Over the past few years the APM Governance SIG has been at the forefront of developing new thinking on governance, for example we have published guides – Directing Change, Co-Directing Change, Sponsoring Change. In recent discussions around specific high profile projects, practitioners have explained how organisations have struggled to apply traditional approaches, methods and controls to the growing number of Agile projects. It is therefore the ambition of the GovSIG to develop guidance for the agile governance of agile projects / portfolios. SIG members came together to explore the governance lessons from Agile projects to date and to set the framework for developing guidance for the governance of Agile projects. There was a short presentation to set the scene and then a workshop session which was led by Brian Wernham and Martin Samphire. Brian Wernham is author of the book “Agile Project Management for Government”.

1. Brian Wernham
“Chaos: a new perspective on Agile governance”
Presented at
APM Governance SIG, London, May 14, 2014
Delegates’
50%
discount
brian.wernham@gmail.com
@BrianUkulele http://bit.ly/special-offer-CWBW50

2. Why are YOU here today?
http://bit.ly/About-Brian
@BrianUkulele
What is
‘Agile’?
‘Agile’ only for
web
development?
‘Agile’ only for
tiny stuff?
‘Agile’ = loss of
control?
What is
‘DSDM’?
‘Agile’ in
mission critical
projects?
2
What is
‘Scrum’?
Are we talking
Governance of a project
of Governance of
portfolios of change?

3. This talk:
1. What is ‘Agile’?
2. What is Agile Governance?
3. Can we be ready for & take advantage of
the unexpected?
- Chaos Theory & Emergent Complexity
4. Kick-off the development of a guide for
Agile Governance
http://bit.ly/About-Brian
@BrianUkulele
3

4. 1. What is Agile?
4

5. The “Big Design Up Front”
mind-set
http://bit.ly/About-Brian
@BrianUkulele
I had better
ask for all
possible
features…
At last – a chance
to get what I
want!
5

6. The Big Design Up Front is born…
http://bit.ly/About-Brian
@BrianUkulele
6

7. The result of Big Design Up
Front…
7

8. D’oh!
http://bit.ly/About-Brian
@BrianUkulele
8

9. http://bit.ly/About-Brian
@BrianUkulele
9

10. As difficult as trying to swim up a
waterfall…
http://bit.ly/About-Brian
@BrianUkulele
10

11. 11

12. 12

13. Scrum at the team level – two
popular methods…
Scrum
DSDM
13

14. 1. ‘Scrum’ – a team level approach
http://bit.ly/About-Brian
Source: Mike Cohn www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/scrum

15. 15Source: DSDM Consortium (DSDM = Driving Strategy, Delivering More)
An overview of two agile methods
2. ‘DSDM’ – a hybrid team/project level approach

16. 2. What is Agile Governance?
16

17. a) Time Driven
“I don’t want it perfect – I want it Thursday”
17
Traditional Agile
Agile inverts the normal project
management paradigm…

18. b) … and minimises Work in Progress
“There is no value in holding stock in a warehouse”
Traditional Agile
Design
Build
Test
Deploy
P/type
?
P/type
P/type
P/type
Agile focuses on flow…

19. Can we define Agile Governance
principles at several levels:
 Project Level?
 Governance of one specific project?
 Scrum? DSDM?
 Programme Level?
 Governance of hybrid programmes that comprises both:
 Waterfall projects
 & Agile projects?
 Portfolio Level?
 Governance across many projects?
19

20. Is ‘Agile Governance’ really about
being adaptable?
20
Traditional
Project
Innovation
project
Hybrid
Programme
Design
Build
Test
Deploy
P/type
P/type
P/type
P/type
Control-freak
Governance
Agile
Governance
Arms-length
Governance
Innovation
Project
Innovation
Project
Traditional
Project
Traditional
Project

21. 3. Can we be ready for & take
advantage of the unexpected?
21
 A brief overview of the practical impact of Chaos Theory
 Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial conditions)
 How long is a piece of string? (Fractals)
 Satisficing a business case (Alternative stable states)
 Complex outcomes from simple systems
 Self-organisation
 Ants
 People (so very different?)

22. Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial
conditions)
For want of a nail the shoe was lost
For want of a shoe the horse was lost
For want of a horse the battle was lost…
22

23. Heat convection – any difference in
initial conditions produces an
unpredicatble outcome after a
while:
23

24. Increase the feedback and the
Lorenz equation becomes unstable
and ‘chaotic’:
24

25. Complexity out of simplicity
e.g. the Lorenz Equation
25

26. Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial
conditions)
For want of a nail the shoe was lost
For want of a shoe the horse was lost
For want of a horse the battle was lost…
26

27. “No two snowflakes are the same”
A simple fractal - The Koch Curve
27

28. “No two snowflakes are the same”
A simple fractal - The Koch Curve
28

29. How long is a piece of string?
(Fractals)
29
Ruler length = x
Answer = y
Ruler length x/2
Answer = y*2.5

30. The result runs away from you the
closer you try to measure it…
30

31. The ‘fractal dimension’ measures
this disappearing event horizon
31

32. How long will it take to add “just a
bit more detail” to a business case
or spec?
32

33. Alternative stable states
33
“Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems”
Marten Scheffer, Nature, 2001

34. Self-organisation - Ants
34

35. Self-organisation - Ants
35

36. Self-organisation - People
36

37. References
 Daňa, Josef
 “Chaos Theory in Project Management”, Masaryk University, Brno
2014
 Christopher, Martin
 “The Agile Supply Chain : Competing in Volatile Markets”, Industrial
Marketing Management, Vol 29., No. 1., 2000, pp. 37-44
 Yang, C
 “Hierarchical Summarization of Large Documents”, Drexel University
 Scheffer, Marten
 Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems, Nature, 2001
37

38. 4. Kick-off the development of a
guide for Agile Governance
38

39. brian.wernham@gmail.com
Blog: brianwernham.wordpress.com
@BrianUkulele
http://bit.ly/About-Brian
Thanks for listening!
39
http://bit.ly/special-offer-CWBW50
Delegates’
50%
discount`

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