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Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing September 2012Economic Recovery Index © Amárach Research1

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The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out three years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. Our tracking research has shown the remarkable emotional strength of the Irish people, who have consistently reported ‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most frequently experienced emotions. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to September 2012. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 16th to 22nd September 2012 inclusive.Economic Recovery Index 2

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A Matter of Measurement Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below) We have seen a fall back in the economic outlook since July: Aug’12: 0% Sept’12: 1% Aug’12: 2% Sept’12: 2% Aug’12: 42% Sept’12: 46% Aug’12: 25% Sept’12: 23% Aug’12: 31% Sept’12: 28%Economic Recovery Index 3

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The Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). The ERI has weakened since July though is higher than September last year: 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Apr 09 July Sept Nov Jan Mar May July Sept Nov Jan Mar May July Sept Nov Jan 12 Mar May July Sept Source: Amárach Research, September 2012Economic Recovery Index 4

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Recovery Outlook 1 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly 52% 42% 41%43% 39% 48% 42% 44% 42% 46% 41% 43% 41% 42%43% 42% 28% 30%31% 26%24%25%24% 26%24%26%26% 26% 25%25%27% 24% 27% 34% 31% 23% 23% 23%22%21% 26%18% Aug Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Nov Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Apr12 Sept Sept Sept Sept Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Jun Feb June Feb June Feb June July July July July Jan Jan Jan May Mar May Mar May Mar May I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly 54%55% 61% 65% 55% 51% 53% 51% 57% 59% 58% 60% 62% 48%44%48%47% 47%48%48%47%49% 45%44% 50% 47% 47% 45% 46% 51% 55% 52% 53% 50% 46% 54% 41% 42%39% 43% 44%33% Aug Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Nov Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Sept Sept Sept Apr12 Sept June June June Jun Feb Feb Feb July July July July May May May May Mar Mar Mar Jan Jan Jan Source: Amárach Research, September 2012Economic Recovery Index 5

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Looking Ahead: 1 % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time” ABC1 C2DE September 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 169 223 187 156 265 478 523Strongly Agree 6% 8% 4% 7% 6% 9% 6% 3% 5% 7%Slightly Agree 18% 19% 18% 24% 21% 15% 17% 16% 21% 16%Neither/Nor 10% 9% 10% 13% 12% 10% 3% 9% 9% 11%Slightly Disagree 25% 24% 26% 30% 23% 22% 23% 25% 27% 22%Strongly Disagree 35% 35% 34% 15% 26% 42% 46% 43% 33% 37% Source: Amárach Research, September 2012Economic Recovery Index 6

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Looking Ahead: 2 % of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper – who agree/disagree with the statement: “Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time” Irish September Ulster Dunne Voda Irish Irish Total AIB BOI Tesco Aldi O2 Meteor Daily 2012 Bank Stores fone Times Indo MailWeighted Sample 1001 385 293 113 412 177 147 277 349 201 207 243 92Strongly Agree 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 4% 8% 8% 12%Slightly Agree 18% 20% 19% 16% 21% 18% 16% 16% 19% 22% 23% 22% 19%Neither/Nor 10% 10% 9% 6% 10% 10% 11% 9% 8% 12% 8% 10% 8%Slightly Disagree 25% 23% 28% 23% 23% 28% 26% 28% 24% 23% 24% 27% 21%Strongly Disagree 35% 33% 34% 40% 33% 32% 35% 36% 37% 29% 30% 31% 34% Source: Amárach Research, September 2012Economic Recovery Index 7

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Recovery Outlook 2 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly 50% 47% 45%45% 41%41% 41% 42% 51% 47% 48% 47% 43% 39%37%36%39%40% 39% 38%38% 37% 40% 38%36% 39% 38% 35% 48%48% 48% 46% 47% 45% 46% 32%34% 34% 34% 34%33% 45% Aug Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Nov Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Sept Sept Sept Apr12 Sept June June June Jun Feb Feb Feb July July July July May May May May Mar Mar Mar Jan Jan Jan Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly 62% 61%60%61%60% 56% 56% 53% 55% 55% 55% 53% 59% 49% 47%48%50% 49%46%49% 46%49%48%50% 46% 52% 54% 52% 45%45% 45% 44% 45%45%43% 45%45%43% 42% 53%51% 50% Aug Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Nov Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Apr 09 Apr 11 Sept Sept Sept Apr12 Sept Apr10 June June June Jun Feb Feb Feb July July July July May May May May Mar Mar Mar Jan Jan Jan Source: Amárach Research, September 2012Economic Recovery Index 8

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Heads Down: 1 % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession” ABC1 C2DE September 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 169 223 187 156 265 1001 495Strongly Agree 9% 9% 9% 8% 7% 9% 8% 11% 9% 9%Slightly Agree 27% 28% 25% 24% 32% 18% 22% 32% 27% 28%Neither/Nor 13% 12% 14% 18% 14% 13% 7% 13% 13% 12%Slightly Disagree 23% 22% 23% 27% 20% 22% 25% 20% 23% 22%Strongly Disagree 27% 26% 27% 17% 24% 35% 38% 22% 27% 26% Source: Amárach Research, September 2012Economic Recovery Index 9

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Heads Down: 2 % of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper – who agree/disagree with the statement: “I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession” Irish Ulster Dunne Voda Irish IrishSeptember 2012 Total AIB BOI Bank Tesco Stores Aldi O2 fone Meteor Times Indo Daily MailWeighted Sample 1001 385 293 113 412 177 147 277 349 201 207 243 92Strongly Agree 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 4% 8% 8% 12%Slightly Agree 18% 20% 19% 16% 21% 18% 16% 16% 19% 22% 23% 22% 19%Neither/Nor 10% 10% 9% 6% 10% 10% 11% 9% 8% 12% 8% 10% 8%Slightly Disagree 25% 23% 28% 23% 23% 28% 26% 28% 24% 23% 24% 27% 21%Strongly Disagree 35% 33% 34% 40% 33% 32% 35% 36% 37% 29% 30% 31% 34% Source: Amárach Research, September 2012Economic Recovery Index 10

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Recovery Outlook 3 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly 46% 35% 36% 43% 43% 42% 30% 40%39% 33% 25% 21% 17% 25% 20% 23% 24% 35% 28%27% 16% 11% 16% 15% 13% 12%12% 16% 14% 12% 17% 15% 16% 18% 20% 14% Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Oct Nov Oct Dec Dec Dec Apr 10 Apr 11 Sept Sept Sept Apr12 June June June Feb Feb Feb Oct 09 July July July May May May Mar Mar Mar Jan Jan Jan I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly 22% 21% 22% 21% 18% 23% 20% 21%21% 18% 18% 17% 21% 17% 19% 22% 25% 19% 16% 15%15% 18% 15%15% 19% 17% 20% 18% 18% 22% 20% 17% 20% 15% 17% 13% Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Oct Nov Oct Dec Dec Dec Apr 11 Sept Sept Sept Apr10 Apr12 June June June Feb Feb Feb Oct 09 July July July May May May Mar Mar Mar Jan Jan Jan Source: Amárach Research, September 2012Economic Recovery Index 11

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Financial Sentiment Indicators % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: September 2010, 2011, 2012 & September 2012 I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more spending money than I than before because of Impact on: was a few months ago the recession •Spending •Saving •Debt 18% 14% 17% 13% 24% 23% 28% 26% •Borrowing Sept10 Sept11 Aug12 Sept12 Sept10 Sept11 Aug12 Sept12 Now is a good time to Paying off debts is my I would be happy to buy a house for those main financial priority borrow from a bank if I who want to need to 59% 62% 64% 62% 56% 54% 56% 57% 27% 23% 25% 24% Sept10 Sept11 Aug12 Sept12 Sept10 Sept11 Aug12 Sept12 Sept10 Sept11 Aug12 Sept12 Source: Amárach Research, September 2012Economic Recovery Index 12

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Spendthrift: 1 % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago” ABC1 C2DE September 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 169 223 187 156 265 478 523Strongly Agree 3% 4% 3% 2% 6% 3% 4% 2% 4% 3%Slightly Agree 10% 12% 7% 15% 13% 9% 6% 6% 9% 10%Neither/Nor 16% 17% 16% 17% 17% 14% 10% 20% 18% 15%Slightly Disagree 29% 26% 32% 31% 27% 26% 28% 32% 31% 27%Strongly Disagree 40% 39% 41% 32% 36% 47% 51% 39% 37% 44% Source: Amárach Research, September 2012Economic Recovery Index 13

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Spendthrift: 2 % of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper – who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago” Irish September Ulster Dunne Voda Irish Irish Total AIB BOI Tesco Aldi O2 Meteor Daily 2012 Bank Stores fone Times Indo MailWeighted Sample 1001 385 293 113 412 177 147 277 349 201 207 243 92Strongly Agree 3% 4% 3% 1% 5% 2% 2% 4% 3% 4% 7% 3% 3%Slightly Agree 10% 10% 9% 8% 11% 7% 10% 10% 8% 11% 11% 16% 13%Neither/Nor 16% 18% 18% 13% 18% 14% 11% 17% 18% 15% 16% 13% 15%Slightly Disagree 29% 24% 33% 33% 30% 40% 17% 31% 27% 27% 32% 32% 34%Strongly Disagree 40% 42% 35% 45% 35% 35% 57% 37% 42% 41% 33% 34% 35% Source: Amárach Research, September 2012Economic Recovery Index 14

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Rainy Day: 1 % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession” ABC1 C2DE September 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 169 223 187 156 265 478 523Strongly Agree 11% 11% 11% 22% 12% 8% 3% 9% 9% 12%Slightly Agree 15% 15% 16% 19% 22% 13% 9% 13% 16% 14%Neither/Nor 19% 20% 18% 22% 16% 15% 15% 24% 19% 18%Slightly Disagree 20% 19% 21% 18% 18% 19% 22% 22% 22% 18%Strongly Disagree 34% 33% 34% 15% 30% 45% 50% 32% 31% 36% Source: Amárach Research, September 2012Economic Recovery Index 15

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Rainy Day: 2 % of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper – who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession” Irish September Ulster Dunne Voda Irish Irish Total AIB BOI Tesco Aldi O2 Meteor Daily 2012 Bank Stores fone Times Indo MailWeighted Sample 1001 385 293 113 412 177 147 277 349 201 207 243 92Strongly Agree 11% 11% 10% 11% 11% 14% 13% 12% 11% 12% 14% 14% 15%Slightly Agree 15% 16% 16% 10% 17% 19% 10% 15% 15% 15% 18% 20% 19%Neither/Nor 19% 20% 21% 16% 20% 15% 17% 18% 21% 15% 19% 17% 18%Slightly Disagree 20% 19% 22% 22% 20% 21% 17% 19% 20% 20% 23% 22% 11%Strongly Disagree 34% 31% 31% 41% 30% 31% 42% 34% 32% 35% 25% 26% 37% Source: Amárach Research, September 2012Economic Recovery Index 16

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The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to September 201270%60%50%40%30%20% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry10% 0% June June June Nov Dec July Nov Dec July Nov Dec July Oct Oct Oct Apr12 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Aug Aug Aug Aug Sept Sept Sept Sept Feb Feb Feb May May Mar Mar Mar Jun Jan Jan Jan Jul May May Source: Amárach Research, September 2012Economic Recovery Index 17

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The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to September 201240%35%30%25%20%15%10% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger 5% 0% Aug Aug Aug Aug Feb Feb Feb June June Jun Jul Jan Jan Jan Apr12 Mar Mar Mar May May May May Apr 09 Oct Apr 10 Oct Apr 11 Oct Nov Dec Nov Dec Nov Dec Sept July Sept July Sept July Sept June Source: Amárach Research, September 2012Economic Recovery Index 18

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Changing Moods: 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: September 2012 ABC1 C2DE September 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50- 1001 474 527 175 202 198 155 271 491 510Enjoyment 51% 51% 51% 56% 45% 38% 49% 62% 57% 45%Happiness 51% 46% 55% 62% 50% 46% 41% 53% 53% 48%Stress 42% 41% 43% 46% 45% 50% 44% 31% 43% 42%Worry 41% 39% 42% 42% 43% 46% 42% 33% 38% 43%Anxiety 29% 30% 27% 29% 33% 30% 32% 22% 28% 29%Boredom 27% 27% 28% 50% 31% 27% 20% 14% 25% 30%Physical Pain 22% 21% 23% 13% 18% 23% 27% 27% 19% 24%Sadness 17% 16% 18% 25% 15% 18% 19% 12% 14% 21%Anger 14% 15% 14% 17% 16% 17% 11% 11% 13% 15%Fear 10% 11% 8% 9% 10% 11% 10% 7% 9% 10% Source: Amárach Research, September 2012Economic Recovery Index 19

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Changing Moods: 2 % of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper: did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? Yes: September 2012 Irish September Ulster Dunne Voda Irish Irish Total AIB BOI Tesco Aldi O2 Meteor Daily 2012 Bank Stores fone Times Indo Mail 1001 384 292 113 413 178 145 277 352 200 209 243 94Enjoyment 51% 54% 51% 52% 52% 46% 51% 47% 52% 52% 57% 55% 49%Happiness 51% 55% 51% 44% 52% 44% 54% 49% 51% 47% 57% 50% 55%Stress 42% 39% 42% 49% 44% 42% 45% 40% 39% 45% 36% 44% 52%Worry 41% 40% 40% 38% 42% 40% 40% 41% 36% 43% 36% 38% 46%Anxiety 29% 27% 29% 35% 33% 25% 24% 29% 25% 33% 30% 27% 34%Boredom 27% 27% 26% 30% 27% 29% 31% 25% 25% 35% 26% 24% 32%Physical Pain 22% 22% 20% 23% 22% 22% 23% 18% 26% 22% 20% 20% 22%Sadness 17% 14% 21% 19% 17% 19% 12% 14% 18% 19% 15% 16% 21%Anger 14% 15% 11% 15% 14% 14% 14% 12% 15% 16% 11% 12% 18%Fear 10% 9% 11% 11% 11% 10% 6% 11% 9% 10% 11% 10% 11% Source: Amárach Research, September 2012Economic Recovery Index 20

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Anxious Times This month’s ERI report combines a mix of good news and bad: though more of the latter unfortunately. The percentage of consumers ‘relaxed about spending money’ is the lowest in nearly 20 months – not good heading towards Christmas. That said, it is clear that certain sub-groups – and brands, e.g.: The Irish Times – have customer bases that are slightly more inclined to spend, though not hugely inclined. As ever, the challenge for growth-hungry Irish marketers is to identify and go after the groups that will help you meet your goals: preferably before your competitors do so.Economic Recovery Index 21

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Let’s Get Visual If you find Amárach’s Economic Recovery Index useful (and we know many of you do) then you might be interested in our data visualisation initiative with Delphi Analytics. We have partnered to create an extraordinarily powerful resource online – for free – to enable marketers and others to look at the historical trend in the ERI going back to April 2009 by demographic group, main bank etc. Find out more here: http://delphianalytics.ie/visual- analytics/economic-recovery-index/Economic Recovery Index 22

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Drivers & DrinkingAbout Amárach ResearchWe are an independent market researchagency, providing a full range of researchservices to our Irish and internationalclients. We specialise in turning informationinto insight; and insight into foresight.Our experienced team of directors andexecutives manage online, face-to-face andcati surveys; as well as qualitative researchincluding focus groups, in-depths andethnographic studies. We also offer aunique field-only service to universities andinternational agencies.Amárach Research is proud to be:

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Trends ReportCall us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to bounce forward to success: Mark Nolan Managing Director or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive or Gerard O’Neill Chairmanfor a confidential discussion about your needs and toexplore how we can help you succeed through world class market research. e. gerard.oneill@amarach.com w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch