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Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Outlook June 2013

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http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

Strong domestic demand allowed Sub Saharan African economies to continue their robust growth trajectory in 2012, despite subdued global demand conditions. On aggregate the region grew at 4.4 per cent in 2012 (this includes South Sudan whose GDP recorded a double digit contraction).

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Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Outlook June 2013

  1. 1. 1Allen DennisWorld BankJune 2013GlobalEconomicProspectsSub-Saharan AfricaRegional Outlookhttp://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
  2. 2. Growth in Sub Saharan Africa has remained robustSource: World Bank-3.0-1.01.03.05.07.02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fDeveloping (ex. China)Sub Saharan AfricaSub Saharan Africa (ex. South Africa)(real GDP growth, % ch)
  3. 3. Growth in Sub Saharan Africa has remained robustSource: World Bank-3.0-1.01.03.05.07.02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fDeveloping (ex. China)Sub Saharan AfricaSub Saharan Africa (ex. South Africa)(real GDP growth, % ch)
  4. 4. Growth in Sub Saharan Africa has remained robustSource: World Bank-3.0-1.01.03.05.07.02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fDeveloping (ex. China)Sub Saharan AfricaSub Saharan Africa (ex. South Africa)(real GDP growth, % ch)
  5. 5. 18.2%Fastest Growing economies in Sub Saharan Africa(Real GDP growth in 2012, %ch)Source: World Bank0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16BrazilRussiaIndiaNigeriaDem. Rep. of…ZambiaTanzaniaEritreaMozambiqueRwandaChinaBurkina FasoAngolaGhanaEthiopiaCote DIvoireNigerSierra Leone 18.2%
  6. 6. 18.2%Fastest Growing economies in Sub Saharan Africa(Real GDP growth in 2012, %ch)Source: World Bank0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16BrazilRussiaIndiaNigeriaDem. Rep. of…ZambiaTanzaniaEritreaMozambiqueRwandaChinaBurkina FasoAngolaGhanaEthiopiaCote DIvoireNigerSierra Leone 18.2%
  7. 7. Political instability, severe laborunrests and exogenous weathershocks disrupted economic activity.
  8. 8. Much of the robust growth came from robustdomestic demand, including increased privateand public investments and resilient consumerspending.
  9. 9. Foreign Direct Investment flows to the region remain strong01020304050607080902008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fOther Capital InflowsNet FDI inflowsNet capital flows to Sub Saharan Africa ($billions)Source: World Bank
  10. 10. Foreign Direct Investment flows to the region remain strong01020304050607080902008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fOther Capital InflowsNet FDI inflowsNet capital flows to Sub Saharan Africa ($billions)Source: World Bank$40 bn
  11. 11. Foreign Direct Investment flows to the region remain strong01020304050607080902008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fOther Capital InflowsNet FDI inflowsNet capital flows to Sub Saharan Africa ($billions)Source: World Bank$40 bn$32 bn
  12. 12. Growth in the non-resource sector has beenstrong, especially the services sectorFaster growing sectors Slower growing sectorsNigeria Telecommunications, Hotel &Restaurants, construction, realestate.Crude petroleum & natural gasTanzania Transport and communications,Real estate, whole sale and retailtradeMining and quarryingBotswanaConstruction, Financial and businessservices, Transport &communicationsMiningGhana Financial & Insurance, Information& Communication, Real estateMining and quarryingSouthAfricaFinance, real estate & businessservices, whole sale & retail tradeMining and quarryingRwanda Industrial, and services AgricultureSource: World Bank and National Statistical Offices
  13. 13. Growth in the non-resource sector has beenstrong, especially the services sectorFaster growing sectors Slower growing sectorsNigeriaTelecommunications,Hotel & Restaurants, construction,real estate.Crude petroleum & natural gasTanzania Transport and communications,Real estate, whole sale and retailtradeMining and quarryingBotswanaConstruction, Financial and businessservices, Transport &communicationsMiningGhana Financial & Insurance, Information& Communication, Real estateMining and quarryingSouthAfricaFinance, real estate & businessservices, whole sale & retail tradeMining and quarryingRwanda Industrial, and services AgricultureSource: World Bank and National Statistical Offices
  14. 14. Growth in the non-resource sector has beenstrong, especially the services sectorFaster growing sectors Slower growing sectorsNigeria Telecommunications, Hotel &Restaurants, construction, realestate.Crude petroleum & natural gasTanzania Transport and communications,Real estate, whole sale and retailtradeMining and quarryingBotswanaConstruction, Financial and businessservices, Transport &communicationsMiningGhana Financial & Insurance, Information& Communication, Real estateMining and quarryingSouthAfricaFinance, real estate & businessservices, whole sale & retail tradeMining and quarryingRwanda Industrial, and services AgricultureSource: World Bank and National Statistical Offices
  15. 15. Growth in the non-resource sector has beenstrong, especially the services sectorFaster growing sectors Slower growing sectorsNigeria Telecommunications, Hotel &Restaurants, construction, realestate.Crude petroleum & natural gasTanzania Transport and communications,Real estate, whole sale and retailtradeMining and quarryingBotswanaConstruction, Financial andbusiness services, Transport &communicationsMiningGhana Financial & Insurance, Information& Communication, Real estateMining and quarryingSouthAfricaFinance, real estate & businessservices, whole sale & retail tradeMining and quarryingRwanda Industrial, and services AgricultureSource: World Bank and National Statistical Offices
  16. 16. Growth in the non-resource sector has beenstrong, especially the services sectorFaster growing sectors Slower growing sectorsNigeria Telecommunications, Hotel &Restaurants, construction, realestate.Crude petroleum & natural gasTanzania Transport and communications,Real estate, whole sale and retailtradeMining and quarryingBotswanaConstruction, Financial and businessservices, Transport &communicationsMiningGhana Financial & Insurance, Information& Communication, Real estateMining and quarryingSouthAfricaFinance, real estate & businessservices, whole sale & retail tradeMining and quarryingRwanda Industrial, and services AgricultureSource: World Bank and National Statistical Offices
  17. 17. Inflation has decelerated in recent monthsSource: World Bank And International Financial Statistics4.05.06.07.08.09.010.011.012.0Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13Oil Importers Oil Exporters Sub Saharan Africa(inflation, y/y)
  18. 18. In 2013 remittances areexpected to rise by $1 billion.
  19. 19. In 2013 remittances areexpected to rise by $1 billion.
  20. 20. Medium-term growth outlook for Sub Saharan Africaremains strongSource: World Bank3.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.02008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fSub Saharan Africa Sub Saharan Africa (ex. South Africa)(real GDP growth, % ch)
  21. 21. Medium-term growth outlook for Sub Saharan Africaremains strongSource: World Bank3.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.02008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fSub Saharan Africa Sub Saharan Africa (ex. South Africa)(real GDP growth, % ch)
  22. 22. Medium-term growth outlook for Sub Saharan Africaremains strongSource: World Bank3.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.02008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fSub Saharan Africa Sub Saharan Africa (ex. South Africa)(real GDP growth, % ch)
  23. 23. Risks• External Risks– Weaker growth in global economy– Decline in commodity prices
  24. 24. Risks• External Risks– Weaker growth in global economy– Decline in commodity prices• Domestic Risks– Overheating in economies operating close tocapacity– Adverse weather shocks– Political unrests
  25. 25. 25Allen DennisWorld BankJune 2013GlobalEconomicProspectsSub-Saharan AfricaRegional Outlookhttp://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

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