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Milankovic climate Dalj Pandzic 2009

Milankovic climate Dalj Pandzic 2009

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Milankovic climate-dalj-pandzic-2009 Milankovic climate-dalj-pandzic-2009 Presentation Transcript

  • Climate Changes and Impacts: Possible Scenario up to 2100 Krešo Pandžić Meteorological and Hydrological Service, CROATIA
  • Content 1 Climate and climate system 2 Paleoclimate 3 Recent global warming 4 Precipitation amount trend 5 Snow and ice cover 6 Processes in the oceans 7 Climate extreme 8 Global climate scenario 9 Conclusion
  • 1. Climate and Climate System
    • Climate is collective weather
    • Climate system :
    • atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, radiation
  •  
  • Lithosphere and Biosphere Hydrosphere
  • CRIOSPHERE
  • GREENHOUSE EFFECT
  • - Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) - the burning of the fossil fuels - Kyoto Protocol - UN Climate Convention - EU Directives - IPCC Recommendations
  • RADIATIVE FORCING
  • 2. Paleoclimate
  • Earth's Orbital Changes
  • Paleoclimate cycles
  • The Last Interglacial and the Arctic
  • The Last 1000 Years
  • 3. Recent Global Warming
  • Recent Global Warming
  •  
  •  
  •  
  • 3. Precipitation Amount Trend
  •  
  •  
  • Palmer’s Drought Severity Index
  • 5. Snow and Ice Cover
  • March-April NH Snow Covering Area
  • CHANGE IN SEA ICE EXTENT Arctic Antarctic
  • ARCTIC Summer 1983 Summer 2003
  • 6. Processes in the Oceans
  • PROCESSES IN THE OCEAN
  • Global sea surface anomalies - El Nino
  •  
  • 7. Climate Extremes
  • Cold Extreme Decrease
  • Warm Extreme Increase
  • Extreme Hot Summer 2003 in Central Europe
  • Extreme Warm Summer 2003 in Croatia
  • Extreme Warm Winter 2006/2007 in Croatia
  • Number of Very Wet Day Increase
  • Sahel Recent Drought
  •  
  • 8. Global Climate Scenario
  • Comprehensive Climate Models
  • CO 2 Temperature
  • GLOBAL WARMING PROJECTION
  • Decade Temperature Projection
  • REGIONAL TEMPERATURE PRPJECTION
  • European Temperature Projection
  • EUROPEAN PRECIPITATION PROJECTION
  • Frost Days Heat Waves Growing Season
  •  
  • Precipitation Intensity Dry Days
  • MORE HOT WEATHER
  • Sea Level Rise
  • Sea Level Rise
  • CO 2 Concentration Scenarios
  • 8. Conclusion - Climate has been changed in the past in long time-scale (1000 years) - Recent global warming on a very short i.e. decade scale (10 to 100 years) - very probably (90 %) caused by man - some measure to limit CO 2 emission - Kyoto Protocol, UN Climate Convention, - IPCC - Political decisions are very important - Role of National Meteorological Service - Agencies for Environmental Protection - education of young people
  • THANK YOU