A survey of 1,000 Irish consumers about their views on the economy, their personal circumstances, and their emotional wellbeing.

1. The Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
October Index Results
The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator
June 2011 Results
© Amárach Research 2009

2. 2
The Emotional Recovery
• We have been reporting our monthly
Recovery Indicator since April 2009.
• We set out two years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery
alongside our ‘economic progress’.
• Our tracking research has shown the
remarkable emotional strength of the Irish
people, who have consistently reported
‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most
frequently experienced emotions.
• But we are still in recession – and the path to
recovery still lies some way ahead.
• We will help you along that path.

3. 3
Timing Recovery
• All recessions end in recovery –
so will this one.
Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs • The biggest forecasting challenge is timing:
when do we know the recession is over and
recovery has started?
• Amárach Research has developed the
Recovery Indicator to help us track the
economic cycle more closely.
• This report summarises the AIB-Amárach
Recovery Indicator results from April 2009
(when it began) to June 2011.
• The fieldwork was conducted during the period
14th-21st June 2011 inclusive.

4. 4
A Matter of Measurement
• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and
150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us
which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’
• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle

5. 5
A Matter of Measurement
• June 2011 saw a reduction in the percentage seeing signs of improvement:
May’11 1% June’11 0%
May’11 2% June’11 2%
May‘11 40% June‘11 46% May’11 24% June’11 24%
May’11 33% June’11 28%

6. 6
AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator
• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges from 0 to 100
(0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).
• In June 2011, the Indicator weakened slightly when compared with the previous month.
30
27.1 26
25 25.3 24
22.7
23.5 23.8
23.8 22.1
20 19.6 20.4
18.4 17.8
18.3 19.2 19.2
17.8 18
17.3 18.2
17 16.3
15 15
12
10
8.3
7.3
5
0
Apr Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
'09 '10 '11

7. 7
Recovery Outlook 1
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time:
% agree strongly/slightly
52% 42%
41%43% 39%
48% 41% 42%43% 42%42%
44% 42% 46%
34%
41% 43% 31% 23%26%24%25%24%28%
23%
26%18%
May
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
Jun
Sept
Feb
Sept
Feb
Oct
Mar
Oct
Mar
Apr '09
Apr '10
Apr '11
Jan
Jan
Nov
Nov
June
June
Aug
Aug
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation:
% agree strongly/slightly
61% 54%55%
65% 55%
57% 59% 58% 60% 62% 51% 48%44%48%47%53%
47%
51% 52% 53%
55%54% 50% 46% 44% 33%41%
May
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
Jun
Sept
Feb
Sept
Feb
Oct
Mar
Oct
Mar
Apr '09
Apr '10
Apr '11
Nov
Nov
June
June
Aug
Aug
Jan
Jan

8. 8
Recovery Outlook 2
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession:
% agree strongly/slightly
45%45%50% 47% 41%41% 40%
51% 47% 48%
48%48% 48% 46% 47% 43%47% 45%45% 46% 32%34%39%37%36%39% 34%
May
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
Sept
Sept
Jun
Feb
Feb
Oct
Mar
Oct
Mar
Apr '09
Apr '10
Apr '11
Nov
Nov
June
June
Aug
Aug
Jan
Jan
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it
is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
62% 61%60%61%60% 56% 53% 55%
56%55% 55% 53%
50%
59% 52% 53%51% 50% 54% 52% 45%45%49%45%47%48% 44%
May
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
Sept
Sept
Jun
Feb
Feb
Apr'10
Oct
Mar
Oct
Mar
Apr '09
Apr '11
Nov
Nov
June
June
Aug
Aug
Jan
Jan

9. 9
Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey
Percent of adults who agree with each statement: June 2009*, 2010, 2011 & May 2011
I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more
spending money than I than before because of
Impact on: was a few months ago the recession
•Spending
•Saving 34%
24% 26% 25%
•Debt 16% 22% 17% 14%
•Borrowing
Jun'09 Jun'10 May'11 Jun'11 Jun'09 Jun'10 May'11 Jun'11
Paying off debts is my Now is a good time to
main financial priority I would be happy to buy a house for those
borrow from a bank if I who want to
61% 61% 59% need to 68% 62% 60%
30% 26% 23%
Jun'10 May'11 Jun'11 Jun'10 May'11 Jun'11 Jun'10 May'11 Jun'11
* NB: debt & borrowing questions not asked in 2009

10. 10
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to June 2011
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
10%
0%
Oct
Oct
Feb
Feb
Jun
Nov
Jan
July
Nov
Jan
Dec
Dec
June
June
Apr '09
Aug
Apr '10
Aug
Apr '11
Sept
Sept
Jul
May
Mar
Mar
May
May

11. 11
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to June 2011
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
5%
0%
Feb
Feb
Jun
Oct
Jan
Oct
Jan
Sept
Sept
May
May
May
July
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
Aug
Aug
Mar
Mar
Apr '11
Jul
Apr '09
Apr '10
June
June

12. 12
The Road Ahead
• The Irish people continue to show strong
emotional fortitude in our fourth year of recession.
• Everyone has been touched directly or indirectly
by the recession at this stage – fewer people than
ever feel the recession is affecting others more
than themselves.
• The predominant mood is one of ‘resilient
optimism’: one that recognises the difficulties of
the present in the expectation of a better future.
• The recession will end in recovery like all others
before it: but we’re not there yet.
• Stay tuned to future issues of the AIB-Amárach
Recovery Indicator as your guide to the road
ahead ...

13. 13
Amárach Contact Details
Gerard O’Neill
Chairman
Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24
telephone: (01) 410 5200
email: gerard.oneill@amarach.com
website: www.amarach.com
blog: www.amarach.com/blog
twitter: www.twitter.com/amarachresearch