Xtreme Continuous Change - Antifragility Strategies

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Xtreme Continuous Change - Antifragility Strategies
from fragility --> agility
what if extreme continuous change is the new ‘stable state’

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Xtreme Continuous Change - Antifragility Strategies

  1. 1. finding antifragility strategies from fragility --> agility what if xtreme continuous change is the new ‘stable state’ WARNING: work-in-progress gar@inspiringarchitects.com @aspiringarc
  2. 2. Your job (later) today? 1.  Find me 2.  Share a story 3. Challenge my hypothesis open innovation in action
  3. 3. My hypothesis
  4. 4. (what if we are wrong?)
  5. 5. it was a sunny spring morning in Berlin
  6. 6. & 250 other likeminds
  7. 7. Rita Gunther McGrath, Professor Columbia Business School
  8. 8. Rita made me question my assumptions? What if…. 1.Industry isn’t stable & understandable 2. Advantages aren’t sustainable 3. Stability isn’t the stable state
  9. 9. What if the new normal is about TRANSIENT COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE 1.  2.  3.  We surf short-lived waves (get in & get out) We compete in arenas (arena = market + segment + offer + location) We accept that change is the stable state (design for change)
  10. 10. If this was news to business people Hmm!!
  11. 11. then IT must be in the dark
  12. 12. “denial is the most predictable of all human emotions”
  13. 13. I started to question the wisdom of some our actions Agenda
  14. 14. (but before we go there)
  15. 15. Steve Blank, UC Berkeley Business School
  16. 16. Eric Ries, Entrepreneur in Residence Harvard Business School
  17. 17. Steve & Eric made me question the way we approach change 1. Use scientific methods & measures 2. Use structured change processes Lean Change Canvas – leanchange.org 3. Move from rationalism -> to incrementalism
  18. 18. Brian Solis Altimeter Group
  19. 19. Brian tells us that our customers are mutating
  20. 20. Brian also says experience is everything Zero Moment Of Truth Ultimate Moment Of Truth
  21. 21. (what else is happening)
  22. 22. let’ meet the 4 horsemen of the s digital apocalypse
  23. 23. and finally disruptors fragile debt-ridden complex rigid
  24. 24. Oh wait I forgot the march of the milennials 47% by 2020
  25. 25. a workforce of digital problem solvers *MYOA
  26. 26. a question today… What capabilities are essential for? (xcc) Are their patterns? Are their anti-patterns?
  27. 27. the stability dilemma
  28. 28. In a turf war, someone always loses
  29. 29. dynamic competition is ‘the new normal’ Industry B Industry A
  30. 30. I started to question the wisdom of some our actions Agenda
  31. 31. in the end it’s all about capability
  32. 32. what is an antifragility architecture? “wind extinguishes a candle & energizes fire” OR V(X, fΛ, K,s`) http://arxiv.org/pdf/1208.1189.pdf
  33. 33. in the end your architecture either enables or constrains your business model
  34. 34. so what’s stopping you?
  35. 35. well…you need to break out of the vicious merry-go-round BAR SRP PPP SD FF TIM PM EAM
  36. 36. My hypothesis cont.
  37. 37. 3 Takeaways 1.  Change is the new stable state 2.  Build people; provide tools 3.  Assumptions aren’t knowledge
  38. 38. “If you want to teach people a new way of thinking, don't bother trying to teach them. Instead, give them a tool, the use of which will lead to new ways of thinking.” ― Richard Buckminster Fuller
  39. 39. “Change is the law of life; those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.” JFK http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/j/john_f_kennedy.html#cWKIWigxSBrHvgq1.99
  40. 40. gar@inspiringarchitects.com @aspiringarc http:/ /ie.linkedin.com/in/garmaccriosta www.iasa.ie | www.ivi.ie | www.ics.ie
  41. 41. Research worlds are colliding

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