,” P. A. Laplante, ACM SIGSOFT Software Engineering Notes, Vol. 15 No. 5 Oct 1990, Page 21. § “Experience With the Accuracy of Software Maintenance Task Effort Prediction Models, Magne Jørgensen, IEEE Transactions On Software Engineering, Vol. 21, No. 8, August 1995. § “Conducting Realistic Experiments in Software Engineering,” Dag I. K. Sjøberg, Bente Anda, Erik Arisholm, Tore Dybå, Magne Jørgensen, Amela Karahasanovic, Espen F. Koren and Marek Vokác, International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering, 2002. § “Forecasting of software development work effort: Evidence on expert judgement and formal models,” Magne Jørgensen, International Journal of Forecasting 23(3) pp. 449-462, July 2004. § “Software effort estimation terminology: The tower of Babel,” Stein Grimstad, Magne Jørgensen, Kjetil Moløkken-Østvold, Information and Software Technology, 48 (2006) 302– 310. § “A Systematic Review of Software Development Cost Estimation Studies,” Magne Jørgensen and Martin Shepperd, IEEE Transactions On Software Engineering, Vol. 33, No. 1, January 2007. § “Towards a Fuzzy based Framework for Effort Estimation in Agile Software Development,” Atef Tayh Raslan, Nagy Ramadan Darwish, and Hesham Ahmed Hefny, (IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security, Vol. 13, No. 1, 2015, § “Evaluation of Model Evaluation Criterion for Software Development Effort Estimation,” S. K. Pillai, and M. K. Jeyakumar, International Journal of Electrical, Computer, Energetic, Electronic and Communication Engineering, Vol: 9, No: 1, 2015. § “Modern Tools to Support DoD Software Intensive System of Systems Cost Estimation: A DACS State-of-the-Art Report, August 2007 § “Software Effort Estimation with Ridge Regression and Evolutionary Attribute Selection,” Efi Papatheocharous , Harris Papadopoulos and Andreas S. Andreou, 3rd Artificial Intelligence Techniques in Software Engineering Workshop, 7 October, 2010, Larnaca, Cyprus § “The Business of Software Estimation Is Not Evil: Reconciling agile approaches and project estimates,” Phillip G. Armour, Communications of the ACM, January 2014, Vol. 57, No. 1. § “Analysis of Empirical Software Effort Estimation Models,” Saleem Basha and Dhavachelvan P, (IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security, Vol. 7, No. 3, 2010, § “Empirical Estimation of Hybrid Model: A Controlled Case Study,” Sadaf Un Nisa and M. Rizwan Jameel Qureshi, I.J., Information Technology and Computer Science, 2012, 8, 43–50.
  3. 3. Estimating Software Development Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 35 § “Identification of inaccurate effort estimates in agile software development,” Florian Raith, Ingo Richter, Robert Lindermeier, and Gudrun Klinker, 2013 20th Asia-Pacific Software Engineering Conference (APSEC) § “Efficient Indicators to Evaluate the Status of Software Development Effort Estimation inside the Organizations,” Elham Khatibi and Roliana Ibrahim, International Journal of Managing Information Technology (IJMIT), Vol. 4, No. 3, August 2012 § “Modern Project Management: A New Forecasting Model to Ensure Project Success,” Iman Attarzadeh and Ow Siew Hock, International Conference on Future Computer and Communication, 2009. § “Using public domain metrics to estimate software development effort,” Ross Jeffery, Melanie Ruhe, and Isabella Wieczorek, Proceedings. Seventh International Software Metrics Symposium, 2001. § “What We Do and Don’t Know about Software Development Effort Estimation,” Magne Jørgensen, IEEE Software, March / April 2014. § “A review of studies on expert estimation of software development effort,” Magne Jørgensen, The Journal of Systems and Software 70 (2004) 37–60. § “How to Avoid Impact from Irrelevant and Misleading Information when Estimating Software Development Effort,” Magne Jørgensen & Stein Grimstad, Simula Research Laboratory. § “Avoiding Irrelevant and Misleading Information When Estimating Development Effort,” Bente Anda , Hege Dreiem , Dag I. K. Sjøberg1, and Magne Jørgensen, IEEE Software, Volume 25, Issues 3, May-June, 2008. § “Prediction of project outcome: The Application of Statistical Methods to Earned Value Management and Earned Schedule Performance Indexes,” Walt Lipke, Ofer Zwikael, Kym Henderson, and Frank Anbari, International Journal of Project Management, 27, pp. 400- 407, 2009 § “The ROI of Agile VS. Traditional Methods? An Analysis of XP, TDD, Pair Programming, and Scrum (Using Real Options),” Dr. David Rico, http://w.davidfrico.com/rico08b.pdf § “Exploring the ‘Planning Fallacy’: Why People Underestimate Their Task Completion Times.” Roger Buehler, Dale Griffin, and Michael Ross, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol 67(3), Sep 1994, 366-38. § “Estimates, Uncertainty, and Risk,” Barbara Kitchenham and Stephen Linkman, University of Keele, IEEE Software, May / June, 1997, § “Software Project Scheduling under Uncertainties,” Intaver Institute Inc. § “A Comparison of Software Project Overruns—Flexible versus Sequential Development Models,” Kjetil Moløkken-Østvold and Magne Jørgensen, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, Volume 31, Issue 9, September 2005. § “Cost Estimating Issues for MAIS Programs Using an Agile Approach for SW Development,” Richard Mabe, 22 September 2015, DoD Agile Meeting: Enhancing Adoption of Agile Software Development in DoD, September 2015, PARCA OSD. § “An Empirical Investigation on Effort Estimation in Agile Global Software Development,” Ricardo Britto, Emilia Mendes, and Jurgen Borstler, 2015 IEEE 10th International Conference on Global Software Engineering
  4. 4. Estimating Software Development Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 36 § “Planning, Estimating, and Monitoring Progress in Agile Systems Development Environments,” Suzette S. Johnson, STC 2010. § “Improving Subjective Estimates Using Paired Comparisons,” Eduardo Miranda, IEEE Software, January/February, 2001. § “A Comparison of Software Project Overruns—Flexible versus Sequential Development Models,” Kjetil Moløkken-Østvold and Magne Jørgensen, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, Volume 31, Issue 9, September 2005. § “Using Performance Indices to Evaluate the Estimate at Completion,” David Christensen, Journal of Cost Analysis and Management, Spring 17–24. § “Reliability Improvement of Major Defense Acquisition Program Cost Estimates—Mapping DoDAF to COSMO,” Ricardo Valerdi, Matthew Dabkowski, and Indrajeet Dixit, Systems Engineering, Volume 18, Issue 4, 2015 § “Fallacies and biases when adding effort estimates.” Magne Jørgensen, https://www.simula.no/file/simulasimula2762pdf/download § “The Use of Precision of Software Development Effort Estimates to Communicate Uncertainty,” Magne Jørgensen, Software Quality Days. The Future of Systems-and Software Development. Springer. § “Communication of software cost estimates,” Magne Jørgensen, https://www.simula.no/file/simulasimula2498pdf/download § “Relative Estimation of Software Development Effort: It Matters With What and How You Compare,” Magne Jørgensen, IEEE Software (2013): 74-79. § “Reasons for Software Effort Estimation Error: Impact of Respondent Role, Information Collection Approach, and Data Analysis Method Magne,” Jørgensen and Kjetil Moløkken- Østvold, IEEE Transactions On Software Engineering, Vol. 30, No. 12, December 2004. § “Use Case Points: An estimation approach,” Gautam Banerjee, https://goo.gl/QcPmYd § “Software Cost Estimation Methods: A Review, “ Vahid Khatibi and Dayang N. A. Jawawi, Journal of Emerging Trends in Computing and Information Sciences, Volume 2 No. 1. § “Software cost estimation,” Chapter 26, Software Engineering, 9th Edition, Ian Sommerville, 2010. § “Estimating Development Time and Effort of Software Projects by using a Neuro-Fuzzy Approach,” Venus Marza and Mohammad Teshnehlab, in Advanced Technologies, INTECH Open, October 2009. § “Function Points, Use Case Points, Story Points: Observations From a Case Study,” Joe Schofield, Alan W. Armentrout, and Regina M. Trujillo, CrossTalk: The Journal of Defense Software Engineering, May–June 2013. § “Advanced Topics in Agile Estimating,” Mike Cohn, Mountain Goat Software § “Schedule Assessment Guide: Best Practices for Schedule Assessment,” GAO-16-89G. § Agile Estimating and Planning, Mike Cohn, Prentice Hall, 2006 § ” A Bayesian Software Estimating Model Using a Generalized g-Prior Approach,” Sunita Chulani and Bert Steece, Technical Report, USC-CSE-98515 § “A Model for Software Development Effort and Cost Estimation,” Krishnakumar Pillai and V.S. Sukumaran Nair, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, Vol. 23, No. 8, August 1997.
  5. 5. Estimating Software Development Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 37 § “An Alternative to the Rayleigh Curve Model for Software Development Effort,” F. N. Parr, IEEE Transactions On Software Engineering, Vol. SE–6, NO. 3, May1980. § Fifty Quick Ideas to Improve Your User Stories, Gojko Adzix and David Evans, http://leanpub.com/50quickideas § “The Use of Agile Surveillance Points: An Alternative to Milestone Reviews,” Richard “Dick” Carlson, http://www.a2zalea.com/wp–content/uploads/2014/02/Agile–Surveillance– Points_20140113.pdf § “A Planning Poker Tool for Supporting Collaborative Estimation in Distributed Agile Development,” Fabio Calefato and Filippo Lanubile, ICSEA 2011, The Sixth International Conference on Software Engineering Advances. § “An Effort Estimation Model for Agile Software Development,” Shahid Ziauddin, Kamal Tipu, Shahrukh Zia, Advances in Computer Science and its Applications (ACSA) 314 Vol. 2, No. 1, 2012. § “Successful Solutions Through Agile Project Management,” ESI International White Paper, 2010. § “Towards a Fuzzy based Framework for Effort Estimation in Agile Software Development,” Atef Tayh Raslan, Nagy Ramadan Darwish, and Hesham Ahmed Hefny, (IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security, Vol. 13, No. 1, 2015. § “Improving Subjective Estimations Using Paired Comparisons,” Eduardo Miranda, IEEE Software Magazine, Vol. 18, No. 1, January 2001. § “Sprint Planning Optimization in Agile Data Warehouse Design,” Matteo Golfarelli, Stefano Rizzi, and Elisa Turricchia, LNCS 7448, pp. 30–41, 2012. § “Effort Estimation in Global Software Development: A Systematic Literature Review,” Ricardo Britto, Vitor Freitas, Emilia Mendes, and Muhammad Usman, IEEE 9th International Conference on Global Software Engineering, 2014. § “An evaluation of the paired comparisons method for software sizing,” Eduardo Miranda, Proceedings of the 2000 International Conference on Software Engineering. § “Protecting Software Development Projects Against Underestimation,” Eduardo Miranda and Alain Abran, Project Management Journal, Volume 39, Issue 3, Pages 75-85, September, 2008. § “Sizing User Stories Using Paired Comparisons,” Eduardo Miranda, Pierre Bourque, and Alain Abran, Information and Software Technology, Volume 51, Issue 9, September 2009, Pages 1327–1337. § “Effort Estimation in Agile Software Development using Story Points,” Evita Coelho and Anirban Basu, International Journal of Applied Information Systems (IJAIS), Volume 3, Number 7, August 2012. § “A Model for Estimating Agile Project Schedule Acceleration,” Dan Ingold, Barry Boehm, Supannika Koolmanojwong, and Jo Ann Lane, Center for Systems and Software Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, 2013. § “Cost Estimation in Agile Development Projects,” Siobhan Keaveney and Kieran Conboy, International Conference on Information Systems Development (ISD2011) Prato, Italy. § “Analysis of Empirical Software Effort Estimation Models,” Saleem Basha and Dhavachelvan P, (IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security, Vol. 7, No. 3, 2010.
  6. 6. Estimating Software Development Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 38 § IT Project Estimation: A Practical Guide to Costing Software, Paul Coombs, Cambridge University Press, 2003 § “Replanning, Reprogramming, and Single Point Adjustments,” July 2013, NAVY CEVM (Center for Earned Value Management). § “Software Cost Estimating for Iterative / Incremental Development Programs – Agile Cost Estimating,” NASA CAS, July 2014. § “Distinguishing Two Dimensions of Uncertainty,” Craig Fox and Güllden Ülkümen, Perspectives on Thinking, Judging, and Decision Making, Brun, W., Keren, G., Kirkeboen, G., & Montgomery, H. (Eds.). (2011). Oslo, Norway: Universitetsforlaget. § “Could Social Factors Influence the Effort Software Estimation?” Valentina Lenarduzzi, 7th International Workshop on Social Software Engineering (SSE), At Bergamo (Italy), September 2015. § “Object-Oriented Software Cost Estimation Methodologies Compared,” D. Gregory Foley & Brenda K. Wetzel, Society of Cost Estimating and Analysis – International Society of Parametric Analysts, 22 December 2011, pp 41-63. § “Fix Your Estimating Bad Habits,” Ted M. Young, http://www.slideshare.net/tedyoung/fix- you-some-bad-estimation-habits § “How to Estimate and Agile Project,” Saunders Learning Center, http://www.slideshare.net/FloydSaunders/how-to-estimate-an-agile-project § Software Cost Estimation Metrics Manual for Defense Systems, Bradford Clark and Richard Madachy (editors), 2015. § “Metrics for Agile Projects: Finding the Right Tools for the Job,” ESI International, https://www.projectsmart.co.uk/white–papers/metrics–for–agile–projects.pdf § “The Sprint Planning Meeting, Richard “Dick” Carlson, http://www.a2zalea.com/wp– content/uploads/2014/02/SprintPlanningMeeting_20140118.pdf § “Software Development Estimation Biases: The Role of Interdependence,” Magne Jørgensen and Stein Grimstad, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, Vol. 38, No. 3, May/June 2012. § “Managing Projects of Chaotic and Unpredictable Behavior,” Richard “Dick” Carlson, http://www.a2zalea.com/wp–content/uploads/2014/02/Managing–Projects–of–Chaotic– and–Unpredictable–Behavior_20140219.pdf § ‘Practical Guidelines for Expert-Judgement-Based Software Effort Estimation,” Magna Jørgensen, IEEE Software, May/June 2005. § “How do you estimate on an Agile project?,” eBook, ThoughtWorks, https://goo.gl/ES5M3c § “Using the COSMIC Method to Estimate Agile User Stories,” Jean-Marc Desharnais, Luigi Buglione, Bugra Kocatürk, Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Product Focused Software Development and Process Improvement § “On the problem of the software cost function,” J. J. Dolado, Information and Software Technology 43 (2001) 61–72. § Software Project Effort Estimation: Foundations and Best Practice Guidelines for Success, 2014th Edition, Adam Trendowicz and Ross Jeffery, Springer. § “Unit effects in project estimation: It matters whether you estimate in work-hours or workdays,” Magne Jørgensen Journal of Systems and Software (2015).
  7. 7. Estimating Software Development Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 39 § “Estimating Software Development Effort based on Use Cases – Experiences from Industry,” Bente Anda , Hege Dreiem , Dag I. K. Sjøberg1, and Magne Jørgensen, Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on The Unified Modeling Language, Modeling Languages, Concepts, and Tools, Pages 487-502 § “A Neuro-Fuzzy Model with SEER-SEM for Software Effort Estimation,” Wei Lin Du, Danny Ho, Luiz Fernando Capretz, 25th International Forum on COCOMO and Systems/Software Cost Modeling, Los Angeles, CA, 2010. § “A Program Manager's Guide For Software Cost Estimating,” Andrew L. Dobbs, Naval Postgraduate School, December 2002. § “An Engineering Context For Software Engineering,” Richard D. Riehle, September 2008, Naval Postgraduate School. § “Application of Real Options theory to software engineering for strategic decision making in software related capital investments,” Albert O. Olagbemiro, Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2008. § “Next Generation Software Estimating Framework: 25 Years and Thousands of Projects Later,” Michael A. Ross, Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics, Volume 1, 2008 - Issue 2. § “A Probabilistic Method for Predicting Software Code Growth,” Michael A. Ross, Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics, Volume 4, 2011 - Issue 2 § “Application of selected software cost estimating models to a tactical communications switching system: tentative analysis of model applicability to an ongoing development program,” William B. Collins, Naval Postgraduate School § “An examination of project management and control requirements and alternatives at FNOC,” Charlotte Ruth Gross, Naval Postgraduate School. § “Software cost estimation through Bayesian inference of software size, In Kyoung Park, Naval Postgraduate School. § “Using the agile development methodology and applying best practice project management processes,” Gary R. King, Naval Postgraduate School. § “Calibrating Function Points Using Neuro-Fuzzy Technique,” Vivian Xia Danny Ho Luiz F. Capretz, 21st International Forum on Systems, Software and COCOMO Cost Modeling, Washington, 2006. § Practical Software Project Estimation: A Toolkit for Estimating Software Development Effort & Duration, Peter Hill, International Software Benchmarking Standards Group. § Software Estimation Best Practices, Tools & Techniques: A Complete Guide for Software Project Estimators, Murali K. Chemuturi, J. Ross Publishing, August 2009. § Software Project Cost and Schedule Estimating: Best Practices, William H. Roetzheim, Prentice Hall. § Estimating the Scope of Software Projects Using Statistics, Louis Newstrom, Louis Newstrom Publisher, December 4, 2015. § “Organizational Structure Impacts Flight Software Cost Risk,” Jairus M. Hihn , Karen Lum, and Erik Monson, Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics, Volume 2, 2009 - Issue 1. § “Estimate of the appropriate Sprint length in agile development by conducting simulation,” Ryushi Shiohama, Hironori Washizaki, Shin Kuboaki, Kazunori Sakamoto, and Yoshiaki Fukazawa, 2012 Agile Conference, 13-17 August 2012, Dallas Texas
  8. 8. Estimating Software Development Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 40 § “Advancement of decision making in Agile Projects by applying Logistic Regression on Estimates,” Lakshminarayana Kompella, 2013 IEEE 8th International Conference on Global Software Engineering Workshops. § “Estimating in Actual Time,” Moses M. Hohman, IEEE Proceedings of the Agile Development Conference (ADC’05), Denver, Colorado 24-29 July, 2005 § “Cost Estimation In Agile Development Projects,” Siobhan Keaveney and Kieran Conboy, ECIS 2006 Proceedings § “Coping with the Cone of Uncertainty: An Empirical Study of the SAIV Process Model,” Da Yang, Barry Boehm , Ye Yang, Qing Wang, and Mingshu Li, ICSP 2007, LNCS 4470, pp. 37–48, 2007 § “Combining Estimates with Planning Poker – An Empirical Study,” Kjetil Moløkken-Østvold and Nils Christian Haugen, Proceedings of the 2007 Australian Software Engineering Conference (ASWEC'07). § “A Case Study Research on Software Cost Estimation Using Experts’ Estimates, Wideband Delphi, and Planning Poker Technique,” Taghi Javdani Gandomani , Koh Tieng Wei, and Abdulelah Khaled Binhamid, International Journal of Software Engineering and Its Applications, Vol. 8, No. 11 (2014), pp. 173-182. § “Algorithmic Based and Non-Algorithmic Based Approaches to Estimate the Software Effort,” WanJiang Han , TianBo Lu , XiaoYan Zhang , LiXin Jiang and Weijian Li, International Journal of Multimedia and Ubiquitous Engineering, Vol. 10, No. 4 (2015), pp. 141-154. § “Reducing Estimation Uncertainty with Continuous Assessment: Tracking the 'Cone of Uncertainty’” Pongtip Aroonvatanaporn, Chatchai Sinthop and Barry Boehm, Center for Systems and Software Engineering University of Southern California Los Angeles, CA 90089, ASE’10, September 20–24, 2010, Antwerp, Belgium, 2010. § “Integrated Approach of Software Project Size Estimation,” Brajesh Kumar Singh, Akash Punhani, and A. K. Misra, International Journal of Software Engineering and Its Applications Vol. 10, No. 2 (2016), pp. 45-64. § “Investigating the Effect of Using Methodology on Development Effort in Software Projects,” Vahid B. Khatibi, Dayang N. A. Jawawi, and Elham Khatibi, International Journal of Software Engineering and Its Applications Vol. 6, No. 2, April, 2012. § “Data-Driven Decision Making as a Tool to Improve Software Development Productivity,” Mary Erin Brown, Walden University, 2013 § “Applying Agile Practices to Space-Based Software Systems,” Arlene Minkiewicz, Software Technology Conference, Long Beach, CA 31 March – 3 April, 2014 § “Estimating the Effort Overhead in Global Software Development,” Ansgar Lamersdorf, Jurgen Munch, Alicia Fernandez-del Viso Torre, Carlos Rebate Sanchez, and Dieter Rombach, 2010 5th IEEE International Conference on Global Software Engineering § “A Proposed Framework for Software Effort Estimation Using the Combinational Approach of Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks,” Pawandeep Kaur and Rupinder Singh, International Journal of Hybrid Information Technology Vol. 8, No. 10 (2015), pp. 73-80. § “Software Estimating Rules of Thumb,” Capers Jones, http://www.compaid.com/caiinternet/ezine/capers-rules.pdf
  9. 9. Estimating Software Development Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 41 § “Why Are Estimates Always Wrong: Estimation Bias and Strategic Misestimation,” Daniel D. Galorath, http://www.iceaaonline.com/ready/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/RI03-Paper- Galorath-Estimates-Always-Wrong.pdf § “Using planning poker for combining expert estimates in software projects,” K. Moløkken- Østvold, N. C. Haugen, and H. C. Benestad, Journal of Systems and Software, vol. 81, issue 12 (2008) pp. 2106–2117. § “Effort Distribution to Estimate Cost in Small to Medium Software Development Project with Use Case Points,” Putu Linda Primandari and Sholiq, The Third Information Systems International Conference, 2015 § “Estimation of IT-Projects Highlights of a Workshop,” Manfred Bundschuh, Metrics News, Vol. 4, Nr. 2, December 1999, pp. 29 – 37, https://www.itmpi.org/Portals/10/PDF/bundschuh-est.pdf § “Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice,” Bent Flyvbjerg, European Planning Studies Vol. 16, No. 1, January 2008. § “The Use of Precision of Software Development Effort Estimates to Communicate Uncertainty,” Magne Jørgensen, Software Quality Days. The Future of Systems-and Software Development. Springer International Publishing, 2016. § “Numerical anchors and their strong effects on software development effort estimates,” Erik Løhrea, and Magne Jørgensen, Journal of Systems and Software (2015). § “A Neuro-Fuzzy Model for Function Point Calibration,” Wei Xia, Danny Ho, and Luiz Fernando Capretz, WSEAS, Transactions On Information Science & Applications, Issue 1, Volume 5, January 2008. § “Unit effects in project estimation: It matters whether you estimate in work-hours or workdays,” Magne Jørgensen, Journal of Systems and Software (2015), https://www.simula.no/file/time-unit-effect-woauthorinfpdf/download § “Fallacies and biases when adding effort estimates,” Magne Jørgensen, Proceedings at Euromicro/SEEA. : IEEE, 2014. § “How Does Project Size Affect Cost Estimation Error? Statistical Artifacts and Methodological Challenges,” International Journal of Project Management 30 (2012): 751- 862, https://www.simula.no/file/simulasimula742pdf/download § “Does the Use of Fibonacci Numbers in Planning Poker Affect Effort Estimates?” Ritesh Tamrakar and Magne Jørgensen, 16th International Conference on Evaluation & Assessment in Software Engineering, 2012. § “Using inferred probabilities to measure the accuracy of imprecise forecasts,” Paul Lehner, Avra Michelson, Leonard Adelman, and Anna Goodman, Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 7, No. 6, November 2012, pp. 728–740. § “Software Development Effort Estimation: Why it fails and how to improve it,” Magne Jørgensen, Simula Research Laboratory & University of Oslo, https://www.simula.no/file/simulasimula1688pdf/download § Contrasting Ideal and Realistic Conditions As a Means to Improve Judgment-Based Software Development Effort Estimation,” Magne Jørgensen, Information and Software Technology 53 (2011): 1382-1390.
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  17. 17. Estimating Software Development Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 49 § “Scaling Agile Estimation Methods with a Parametric Cost Model,” Carl Friedrich Kreß, Oliver Hummel, Mahmudul Huq, ICSEA 2014 : The Ninth International Conference on Software Engineering Advances, 2014 § “Expert Estimation and Historical Data: An Empirical Study,” Gabriela Robiolo, Silvana Santos, and Bibiana Rossi, ICSEA 2013 : The Eighth International Conference on Software Engineering Advances § “Agile Monitoring Using The Line Of Balance,” Eduardo Miranda, Institute for Software Research – Carnegie-Mellon University and Pierre Bourque, École de technologie supérieure – Université du Québec § “Managerial Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty,” Ari Riabacke, IAENG International Journal of Computer Science, 32:4, IJCS_32_4_12 § “Simple Method Proposal for Cost Estimation from Work Breakdown Structure,” Sérgio Sequeira and Eurico Lopes, Conference on ENTERprise Information Systems / International Conference on Project Management/ Conference on Health and Social Care Information Systems and Technologies, CENTERIS / ProjMAN / HCist 2015 October 7-9, 2015. § “From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right,” Bent Flyvbjerg, Aalborg University, Denmark, Project Management Journal, vol. 37, no. 3, August 2006, pp. 5-15. § “The Uncertainty Principle in Software Engineering,” Hadar Ziv and Debra Richardson, ICSE 97, 9th International Conference on Software Engineering, Boston MA, 17 ‒ 23 May, 1997 § “Analyzing Software Effort Estimation using k means Clustered Regression Approach,” Geeta Nagpal, Moin Uddin, and Arvinder Kaur, ACM SIGSOFT Software Engineering Notes, January 2013 Volume 38 Number 1. § “Assuring Software Cost Estimates: Is it an Oxymoron?,” Jairus Hihnl and Grant Tregre, Goddard Space Flight Center, 2013 46th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences. § “How Does NASA Estimate Software Cost? Summary Findings and Recommendations,” Jairus Hihn, Lisa VanderAar, Manuel Maldonado, Pedro Martinez, Grant Tregre, NASA Cost Symposium, OCE Software Working Group, August 27-29, 2013. § “Calibrating Software Cost Models Using Bayesian Analysis,” Sunita Chulani, Barry Boehm, Bert Steece, USC-CSE 1998 § “Software Project and Quality Modelling Using Bayesian Networks,” Norman Fenton, Peter Hearty, Martin Neil, and Łukasz Radliński, Elsevier, November 31, 2013. § “Software Project Level Estimation Model Framework based on Bayesian Belief Networks,” Hao Wang, Fei Peng, and Chao Zhang, 2006 Sixth International Conference on Quality Software (QSIC'06), 27-28 October, 2006. § “Using Bayesian Belief Networks to Model Software Project Management Antipatterns,” Dimitrios Settas, Stamatia Bibi, Panagiotis Sfetsos, Ioannis Stamelos, and Vassilis Gerogiannis, Software Engineering Research, Management and Applications, ACIS International Conference on (2006), Seattle, Washington, Aug. 9, 2006 to Aug. 11, 2006. § “A Survey Of Bayesian Net Models For Software Development Effort Prediction,” Lukasz Radlinski, International Journal Of Software Engineering And Computing, Vol. 2, No. 2, July- December 2010
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  19. 19. Estimating Software Development Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 51 § “Application of Sizing Estimation Techniques for Business Critical Software Project Management,” Parvez Mahmood Khan and M.M. Sufyan Beg, International Journal of Soft Computing And Software Engineering (JSCSE), Vol. 3, No. 6, 2013 § “Double Whammy – How ICT Projects are Fooled by Randomness and Screwed by Political Intent,” Alexander Budzier and Bent Flyvbjerg, Saïd Business School working papers, August 2011. § “Software Cost Estimation Framework for Service-Oriented Architecture Systems using Divide-and-Conquer Approach,” Zheng Li and Jacky Keung, Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Service-Oriented System Engineering (SOSE 2010), pp. 47-54, Nanjing, China, June 4-5, 2010. § “Investigating Effort Prediction Of Software Projects On The ISBSG Dataset,” Sanaa Elyassami and Ali Idri, International Journal of Artificial Intelligence & Applications (IJAIA), Vol. 3, No. 2, March 2012. § “Resource Estimation in Software Engineering,” Lionel C. Briand, Encyclopedia of Software Engineering, John Wiley and Sons, 2001. § Software Measurement and Estimation: A Practical Approach, Linda M. Laird and M. Carol Brennan, Wiley-IEEE Computer Society Press, June 2006 § CECS 543/643 Advanced Software Engineering, Dar-Biau Liu, California State University, Long Beach, Spring 2012 § “Software Cost Estimation Review,” Alphonce Omondo Ongere, Helsinki Metropolia University of Applied Sciences, 30 May 2013. § “Software estimation process: a comparison of the estimation practice between Norway and Spain,” Paul Salaberria, 1 December 2014, Universitetet I Bergenm. § “Comparison of available Methods to Estimate Effort, Performance and Cost with the Proposed Method,” M. Pauline, Dr. P. Aruna, Dr. B. Shadaksharappa, International Journal of Engineering Inventions, Volume 2, Issue 9 (May 2013), pp. 55-68 § “Applying Fuzzy ID3 Decision Tree for Software Effort Estimation,” Ali Idri and Sanaa Elyassam, IJCSI International Journal of Computer Science Issues, Vol. 8, Issue 4, No 1, July 2011. § “Software Effort Estimation with Ridge Regression and Evolutionary Attribute Selection,” Efi Papatheocharous, Harris Papadopoulos and Andreas S. Andreou, 3d Artificial Intelligence Techniques in Software Engineering Workshop, 7 October, 2010. § “A Comparison of Different Project Duration Forecasting Methods Using Earned Value Metrics,” Stephan Vandevoorde and Mario Vanhoucke, International Journal of Project Management, 24 (2006), 289-302 § “Quantifying IT Forecast Quality,” J. L. Eveleens and C. Verhoef, Science of Computer Programming, Volume 74, Issues 11–12, November 2009, Pages 934-988. § “Predictive Modeling: Principles and Practices,” Rick Hefner, Dean Caccavo, Philip Paul, and Rasheed Baqai, NDIA Systems Engineering Conference, pp. 20-23 October 2008. § “Modeling, Simulation & Data Mining: Answering Tough Cost, Date& Staff Forecasts Questions,” Troy Magennis and Larry Maccherone, Agile 2012, 13-17 August, 2013, Dallas Texas. § How to Measure Anything, Douglas Hubbard, John Wiley and Sons, 2014.
  20. 20. Estimating Software Development Integration of Agile and Earned Value Management 52 § All About Agile: Agile Management Made Easy!, Kelly Waters, CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, March 19, 2012. § “Enhance Accuracy In Software Cost And Schedule Estimation By Using 'Uncertainty Analysis And Assessment’ In The System Modeling Process,” Kardile Vilas Vasantrao, International Journal of Research & Innovation in Computer Engineering, Vol 1, Issue 1, (6-18), August 2011. § “Estimating Perspectives, Richard D. Stutzke, 20th International COCOMO and Software Cost Modeling Forum, Los Angeles 25-28 October 2005 § “Introduction to Systems Cost Uncertainty Analysis: An Engineering Systems Perspective,” Paul R. Garvey, National Institute of Aerospace (NIA) Systems Analysis & Concepts Directorate NASA Langley Research Center, 2 May 2006. § “Cost and Schedule Uncertainty Analysis of Growth in Support of JCL,” Darren Elliot and Charles Hunt, 2014 NASA Cost Symposium, 13 August 2014. § “Measurement of Software Size: Contributions of COSMIC to Estimation Improvements,” Alain Abran, Charles Symons, Christof Ebert, Frank Vogelezang, and Hassan Soubra, ICEAA International Training Symposium, Bristol England, 2016. § “What Does a Mature Cost Engineering Organization Look Like?” Dale Shermon, International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association (ICEAA) 2016 18th to 20th October 2016. § “A Hybrid Model for Estimating Software Project Effort from Use Case Points,” Mohammad Azzeh and Ali Bou Nassif, Applied Soft Computing journal, Elsevier § “A Deep Learning Model for Estimating Story Points,” Morakot Choetkiertikul, Hoa Khanh Dam, Truyen Tran, Trang Pham, Aditya Ghose, and Tim Menzies, § “A Hybrid Intelligent Model for Software Cost Estimation,” Wei Lin Du, Luiz Fernando Capretz, Ali Bou Nassif, Danny Ho, Journal of Computer Science, 9(11):1506-1513, 2013 § “An Empirical Analysis of Task Allocation in Scrum-based Agile Programming,” Jun Lin, Han Yu, Zhiqi Shen § “Agile Planning & Metrics That Matter,” Sally Elatta, Agile Transformation for Government. § Introduction to Uncertainty Quantification, T. J. Sullivan, Springer, 2016 § Generalized Estimating Equations, 2nd Edition, James W. Hardin, Chapman and Hall, 2012. § Software Estimation Best Practices, Tools & Techniques: A Complete Guide for Software Project Estimators, Murali K. Chemuturi § “#NoEstimates, But #YesMeasurements: Why Shouldn’t agile teams waste their time and effort in estimating,” Pekka Forselius, ISBSG IT Confidence Conference, 2016 § “Agile Benchmarks: What Can You Concluded?” Don Reifer, ISBSG IT Confidence Conference, 2016 § “Improve Estimation Maturity using Functional Size Measurement and Industry Data,” Drs. Harold van Heeringen, ISBSG IT Confidence Conference, 2016 § “Why Can’t People Estimate: Estimation Bias and Mitigation,” Dan Galorath, ISBSG IT Confidence Conference, 2015 § “Why Can’t People Estimate: Estimation Bias and Strategic Mis-Estimation,” Daniel D. Galorath, ISBSG IT Confidence Conference, 2014 § “Estimation ‒ Next Level,” Ton Dekkers, ISBSG IT Confidence Conference, 2013.
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