Klingbeil, R., & Assaf, H., 2010. Water, Scarcity and Climate Change - Some Considerations. Keynote Lecture at the Fifth Environmental Symposium of German-Arab Scientific Forum for Environmental Studies “Impact of Global Warming on Water Resources in the Middle East and North Africa”, 20-21 September 2010, Byblos, Lebanon.

1. Water, Scarcity, Climate Change in the
Middle East
Byblos, Lebanon Ralf Klingbeil, Regional Advisor
20 September 2010 Environment & Water, UN ESCWA
Hamed Assaf, Assistant Professor,
Dept. Civil & Env. Eng., AUB, Lebanon

2. Lebanon - ‫ - لبنان‬Libanon
Welcome in
Lebanon
‫أهال وسهال‬
‫بكم في لبنان‬
Willkommen
im Libanon
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3. Opening Quotes
• “Arabs are already in the heart of the water
catastrophe.”
• “Any delay in a serious response to the water
challenge corresponds to mass suicide.
The water apocalypse is knocking on Arab
doors, right now.”
Najib Saab, SG AFED, 12 June 2010
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4. Iraq – Displacement due to Drought
IOM, July 2010
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5. Iraq – Water Needs 2008 - 2010
IOM, July 2010
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6. Outline
• UN ESCWA: A UN Regional Commission
• Water - Challenges
• Scarcity
– Resources
– Competition
– Governance
• Climate Change in the Region
– Understanding Impacts
– Making Adaptation Work
• ESCWA’s work: Climate Change and Water
• Where Shall We Go From Here?
How Bleak is the Future?
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7. UN ESCWA and the
Regional Dimension in the UN
ECE
1947
ESCWA
ECLAC 1973
1948
ECA ESCAP
1958 1947
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8. UN ESCWA
• 14 Member Countries
• Bahrain
• Egypt
• Iraq
• Jordan
• Kuwait
• Lebanon
• Qatar
• Oman
• Palestine
• Saudi Arabia
• Sudan
• Syrian Arab Republic
• United Arab Emirates
• Yemen
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9. Water - Challenges
• Status and Trends
• Availability vs. Use and Demand
• Renewable vs. Non-Renewable
• Population Growth and Agriculture
• Pollution – Reduction of Available Resources
• Virtual Water
• Water Imports and Transfers
• Desalination
• Transboundary Water and Aquifers
• ... and Climate Change
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10. Actual Renewable Freshwater Resources
per Capita. by Region
FAO AQUASTST, WB 2007
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11. Percent of Total Renewable Water
Resources Withdrawn, by Region
FAO AQUASTAT data 1998-2002, WB 2007
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12. Total Renewable Water per Person
in ESCWA Region
Water Stress
Water Scarcity
Extreme Water Scarcity
ESCWA, 2009
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13. Total Actual Renewable Water
Resources per Capita in MENA
Water Stress
Water Scarcity
Extreme Water Scarcity
FAO AQUASTAT, WB 2007
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14. High Rate of Population Growth
ICBA, Barghouti, 2009
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15. High Rate of Population Growth
in ESCWA Region
ESCWA, 2009
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16. Renewable - Non-Renewable Groundwater
Renewable groundwater resources
Non-renewable groundwater
Non ground water resources
ESCWA, 2009
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17. Scarcity
Resources, Competition and
Governance
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18. Wadi Al-Sirhan, Saudi Arabia
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19. Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia
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FAO AQUASTAT, 2008

20. Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia
Accumulated 30 year groundwater abstraction, 1975 - 2004 per
Region for KSA (WaterWatch, 2006)
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21. Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia
Location of aquifer utilisation zones and outcrop area of principal
aquifers (WaterWatch, 2006)
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22. Sustainability and
Non-Renewable Groundwater
• Immediate gains vs. long term benefits
• No clear “Exit Strategy”,
no replacement for non-renewable water resource
we are here, but
where are we
going next?
after
Al Zubari, 2010
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23. Declining Shares of Agriculture in GDP
ICBA, Barghouti, 2009
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24. Perverse Incentives for Excess Irrigation
WB, 2007
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25. Alternative Future Water Policy Options
Essentially 3 future policy options available:
• Population Policy change –
high political risk, long term impact, adopted
economic development model
• Agricultural Policy change –
medium political risk, medium term impact
• Water Policy change –
lower political risk, short term impact
• Combination of two or three of the above
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26. Three Levels of Scarcity
WB, 2007
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27. Sources of Water and Use
ICBA, Barghouti, 2009
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28. TB Water & Aquifers Worldwide
• MENA Region: Only few transboundary rivers,
BUT large volumes of transboundary groundwater
• Concepts for Transboundary River Basins do not
necessarily fit to the needs in MENA
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29. What is a Transboundary Aquifer ?
UNESCO / ISARM,
2001
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30. TB Water & Aquifers in Middle East
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31. TB Water Cooperation – Principles
1. Equitable and Reasonable Utilisation
2. Obligation not to Cause Significant Harm
3. General Obligation to Cooperate
 Regular Exchange of Data and Information
 Bilateral and Regional Agreements & Arrangements
4. Environmental Protection
 Protection and Preservation of Ecosystems
 Prevention, Reduction and Control of Pollution
5. Monitoring and Management
Limited Sovereignty of Riparian / Aquifer States
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32. Jordan River Basin
• 4 / 5 riparians officially Y
support the LEBANON
1997 UN Watercourse
Y
SYRIA
Convention
JORDAN
N RIVER
Y
BASIN
Y JORDAN
PALESTINE
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Zeitoun 2010

33. Lebanon
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34. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs
Klein. 1998
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35. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs
Hasbani (125 Mio m³/a)
Libanon
Dan (250 Mio m³/a)
Banias (125 Mio m³/a)
Israel Golan
Jordan
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36. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs
• Hasbani Spring, Hasbani River
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37. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs
• Ouazzani Spring, Hasbani River
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38. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs
Klein. 1998
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39. Groundwater Data: Israel – Palestine
Historical Use: Surface and Groundwater
Zeitoun, Messerschmid, Attili, 2009
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40. Groundwater Data: Israel – Palestine
Groundwater Development Costs
MacDonald et al., 2009
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41. Climate Change and Water
in the Region
Understanding Impacts
Making Adaptation Work
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42. Potential Impacts
• Coupled with excessive population growth and
rising living standards,
climate change will exacerbate water scarcity
conditions across the Arab world.
• Persistent reduction of total annual precipitation
coupled with rising temperatures will reduce
water availability.
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43. Potential Impacts
• Changes in water availability
– Increase system resilience through surface / underground storage and transfer capacity
– Shift form surface to underground storage where applicable to reduce evaporation losses
• Urban drainage networks - new dimensions
– Sewage systems, storm runoff
• Desalination - higher temperature in feed water may increase algae growth and risk
of closure of plant intake
– Improve intake procedures
– Increase storage and transfer capacity
• Infrastructure failures
– Higher flooding intensities, frequencies
– Higher temperatures,
• Changes in hydraulic patterns and temperatures
– Loss of snowpack storage in Lebanon, Oman, etc.
• Groundwater recharge changes, impacts on spring and river discharges
– Increase managed aquifer recharge schemes
– Better monitoring and scientific understanding of recharge mechanism for predictive planning
of alternatives, before springs cease
• Seawater level rise
– Increasing groundwater salinisation
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44. Change in Precipitation
Hue shows change in mm/y.
Saturation / intensity shows the
change as percentage of 2005
PPTN.
Evans, J.P., 2009.
21st Century
Climate Change in the
Middle East.
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45. Change in Length of Dry Season
Evans, J.P., 2009.
21st Century
Climate Change in the
Middle East.
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46. Changes in RCM projections of seasonal
precipitation (mm/season) across the region
Mar to May 2070 Sep to Nov 2070
Hemming, D. et al., 2007. Environmental Stresses from Detailed Climate Model Simulations for the
Middle East and Gulf Regions. Defense and Security Implications of Climate Change – Gulf Region
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47. Changes in RCM projections of seasonal
precipitation (mm/season) across the region
Hemming, D. et al., 2007. Environmental Stresses from Detailed Climate Model Simulations for the
Middle East and Gulf Regions. Defense and Security Implications of Climate Change – Gulf Region
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48. ESCWA’s work:
Climate Change and Water
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49. UN Coordination
Global Level
 UN coordinates its work under the Chief Executives Board (CEB)
 CEB decisions supported through the High Level Committee on Programmes (HLCP)
and its Working Group on Climate Change.
 CEB Report “Acting on Climate Change: The UN System Delivering As One” (Nov 2008)
mandates UN Regional Commissions, including ESCWA, to serve as
“The Designated Convener for cross-cutting areas of UN activities supporting
global, regional and national actions.”
.
Regional Level
 Regional Coordination Mechanism (RCM) led by ESCWA, includes LAS
 Thematic Working Group on Climate Change led by UNEP/ROWA
o Monitoring climate change impacts and vulnerability
o Supporting national planning for adaptation
o Enhancing knowledge sharing
o Streamlining financial and technical support
o Building capacity in adaptation
o Supporting efforts to leverage finance for energy efficiency & renewable energy
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50. ESCWA Activities on Adaptation
Global Level
 UN-Water / Task Force on Water and Climate Change
• Policy Note “Climate Change Adaption: The Pivotal Role of Water”
• Flyer “Climate change adaptation is mainly about water…”
• Mapping Exercises, Gap Analysis & Database
Regional Level
 Support to LAS CAMRE/Environment, AMWC, ESCWA CWR
 Integrated Water Resources Management
 AWARENET Working Group on Climate Change
 Shared Water Resources Management
 Green Economy
 Water Supply and Sanitation: MDGs & Water Utilities
 ACWUA – Planned Working Group on Climate Change
 Sustainable Livelihoods
• EGM on “Promoting Best Practices on Sustainable Rural Livelihoods in the
ESCWA Region” (Nov. 2010)
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51. Water – Key Development Issues
Facilitating Food Crisis
Economic Growth
Governance & Finance
Water Resources Management
Livable
Water Supply Climate
Cities
Growth
and Change
Human Development
Water Conflicts
Decentralization
Sanitation
Peak Water
Water Security
Local human services
Urbanization Irrigation Energy and
and Rural Development Hydropower
Poverty Impact Challenges
Water, Climate and Environment
Transboundary Water Financial
Crisis WB, Saghir, 2010
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52. Main Messages
• Water is everybody’s business.
• Goal of many countries:
National water strategy for water security,
enough water for all demands.
• Countries in the region are largely unable to
sustain their water needs only from within their
national boundaries.
• All countries are already net water importers
through food imports – virtual water.
• Largest water consumer is agriculture, although
rarely economically viable nor socially necessary.
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53. Main Messages
• Urgent need to change water, agriculture and
population policies with regard to water consumption
and protection.
• Surface and groundwater is often transboundary, i.e.
(needs to be) shared between neighbouring countries.
• Effective und sustainable management of
transboundary water needs willingness to cooperate
for a more equitable sharing of the benefits from the
common resource.
• Without cooperation, without innovative integration of
economic tools, social justice and environmental
sustainable approaches, without regional and bilateral
agreements on water, the region may actually slowly
move towards a mass suicide.
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55. Water, Scarcity, Climate Change in the
Middle East
Byblos, Lebanon Ralf Klingbeil, Regional Advisor
20 September 2010 Environment & Water, UN ESCWA
Hamed Assaf, Assistant Professor,
Dept. Civil & Env. Eng., AUB, Lebanon