This document summarizes the results of the March 2010 AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator survey. The survey asks 1,000 Irish adults monthly to assess the economic situation. In March 2010, 36% felt the economy was bad but stable/improving, up from 1% in April 2009. The Recovery Indicator rose to 27.1 in March from 22.7 in February, showing gradual growth. Respondents were more optimistic that the recession's worst would pass in 12 months and that now is a good time to buy a house. Worry and stress declined slightly from February levels while enjoyment and happiness rose slightly.

1. The Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
October Index Results
The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator
March 2010 Results
© Amárach Research 2009

2. 2
Timing Recovery
Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs
• All recessions end in recovery – so will
this one
• The biggest forecasting challenge is
timing: when do we know the recession is
over and recovery has started?
• Amárach Research has developed the
Recovery Indicator to help us track the
economic cycle more closely
• This report summarises the Recovery
Indicator results for April 2009 (when it
began) to March 2010
• The fieldwork was conducted on 8th to
14th March 2010

3. 3
A Matter of Measurement
• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and
150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us
which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’
• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle

4. 4
A Matter of Measurement
• The general sense in March remains very consistent with February, albeit with a marginal
increase in the recovery index. Similarly to February; when it comes to the economy, there is
still a divide between it is ‘bad but stable or improving’ and it is ‘bad and getting worse’.
April’09 0% March’10 0%
April’09 1% March’10 2%
April’09 77% March’10 36% April’09 8% March’10 27%
April’09 14% March’10 34%

5. Recovery Indicator
• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which
ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak)
• The Recovery Indicator experienced its strongest monthly surge in January 2010,
more gradual growths are evident over the February and March periods.
30
27.1
25
22.7 23.5
20 19.6
17.8 18.4 17.8 18.3
16.3 17
15 15
10
8.3
5
0
Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar

6. 6
Recovery Outlook 1
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time:
% agree strongly/slightly
52%
48% 41% 43% 41% 42%
41% 44% 42% 43% 46%
34%
Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation:
% agree strongly/slightly
65% 58% 55% 61% 55% 54%
57% 59% 60% 62% 51% 51%
Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar

7. 7
Recovery Outlook 2
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the
recession: % agree strongly/slightly
45% 45% 50% 47% 43%
48% 48% 51% 47% 48% 48% 46%
Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it
is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
56% 55% 53%
59% 62% 61% 60% 61% 60% 56% 55%
52%
Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar

8. 8
Other Sentiment Indicators from ARI Survey
• Percent of adults who agree with each statement: February 2010 and March 2010
I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more
News from other than before because of
countries suggests the spending money than I
was a few months ago the recession
recession will end soon
35% 40%
26% 25%
18% 18%
February March February March February March
I would be happy to Paying off debts is my Now is a good time to
borrow from a bank if I main financial priority buy a house for those
need to who want to
62% 61%
62% 64%
29% 30%
February March February March February March

9. 9
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feeling a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to March 2010
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
0%
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
'09 '10

10. 10
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feeling a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to March 2010
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
0%
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
'09 '10

11. 11
AIB Contact Details Amárach Contact Details
Ronan Sheridan Gerard O’Neill - Chairman
Group Press Officer Amárach Research
AIB 11 Kingswood Business Centre
Bankcentre Citywest Business Campus
Ballsbridge Dublin 24
Dublin 4
T. (01) 410 5200
T. (01) 641 4651 E. gerard.oneill@amarach.com
M. 086 388 0898 W. www.amarach.com
B. amarachresearch.blogspot.com