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R. Klingbeil & H. Assaf, 2010: Water, Scarcity and Climate Change - Some Considerations
 

R. Klingbeil & H. Assaf, 2010: Water, Scarcity and Climate Change - Some Considerations

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Klingbeil, R., & Assaf, H., 2010. Water, Scarcity and Climate Change - Some Considerations. Keynote Lecture at the Fifth Environmental Symposium of German-Arab Scientific Forum for Environmental ...

Klingbeil, R., & Assaf, H., 2010. Water, Scarcity and Climate Change - Some Considerations. Keynote Lecture at the Fifth Environmental Symposium of German-Arab Scientific Forum for Environmental Studies “Impact of Global Warming on Water Resources in the Middle East and North Africa”, 20-21 September 2010, Byblos, Lebanon.

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    R. Klingbeil & H. Assaf, 2010: Water, Scarcity and Climate Change - Some Considerations R. Klingbeil & H. Assaf, 2010: Water, Scarcity and Climate Change - Some Considerations Presentation Transcript

    • Water, Scarcity, Climate Change in theMiddle EastByblos, Lebanon Ralf Klingbeil, Regional Advisor20 September 2010 Environment & Water, UN ESCWA Hamed Assaf, Assistant Professor, Dept. Civil & Env. Eng., AUB, Lebanon
    • Lebanon - ‫ - لبنان‬Libanon Welcome in Lebanon ‫أهال وسهال‬ ‫بكم في لبنان‬ Willkommen im Libanon1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 2
    • Opening Quotes• “Arabs are already in the heart of the water catastrophe.”• “Any delay in a serious response to the water challenge corresponds to mass suicide. The water apocalypse is knocking on Arab doors, right now.” Najib Saab, SG AFED, 12 June 20101 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 3
    • Iraq – Displacement due to Drought IOM, July 20101 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 4
    • Iraq – Water Needs 2008 - 2010 IOM, July 20101 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 5
    • Outline• UN ESCWA: A UN Regional Commission• Water - Challenges• Scarcity – Resources – Competition – Governance• Climate Change in the Region – Understanding Impacts – Making Adaptation Work• ESCWA’s work: Climate Change and Water• Where Shall We Go From Here? How Bleak is the Future?1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 6
    • UN ESCWA and the Regional Dimension in the UN ECE 1947 ESCWA ECLAC 1973 1948 ECA ESCAP 1958 19471 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 7
    • UN ESCWA• 14 Member Countries • Bahrain • Egypt • Iraq • Jordan • Kuwait • Lebanon • Qatar • Oman • Palestine • Saudi Arabia • Sudan • Syrian Arab Republic • United Arab Emirates • Yemen 1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 8
    • Water - Challenges• Status and Trends• Availability vs. Use and Demand• Renewable vs. Non-Renewable• Population Growth and Agriculture• Pollution – Reduction of Available Resources• Virtual Water• Water Imports and Transfers• Desalination• Transboundary Water and Aquifers• ... and Climate Change1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 9
    • Actual Renewable Freshwater Resources per Capita. by Region FAO AQUASTST, WB 20071 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 10
    • Percent of Total Renewable Water Resources Withdrawn, by Region FAO AQUASTAT data 1998-2002, WB 20071 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 11
    • Total Renewable Water per Person in ESCWA Region Water Stress Water Scarcity Extreme Water Scarcity ESCWA, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 12
    • Total Actual Renewable Water Resources per Capita in MENA Water Stress Water Scarcity Extreme Water Scarcity FAO AQUASTAT, WB 20071 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 13
    • High Rate of Population Growth ICBA, Barghouti, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 14
    • High Rate of Population Growth in ESCWA Region ESCWA, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 15
    • Renewable - Non-Renewable Groundwater Renewable groundwater resources Non-renewable groundwater Non ground water resources ESCWA, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 16
    • Scarcity Resources, Competition and Governance1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 17
    • Wadi Al-Sirhan, Saudi Arabia1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 18
    • Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 19 FAO AQUASTAT, 2008
    • Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia Accumulated 30 year groundwater abstraction, 1975 - 2004 per Region for KSA (WaterWatch, 2006)1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 20
    • Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia Location of aquifer utilisation zones and outcrop area of principal aquifers (WaterWatch, 2006)1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 21
    • Sustainability and Non-Renewable Groundwater• Immediate gains vs. long term benefits• No clear “Exit Strategy”, no replacement for non-renewable water resource we are here, but where are we going next? after Al Zubari, 20101 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 22
    • Declining Shares of Agriculture in GDP ICBA, Barghouti, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 23
    • Perverse Incentives for Excess Irrigation WB, 20071 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 24
    • Alternative Future Water Policy OptionsEssentially 3 future policy options available:• Population Policy change – high political risk, long term impact, adopted economic development model• Agricultural Policy change – medium political risk, medium term impact• Water Policy change – lower political risk, short term impact• Combination of two or three of the above1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 25
    • Three Levels of Scarcity WB, 20071 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 26
    • Sources of Water and Use ICBA, Barghouti, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 27
    • TB Water & Aquifers Worldwide • MENA Region: Only few transboundary rivers, BUT large volumes of transboundary groundwater • Concepts for Transboundary River Basins do not necessarily fit to the needs in MENA1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 28
    • What is a Transboundary Aquifer ? UNESCO / ISARM, 20011 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 29
    • TB Water & Aquifers in Middle East1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 30
    • TB Water Cooperation – Principles1. Equitable and Reasonable Utilisation2. Obligation not to Cause Significant Harm3. General Obligation to Cooperate  Regular Exchange of Data and Information  Bilateral and Regional Agreements & Arrangements4. Environmental Protection  Protection and Preservation of Ecosystems  Prevention, Reduction and Control of Pollution5. Monitoring and ManagementLimited Sovereignty of Riparian / Aquifer States1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 31
    • Jordan River Basin• 4 / 5 riparians officially Y support the LEBANON 1997 UN Watercourse Y SYRIA Convention JORDAN N RIVER Y BASIN Y JORDAN PALESTINE1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 32 Zeitoun 2010
    • Lebanon1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 33
    • Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs Klein. 19981 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 34
    • Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs Hasbani (125 Mio m³/a)Libanon Dan (250 Mio m³/a) Banias (125 Mio m³/a) Israel Golan Jordan1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 35
    • Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs• Hasbani Spring, Hasbani River1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 36
    • Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs• Ouazzani Spring, Hasbani River1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 37
    • Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs Klein. 19981 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 38
    • Groundwater Data: Israel – Palestine Historical Use: Surface and Groundwater Zeitoun, Messerschmid, Attili, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 39
    • Groundwater Data: Israel – Palestine Groundwater Development Costs MacDonald et al., 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 40
    • Climate Change and Water in the Region Understanding Impacts Making Adaptation Work1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 41
    • Potential Impacts• Coupled with excessive population growth and rising living standards, climate change will exacerbate water scarcity conditions across the Arab world.• Persistent reduction of total annual precipitation coupled with rising temperatures will reduce water availability.1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 42
    • Potential Impacts• Changes in water availability – Increase system resilience through surface / underground storage and transfer capacity – Shift form surface to underground storage where applicable to reduce evaporation losses• Urban drainage networks - new dimensions – Sewage systems, storm runoff• Desalination - higher temperature in feed water may increase algae growth and risk of closure of plant intake – Improve intake procedures – Increase storage and transfer capacity• Infrastructure failures – Higher flooding intensities, frequencies – Higher temperatures,• Changes in hydraulic patterns and temperatures – Loss of snowpack storage in Lebanon, Oman, etc.• Groundwater recharge changes, impacts on spring and river discharges – Increase managed aquifer recharge schemes – Better monitoring and scientific understanding of recharge mechanism for predictive planning of alternatives, before springs cease• Seawater level rise – Increasing groundwater salinisation1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 43
    • Change in Precipitation Hue shows change in mm/y. Saturation / intensity shows the change as percentage of 2005 PPTN. Evans, J.P., 2009. 21st Century Climate Change in the Middle East.1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 44
    • Change in Length of Dry Season Evans, J.P., 2009. 21st Century Climate Change in the Middle East.1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 45
    • Changes in RCM projections of seasonal precipitation (mm/season) across the region Mar to May 2070 Sep to Nov 2070Hemming, D. et al., 2007. Environmental Stresses from Detailed Climate Model Simulations for theMiddle East and Gulf Regions. Defense and Security Implications of Climate Change – Gulf Region1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 46
    • Changes in RCM projections of seasonal precipitation (mm/season) across the regionHemming, D. et al., 2007. Environmental Stresses from Detailed Climate Model Simulations for theMiddle East and Gulf Regions. Defense and Security Implications of Climate Change – Gulf Region1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 47
    • ESCWA’s work: Climate Change and Water1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 48
    • UN CoordinationGlobal Level UN coordinates its work under the Chief Executives Board (CEB)  CEB decisions supported through the High Level Committee on Programmes (HLCP) and its Working Group on Climate Change.  CEB Report “Acting on Climate Change: The UN System Delivering As One” (Nov 2008) mandates UN Regional Commissions, including ESCWA, to serve as “The Designated Convener for cross-cutting areas of UN activities supporting global, regional and national actions.” .Regional Level Regional Coordination Mechanism (RCM) led by ESCWA, includes LAS  Thematic Working Group on Climate Change led by UNEP/ROWA o Monitoring climate change impacts and vulnerability o Supporting national planning for adaptation o Enhancing knowledge sharing o Streamlining financial and technical support o Building capacity in adaptation o Supporting efforts to leverage finance for energy efficiency & renewable energy 1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 49
    • ESCWA Activities on AdaptationGlobal Level UN-Water / Task Force on Water and Climate Change • Policy Note “Climate Change Adaption: The Pivotal Role of Water” • Flyer “Climate change adaptation is mainly about water…” • Mapping Exercises, Gap Analysis & DatabaseRegional Level Support to LAS CAMRE/Environment, AMWC, ESCWA CWR Integrated Water Resources Management  AWARENET Working Group on Climate Change Shared Water Resources Management Green Economy Water Supply and Sanitation: MDGs & Water Utilities  ACWUA – Planned Working Group on Climate Change Sustainable Livelihoods • EGM on “Promoting Best Practices on Sustainable Rural Livelihoods in the ESCWA Region” (Nov. 2010) 1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 50
    • Water – Key Development Issues Facilitating Food Crisis Economic Growth Governance & Finance Water Resources Management Livable Water Supply Climate CitiesGrowth and Change Human Development Water Conflicts Decentralization Sanitation Peak Water Water Security Local human services Urbanization Irrigation Energy and and Rural Development Hydropower Poverty Impact Challenges Water, Climate and Environment Transboundary Water Financial Crisis WB, Saghir, 2010 1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 51
    • Main Messages• Water is everybody’s business.• Goal of many countries: National water strategy for water security, enough water for all demands.• Countries in the region are largely unable to sustain their water needs only from within their national boundaries.• All countries are already net water importers through food imports – virtual water.• Largest water consumer is agriculture, although rarely economically viable nor socially necessary.1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 52
    • Main Messages• Urgent need to change water, agriculture and population policies with regard to water consumption and protection.• Surface and groundwater is often transboundary, i.e. (needs to be) shared between neighbouring countries.• Effective und sustainable management of transboundary water needs willingness to cooperate for a more equitable sharing of the benefits from the common resource.• Without cooperation, without innovative integration of economic tools, social justice and environmental sustainable approaches, without regional and bilateral agreements on water, the region may actually slowly move towards a mass suicide.1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 53
    • Water, Scarcity, Climate Change in theMiddle EastByblos, Lebanon Ralf Klingbeil, Regional Advisor20 September 2010 Environment & Water, UN ESCWA Hamed Assaf, Assistant Professor, Dept. Civil & Env. Eng., AUB, Lebanon