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Covid 19: Understanding the context using systems thinking techniques webinar, 22 October 2020


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Covid 19: Understanding the context using systems thinking techniques webinar
Thursday 22 October 2020

presented by
David Cole, Frank Curtolo, Michael Emes, Dania Issa, Phil Knights, Cesar Rendora, Brian Slaughter and Andrew Wright

The link to the write up page and resources of this webinar:

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Covid 19: Understanding the context using systems thinking techniques webinar, 22 October 2020

  1. 1. Understanding the Covid-19 pandemic context using systems thinking techniques APM working group from ST SIG • David Cole • Andrew Wright • Phil Knights • Cesar Rendora • Brian Slaughter • Frank Curtolo • Michael Emes Guest : Dania Issa
  2. 2. The People David Cole - founder member and former APM Co-chair of the APM Systems Thinking SIG Andrew Wright – founder member and APM Co-Chair of the APM Systems Thinking SIG Cesar Rendora - Director of Operations at Jacobs Brian Slaughter – Project and Programme Professional & full MAPM member Frank Curtolo – Principal Consultant at MI-GSO | PCUBED Michael Emes, Director UCL Centre for Systems Engineering Dania Issa, Lecturer, University of Westminster
  3. 3. What did we do and why did we do it?
  4. 4. VARIABLE A VARIABLE B What is a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)?
  5. 5. What is a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)?
  6. 6. What is a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)?
  7. 7. CLDs in Project Management © Axelos Management of Risk, 2010
  8. 8. CLDs in Project Risk Management + Perception of threat Panic buying/stockpiling Levels of stock - - R Level of supermarket “rationing” - + B
  9. 9. CLDs in Project Risk Management - + Spread of Social media unverified stories Official media coverage + + RNumber of “likes” and “shares” Medical authorities Intervention via posts/stories on social media Search engines intervention Level of trusted Information on social media + + + B
  10. 10. Systems Thinking – When to use It
  11. 11. Our approach to creating the Covid-19 CLD
  12. 12. Covid-19 Infection Covid-19 Healthcare Impact Covid-19 Countermeasures Covid-19 Economic Impact Environmental Impact Potential Economic Changes Covid-19 Media Reporting
  13. 13. Covid-19 Infection topic detail
  14. 14. Covid-19 Countermeasures topic detail
  15. 15. Covid-19 Healthcare Impact topic detail
  16. 16. Covid-19 Economic Impact topic detail
  17. 17. Covid-19 Media Reporting topic detail
  18. 18. Using the CLD: Outgoing Links from Infection SpreadOutgoing links from Infection Spread
  19. 19. Using the CLD: Incoming Links to HMG Lock-Down PolicyIncoming links to HMG Lockdown Policy
  20. 20. Using the CLD: Systems Archetypes Peter Senge., Wind and Fly LTD, 2020., accessed October 17, 2020.
  21. 21. 'Shifting the Burden' Systems Archetype
  22. 22. 'Shifting the Burden' Systems Archetype
  23. 23. 'Tragedy of the Commons' Systems Archetype
  24. 24. 'Tragedy of the Commons' Systems Archetype
  25. 25. Conclusions: Using Causal Loop Diagrams ▪ Developing Causal Loop Diagrams encourages collaborative working and is an efficient way to get people involved regardless of their experience with CLDs. ▪ Shows how action on a variable could impact other directly or indirectly linked variables (cause/ effect relationships). ▪ Quick and easy to do; needed explanation but didn't need training. ▪ Needs discipline to keep looking at the big picture and not constrain the scope. ▪ Gives a big picture view of issues/ inter-relationships and reveals emergent patterns. ▪ Identifies subject areas (variables) that might otherwise be overlooked or missed. ▪ Once identified, topics of interest can then be studied separately as required.
  26. 26. Conclusions: Using Systems Thinking • Using systems thinking can help better understand problems in terms of their complexity of the relationships their components and how these impact one another. • By better understanding the causes and effects of a problem one can devise more effective and efficient solutions to deal with it. • One tool, the CLD, we’ve shown to be quick and easy to use while giving valuable insights. • The CLD is a qualitative model, though it could be used as the basis from which to develop a quantitative model (simulation) to investigate the dynamics of the situation. • CLD application to Risk Management helps prepare better mitigations and contingencies based on a deeper understanding of the variables at play and their dynamics.
  27. 27. Conclusions: P3M insights post-COVID-19 1. High levels of interconnectedness mean you must keep a view of the big picture for your projects 2. Look for patterns that can be addressed. 3. Review the planned benefits of your projects and how they will be realised in the 'new normal’ 4. We’re now in Complex (not very-Complicated) times: think 'uncertainty management'. 5. P3Ms need to be system thinkers.
  28. 28. Thanks for your interest Questions & Answers APM Systems Thinking SIG