Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
Latin America & Caribbean Regional Outlook June 2013
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Latin America & Caribbean Regional Outlook June 2013

636

Published on

http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook …

http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

After a sharp recovery from the global economic crisis in 2010, when regional output expanded by 6 percent, growth in the Latin America and the Caribbean decelerated markedly, to an estimated 3 percent by 2012. Supply side constraints have become apparent in some of the larger economies, where output was near or above potential during the recovery phase, and which contributed to relatively high inflation and deterioration of current account balances. Despite a sharp deceleration in growth, regional output is only now in line with potential GDP.

Published in: Business, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
636
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
3
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide
  • GEP 2010 Presentation
  • The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
  • The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
  • The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
  • The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
  • The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
  • The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
  • The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
  • The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
  • GEP 2010 Presentation
  • Transcript

    • 1. 1Cristina SavescuWorld BankJune 2013GlobalEconomicProspectsLatin America & theCaribbeanRegional Outlookhttp://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
    • 2. Growth in the Latin America and the Caribbeanregion is expected to firm only marginally this yearto 3.3 percent from 3.0 percent in 2012.2
    • 3. Growth in the Latin America and the Caribbeanregion is expected to firm only marginally this yearto 3.3 percent from 3.0 percent in 2012.3
    • 4. 012345672003-2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Latin America and the Caribbean4GDP growth, percentSource: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.Growth in the region will accelerateonly marginally through 2015
    • 5. 012345672003-2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Latin America and the Caribbean5GDP growth, percentSource: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.5.3%Growth in the region will accelerateonly marginally through 2015
    • 6. 012345672003-2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Latin America and the Caribbean6GDP growth, percentSource: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.5.3%Growth in the region will accelerateonly marginally through 2015
    • 7. 012345672003-2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015South America7GDP growth, percentSource: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.Latin America and the CaribbeanGrowth in the region will accelerateonly marginally through 2015
    • 8. 012345672003-2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015South America8GDP growth, percentSource: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.Latin America and the CaribbeanDeveloping Central and North AmericaGrowth in the region will accelerateonly marginally through 2015
    • 9. 012345672003-2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015South AmericaGrowth in the region will accelerateonly marginally through 20159GDP growth, percentSource: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.Latin America and the CaribbeanThe CaribbeanDeveloping Central and North America
    • 10. Growth has remained subdueddespite accommodative macropolicies.
    • 11. 024681012141630-Aug-08 30-Aug-09 30-Aug-10 30-Aug-11 30-Aug-12MexicoColombiaChilePeruMonetary policies remain accommodativeshort-term policy interest rates, percentSour ces: Wor l d Bank; Dat ast r eam.
    • 12. 024681012141630-Aug-08 30-Aug-09 30-Aug-10 30-Aug-11 30-Aug-12MexicoColombiaChilePeruMonetary policies remain accommodativeshort-term policy interest rates, percentSour ces: Wor l d Bank; Dat ast r eam.Brazil
    • 13. ArgentinaAntigua andBarbudaBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominicaDominican Rep.EcuadorGuatemalaGuyanaHondurasHaitiJamaicaSt. LuciaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaPeruEl Salvador SurinameUruguaySt. Vincent andGrenadinesVenezuela-4.5-3.5-2.5-1.5-0.50.51.52.53.54.5-4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5Speed of gap closure in 2013, percentage pointsSize of outputgap (2012)Gap closing from below OverheatingGap closing from aboveCrashing
    • 14. ArgentinaAntigua andBarbudaBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominicaDominican Rep.EcuadorGuatemalaGuyanaHondurasHaitiJamaicaSt. LuciaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaPeruEl Salvador SurinameUruguaySt. Vincent andGrenadinesVenezuela-4.5-3.5-2.5-1.5-0.50.51.52.53.54.5-4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5Speed of gap closure in 2013, percentage pointsSize of outputgap (2012)Gap closing from below OverheatingGap closing from aboveCrashing
    • 15. ArgentinaAntigua andBarbudaBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominicaDominican Rep.EcuadorGuatemalaGuyanaHondurasHaitiJamaicaSt. LuciaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaPeruEl Salvador SurinameUruguaySt. Vincent andGrenadinesVenezuela-4.5-3.5-2.5-1.5-0.50.51.52.53.54.5-4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5Speed of gap closure in 2013, percentage pointsSize of outputgap (2012)Gap closing from below OverheatingGap closing from aboveCrashing
    • 16. ArgentinaAntigua andBarbudaBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominicaDominican Rep.EcuadorGuatemalaGuyanaHondurasHaitiJamaicaSt. LuciaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaPeruEl Salvador SurinameUruguaySt. Vincent andGrenadinesVenezuela-4.5-3.5-2.5-1.5-0.50.51.52.53.54.5-4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5Speed of gap closure in 2013, percentage pointsSize of outputgap (2012)Gap closing from below OverheatingGap closing from aboveCrashing
    • 17. Developments in the first quarter of2013 underscore some of the downsiderisks to the outlook
    • 18. -4-2024681012Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Mexico PeruQ1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Sour ces: Wor l d Bank; Dat ast r eam.A relatively weak start of the year in Latin America andCaribbeanGDP, q/q per cent annual i zed change, sa
    • 19. -4-2024681012Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Mexico PeruQ1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Sour ces: Wor l d Bank; Dat ast r eam.A relatively weak start of the year in Latin America andCaribbeanGDP, q/q per cent annual i zed change, sa
    • 20. Large fluctuations of exportprices represent a major risk tooutlook for commodityexporters.
    • 21. Commodity exporters at riskif commodity prices decline more quickly-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.2Latin America &CaribbeanOil exporters Oil importersOil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014Impact, % of GDPSource: World Bank.
    • 22. Commodity exporters at riskif commodity prices decline more quickly-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.2Latin America &CaribbeanOil exporters Oil importersOil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014Impact, % of GDPSource: World Bank.
    • 23. Commodity exporters at riskif commodity prices decline more quickly-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.2Latin America &CaribbeanOil exporters Oil importersOil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014Impact, % of GDPSource: World Bank.
    • 24. Commodity exporters at riskif commodity prices decline more quickly-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.2Latin America &CaribbeanOil exporters Oil importersOil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014Impact, % of GDP-1.8-1.2-0.60Latin America &CaribbeanCaribbean metalexportersMetals prices decline by 20% by mid 2014Impact, % of GDPSource: World Bank.
    • 25. Commodity exporters at riskif commodity prices decline more quickly-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.2Latin America &CaribbeanOil exporters Oil importersOil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014Impact, % of GDP-1.8-1.2-0.60Latin America &CaribbeanCaribbean metalexportersMetals prices decline by 20% by mid 2014Impact, % of GDPSource: World Bank.
    • 26. Commodity exporters at riskif commodity prices decline more quickly-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.2Latin America &CaribbeanOil exporters Oil importersOil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014Impact, % of GDP-1.8-1.2-0.60Latin America &CaribbeanCaribbean metalexportersMetals prices decline by 20% by mid 2014Impact, % of GDPSource: World Bank.
    • 27. 27Cristina SavescuWorld BankJune 2013GlobalEconomicProspectsLatin America & theCaribbeanRegional Outlookhttp://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

    ×