Water, Scarcity, Climate Change in theMiddle EastByblos, Lebanon     Ralf Klingbeil, Regional Advisor20 September 2010   E...
Lebanon - ‫ - لبنان‬Libanon                                           Welcome in                                          ...
Opening Quotes• “Arabs are already in the heart of the water   catastrophe.”• “Any delay in a serious response to the wate...
Iraq – Displacement due to Drought                                     IOM, July 20101 February 2012   www.escwa.un.org   ...
Iraq – Water Needs 2008 - 2010                                     IOM, July 20101 February 2012   www.escwa.un.org       ...
Outline• UN ESCWA: A UN Regional Commission• Water - Challenges• Scarcity     – Resources     – Competition     – Governan...
UN ESCWA and the                   Regional Dimension in the UN                                 ECE                       ...
UN ESCWA• 14 Member Countries   •   Bahrain   •   Egypt   •   Iraq   •   Jordan   •   Kuwait   •   Lebanon   •   Qatar   •...
Water - Challenges•   Status and Trends•   Availability vs. Use and Demand•   Renewable vs. Non-Renewable•   Population Gr...
Actual Renewable Freshwater Resources                     per Capita. by Region                                           ...
Percent of Total Renewable Water                  Resources Withdrawn, by Region                                          ...
Total Renewable Water per Person                      in ESCWA Region         Water Stress         Water Scarcity         ...
Total Actual Renewable Water                  Resources per Capita in MENA           Water Stress           Water Scarcity...
High Rate of Population Growth                                           ICBA, Barghouti, 20091 February 2012         www....
High Rate of Population Growth                        in ESCWA Region                                                   ES...
Renewable - Non-Renewable Groundwater              Renewable groundwater resources              Non-renewable groundwater ...
Scarcity                  Resources, Competition and                         Governance1 February 2012            www.escw...
Wadi Al-Sirhan, Saudi Arabia1 February 2012   www.escwa.un.org     18
Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia1 February 2012   www.escwa.un.org                        19                         ...
Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia   Accumulated 30 year groundwater abstraction, 1975 - 2004 per   Region for KSA (Wat...
Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia   Location of aquifer utilisation zones and outcrop area of principal   aquifers (Wa...
Sustainability and                  Non-Renewable Groundwater• Immediate gains vs. long term benefits• No clear “Exit Stra...
Declining Shares of Agriculture in GDP                                       ICBA, Barghouti, 20091 February 2012     www....
Perverse Incentives for Excess Irrigation                                            WB, 20071 February 2012     www.escwa...
Alternative Future Water Policy OptionsEssentially 3 future policy options available:• Population Policy change –  high po...
Three Levels of Scarcity                                             WB, 20071 February 2012           www.escwa.un.org   ...
Sources of Water and Use                                             ICBA, Barghouti, 20091 February 2012           www.es...
TB Water & Aquifers Worldwide                  •   MENA Region: Only few transboundary rivers,                      BUT la...
What is a Transboundary Aquifer ?                                     UNESCO / ISARM,                                     ...
TB Water & Aquifers in Middle East1 February 2012   www.escwa.un.org    30
TB Water Cooperation – Principles1. Equitable and Reasonable Utilisation2. Obligation not to Cause Significant Harm3. Gene...
Jordan River Basin• 4 / 5 riparians officially                            Y  support the                                 L...
Lebanon1 February 2012    www.escwa.un.org   33
Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs                                          Klein. 19981 February 2012       www.escwa.un....
Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs                  Hasbani (125 Mio m³/a)Libanon                             Dan (250 Mio...
Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs• Hasbani Spring, Hasbani River1 February 2012       www.escwa.un.org        36
Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs• Ouazzani Spring, Hasbani River1 February 2012       www.escwa.un.org        37
Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs                                          Klein. 19981 February 2012       www.escwa.un....
Groundwater Data: Israel – Palestine     Historical Use: Surface and Groundwater                                         Z...
Groundwater Data: Israel – Palestine         Groundwater Development Costs                                         MacDona...
Climate Change and Water             in the Region                  Understanding Impacts                  Making Adaptati...
Potential Impacts• Coupled with excessive population growth and  rising living standards,  climate change will exacerbate ...
Potential Impacts•   Changes in water availability     –   Increase system resilience through surface / underground storag...
Change in Precipitation                                           Hue shows change in mm/y.                               ...
Change in Length of Dry Season                                               Evans, J.P., 2009.                           ...
Changes in RCM projections of seasonal  precipitation (mm/season) across the region             Mar to May 2070           ...
Changes in RCM projections of seasonal  precipitation (mm/season) across the regionHemming, D. et al., 2007. Environmental...
ESCWA’s work:       Climate Change and Water1 February 2012   www.escwa.un.org   48
UN CoordinationGlobal Level UN coordinates its work under the Chief Executives Board (CEB)     CEB decisions supported t...
ESCWA Activities on AdaptationGlobal Level UN-Water / Task Force on Water and Climate Change  • Policy Note “Climate Chan...
Water – Key Development Issues                              Facilitating               Food Crisis                        ...
Main Messages• Water is everybody’s business.• Goal of many countries:  National water strategy for water security,  enoug...
Main Messages• Urgent need to change water, agriculture and  population policies with regard to water consumption  and pro...
Water, Scarcity, Climate Change in theMiddle EastByblos, Lebanon     Ralf Klingbeil, Regional Advisor20 September 2010   E...
R. Klingbeil & H. Assaf, 2010: Water, Scarcity and Climate Change - Some Considerations
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R. Klingbeil & H. Assaf, 2010: Water, Scarcity and Climate Change - Some Considerations

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Klingbeil, R., & Assaf, H., 2010. Water, Scarcity and Climate Change - Some Considerations. Keynote Lecture at the Fifth Environmental Symposium of German-Arab Scientific Forum for Environmental Studies “Impact of Global Warming on Water Resources in the Middle East and North Africa”, 20-21 September 2010, Byblos, Lebanon.

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R. Klingbeil & H. Assaf, 2010: Water, Scarcity and Climate Change - Some Considerations

  1. 1. Water, Scarcity, Climate Change in theMiddle EastByblos, Lebanon Ralf Klingbeil, Regional Advisor20 September 2010 Environment & Water, UN ESCWA Hamed Assaf, Assistant Professor, Dept. Civil & Env. Eng., AUB, Lebanon
  2. 2. Lebanon - ‫ - لبنان‬Libanon Welcome in Lebanon ‫أهال وسهال‬ ‫بكم في لبنان‬ Willkommen im Libanon1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 2
  3. 3. Opening Quotes• “Arabs are already in the heart of the water catastrophe.”• “Any delay in a serious response to the water challenge corresponds to mass suicide. The water apocalypse is knocking on Arab doors, right now.” Najib Saab, SG AFED, 12 June 20101 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 3
  4. 4. Iraq – Displacement due to Drought IOM, July 20101 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 4
  5. 5. Iraq – Water Needs 2008 - 2010 IOM, July 20101 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 5
  6. 6. Outline• UN ESCWA: A UN Regional Commission• Water - Challenges• Scarcity – Resources – Competition – Governance• Climate Change in the Region – Understanding Impacts – Making Adaptation Work• ESCWA’s work: Climate Change and Water• Where Shall We Go From Here? How Bleak is the Future?1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 6
  7. 7. UN ESCWA and the Regional Dimension in the UN ECE 1947 ESCWA ECLAC 1973 1948 ECA ESCAP 1958 19471 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 7
  8. 8. UN ESCWA• 14 Member Countries • Bahrain • Egypt • Iraq • Jordan • Kuwait • Lebanon • Qatar • Oman • Palestine • Saudi Arabia • Sudan • Syrian Arab Republic • United Arab Emirates • Yemen 1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 8
  9. 9. Water - Challenges• Status and Trends• Availability vs. Use and Demand• Renewable vs. Non-Renewable• Population Growth and Agriculture• Pollution – Reduction of Available Resources• Virtual Water• Water Imports and Transfers• Desalination• Transboundary Water and Aquifers• ... and Climate Change1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 9
  10. 10. Actual Renewable Freshwater Resources per Capita. by Region FAO AQUASTST, WB 20071 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 10
  11. 11. Percent of Total Renewable Water Resources Withdrawn, by Region FAO AQUASTAT data 1998-2002, WB 20071 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 11
  12. 12. Total Renewable Water per Person in ESCWA Region Water Stress Water Scarcity Extreme Water Scarcity ESCWA, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 12
  13. 13. Total Actual Renewable Water Resources per Capita in MENA Water Stress Water Scarcity Extreme Water Scarcity FAO AQUASTAT, WB 20071 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 13
  14. 14. High Rate of Population Growth ICBA, Barghouti, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 14
  15. 15. High Rate of Population Growth in ESCWA Region ESCWA, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 15
  16. 16. Renewable - Non-Renewable Groundwater Renewable groundwater resources Non-renewable groundwater Non ground water resources ESCWA, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 16
  17. 17. Scarcity Resources, Competition and Governance1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 17
  18. 18. Wadi Al-Sirhan, Saudi Arabia1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 18
  19. 19. Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 19 FAO AQUASTAT, 2008
  20. 20. Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia Accumulated 30 year groundwater abstraction, 1975 - 2004 per Region for KSA (WaterWatch, 2006)1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 20
  21. 21. Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia Location of aquifer utilisation zones and outcrop area of principal aquifers (WaterWatch, 2006)1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 21
  22. 22. Sustainability and Non-Renewable Groundwater• Immediate gains vs. long term benefits• No clear “Exit Strategy”, no replacement for non-renewable water resource we are here, but where are we going next? after Al Zubari, 20101 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 22
  23. 23. Declining Shares of Agriculture in GDP ICBA, Barghouti, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 23
  24. 24. Perverse Incentives for Excess Irrigation WB, 20071 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 24
  25. 25. Alternative Future Water Policy OptionsEssentially 3 future policy options available:• Population Policy change – high political risk, long term impact, adopted economic development model• Agricultural Policy change – medium political risk, medium term impact• Water Policy change – lower political risk, short term impact• Combination of two or three of the above1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 25
  26. 26. Three Levels of Scarcity WB, 20071 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 26
  27. 27. Sources of Water and Use ICBA, Barghouti, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 27
  28. 28. TB Water & Aquifers Worldwide • MENA Region: Only few transboundary rivers, BUT large volumes of transboundary groundwater • Concepts for Transboundary River Basins do not necessarily fit to the needs in MENA1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 28
  29. 29. What is a Transboundary Aquifer ? UNESCO / ISARM, 20011 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 29
  30. 30. TB Water & Aquifers in Middle East1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 30
  31. 31. TB Water Cooperation – Principles1. Equitable and Reasonable Utilisation2. Obligation not to Cause Significant Harm3. General Obligation to Cooperate  Regular Exchange of Data and Information  Bilateral and Regional Agreements & Arrangements4. Environmental Protection  Protection and Preservation of Ecosystems  Prevention, Reduction and Control of Pollution5. Monitoring and ManagementLimited Sovereignty of Riparian / Aquifer States1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 31
  32. 32. Jordan River Basin• 4 / 5 riparians officially Y support the LEBANON 1997 UN Watercourse Y SYRIA Convention JORDAN N RIVER Y BASIN Y JORDAN PALESTINE1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 32 Zeitoun 2010
  33. 33. Lebanon1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 33
  34. 34. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs Klein. 19981 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 34
  35. 35. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs Hasbani (125 Mio m³/a)Libanon Dan (250 Mio m³/a) Banias (125 Mio m³/a) Israel Golan Jordan1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 35
  36. 36. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs• Hasbani Spring, Hasbani River1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 36
  37. 37. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs• Ouazzani Spring, Hasbani River1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 37
  38. 38. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs Klein. 19981 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 38
  39. 39. Groundwater Data: Israel – Palestine Historical Use: Surface and Groundwater Zeitoun, Messerschmid, Attili, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 39
  40. 40. Groundwater Data: Israel – Palestine Groundwater Development Costs MacDonald et al., 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 40
  41. 41. Climate Change and Water in the Region Understanding Impacts Making Adaptation Work1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 41
  42. 42. Potential Impacts• Coupled with excessive population growth and rising living standards, climate change will exacerbate water scarcity conditions across the Arab world.• Persistent reduction of total annual precipitation coupled with rising temperatures will reduce water availability.1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 42
  43. 43. Potential Impacts• Changes in water availability – Increase system resilience through surface / underground storage and transfer capacity – Shift form surface to underground storage where applicable to reduce evaporation losses• Urban drainage networks - new dimensions – Sewage systems, storm runoff• Desalination - higher temperature in feed water may increase algae growth and risk of closure of plant intake – Improve intake procedures – Increase storage and transfer capacity• Infrastructure failures – Higher flooding intensities, frequencies – Higher temperatures,• Changes in hydraulic patterns and temperatures – Loss of snowpack storage in Lebanon, Oman, etc.• Groundwater recharge changes, impacts on spring and river discharges – Increase managed aquifer recharge schemes – Better monitoring and scientific understanding of recharge mechanism for predictive planning of alternatives, before springs cease• Seawater level rise – Increasing groundwater salinisation1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 43
  44. 44. Change in Precipitation Hue shows change in mm/y. Saturation / intensity shows the change as percentage of 2005 PPTN. Evans, J.P., 2009. 21st Century Climate Change in the Middle East.1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 44
  45. 45. Change in Length of Dry Season Evans, J.P., 2009. 21st Century Climate Change in the Middle East.1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 45
  46. 46. Changes in RCM projections of seasonal precipitation (mm/season) across the region Mar to May 2070 Sep to Nov 2070Hemming, D. et al., 2007. Environmental Stresses from Detailed Climate Model Simulations for theMiddle East and Gulf Regions. Defense and Security Implications of Climate Change – Gulf Region1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 46
  47. 47. Changes in RCM projections of seasonal precipitation (mm/season) across the regionHemming, D. et al., 2007. Environmental Stresses from Detailed Climate Model Simulations for theMiddle East and Gulf Regions. Defense and Security Implications of Climate Change – Gulf Region1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 47
  48. 48. ESCWA’s work: Climate Change and Water1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 48
  49. 49. UN CoordinationGlobal Level UN coordinates its work under the Chief Executives Board (CEB)  CEB decisions supported through the High Level Committee on Programmes (HLCP) and its Working Group on Climate Change.  CEB Report “Acting on Climate Change: The UN System Delivering As One” (Nov 2008) mandates UN Regional Commissions, including ESCWA, to serve as “The Designated Convener for cross-cutting areas of UN activities supporting global, regional and national actions.” .Regional Level Regional Coordination Mechanism (RCM) led by ESCWA, includes LAS  Thematic Working Group on Climate Change led by UNEP/ROWA o Monitoring climate change impacts and vulnerability o Supporting national planning for adaptation o Enhancing knowledge sharing o Streamlining financial and technical support o Building capacity in adaptation o Supporting efforts to leverage finance for energy efficiency & renewable energy 1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 49
  50. 50. ESCWA Activities on AdaptationGlobal Level UN-Water / Task Force on Water and Climate Change • Policy Note “Climate Change Adaption: The Pivotal Role of Water” • Flyer “Climate change adaptation is mainly about water…” • Mapping Exercises, Gap Analysis & DatabaseRegional Level Support to LAS CAMRE/Environment, AMWC, ESCWA CWR Integrated Water Resources Management  AWARENET Working Group on Climate Change Shared Water Resources Management Green Economy Water Supply and Sanitation: MDGs & Water Utilities  ACWUA – Planned Working Group on Climate Change Sustainable Livelihoods • EGM on “Promoting Best Practices on Sustainable Rural Livelihoods in the ESCWA Region” (Nov. 2010) 1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 50
  51. 51. Water – Key Development Issues Facilitating Food Crisis Economic Growth Governance & Finance Water Resources Management Livable Water Supply Climate CitiesGrowth and Change Human Development Water Conflicts Decentralization Sanitation Peak Water Water Security Local human services Urbanization Irrigation Energy and and Rural Development Hydropower Poverty Impact Challenges Water, Climate and Environment Transboundary Water Financial Crisis WB, Saghir, 2010 1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 51
  52. 52. Main Messages• Water is everybody’s business.• Goal of many countries: National water strategy for water security, enough water for all demands.• Countries in the region are largely unable to sustain their water needs only from within their national boundaries.• All countries are already net water importers through food imports – virtual water.• Largest water consumer is agriculture, although rarely economically viable nor socially necessary.1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 52
  53. 53. Main Messages• Urgent need to change water, agriculture and population policies with regard to water consumption and protection.• Surface and groundwater is often transboundary, i.e. (needs to be) shared between neighbouring countries.• Effective und sustainable management of transboundary water needs willingness to cooperate for a more equitable sharing of the benefits from the common resource.• Without cooperation, without innovative integration of economic tools, social justice and environmental sustainable approaches, without regional and bilateral agreements on water, the region may actually slowly move towards a mass suicide.1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 53
  54. 54. Water, Scarcity, Climate Change in theMiddle EastByblos, Lebanon Ralf Klingbeil, Regional Advisor20 September 2010 Environment & Water, UN ESCWA Hamed Assaf, Assistant Professor, Dept. Civil & Env. Eng., AUB, Lebanon

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