Managing crop production                     uncertainties and climate                     variability though a map-      ...
Case Study : Bungulla Farming7,200 hectares of  croppingAverage 320 mm Annual  rainfall – sandy soils                  Har...
Operating Economic Assumption 1Price of oil to go up              Diesel Price monthly retail              (US cents/gallo...
Operating Economic Assumption 2  Corresponding increase in the price of fertiliser
Operating Economic Assumption 3                            Wheat prices in Australian dollars at Silo (annual average)    ...
Despite some recent high grainprices in the last 5 years, grainfarmers have averaged a -1.4%     productivity decline     ...
Climate Risk        Median Precipitation change by 2030??Suggested: “Decreases of around 5% prevail in winter and spring, ...
Proposed Management Action  Seek to develop a 2-3% increase in  productivity per year and manage  risks to protect product...
How do we determine data needs?Does data drive management? (often the case)  Letting available data use up time because it...
Why maps?• Most suited for managing large geographical  and spatially complex units• Bungulla operates 68 paddock “portfol...
Critical points of Production failure –responsibilities for Jim (farm manager)• Pre-plant operations – Weeds, moisture, cr...
Data options for production•   Soil (nutrient, pH, structure)•   Climate (temp., RH, evaporation, light)•   Water (soil mo...
Example1 MANAGING NUTRITION
Yield maps
Mean relative yield – normalised from           historical data
Stabilisation of yield pattern to check              consistency
Operate some field trials if required
Fertiliser application to variable       degrees of precision
Adding information to     a farm map
Increasing Nitrogen Use                 Efficiency (NUE)                      Modified      constant Old yield            ...
Example2 MANAGING WEED CONTROL
New potential technical applications:         WEEDSEEKERS
What it means to the farmerArea to be sprayed           264 hectares                             wild cotton, peach vine, ...
Weed maps?
Example3 INTER-ACTIVE RELATIONSHIPS
What’s causingthis???
Critical Points of Production failure –  responsibilities for (Brad J) owner• Finance - Cash supply, stubble, crop options...
Crop options
Example1 MANAGING FINANCE DATA
Sell to feed or keep stubble                          Helps current cash flow but                          might compromis...
Gross margin maps: $ return by area
Example2 MANAGING CONTAMINATEDRUN-OFF
Evaluating environmental risksusing Topography & vegetation
Summary• Management & Operations communicate  comfortably with maps• Operation concentrate on PROCESS with  feedback• Mana...
Thank you
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Managing crop production uncertainties and climate variability through a map-based system - Jean-Francois Rochcouste

619 views

Published on

Published in: Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
619
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
3
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
10
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • Would like to acknowledge support of Bungulla Farming Director Brad Jones & Farm manager Jim Betti; also the various sponsors listed. The presentation has relevance to farm management relating to both mitigation and adaptation; but this discussion will relate more to adaptation strategies.
  • Bungulla farming is located in the cereal wheat belt of western Australia and operates about 7000 hectares of cropping wheat, lupins, chickpeas and canola. Given the light sandy soils, production is predominantly reliant on regular winter rainfall. Any changes in either timing or degree of winter rainfall would have significant production consequences.
  • Management is aware that input costs is strongly tied to the cost of oil used to operate farm machinery and transport
  • Also indirectly the cost of fertiliser which is highly energy intensive
  • There is also an acceptance that grain prices is a global commodity with strong competitive pressures
  • This has meant that margins are under pressure of rising input costs against competitive grain prices
  • The possibility of climate changes affecting the reliability of rainfall holds potential consequences to production.
  • A risk analysis requires that plans are put in place to maintain productivity. The risk of crop failure suggests that managing investment cost away from a prescriptive system such pre-applied fertiliser, to a more opportunistic system, such as applying on predicted rain events is a possible option. This type of management change is seeking to improve productivity performance on a regular basis in managing the main input costs variable fuel and fertiliser.
  • If decision making is to be based on data; then it is important to consider how this data is obtained, its reliability and workability
  • A map based system suits large areas
  • Variable rate controllers minimises unnecessary application (cost) and improves speed of application (time). Value of being able to cover more area ahead of a rain front.
  • Taking the concept of variable rate to chemical application for much the same reason cost and timing
  • Managing crop production uncertainties and climate variability through a map-based system - Jean-Francois Rochcouste

    1. 1. Managing crop production uncertainties and climate variability though a map- based system By Jean-Francois (John) Rochecouste Univ. of Qld. Brad Jones Bungulla Farming Pty Ltd James Betti Bungulla Farming Pty LtdAcknowledgment:
    2. 2. Case Study : Bungulla Farming7,200 hectares of croppingAverage 320 mm Annual rainfall – sandy soils Hard pan layer
    3. 3. Operating Economic Assumption 1Price of oil to go up Diesel Price monthly retail (US cents/gallon) Global Financial crisis effect
    4. 4. Operating Economic Assumption 2 Corresponding increase in the price of fertiliser
    5. 5. Operating Economic Assumption 3 Wheat prices in Australian dollars at Silo (annual average) 500 450 400 Volatile grain prices 350 Dollars (AUD) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0Average gross income from wheat in 1997 was: Current price at silo1.4 X $193 = $270.2/hectare Cambooya $320.00
    6. 6. Despite some recent high grainprices in the last 5 years, grainfarmers have averaged a -1.4% productivity decline source: ABARE presentation 2010 report to GRDC
    7. 7. Climate Risk Median Precipitation change by 2030??Suggested: “Decreases of around 5% prevail in winter and spring, particularly in the South- west where they reach 10%”CSIRO, 2007, Climate change in Australia – Technical Report 2007
    8. 8. Proposed Management Action Seek to develop a 2-3% increase in productivity per year and manage risks to protect productivity using best available data
    9. 9. How do we determine data needs?Does data drive management? (often the case) Letting available data use up time because its interesting … orLet operational needs determine available data Management determined that ‘data’ should support decisions at critical points of crop production failure using a map based system
    10. 10. Why maps?• Most suited for managing large geographical and spatially complex units• Bungulla operates 68 paddock “portfolios”• Can now be digitally interactive
    11. 11. Critical points of Production failure –responsibilities for Jim (farm manager)• Pre-plant operations – Weeds, moisture, crop option, fertiliser options, frost risk, supply line• Planting – Prescription fertiliser, labour, equipment readiness• Weed, pest and disease control – Link with Agronomists, application logistics• Harvest & storage• Product supply• Staff deployment
    12. 12. Data options for production• Soil (nutrient, pH, structure)• Climate (temp., RH, evaporation, light)• Water (soil moisture, irrigation, water flow)• Topography (drainage, erosion)• Vegetation (vigour, biomass, weeds)• Machinery operation (fertiliser, pesticide, yield)
    13. 13. Example1 MANAGING NUTRITION
    14. 14. Yield maps
    15. 15. Mean relative yield – normalised from historical data
    16. 16. Stabilisation of yield pattern to check consistency
    17. 17. Operate some field trials if required
    18. 18. Fertiliser application to variable degrees of precision
    19. 19. Adding information to a farm map
    20. 20. Increasing Nitrogen Use Efficiency (NUE) Modified constant Old yield Radiometric map thorium sectionTest yieldresults Fertiliser prescription
    21. 21. Example2 MANAGING WEED CONTROL
    22. 22. New potential technical applications: WEEDSEEKERS
    23. 23. What it means to the farmerArea to be sprayed 264 hectares wild cotton, peach vine, milk thistle andWeeds Targeted fleabaneChemical mix 2.6l/ha (roundup max) + 4.0 l/ha (surpass)Water rate 80 l/haActual Usage 4.5%Actual area sprayed 11.88 haActual cost of chemical $583.30Chemical cost normal spray $12,962.40ACTUAL CHEMICAL SAVING $12,379.10
    24. 24. Weed maps?
    25. 25. Example3 INTER-ACTIVE RELATIONSHIPS
    26. 26. What’s causingthis???
    27. 27. Critical Points of Production failure – responsibilities for (Brad J) owner• Finance - Cash supply, stubble, crop options• Environment (created externalities) – salinity, off- site movement of pollutants (drift & run-off)• Climate (long term) – Rainfall, temperature• Staff – maintain & train• Personal
    28. 28. Crop options
    29. 29. Example1 MANAGING FINANCE DATA
    30. 30. Sell to feed or keep stubble Helps current cash flow but might compromise next cropForgoes present cash tosupports next crop
    31. 31. Gross margin maps: $ return by area
    32. 32. Example2 MANAGING CONTAMINATEDRUN-OFF
    33. 33. Evaluating environmental risksusing Topography & vegetation
    34. 34. Summary• Management & Operations communicate comfortably with maps• Operation concentrate on PROCESS with feedback• Management concentrate on big picture outlook• Australia farmers are capable of adapting but it’s a TEAM EFFORT not a brain injection process
    35. 35. Thank you

    ×