A survey of 1,000 Irish people about their views on the economy and intentions for spending, saving and borrowing.

1. The Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
October Index Results
The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator
August 2011 Results
© Amárach Research 2009

2. 2
The Emotional Recovery
• We have been reporting our monthly
Recovery Indicator since April 2009.
• We set out two years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery
alongside our ‘economic progress’.
• Our tracking research has shown the
remarkable emotional strength of the Irish
people, who have consistently reported
‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most
frequently experienced emotions.
• But we are still in recession – and the path to
recovery still lies some way ahead.
• We will help you along that path.

3. 3
Timing Recovery
• All recessions end in recovery –
so will this one.
Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs • The biggest forecasting challenge is timing:
when do we know the recession is over and
recovery has started?
• Amárach Research has developed the
Recovery Indicator to help us track the
economic cycle more closely.
• This report summarises the AIB-Amárach
Recovery Indicator results from April 2009
(when it began) to August 2011.
• The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 8th-15th August 2011 inclusive.

4. 4
A Matter of Measurement
• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and
150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us
which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’
• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle

5. 5
A Matter of Measurement
• August 2011 saw a negative turn in Irish views about the current stage
of the country’s economic cycle:
July’11 0% Aug’11 0%
July’11 3% Aug’11 1%
July‘11 47% Aug‘11 52% July’11 22% Aug’11 18%
July’11 28% Aug’11 29%

6. 6
AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator
• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges from 0 to 100
(0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).
• In August 2011, the Recovery Indicator fell back to 17.3 – returning to the level at the start of the year.
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Apr Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug
'09 '10 '11

7. 7
Recovery Outlook 1
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time:
% agree strongly/slightly
52% 42%
41%43% 39%
48%
44% 42%
41% 43%46% 41% 42% 43% 42%42% 28%
34% 31% 23%26%24%25%24% 23%26%
24%
26% 18%
May
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
July
Jun
Sept
Feb
Sept
Feb
Oct
Mar
Oct
Mar
Apr '09
Apr '10
Apr '11
Jan
Jan
Nov
Nov
June
June
Aug
Aug
Aug
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation:
% agree strongly/slightly
61% 54%55%
65% 55% 51% 53%
57% 59% 58% 60% 62% 48%44%48%47% 47%48%
48%
51% 55%54%52% 53% 50% 46% 41%
44% 33%
May
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
July
Jun
Sept
Feb
Sept
Feb
Oct
Mar
Oct
Mar
Apr '09
Apr '10
Apr '11
Nov
Nov
June
June
Aug
Aug
Aug
Jan
Jan

8. 8
Recovery Outlook 2
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession:
% agree strongly/slightly
45%45%50% 47% 41%41% 39%37%36%39%40%34%39%
51% 47%
48% 48% 48%48%46% 47% 43%47% 45% 46% 32%34% 34%
45%
May
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
July
Sept
Sept
Jun
Feb
Feb
Oct
Mar
Oct
Mar
Apr '09
Apr '10
Apr '11
Nov
Nov
June
June
Aug
Aug
Aug
Jan
Jan
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it
is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
62% 61%60% 61% 60% 56% 56%55%53% 55% 55% 53%
59% 49%45%47%48%50%44%49%
46%
52% 54% 52% 45%45%
53% 51% 50%
May
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
July
Sept
Sept
Jun
Feb
Feb
Apr'10
Oct
Mar
Oct
Mar
Apr '09
Apr '11
Nov
Nov
June
June
Aug
Aug
Aug
Jan
Jan

9. 9
Recovery Outlook 3
The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession
will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly
43% 43% 42% 46% 30% 35% 36% 25%
35% 40%
39% 33% 28% 21% 17% 25% 20% 16%
27% 11%
18% 20%
14%
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
Oct '09
Sept
Feb
Feb
Mar
Oct
Mar
Apr '10
Apr '11
Nov
Nov
June
June
Aug
Aug
Jan
Jan
I am less worried about losing my job than I was before:
% agree strongly/slightly
22% 21% 22% 21% 18% 23% 20% 21% 21% 18% 18% 17% 21% 17% 19%16%
22% 20% 15% 17%
20% 17%
13%
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
Oct '09
Sept
Feb
Feb
Apr'10
Mar
Oct
Mar
Apr '11
Nov
Nov
June
June
Aug
Aug
Jan
Jan

10. 10
Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey
Percent of adults who agree with each statement: August 2009*, 2010, 2011 & July 2011
I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more
spending money than I than before because of
Impact on: was a few months ago the recession
•Spending
•Saving 33%
26% 26% 25%
•Debt 16% 19% 17% 14%
•Borrowing
Aug'09 Aug'10 Jul'11 Aug'11 Aug'09 Aug'10 Jul'11 Aug'11
Paying off debts is my Now is a good time to
main financial priority I would be happy to buy a house for those
borrow from a bank if I who want to
62% 59% need to
57% 62% 62% 58%
31% 26% 23%
Aug'10 Jul'11 Aug'11 Aug'10 Jul'11 Aug'11 Aug'10 Jul'11 Aug'11
* NB: debt & borrowing questions not asked in 2009

11. 11
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to August 2011
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
10%
0%
Oct
Oct
Feb
Feb
Jun
Nov
Jan
July
Nov
Jan
July
Dec
Dec
June
June
Apr '09
Aug
Apr '10
Aug
Apr '11
Aug
Sept
Sept
Jul
May
Mar
Mar
May
May

12. 12
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to August 2011
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
5%
0%
Feb
Feb
Jun
Oct
Jan
Oct
Jan
Sept
Sept
May
May
May
July
July
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
Aug
Aug
Aug
Mar
Mar
Apr '11
Jul
Apr '09
Apr '10
June
June

13. 13
Cloudy Outlook
• The downturn in our Recovery Indicator in August
is driven by a number of factors – not least the
uncertainty arising from this month’s international
economic and political events.
• Irish consumers continue to be emotionally
resilient, but economically thrifty.
• They continue to be more negative (and volatile)
about the wider economy than their own personal
situation.
• The outlook for consumer spending is therefore
finely balanced between more negative macro
and more positive micro influences.
• Stay tuned to future issues of the AIB-Amárach
Recovery Indicator to find out what happens...

14. 14
Amárach Contact Details
Gerard O’Neill
Chairman
Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24
telephone: (01) 410 5200
email: gerard.oneill@amarach.com
website: www.amarach.com
blog: www.amarach.com/blog
twitter: www.twitter.com/amarachresearch