How ebooks Have Changed the Print Book Marketplace Jonathan Nowell heads Nielsen Book. Their Bookscan service tracks sales of books and ebooks in the US, the UK, and other markets around the world. In this presentation, Nowell will look back over a decade or more of Nielsen book sales data to tell us how the print world has changed. It is accepted fact now that ebooks work commercially for narrative books, but not so well for reference and illustrated books. What that means by category is the focus of Nowell's presentation. He will tell us both how the proportion of print and ebook sales break down in various categories, but also will show how the share of printed books has changed across categories as ebooks have taken hold in the marketplace. The data from Nowell will indicate to us what bookstores might look like in the future as the mainstay sales of bestselling authors move increasingly to digital.

1. January 2015
THE CHANGING MIX OF WHAT SELLS
IN PRINT: HOW EBOOKS HAVE
CHANGED THE PRINT BOOK
MARKETPLACE
JONATHAN NOWELL
NIELSEN BOOK PRESIDENT

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AGENDA
• Broad genre shifts
• Format impacts
• Ebooks by genre
• Fiction
• Non-Fiction
• Juvenile
• The bookstore of the future

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US GENRE BREAKDOWN
Juvenile has grown from 23% to 37% of total market
Nielsen BookScan
45%
32%
23%
2004
Total Adult
Non-Fiction
Total Adult
Fiction
Total Juvenile
41%
31%
28%
2009
Total Adult
Non-Fiction
Total Adult
Fiction
Total Juvenile
40%
23%
37%
2014
Total Adult
Non-Fiction
Total Adult
Fiction
Total Juvenile
650 million 635 million
770 million

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UK GENRE BREAKDOWN
Children’s has grown from 24% to 35% of total market
Nielsen BookScan
44%
32%
24%
2004
Adult Non-
Fiction
Adult Fiction
Children's
38%
34%
28%
2010
Adult Non-
Fiction
Adult Fiction
Children's
37%
28%
35%
2014
Adult Non-
Fiction
Adult Fiction
Children's
204 million 181 million
229 million

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Adult Fiction
0
50
100
150
200
250
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Millions
Mass Market Pbk
Trade Paperback
Hardback
PRINT BOOKS BY FORMAT
In Adult Fiction, hardback sales down less than paperback since 2009
Adult Non-Fiction
Nielsen BookScan
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Millions

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Quarterly ebook sales by genre
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
Millions
Religious Fiction
Bibles
Juvenile Non-Fiction
Other
Religion Non-Fiction
Juvenile Fiction
Non-Fiction
Fiction
US EBOOKS BY BROAD SECTOR
In latest quarter, adult fiction accounts for 65% of ebook sales
PubTrack Digital US

7. FICTION

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Adult Fiction by category, volume sales
0
50
100
150
200
250
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Millions
Western
Action Adventure
Occult/Psychological/Horror
Science Fiction
Religion
Fantasy
Classics
Graphic Novels
Mystery/Detective
Suspense/Thrillers
Romance
General Fiction
LONG TERM CHANGE IN US FICTION
Comparing Fiction in print in the pre- and post-ebook world
Nielsen BookScan

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FICTION TRENDS IN TOP CATEGORIES
Fantasy has seen largest decline since 2009
Nielsen BookScan
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Millions
General Fiction
Romance
Suspense/Thrillers
Mystery/Detective
Graphic Novels
Fantasy
-46%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-27% -58%

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24%
10%
10%
9%6%
6%
6%
5%
4%
3%
1%
1%
0%0% 0%0%0%0%0%
0%
0%
0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
2014
Romance
Mystery & Detective
Thrillers
Suspense
Literary
Fantasy
General
Contemporary Women
FICTION EBOOKS BY CATEGORY
Romance started off as highest in the format and has just gotten bigger over the years
19%
13%
15%
6%6%
8%
8%
3%
4%
3% 1%
1% 0%
4% 0%
2%
1%1%
0%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
2010
Share of fiction ebook sales, volume
PubTrack Digital US

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US volume sales, adult fiction
THREE MAINSTAY FICTION AUTHORS
Have ebooks affected their print sales?
Nielsen BookScan/PubTrack Digital US
Aggregated unit data for three mainstay – (consistent annual output over the long
term).
“Pre-ebook” print
3 years 2008 – 2010
“Post-ebook” print
3 years 2012 – 2014
“ebook”
3 years 2012 – 2014

12. NON-FICTION

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Adult Non-Fiction by category, volume sales
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Millions
House & Home/Gardening
Computers
Humor
Art/Architecture/Design/Photography
Travel
Performing Arts
Crafts/Hobbies/Antiques/Games
Self Help
History/Law/Political Science
Cooking/Entertaining
Business/Economics
Health/Fitness/Medicine/Sports
Biography/Autobiography/Memoir
General Non-Fiction
Reference
Religion/Bibles
DECLINE IN US NON-FICTION LED BY REFERENCE
Market decline pre-dates ebook transition
Nielsen BookScan

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SINCE 2007…
Nielsen BookScan
Travel 50%
Reference
37%
Religion/Bibles
43%
Cooking/Entertaining 11%

15. JUVENILE

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All Juvenile by category, volume sales
IN SPITE OF POST-2009 DIP, JUVENILE SALES UP!
2014 had highest reported sales since records began
Nielsen BookScan
0
50
100
150
200
250
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Millions
Social Situations/Family/Health (NF)
Concepts (NF)
Holidays/Festivals/Religion (NF)
Biographies/Autobiographies
Animals (NF)
Education/Reference/Language
Holidays/Festivals/Religion
Concepts
Animals
Classics
History/Sports/People/Places (NF)
Games/Activities/Hobbies
History/Sports/People/Places
Social Situations/Family/Health
Science Fiction/Fantasy/Magic
General

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JUVENILE FICTION
Nielsen BookScan
38%
17%
14%8%
8%
5%
4% 6%
2004
General
Science
Fiction/Fantasy/Magic
Social
Situations/Family/Health
History/Sports/People/Plac
es
Classics
Animals
Concepts
Holidays/Festivals/Religion
30%
29%
16%
7%
7%
4% 3%
4%
2009
General
Science
Fiction/Fantasy/Magic
Social
Situations/Family/Health
History/Sports/People/Pla
ces
Classics
Animals
Concepts
Holidays/Festivals/Religion
30%
26%
16%8%
5%
5%
5%
5% 2014
General
Science
Fiction/Fantasy/Magic
Social
Situations/Family/Health
History/Sports/People/Place
s
Classics
Animals
Concepts
Holidays/Festivals/Religion
109 million
177 million
163 million
2014 sales were up
62% on 2004, 8% on
2009 and 12% on 2013.

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HIGHEST POST-EBOOK PRINT GROWTH
CATEGORIES …
Nielsen BookScan
2004 2009 2014
Religion/Bibles
Juvenile Non-Fiction
9% 53%
8%
44% 28%
Juvenile Fiction 49%
Performing Arts 5% 12%

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POST EBOOK DECLINE DOMINATED BY FICTION
Nielsen BookScan
2004 2009 2014
Fantasy
General Fiction
Mystery/Detective
Travel
43% 58%
34% 46%
18% 40%
10%
37%
Craft/Hobbies/Games 16% 33%

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BOOK STORE OF THE FUTURE … DESIGNED TO INSPIRE

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… AND TO HAVE FUN

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… DURING THE DAY

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…OR AT NIGHT

24. January 2015
jonathan.nowell@nielsen.com