1. 1
Generis – 2015 American Manufacturing Summit
Bruce Gladwin, ProModel Corporation
bgladwin@promodel.com
2. 2
Introductions: Who, What & Why
Evolution of (Lean) Process Analytics
Simulation-based “Living VSMs”
◦ Understanding the “Physics of the Process”
The Virtual Kaizen: your insurance policy
Introducing Modeling & Sustaining the Gain
3. 3
Bruce Gladwin – fellow pilgrim on the Lean journey
28 years in process analysis and improvement
◦ Hughes Aircraft – Industrial Engineer Role
◦ GE Global Research – Internal PI Consultant
◦ GE Power Systems – Six Sigma Black Belt
ProModel Corporation – Orem, Utah
◦ Simulation Trainer, Consultant & Project Manager
◦ Product Manager, Process Simulation Tool
◦ Currently VP, Modeling Services Team
4. 4
What?
◦ How modeling tools, specifically discrete-event simulation,
can improve & accelerate your Lean journey
Why?
◦ “The times they are a changin” – Bob Dylan
◦ Early modeling tools were not for “the faint of heart”
◦ Advances in simulation technology have put this valuable
technology within reach of more and more Lean practitioners
Many tools today are “fill in the blank”, no programming required!
12. 12
Value Stream Map
◦ Static model that describes
the states of current and/or
future processes
◦ Tells what is happening in the
process now and what the
process could be later
◦ Typically reports on lead time
and value added time
◦ Requires general information
regarding material arrivals,
operation times, labor and
equipment availability.
e.g. average time = 15 sec
Process Simulation
◦ Dynamic model that predicts the
behavior of current and/or future
processes
◦ Tells why a process behaves the
way it does or how it could behave
in the future
◦ Reports on throughput, inventory,
lead times, VA, NVA and resource
utilization
◦ Requires specific information about
material arrivals, batch constraints,
operation times, labor and
equipment uptime & availability,
transportation methods and times,
and any other capacity constraints.
◦ e.g. Time = T(5,10,25) sec
19. 19
Trying to optimize a
complex mfg system
is like trying to solve
the Rubic’s cube.
Simulation can
help understand
the trade-offs!!
Maximize Throughput
Reduce Cycle Time
Reduce Inventory
Minimize CapEx
Interdependencies
20. 20
Exercise 1
…
from
Process
Simulator
Basics
Training
Course
Activity
Worker
Work Unit
(Exit)
5 minute
Process Time
100% Resource
Availability
Deterministic
Example
Activity 2
Worker 2
Work Unit 2
(Exit)
U(5,1) minute
Process Time
100% Resource
Availability
Stochastic
Example
Activity 3
Worker 3
Work Unit 3
(Exit)
U(4,1) minute
Process Time
80% Resource
Availability
Stochastic
Example with
Uncertainty
Activity 4
Worker 4
Work Unit 4
(Exit)
U(4,1) minute
Process Time
80% Resource
Availability
Assembly Opn
Stochastic
Example with
Uncertainty and
Interdependency
Activity 4A
Worker 4A
Work Unit 4A
BA
C D
Arrival Rate = 1 unit every 5 minutes
Identical for every arrival stream
No variation
23. 23
A Virtual Kaizen is simply using simulation first to
better understand the “Physics of the Process”…
Then design the improved process, to produce the
desired outputs, within expect levels of variation…
All in a risk free environment
◦ No interruptions to the existing line
◦ No need to make physical rearrangements (yet)
◦ Ability to ask “What if…?”
24. 24
Founded in 1975 by former Westinghouse engineers
Ownership: privately held by founders
Location: Pittsburgh area
Employees: 150 total (50 salary, 100 hourly)
Products:
◦ Mechanical Switches for Electric Utility Grids
◦ Automatic Distribution Motor Operators (ADMO)
Allows remote control of switches by utility personnel
26. 26
Privately held, debt-free, profitable business with little
competition from low cost countries (for now).
Capacity constrained. The market would buy every
additional unit that they could produce.
Each additional unit sold would contribute $5k-$10k
to their bottom line.
Want to maximize 1st shift capacity before adding
additional 2nd shift operations.
Considering 30,000 sf expansion to their existing
plant, at a cost of about $1M.
31. 31
Simulation proved to be an accurate tool for modeling
the current state Vertical Switch Assembly process
A Future-State model using Lean Production concepts
proved to be far more efficient
◦ 20% improvement in product throughput!
◦ 67% reduction in average unit cycle time!
◦ 50% reduction in floor space requirements!
◦ Elimination of need for 2nd shift!
32. 32
Identify the best opportunities
◦ Good ROI potential
Every additional unit produced can be sold
◦ (Fairly) Low Risk
Use a Sensei with years of modeling experience
Involve all stakeholders, especially line operators
whenever possible
Be patient and allow your team time to develop
modeling skillset. Make modeling a part of every
major process change.
33. 33
Update the models regularly so they are always
available to predict the future
◦ More & better data results in better decisions
Link to real-time data sources
◦ More & better data results in more accurate results
◦ Strategic Analysis becomes Tactical Analysis
34. 34
Generis – 2015 American Manufacturing Summit
Bruce Gladwin, ProModel Corporation
bgladwin@promodel.com