A monthly survey of Irish sentiment in relation to the economy, their finances and their general wellbeing.

1. The Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
October Index Results
The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator
October 2010 Results
© Amárach Research 2009

2. 2
Timing Recovery
Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs
• All recessions end in recovery – so will this one
• The biggest forecasting challenge is timing:
when do we know the recession is over and
recovery has started?
• Amárach Research has developed the
Recovery Indicator to help us track the
economic cycle more closely
• This report summarises the Recovery
Indicator results for April 2009 (when it began)
to October 2010
• The fieldwork was conducted on 11th to 20th
October 2010

3. 3
A Matter of Measurement
• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and
150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us
which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’
• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle

4. 4
A Matter of Measurement
• October shows a significant pull back in confidence versus months earlier in the year,
although there is an improvement since April 2009, the proportion now believing the
economic situation in Ireland is getting worse is over one in two.
April’09 0% October’10
1%
April’09 1% October’10
2%
April’09 77% October‘10 April’09 8% October’10
56% 18%
April’09 14% October’10
23%

5. 5
AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator
• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges
from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).
• Any build in positivity has been eroded with the scoring now going back to Sept 2009.
30
27.1 26
25 25.3 24
22.7 23.8
23.5 23.8
20 19.6 19.2
17.8 18.4 17.8 18.3
17 16.3
15 15
10
8.3
5
0
Apr Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct
'09 '10 '10

6. 6
Recovery Outlook 1
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time:
% agree strongly/slightly
52% 42%
48% 41% 43% 39%
41% 44% 42% 43% 46% 41% 42% 43% 42% 42%
34% 31%
26%
Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct
'09 '10
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation:
% agree strongly/slightly
61% 54% 55%
65% 55%
57% 59% 58% 60% 62% 51%
51% 55% 54% 52% 53% 50% 46% 44%
Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct
'09 '10

7. 7
Recovery Outlook 2
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the
recession: % agree strongly/slightly
45% 45% 50% 47%
41%41%
48% 48% 51% 47% 48% 48% 46% 47% 43% 47% 45% 45% 46%
Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct
'09 '10
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than
it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
62% 61% 60% 61% 60% 56% 56% 55% 53% 55% 55% 53%
59% 52%
52% 53% 51% 50% 54%
Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct
'09 '10

8. 8
Financial Sentiment Indicators from and OctARI Survey
Percent of adults who agree with each statement: Oct 2009
the 2010
I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more
spending money than I than before because of
Impact on: was a few months ago the recession
•Spending
•Saving 32%
•Debt 16% 15%
25%
•Borrowing
Oct '09 Oct ' 10 Oct '09 Oct '10
# Paying off debts is my # Now is a good time to
main financial priority # I would be happy to buy a house* for those
borrow from a bank if I who want to
61% 59% need to
62% 63%
33% 27%
Oct'09 Oct '10 Oct '09 Oct '10 Oct '09 Oct '10
* ‘a new house’ in 2009
# Question first asked in October 2009

9. 9
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to October 2010
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
10%
0%
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct
'09 '10 '10

10. 10
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to October 2010
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
5%
0%
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct
'09 '10 '10

11. 11
Amárach Contact Details
Gerard O’Neill
Chairman
Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24
T. (01) 410 5200
E. gerard.oneill@amarach.com
W. www.amarach.com
B. www.amarach.com/blog