The Changing Mix of What Sells in Print - Jonathan Nowell, Nielsen Book

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How ebooks Have Changed the Print Book Marketplace

Jonathan Nowell heads Nielsen Book. Their Bookscan service tracks sales of books and ebooks in the US, the UK, and other markets around the world.

In this presentation, Nowell will look back over a decade or more of Nielsen book sales data to tell us how the print world has changed. It is accepted fact now that ebooks work commercially for narrative books, but not so well for reference and illustrated books. What that means by category is the focus of Nowell's presentation. He will tell us both how the proportion of print and ebook sales break down in various categories, but also will show how the share of printed books has changed across categories as ebooks have taken hold in the marketplace. The data from Nowell will indicate to us what bookstores might look like in the future as the mainstay sales of bestselling authors move increasingly to digital.

Published in: Data & Analytics

The Changing Mix of What Sells in Print - Jonathan Nowell, Nielsen Book

  1. 1. January 2015 THE CHANGING MIX OF WHAT SELLS IN PRINT: HOW EBOOKS HAVE CHANGED THE PRINT BOOK MARKETPLACE JONATHAN NOWELL NIELSEN BOOK PRESIDENT
  2. 2. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 2 AGENDA • Broad genre shifts • Format impacts • Ebooks by genre • Fiction • Non-Fiction • Juvenile • The bookstore of the future
  3. 3. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 3 US GENRE BREAKDOWN Juvenile has grown from 23% to 37% of total market Nielsen BookScan 45% 32% 23% 2004 Total Adult Non-Fiction Total Adult Fiction Total Juvenile 41% 31% 28% 2009 Total Adult Non-Fiction Total Adult Fiction Total Juvenile 40% 23% 37% 2014 Total Adult Non-Fiction Total Adult Fiction Total Juvenile 650 million 635 million 770 million
  4. 4. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 4 UK GENRE BREAKDOWN Children’s has grown from 24% to 35% of total market Nielsen BookScan 44% 32% 24% 2004 Adult Non- Fiction Adult Fiction Children's 38% 34% 28% 2010 Adult Non- Fiction Adult Fiction Children's 37% 28% 35% 2014 Adult Non- Fiction Adult Fiction Children's 204 million 181 million 229 million
  5. 5. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 5 Adult Fiction 0 50 100 150 200 250 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Millions Mass Market Pbk Trade Paperback Hardback PRINT BOOKS BY FORMAT In Adult Fiction, hardback sales down less than paperback since 2009 Adult Non-Fiction Nielsen BookScan 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Millions
  6. 6. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 6 Quarterly ebook sales by genre 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 Millions Religious Fiction Bibles Juvenile Non-Fiction Other Religion Non-Fiction Juvenile Fiction Non-Fiction Fiction US EBOOKS BY BROAD SECTOR In latest quarter, adult fiction accounts for 65% of ebook sales PubTrack Digital US
  7. 7. FICTION
  8. 8. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 8 Adult Fiction by category, volume sales 0 50 100 150 200 250 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Millions Western Action Adventure Occult/Psychological/Horror Science Fiction Religion Fantasy Classics Graphic Novels Mystery/Detective Suspense/Thrillers Romance General Fiction LONG TERM CHANGE IN US FICTION Comparing Fiction in print in the pre- and post-ebook world Nielsen BookScan
  9. 9. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 9 FICTION TRENDS IN TOP CATEGORIES Fantasy has seen largest decline since 2009 Nielsen BookScan 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Millions General Fiction Romance Suspense/Thrillers Mystery/Detective Graphic Novels Fantasy -46% -20% -30% -40% -27% -58%
  10. 10. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 10 24% 10% 10% 9%6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 3% 1% 1% 0%0% 0%0%0%0%0% 0% 0% 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% 2014 Romance Mystery & Detective Thrillers Suspense Literary Fantasy General Contemporary Women FICTION EBOOKS BY CATEGORY Romance started off as highest in the format and has just gotten bigger over the years 19% 13% 15% 6%6% 8% 8% 3% 4% 3% 1% 1% 0% 4% 0% 2% 1%1% 0%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% 2010 Share of fiction ebook sales, volume PubTrack Digital US
  11. 11. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 11 US volume sales, adult fiction THREE MAINSTAY FICTION AUTHORS Have ebooks affected their print sales? Nielsen BookScan/PubTrack Digital US Aggregated unit data for three mainstay – (consistent annual output over the long term). “Pre-ebook” print 3 years 2008 – 2010 “Post-ebook” print 3 years 2012 – 2014 “ebook” 3 years 2012 – 2014
  12. 12. NON-FICTION
  13. 13. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 13 Adult Non-Fiction by category, volume sales 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Millions House & Home/Gardening Computers Humor Art/Architecture/Design/Photography Travel Performing Arts Crafts/Hobbies/Antiques/Games Self Help History/Law/Political Science Cooking/Entertaining Business/Economics Health/Fitness/Medicine/Sports Biography/Autobiography/Memoir General Non-Fiction Reference Religion/Bibles DECLINE IN US NON-FICTION LED BY REFERENCE Market decline pre-dates ebook transition Nielsen BookScan
  14. 14. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 14 SINCE 2007… Nielsen BookScan Travel 50% Reference 37% Religion/Bibles 43% Cooking/Entertaining 11%
  15. 15. JUVENILE
  16. 16. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 16 All Juvenile by category, volume sales IN SPITE OF POST-2009 DIP, JUVENILE SALES UP! 2014 had highest reported sales since records began Nielsen BookScan 0 50 100 150 200 250 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Millions Social Situations/Family/Health (NF) Concepts (NF) Holidays/Festivals/Religion (NF) Biographies/Autobiographies Animals (NF) Education/Reference/Language Holidays/Festivals/Religion Concepts Animals Classics History/Sports/People/Places (NF) Games/Activities/Hobbies History/Sports/People/Places Social Situations/Family/Health Science Fiction/Fantasy/Magic General
  17. 17. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 17 JUVENILE FICTION Nielsen BookScan 38% 17% 14%8% 8% 5% 4% 6% 2004 General Science Fiction/Fantasy/Magic Social Situations/Family/Health History/Sports/People/Plac es Classics Animals Concepts Holidays/Festivals/Religion 30% 29% 16% 7% 7% 4% 3% 4% 2009 General Science Fiction/Fantasy/Magic Social Situations/Family/Health History/Sports/People/Pla ces Classics Animals Concepts Holidays/Festivals/Religion 30% 26% 16%8% 5% 5% 5% 5% 2014 General Science Fiction/Fantasy/Magic Social Situations/Family/Health History/Sports/People/Place s Classics Animals Concepts Holidays/Festivals/Religion 109 million 177 million 163 million 2014 sales were up 62% on 2004, 8% on 2009 and 12% on 2013.
  18. 18. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 18 HIGHEST POST-EBOOK PRINT GROWTH CATEGORIES … Nielsen BookScan 2004 2009 2014 Religion/Bibles Juvenile Non-Fiction 9% 53% 8% 44% 28% Juvenile Fiction 49% Performing Arts 5% 12%
  19. 19. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 19 POST EBOOK DECLINE DOMINATED BY FICTION Nielsen BookScan 2004 2009 2014 Fantasy General Fiction Mystery/Detective Travel 43% 58% 34% 46% 18% 40% 10% 37% Craft/Hobbies/Games 16% 33%
  20. 20. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 20 BOOK STORE OF THE FUTURE … DESIGNED TO INSPIRE
  21. 21. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 21 … AND TO HAVE FUN
  22. 22. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 22 … DURING THE DAY
  23. 23. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 23 …OR AT NIGHT
  24. 24. January 2015 jonathan.nowell@nielsen.com

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