AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator August 2011
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AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator August 2011

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A survey of 1,000 Irish people about their views on the economy and intentions for spending, saving and borrowing.

A survey of 1,000 Irish people about their views on the economy and intentions for spending, saving and borrowing.

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  • 1. The Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing October Index Results The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator August 2011 Results © Amárach Research 2009
  • 2. 2The Emotional Recovery • We have been reporting our monthly Recovery Indicator since April 2009. • We set out two years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. • Our tracking research has shown the remarkable emotional strength of the Irish people, who have consistently reported ‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most frequently experienced emotions. • But we are still in recession – and the path to recovery still lies some way ahead. • We will help you along that path.
  • 3. 3 Timing Recovery • All recessions end in recovery – so will this one.Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs • The biggest forecasting challenge is timing: when do we know the recession is over and recovery has started? • Amárach Research has developed the Recovery Indicator to help us track the economic cycle more closely. • This report summarises the AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator results from April 2009 (when it began) to August 2011. • The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 8th-15th August 2011 inclusive.
  • 4. 4 A Matter of Measurement• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and 150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle
  • 5. 5 A Matter of Measurement• August 2011 saw a negative turn in Irish views about the current stage of the country’s economic cycle: July’11 0% Aug’11 0% July’11 3% Aug’11 1%July‘11 47% Aug‘11 52% July’11 22% Aug’11 18% July’11 28% Aug’11 29%
  • 6. 6 AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).• In August 2011, the Recovery Indicator fell back to 17.3 – returning to the level at the start of the year. 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Apr Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug 09 10 11
  • 7. 7 Recovery Outlook 1 Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly 52% 42% 41%43% 39% 48% 44% 42% 41% 43%46% 41% 42% 43% 42%42% 28% 34% 31% 23%26%24%25%24% 23%26% 24% 26% 18% May May May Dec Dec July July July Jun Sept Feb Sept Feb Oct Mar Oct Mar Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Jan Jan Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Aug I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly 61% 54%55% 65% 55% 51% 53%57% 59% 58% 60% 62% 48%44%48%47% 47%48% 48% 51% 55%54%52% 53% 50% 46% 41% 44% 33% May May May Dec Dec July July July Jun Sept Feb Sept Feb Oct Mar Oct Mar Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Aug Jan Jan
  • 8. 8 Recovery Outlook 2 I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly 45%45%50% 47% 41%41% 39%37%36%39%40%34%39% 51% 47% 48% 48% 48%48%46% 47% 43%47% 45% 46% 32%34% 34% 45% May May May Dec Dec July July July Sept Sept Jun Feb Feb Oct Mar Oct Mar Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Aug Jan Jan Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly 62% 61%60% 61% 60% 56% 56%55%53% 55% 55% 53%59% 49%45%47%48%50%44%49% 46% 52% 54% 52% 45%45% 53% 51% 50% May May May Dec Dec July July July Sept Sept Jun Feb Feb Apr10 Oct Mar Oct Mar Apr 09 Apr 11 Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Aug Jan Jan
  • 9. 9 Recovery Outlook 3 The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly 43% 43% 42% 46% 30% 35% 36% 25% 35% 40% 39% 33% 28% 21% 17% 25% 20% 16% 27% 11% 18% 20% 14% May May Dec Dec July July Oct 09 Sept Feb Feb Mar Oct Mar Apr 10 Apr 11 Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Jan Jan I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly 22% 21% 22% 21% 18% 23% 20% 21% 21% 18% 18% 17% 21% 17% 19%16%22% 20% 15% 17% 20% 17% 13% May May Dec Dec July July Oct 09 Sept Feb Feb Apr10 Mar Oct Mar Apr 11 Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Jan Jan
  • 10. 10Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey Percent of adults who agree with each statement: August 2009*, 2010, 2011 & July 2011 I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more spending money than I than before because of Impact on: was a few months ago the recession •Spending •Saving 33% 26% 26% 25% •Debt 16% 19% 17% 14% •Borrowing Aug09 Aug10 Jul11 Aug11 Aug09 Aug10 Jul11 Aug11 Paying off debts is my Now is a good time to main financial priority I would be happy to buy a house for those borrow from a bank if I who want to 62% 59% need to 57% 62% 62% 58% 31% 26% 23%Aug10 Jul11 Aug11 Aug10 Jul11 Aug11 Aug10 Jul11 Aug11 * NB: debt & borrowing questions not asked in 2009
  • 11. 11 The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? April 2009 to August 201170%60%50%40%30%20% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry10%0% Oct Oct Feb Feb Jun Nov Jan July Nov Jan July Dec Dec June June Apr 09 Aug Apr 10 Aug Apr 11 Aug Sept Sept Jul May Mar Mar May May
  • 12. 12 The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? April 2009 to August 201140%35%30%25%20%15%10% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger5%0% Feb Feb Jun Oct Jan Oct Jan Sept Sept May May May July July Nov Dec Nov Dec Aug Aug Aug Mar Mar Apr 11 Jul Apr 09 Apr 10 June June
  • 13. 13Cloudy Outlook • The downturn in our Recovery Indicator in August is driven by a number of factors – not least the uncertainty arising from this month’s international economic and political events. • Irish consumers continue to be emotionally resilient, but economically thrifty. • They continue to be more negative (and volatile) about the wider economy than their own personal situation. • The outlook for consumer spending is therefore finely balanced between more negative macro and more positive micro influences. • Stay tuned to future issues of the AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator to find out what happens...
  • 14. 14 Amárach Contact Details Gerard O’Neill Chairman Amárach Research 11 Kingswood Business Centre Citywest Business Campus Dublin 24 telephone: (01) 410 5200 email: gerard.oneill@amarach.com website: www.amarach.com blog: www.amarach.com/blogtwitter: www.twitter.com/amarachresearch