AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator June 2010

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AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator June 2010

  1. 1. The Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing October Index Results The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator June 2010 Results © Amárach Research 2009
  2. 2. 2 Timing Recovery Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs • All recessions end in recovery – so will this one • The biggest forecasting challenge is timing: when do we know the recession is over and recovery has started? • Amárach Research has developed the Recovery Indicator to help us track the economic cycle more closely • This report summarises the Recovery Indicator results for April 2009 (when it began) to June 2010 • The fieldwork was conducted on 14th to 21st June 2010
  3. 3. 3 A Matter of Measurement • Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and 150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us which statement „best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now‟ • Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle
  4. 4. 4 A Matter of Measurement • The general sense in June „10 is a slight uplift on April and May. In June a marginally greater proportion believe “the situation is bad but has stabilized.” April’09 0% June’10 1% April’09 1% June’10 3% April’09 77% June’10 33% April’09 8% June’10 27% April’09 14% June’10 36%
  5. 5. 5 AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator • Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak). • The Recovery Indicator experienced its strongest monthly surge in January 2010, since then June represents the most significant uplift evident within 2010. 30 27.1 25.3 25 23.8 23.8 22.7 23.5 20 19.6 17.8 18.4 17.8 18.3 16.3 17 15 15 10 8.3 5 0 Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar Apr '10 May June
  6. 6. 6 Recovery Outlook 1 Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly 52% 41% 43% 44% 42% 43% 46% 48% 41% 42% 43% 42% 42% 34% 41% Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June '09 '10 I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly 55% 51% 51% 61% 54% 57% 59% 65% 58% 60% 62% 55% 54% 52% 53% Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June '09 '10
  7. 7. 7 Recovery Outlook 2 I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly 45% 45% 50% 48% 48% 51% 47% 48% 48% 46% 47% 43% 47% 45% 45% Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June '09 '10 Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly 56% 55% 53% 55% 62% 61% 60% 56% 59% 61% 60% 52% 53% 51% 50% Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June '09 '10
  8. 8. 8 Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey Percent of adults who agree with each statement: June 2009 and June 2010 (unless otherwise stated) I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more spending money than I than before because of Impact on: was a few months ago the recession •Spending •Saving 34% 22% 24% •Debt 16% •Borrowing June'09 June '10 June '09 June '10 # Paying off debts is my # Now is a good time to main financial priority # I would be happy to buy a house* for those borrow from a bank if I who want to 61% 61% need to 68% 62% 33% 30% Oct'09 June '10 Oct '09 June '10 Oct '09 June '10 * „a new house‟ in 2009 # Question first asked in October 2009
  9. 9. 9 The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? April 2009 to June 2010 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry 10% 0% Apr May June Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June '09 '10
  10. 10. 10 The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? April 2009 to June 2010 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger 5% 0% Apr May June Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June '09 '10
  11. 11. 11 AIB Contact Details Amárach Contact Details Ronan Sheridan Gerard O‟Neill - Chairman Group Press Officer Amárach Research AIB 11 Kingswood Business Centre Bankcentre Citywest Business Campus Ballsbridge Dublin 24 Dublin 4 T. (01) 410 5200 T. (01) 641 4651 E. gerard.oneill@amarach.com M. 086 388 0898 W. www.amarach.com B. amarachresearch.blogspot.com

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