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Benedict Evans - Mobile Is Eating the World


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Benedict Evans of Enders Analysis in London tracks the big companies that manage so much of the environment and ecosystem in which publishers operate. In this presentation, he will review the strategies of Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft, with a special focus on the aspects of their activities that affect book publishers. Then Evans will talk about how publishers can best take advantage of the opportunities these companies make available while avoiding the pitfalls of dancing with partners who dwarf the publishing industry—let alone any single player—in size.

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Benedict Evans - Mobile Is Eating the World

  1. 1. MOBILE IS EATINGTHEWORLDPresented at BEA, May 2013Benedict Evans@benedictevansEnders Analysis
  2. 2. 0501001502002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Global annual unit sales (m)Corporate PCs Consumer PCs TabletsThe state of PCsSource: Gartner, IDC, Enders Analysis2
  3. 3. 02004006008002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Global annual unit sales (m)Corporate PCs Consumer PCs Tablets Smart phonesSmart phones are exploding3 Source: Gartner, IDC, Enders Analysis
  4. 4. 05001,0001,5002,0002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Global annual unit sales (m)Corporate PCs Consumer PCs Tablets Smart phones All mobile phones4More mobile growth comingSource: Gartner, IDC, Enders Analysis
  5. 5. 02505007501,0001,2501,5002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013eGlobal annual unit sales (m)PCs Smartphones and tabletsSource: Enders Analysis5The future is mobile
  6. 6. The world in 201701,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000Population Adults Literate adults Mobile Smart phones PCs Tablets2017 forecast base (m)Source: GSMA,World Bank, Enders Analysis62012 Growth to 2017
  7. 7. • Mobile was always much bigger than tech, but always separate• Smartphones mean theTechnology and Mobile worlds merge• Internet and Media are being dragged along• Tablets accelerate the change• This is changing everythingFundamental change7
  8. 8. Fundamental change in scalePC industry• 350m PCs sold in 2012• 1.6bn units in use• Replaced every 4-5 years• SharedMobile industry• 1.7bn phones sold in 2012• 3.2bn mobile users• Replaced every 2 years• One per person8
  9. 9. Fundamental change in usePC internet• Shared, or used at work• Semi-portable at best• Web and web searchMobile internet• Personal• Taken everywhere• Web, web search, apps,social, location, serviceintegration, prediction,APIs,image recognition, NFC...9
  10. 10. 0255075100Mar-2009 Sep-2009 Mar-2010 Sep-2010 Mar-2011 Sep-2011 Mar-2012 Sep-2012 Mar-2013Microsoft share of connected device unit sales (%)Source: Enders Analysis10The irrelevance of Microsoft
  11. 11. 0255075100Units Revenue Operating ProfitGlobal handset industry share, Q1 2013 (%)Apple Samsung All otherSource:Apple, Samsung, Enders Analysis11Dominance of Apple & Samsung
  12. 12. Industry scaleMobile networksAdvertisingMobile phonesPCsAppleBooksOnline advertisingAmazonGoogleRecorded musicFacebook0 250 500 750 1,000 1,2502012 global revenue ($bn)Source: Zenith,Apple,Amazon, Google (excludes Motorola Mobility), Facebook, Enders Analysis12
  13. 13. 015304560Jun-2010 Dec-2010 Jun-2011 Dec-2011 Jun-2012 Dec-2012Global unit sales (m)Laptops Desktops TabletsTablets overtaking PCs13 Source: Gartner, IDC, Enders Analysis
  14. 14. 01020304050Jun-2010 Dec-2010 Jun-2011 Dec-2011 Jun-2012 Dec-2012Global unit sales (m)iPad Branded Android Kindle Fire Nexus120m tablets in 2012 - 66m iPadsSource:Apple, Google,Asus, Enders Analysis14
  15. 15. • Well over 200m tablets will be sold in 2013• Driven by size and price - 7” screens, $300 and (far below)• A flood of cheap generic Chinese Androids - perhaps 125munits in China alone this year, with prices under $150• Not clear these compete directly with Apple, Samsung &GoogleTablets in 201315
  16. 16. 0255075100Jan 2009 Dec 2009 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012US Google search volume (indexed)kindle kindle fire nookWeakening interest in ereadersSource: Google16
  17. 17. iPad dominates use everywhere020406080100US UK Germany France Japan ChinaShare of tablet web traffic, February 2013 (%)iPad Android Kindle Fire NookSource:Adobe17
  18. 18. Amazon-100102030405060701995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Annual results ($bn)Revenue Net incomeSource:Amazon18
  19. 19. 0246810Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13Amazon North American revenue ($bn)Media revenue General merchandise & other revenueSource:Amazon1921st Century Sears Roebuck
  20. 20. 0%1%2%4%5%6%7%2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Ecommerce as % US retail revenueMuch more ecommerce to comeSource: BLS, Enders Analysis20
  21. 21. ‘Four horsemen’Apple Google Facebook Amazon21
  22. 22. 0200400600800Mar-10 Sept-10 Mar-11 Sept-11 Mar-12 Sept-12 Mar-13Active users (m)Apple iOS Google Android Facebook mobile users Amazon accounts22 Source:Apple, Google, Facebook,Amazon, Enders AnalysisEcosystem sizes
  23. 23. • Apple and Google’s Android have won• Unlikely that other platforms will be relevant (WindowsPhone, Blackberry, other newer efforts)• But share of value and use between Apple and Android is fluid• Google’s control of Android is partial - Amazon Kindle,Chinese Android, Samsung intentions unclear• Facebook and Amazon trying to extract value23Platform wars
  24. 24. 24For Apple, theecosystem is whatsells hardwareFor Amazon, Googleand Facebook, theexperience on thephone is what drivesengagement with alltheir servicesEcosystem is the key leveragepoint