The document summarizes the results of the April 2010 AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator survey, which tracks economic sentiment in Ireland. The survey found that while the economic situation is still viewed as bad, more people feel it is stabilizing or improving compared to last year. The Recovery Indicator index rose to 23.8 in April 2010, up from 8.3 in April 2009. Younger people and women are more optimistic than others about the recovery. While saving and paying off debts remain priorities, fewer people report saving more due to the recession compared to a year ago.

1. The Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
October Index Results
The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator
April 2010 Results
© Amárach Research 2009

2. 2
Timing Recovery
Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs
• All recessions end in recovery – so will
this one
• The biggest forecasting challenge is
timing: when do we know the recession is
over and recovery has started?
• Amárach Research has developed the
Recovery Indicator to help us track the
economic cycle more closely
• This report summarises the Recovery
Indicator results for April 2009 (when it
began) to April 2010
• The fieldwork was conducted on 13th to
20th April 2010

3. 3
A Matter of Measurement
• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and
150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us
which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’
• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle

4. 4
A Matter of Measurement
• The general sense in April’10 remains very consistent with March ‘10, albeit with a marginal
increase in the recovery index. Similarly to March ‘10; when it comes to the economy, there is
still a divide between it is ‘bad but stable or improving’ and it is ‘bad and getting worse’.
April’09 0% April’10 1%
April’09 1% April10 2%
April’09 77% April’10 38% April’09 8% April’10 25%
April’09 14% April’10 34%

5. AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator
• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which
ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak)
• The Recovery Indicator experienced its strongest monthly surge in January 2010,
more gradual growths are evident over the February to April periods.
30
27.1
25
23.8
22.7 23.5
20 19.6
17.8 18.4 17.8 18.3
16.3 17
15 15
10
8.3
5
0
Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar Apr '10

6. 6
Recovery Outlook 1
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time:
% agree strongly/slightly
52%
41% 43% 41% 42% 43%
41% 44% 42% 43% 46% 48%
34%
Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar Apr
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation:
% agree strongly/slightly
57% 59% 65% 58% 60% 62% 55% 51% 51% 61% 55% 54% 52%
Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar Apr

7. 7
Recovery Outlook 2
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the
recession: % agree strongly/slightly
45% 45% 50% 47% 43% 47%
48% 48% 51% 47% 48% 48% 46%
Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar Apr
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it
is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
56% 55% 53%
59% 62% 61% 60% 61% 60% 56% 55% 53%
52%
Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar Apr

8. 8
Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey
Percent of adults who agree with each statement: March 2010 and April 2010 (unless otherwise stated)
I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more
Impact on: spending money than I than before because of
the recession
•Spending was a few months ago
•Saving 36%
•Debt 21% 28%
16%
•Borrowing
April '09 April '10 April '09 April '10
Paying off debts is my I would be happy to
Now is a good time to buy
main financial priority borrow from a bank if I
a house* for those who
need to
want to
61% 59%
64%
53%
30% 31%
March '10 April '10 March '10 April '10
April '09 April '10
* ‘a new house’ in 2009

9. 9
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feeling a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to April 2010
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
0%
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
'09 '10 '10

10. 10
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feeling a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to April 2010
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
0%
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
'09 '10 '10

11. 11
Leading and Lagging the Recovery
Looking back a year to April 2009, there have been a number of key changes:
• A year ago, men were more confident than women that the economy was at a
turning point for the better – one year on and women are now more confident
than men (albeit both are considerably more confident than last year).
• Young people are much more optimistic than older people about the recovery
status of the economy, whereas 45-54 years olds remain less optimistic than
others, just as they did last year – but they too are in a better place a year on.
• Women are much more relaxed about spending money than a year ago, as
are young people – and both groups are key to driving consumer spending.
• The pressure to save and to pay down debts is still very strong, but here again
we have seen significant shifts in the past year, with a big fall in the percentage
of adults overall – and females in particular – who agree they are saving more
because of the recession; in the latter case from 41% to 27% in just twelve
months.

12. 12
AIB Contact Details Amárach Contact Details
Ronan Sheridan Gerard O’Neill - Chairman
Group Press Officer Amárach Research
AIB 11 Kingswood Business Centre
Bankcentre Citywest Business Campus
Ballsbridge Dublin 24
Dublin 4
T. (01) 410 5200
T. (01) 641 4651 E. gerard.oneill@amarach.com
M. 086 388 0898 W. www.amarach.com
B. amarachresearch.blogspot.com