Household modeling for ex-anteevaluation and targeting of climate         smart agriculture             Mario Herrero     ...
This work involves many othersAt ILRI: Mariana Rufino, Mark van Wijk, Carlos QuirosCCAFS theme leaders: Philip Thornton (f...
BackgroundCCAFS engaged heavily in analysing regional and globalimpacts on agriculture and exploring future pathways ofagr...
Systems and livelihoods in transition: the target is moving!Can we ensure that the next transition is sustainable, equitab...
A game of winners and losers…at all scalesSimulated percentage maize production changes to 2030 and 2050, bycountry and sy...
Understanding complex systems                         Herrero et al, Science (2010)
Monthly calendar of different activities of the system                                          Wa, Upper West, Ghana     ...
There are always trade-offsDifferent practices…Different farming systems….                      income                    ...
Site: Sodo, EthiopiaWhat’s the likely impact of alternativeinterventions?  Plot        Crop  Homestead Enset, coffee, kale...
Site: Sodo, Ethiopia             Current             managementFood securityCow feedingLabour/capitalCashSoil fertility   ...
Site: Sodo, Ethiopia             Intervention 1   Application of fertilizer to             Food crop        maize plots.Fo...
Site: Sodo, Ethiopia             Intervention 2   Replace native grassland             Feed crop        with improved past...
Site: Sodo, Ethiopia             Intervention 3   Introduction of cowpea in             Food/feed crop   the system.Food s...
Site: Sodo, Ethiopia             Intervention 4   Subsidy for barley             Food crop        productionFood securityC...
Adaptation, risk management andmitigation options will depend largelyon how we shape the world• Several options exist thou...
Linking research at different levels Global visioning                          Global impacts    activities               ...
Ex-ante analysis and targeting ofoptions• Studying livelihoods transitions• Targeting the vulnerable (winners and losers)•...
CCAFS activities in relation to   household modelling
Household data collection in the CCAFSsites• Development of simplified, but robust and standard  data collection protocols...
CCAFS sites in West Africa, East Africa and South Asia  All survey materials and data at ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/baselin...
Data collection +household modelingprotocol :     Climate   Family  structure/gender     Land management  Livestock  m...
A review of farm household modellingwith a focus on climate change                • A systematic review of 16000          ...
Workshop: Farm-household Modeling with a focus onFood security, Climate change adaptation, Riskmanagement and Mitigation: ...
Conclusions from the workshop• Modelling approaches are available to address household-level  questions. This needs to inc...
Next steps• Continue the data collection in the regions• Develop suitable databases and repositories for the  information ...
Conclusions• Household modelling can play a key role in the ex-  ante evaluation and targeting of adaptation and  mitigati...
Thank you
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

CCAFS Science Meeting Item 07 Mario Herrero - Household modeling

884 views
715 views

Published on

CCAFS Science Meeting presentation by Mario Herrero - "Household modeling for ex-ante evaluation and targeting of climate smart agriculture"

Published in: Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
884
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
7
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

CCAFS Science Meeting Item 07 Mario Herrero - Household modeling

  1. 1. Household modeling for ex-anteevaluation and targeting of climate smart agriculture Mario Herrero CCAFS Science Meeting, Copenhagen, May 2012
  2. 2. This work involves many othersAt ILRI: Mariana Rufino, Mark van Wijk, Carlos QuirosCCAFS theme leaders: Philip Thornton (funding/strategy),Jim Hansen, Lini Wollenberg, Andy JarvisCCAFS Regional Coordinators (funding): James Kinyangi(EA), Robert Zougmore (WA), Pramod Aggarwal (SA)CG centres: IWMI, ICRISAT, CIMMYT, ICRAF (for now)Universities and Research Centres: Wageningen,Hohenheim, Tasmania, Oregon, Washington State (for now)
  3. 3. BackgroundCCAFS engaged heavily in analysing regional and globalimpacts on agriculture and exploring future pathways ofagricultural development through scenario analysisConsiderable work on adaptation and mitigation practices at alocal levelEx-ante assessment and targeting: what might work whereand how this might change depending on the notions of thefutureHousehold modelling: offers the possibility of helping withthese issues. A well established area, large community of scientists
  4. 4. Systems and livelihoods in transition: the target is moving!Can we ensure that the next transition is sustainable, equitable and helps feed the world? W. Africa 1966 – pastoral system 2004 – crop-livestock system
  5. 5. A game of winners and losers…at all scalesSimulated percentage maize production changes to 2030 and 2050, bycountry and system Mixed Mixed Mixed National rainfed rainfed rainfed Production temperate humid arid 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 Burundi 9.1 9.1 14.4 18.1 -1.8 -8.8 - - Kenya 15.0 17.8 33.3 46.5 -4.6 -9.8 -1.1 -8.4 Rwanda 10.8 14.9 13.4 18.8 5.4 3.6 1.1 2.7 Tanzania -3.1 -8.1 7.5 8.7 -1.6 -6.4 -5.1 -11.1 Uganda -2.2 -8.6 4.9 3.1 -4.6 -12.9 -1.1 -6.3 Mean of 4 combinations of GCM and emissions scenario Winners Losers Thornton et al. (2010)
  6. 6. Understanding complex systems Herrero et al, Science (2010)
  7. 7. Monthly calendar of different activities of the system Wa, Upper West, Ghana Dry Rainy Dry Weather calendar Groundnuts Yams Cropping calendar Sorghum Cut & Crop Critical Grazing Feeding calendar Carry residue Food security Energy Prot. & Ene. Family’s deficit deficit nutritionHigh Very High High Lo High Low Low Cash demands high w J F M A M J J A S O N D Gonzalez-Estrada et al. 2006
  8. 8. There are always trade-offsDifferent practices…Different farming systems…. income 1 0.5 external inputs food security 0 water use GHG mixed pastoral
  9. 9. Site: Sodo, EthiopiaWhat’s the likely impact of alternativeinterventions? Plot Crop Homestead Enset, coffee, kale, sweet potato, maize Plot1 Maize Plot 2 Sweet potato, wheat Plot 3 Maize Plot 4 Sweet potato Plot 5 Barley Plot 6 Maize Plot 7 Unimproved pastureLivestock: 1 cow, 1 ox Profit: Birr 2,381/yr
  10. 10. Site: Sodo, Ethiopia Current managementFood securityCow feedingLabour/capitalCashSoil fertility Critical Adequate
  11. 11. Site: Sodo, Ethiopia Intervention 1 Application of fertilizer to Food crop maize plots.Food securityCow feedingLabour/capitalCashSoil fertility Critical Adequate
  12. 12. Site: Sodo, Ethiopia Intervention 2 Replace native grassland Feed crop with improved pasture.Food securityCow feedingLabour/capitalCashSoil fertility Critical Adequate
  13. 13. Site: Sodo, Ethiopia Intervention 3 Introduction of cowpea in Food/feed crop the system.Food securityCow feedingLabour/capitalCashSoil fertility Critical Adequate
  14. 14. Site: Sodo, Ethiopia Intervention 4 Subsidy for barley Food crop productionFood securityCow feedingLabour/capitalCashSoil fertility Critical Adequate
  15. 15. Adaptation, risk management andmitigation options will depend largelyon how we shape the world• Several options exist though largely dependent on our vision of world development and how it plays out in different regions• essential to link household modelling to scenarios of change• Different paradigms of agricultural development (industrial vs pro-poor smallholders, large vs family farms)• Globalisation and trade patterns• Consumption patterns• Carbon constraints• Roles and incentives for technology adoption• Growth in other sectors• Power relationships
  16. 16. Linking research at different levels Global visioning Global impacts activities Global Scenarios modelling Participatory Regional Scenarios Regional impactsscenario building modelling Household &Action research Farmer/village community perspectives impacts modelling Thornton et al 2012
  17. 17. Ex-ante analysis and targeting ofoptions• Studying livelihoods transitions• Targeting the vulnerable (winners and losers)• Which options could fit in which systems under which conditions?• How upscalable to broader recommendation domains/regions?• How robust are options across scenarios and farming systems• Priority setting for investments (how many farmers, what areas, how much?)• Mitigation / adaptation synergies
  18. 18. CCAFS activities in relation to household modelling
  19. 19. Household data collection in the CCAFSsites• Development of simplified, but robust and standard data collection protocols• Collecting detailed information from representative farming systems from the CCAFS sites• 150-200 households per site: approx 3000 surveys• Data collection during 2012• Statistical analysis and modelling of adaptation, risk management and mitigation options from 2012 (with input from centres and themes)• Funded by Theme 4 and the regions
  20. 20. CCAFS sites in West Africa, East Africa and South Asia All survey materials and data at ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/baseline-surveys Dataverse at dvn.iq.harvard.edu Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network at amkn.org
  21. 21. Data collection +household modelingprotocol :  Climate  Family structure/gender  Land management Livestock management  Labour allocation Family’s dietary pattern Farm’sHerrero et al 2007 sales and expenses, income
  22. 22. A review of farm household modellingwith a focus on climate change • A systematic review of 16000 thousand references • Covered long term adaptation, risk mangement and mitigation • Covered diverse modelling techniques (LP, agent based models, simulation, others) • Identification of useful tools for CCAFS work • Integrated models using more than one modelling technique more suitable for CC questions • Engagement with other modellers
  23. 23. Workshop: Farm-household Modeling with a focus onFood security, Climate change adaptation, Riskmanagement and Mitigation: a way forward Amsterdam, The Netherlands 23 to 25 April 2012• Goal: to identify current potential of and weaknesses in farm- and household-level models, and laying out practical pathways to improve these models to address CCFAS systems questions
  24. 24. Conclusions from the workshop• Modelling approaches are available to address household-level questions. This needs to include higher levels of integration to capture key drivers.• It is possible to analyze household-level questions related to climate change in a reasonable short time (6 months to 1 year) span with the existing tools.• Activities to develop repositories for models and data are urgently needed to increase further development of models and make better use of existing knowledge.• A team of modellers with different expertise is needed to address questions related to climate change agriculture and food security.• The research questions must lead to the suite of models and expertise needed. Not much model development is needed.
  25. 25. Next steps• Continue the data collection in the regions• Develop suitable databases and repositories for the information for open access by CCAFS and partners• Data analyses• Linking with the international household modelling teams to prepare potential tools for analysis• Extensions to community-level modelling• Maybe fund some additional development as needed
  26. 26. Conclusions• Household modelling can play a key role in the ex- ante evaluation and targeting of adaptation and mitigation work of CCAFS• It can help link work at multiple-scales: for example the scenarios work in the regions to impacts and options in different types of farming systems• It can lead to robust multi-centre and multi-theme work by exploiting complementary skills to solve complex problems• ….and provide realistic, sometimes simplified, answers
  27. 27. Thank you

×