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BEA2014 -Understanding the Global Book Market & How it will Change

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Today, all businesses in the publishing ecosystem need data. Big data and small data chunks provide publishers, booksellers, service providers and others with a deeper insight into the market and a grasp of key trends. Nielsen Book the leading market research company in the industry worldwide presents a global market overview for the book industry – highlighting key trends across the world with emphasis on the US market. This deep dive data presentation – both print and digital - from across the Nielsen business lines will include; consumer confidence, consumer research, and future trends in the book market. Information discussed will focus on book publishing, sales and marketing strategy and up-coming global trends. Quantified data from Nielsen in consumer purchasing, buying habits and devices used, will help BEA attendees gain a greater understanding of the industry and its highs and lows.

BEA2014 -Understanding the Global Book Market & How it will Change

  1. 1. Jonathan Nowell BookExpo America 28 May 2014 UNDERSTANDING THE GLOBAL BOOK MARKET AND HOW IT WILL CHANGE Booth 1113
  2. 2. Copyright©2013TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 2 AGENDA • DATA SOURCES • INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT • PRINT TRENDS (YEAR-TO-DATE DATA TO 19th APRIL 2014) • E-BOOKS IN THE US • E-BOOKS IN THE UK (DATA TO 19th JANUARY 2014) • THOUGHTS ABOUT THE FUTURE
  3. 3. Copyright©2013TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 3 • Nielsen’s BookScan • EPOS sales data supplied by retailers in 10 countries worldwide • Nielsen’s Books & Consumers US survey • Survey of 6,000 book buyers per month, selected from a nationally representative sample by age, gender, location • Online questionnaire of ~75 questions • Nielsen Insight into the UK E-book Consumer Market: May 2014 • Data from Kantar panel of 15,000 13-79 year olds, nationally representative of the UK population • Online questionnaire collecting monthly book buying data MAIN DATA SOURCES
  4. 4. INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT
  5. 5. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 5 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TO Q1-2014 Asia-Pac lead the way Russia Brazil US Northern Europe Southern Europe and France
  6. 6. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 6 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 121 106 100 100 89 87 82 82 61 45 Global average 96 Q1 2014 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX Base : All respondents n=31972 Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence & Spending Intentions
  7. 7. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 7 BOOKSCAN’S TEN INTERNATIONAL TERRITORIES A combined total of over 1 billion print book sales measured in 2013
  8. 8. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 8 ? -6.4% -1.1% -4.4%-6.7% -10.2% 1.1% 0.03% 9.5% -9.6% BOOKSCAN’S TEN INTERNATIONAL TERRITORIES As of April, three territories showing year to date growth in print book volume sales
  9. 9. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 9 -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% Adult Fiction Non-Fiction Children's Total ES IT ROI UK EUROPEAN GENRE PERFORMANCE, 2014YTD VS 2013YTD Nielsen BookScan
  10. 10. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 10 -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% Adult Fiction Non-Fiction Children's Total SA IND NZ AUS US INTERNATIONAL GENRE PERFORMANCE, 2014YTD VS 2013YTD Nielsen BookScan
  11. 11. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 11 Volume 2014YTD 41% 29% 26% 4% F T S Y BRAZIL BY PRODUCT CLASS 28% 27% 41% 4% F T S Y Value 2014YTD Nielsen BookScan 23% 18% 8%T6 Religion 5% F2 Y2 Y5 T6 T17 S5 S4 F1 T4 T1 S2 S1 T9 T2 T5 Volume 2014YTD by mid-level product class Volume YTD: 12 million Value YTD: R$500 million Avg. Weekly Sales 2014: 752k, R$31million
  12. 12. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 12 BRAZIL TOP 20 JULY 2013-APRIL 2014 Nielsen BookScan Pos Title Author Publisher ASP 1 Kairos: O Tempo De Deus Rossi, Padre Marcelo Globo Livros R$16.54 2 Nada A Perder: Meus Desafios Diante Do Impossivel - Livro 2 Macedo, Edir Editora Planeta do Brasil R$27.48 3 A Culpa E Das Estrelas Green, John Intrinseca R$27.44 4 Inferno Brown, Dan Editora Sextante R$34.75 5 Destrua Este Diario Smith, Keri Intrinseca R$23.12 6 Cinquenta Tons De Cinza James, E.L. Intrinseca R$24.24 7 1889 Gomes, Laurentino Globo Livros R$38.49 8 Livro - Dona Benta: Comer Bem - Edicao Especial Completa Nacional, Editora IBEP R$20.07 9 Cidades De Papel Green, John Intrinseca R$27.14 10 Silencio Das Montanhas, O Hosseini, Khaled Globo Livros R$34.00 11 Cinquenta Tons De Liberdade James, E.L. Intrinseca R$23.90 12 Teorema Katherine, O Green, John Intrinseca R$27.27 13 Cinquenta Tons Mais Escuros James, E.L. Intrinseca R$24.05 14 Pequeno Principe, O Saint-Exupery, Antoine Ediouro Livros R$19.61 15 Casa de Hades, A Riordan, Rick Intrinseca R$35.24 16 Lado Bom Da Vida, O Quick, Matthew Intrinseca R$22.46 17 Casamento Blindado Cardoso, Renato & Cristiane Ediouro Livros R$23.53 18 Eu Nao Consigo Emagrecer Dukan, Pierre Editorial Record R$27.49 19 Quem E Voce Alasca? Green, John WMF Martins Fontes R$28.36 20 Ladrao De Raios, O – Vol 1 Riordan, Rick Intrinseca R$23.51
  13. 13. PRINT TRENDS
  14. 14. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 14 Australia Volume Sales 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Adult Fiction Trade Non-Fiction Specialist Non-Fiction Children's Total Millions 2012YTD 2013YTD 2014YTD AUSTRALIA – RECENT TRENDS Fiction only broad genre in decline Nielsen BookScan
  15. 15. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 15 India Volume Sales 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Adult Fiction Trade Non-Fiction Specialist Non-Fiction Children's Total Millions 2012YTD 2013YTD 2014YTD INDIA – RECENT TRENDS Specialist Non-Fiction leads growth Nielsen BookScan
  16. 16. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 16 TCM Value Sales £0 £50 £100 £150 £200 £250 £300 £350 £400 £450 £500 2005YTD 2006YTD 2007YTD 2008YTD 2009YTD 2010YTD 2011YTD 2012YTD 2013YTD 2014YTD MillionsUK LONGER TERM TRENDS Year-on-year decline in TCM slowing so far in 2014 Nielsen BookScan -1.4%
  17. 17. Copyright©2013TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 17 2014 UK BESTSELLERS Nielsen BookScan 2014YTD 2013YTD
  18. 18. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 18 Adult Fiction TCM Sales £0 £20 £40 £60 £80 £100 £120 £140 Millions UK LONGER TERM SECTOR TRENDS Adult Trade Non-Fiction TCM Sales Nielsen BookScan £0 £50 £100 £150 £200 £250 Millions -6.3% -4.1%
  19. 19. Copyright©2013TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 19 FOOD & DRINK LEADS YEAR-ON-YEAR DECLINE IN TRADE NON-FICTION AT -15.1% But Biographies with Atlas, Maps & Travel are leading the long term decline £0 £20 £40 £60 £80 £100 £120 £140 £160 £180 £200 2009YTD 2010YTD 2011YTD 2012YTD 2013YTD 2014YTD £18 £19 £24 £19 £21 £18 £25 £22 £21 £19 £17 £17 £18 £17 £17 £17 £16 £16 £24 £19 £20 £18 £16 £16 £15 £14 £14 £14 £13 £13 Millions T18 Fiction Related Items T2 Dictionaries & Reference T7 Politics & Government T10 Mind, Body & Spirit T12 Transport T15 Sport T13 Humour, Trivia & Puzzles T6 Religion T3 Literature, Poetry & Criticism T17 Personal Development T8 The World / Ideas / Culture: General Interest T9 Family, Health & Relationships T11 Leisure & Lifestyle T5 History & Military T4 Biographies & Autobiographies T1 The Arts T14 Atlases, Maps & Travel T16 Food & Drink
  20. 20. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 20 Adult Specialist Non-Fiction TCM Sales £0 £10 £20 £30 £40 £50 £60 £70 Millions UK LONGER TERM SECTOR TRENDS Children’s (Ex. Y5) TCM Sales Nielsen BookScan £0 £10 £20 £30 £40 £50 £60 £70 £80 Millions -1.3% +8.7%
  21. 21. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 21 US Volume Sales 0 50 100 150 200 250 2005YTD 2006YTD 2007YTD 2008YTD 2009YTD 2010YTD 2011YTD 2012YTD 2013YTD 2014YTD Millions US LONGER TERM TRENDS Includes Walmart sales as of 2013 Nielsen BookScan +0.03%
  22. 22. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 22 US Volume Sales by Product Class 2013YTD 42% 25% 26% 7% Adult Non-Fiction Juvenile Fiction Adult Fiction Juvenile Non- Fiction US MARKET BY GENRE Juvenile Fiction sales have overtaken Adult Fiction in 2014 so far 41% 28% 23% 8% Adult Non-Fiction Juvenile Fiction Adult Fiction Juvenile Non- Fiction US Volume Sales by Product Class 2014YTD Nielsen BookScan
  23. 23. Copyright©2013TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 23 2014 US BESTSELLERS DOMINATED BY JUVENILE FICTION Nielsen BookScan 2014YTD 2013YTD
  24. 24. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 24 US Volume Sales 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Adult Non-Fiction Juvenile Fiction Adult Fiction Juvenile Non-Fiction Millions Backlist Current US MARKET BY PUBLICATION DATE Adult Fiction is the only category that skews toward newer releases Nielsen BookScan
  25. 25. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 25 US Volume Sales by Publisher 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Millions 2013YTD 2014YTD TOP 10 US PUBLISHERS IN 2014 SO FAR Four of the top publishers in growth on 2013 Nielsen BookScan +3.1% +12.2% +8.8% +8.4%
  26. 26. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 26 US Volume Sales – Adult Fiction 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2005YTD 2006YTD 2007YTD 2008YTD 2009YTD 2010YTD 2011YTD 2012YTD 2013YTD 2014YTD Millions US LONGER TERM SECTOR TRENDS Includes Walmart sales as of 2013 Nielsen BookScan -13.1%
  27. 27. Copyright©2013TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 27 2014 US FICTION BESTSELLERS Nielsen BookScan 2014YTD 2013YTD
  28. 28. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 28 US Volume Sales – Adult Fiction 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Millions 2013YTD 2014YTD US ADULT FICTION BY CATEGORY Graphic Novels and Westerns are the only categories in growth Nielsen BookScan
  29. 29. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 29 Percent Growth in Volume Sales GRAPHIC NOVELS SEE INTERNATIONAL GROWTH Eight out of ten territories have increased sales so far in 2014 Nielsen BookScan 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% ES IN US ROI UK AUS IT NZ
  30. 30. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 30 US Volume Sales – General Fiction -35.1% +11.1% -13.7% +42.8% +14.1% Literary Historical General Contemporary Women Short Stories (single author) Sagas Humorous Family Life Coming of Age Erotica African American / Urban Media Tie-In Anthologies (multiple authors) Urban African American / Contemporary Women Biographical Political Gay Alternative History Dystopian Native American & Aboriginal African American / General African American / Historical Mashups Amish & Mennonite Cultural Heritage Lesbian Sports Holidays African American / Erotica Satire Sea Stories US GENERAL FICTION BY BISAC DESCRIPTION Literary and Historical account for almost half of General Fiction sales 2014YTD Nielsen BookScan
  31. 31. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 31 US Volume Sales – Adult Non-Fiction 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2005YTD 2006YTD 2007YTD 2008YTD 2009YTD 2010YTD 2011YTD 2012YTD 2013YTD 2014YTD Millions US LONGER TERM SECTOR TRENDS Includes Walmart sales as of 2013 Nielsen BookScan -1.3%
  32. 32. Copyright©2013TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 32 2014 US NON-FICTION BESTSELLERS Nielsen BookScan 2014YTD 2013YTD
  33. 33. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 33 US Volume Sales – Adult Non-Fiction 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Millions 2013YTD 2014YTD US ADULT NON-FICTION BY CATEGORY Already a top category, Religion/Bibles grew 8.3% on 2013YTD Nielsen BookScan
  34. 34. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 34 US Volume Sales – Religion/Bibles 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 Millions 2013YTD 2014YTD TOP IMPRINTS IN RELIGION/BIBLES Thomas Nelson up 34% year-on-year; only two imprints of top ten in decline Nielsen BookScan
  35. 35. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 35 Percent Growth in US Volume Sales – Self-Help -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Personal Growth / General Personal Growth / Success Motivational & Inspirational Creativity Personal Growth / Happiness General Personal Growth / Self-Esteem Spiritual Sexual Instruction Mood Disorders / General GROWTH IN SELF-HELP BOOKS More than half of top categories up on 2013 Nielsen BookScan
  36. 36. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 36 US Volume Sales – All Juvenile 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2005YTD 2006YTD 2007YTD 2008YTD 2009YTD 2010YTD 2011YTD 2012YTD 2013YTD 2014YTD Millions US LONGER TERM SECTOR TRENDS Includes Walmart sales as of 2013 Nielsen BookScan +11.9%
  37. 37. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 37 YTD Volume Sales in Y Children’s, Young Adult & Educational/All Juvenile (US) 0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 US UK AUS IN ROI 2014YTD 2013YTD GROWTH IN INTERNATIONAL CHILDREN’S MARKET Five territories up year-on-year in Children’s sector Nielsen BookScan
  38. 38. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 38 US Volume Sales – Juvenile Fiction 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2011YTD 2012YTD 2013YTD 2014YTD Millions Holidays/Festivals/Religion Concepts Animals Classics History/Sports/People/Places Social Situations/Family/Health Science Fiction/Fantasy/Magic General US JUVENILE FICTION BY CATEGORY Science Fiction/Fantasy/Magic up 47% on 2013 Nielsen BookScan
  39. 39. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 40 US Volume Sales – All Juvenile 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Millions 2013YTD 2014YTD DIVERGENT CARRIES VERONICA ROTH TO TOP AUTHOR IN JUVENILE FICTION New entries in top ten for 2014: Roth, Green, Riggs, Zusak Nielsen BookScan
  40. 40. E-BOOKS IN THE US
  41. 41. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 42 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Jan-14 % Volume Value E-BOOK SHARE OF US BOOK PURCHASES Source: US Books & Consumers © Nielsen 2014 2014 data provisional and require caution
  42. 42. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 43 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Jan-14 % Adult fiction Adult NF Children's E-BOOK SHARE OF US BOOK PURCHASES, WITHIN CATEGORY: VOLUME Source: US Books & Consumers © Nielsen 2014 2014 data provisional and require caution
  43. 43. Copyright©2013TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 44 E-BOOK SHARE OF US BOOK PURCHASES WITHIN GENRE: VOLUME, Y/E JAN 2014 Source: US Books & Consumers © Nielsen 2014 35%+ Crime SF Romance 25-34% Thriller General fiction Historical fiction Fantasy Horror Action/adventure Christian fiction Children’s fiction True crime 10-24% Biography Fitness/health Religion/MBS Sport Humour IT/business YA fiction Literary fiction History Travel Cookery Self help Art Children’s NF <10% Graphic novel Bibles Science/nature Home/garden Picture books Early learning
  44. 44. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 45 44% 70% 5% 26% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Jan-14 Smartphone Tablet eReader HOUSEHOLD OWNERSHIP AMONG US BOOK BUYERS Source: US Books & Consumers © Nielsen 2014
  45. 45. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 46 68 35 42 4 7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Jan-14 % eReader Tablet SmartPhone DEVICE SHARE OF US E-BOOK PURCHASES Source: US Books & Consumers © Nielsen 2014
  46. 46. E-BOOKS IN THE UK
  47. 47. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 48 Cumulative Volume sales of e-books among the UK population aged 13-79 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 23-Jan-11 20-Feb-11 20-Mar-11 17-Apr-11 15-May-11 12-Jun-11 10-Jul-11 07-Aug-11 04-Sep-11 02-Oct-11 30-Oct-11 27-Nov-11 25-Dec-11 22-Jan-12 19-Feb-12 18-Mar-12 15-Apr-12 13-May-12 10-Jun-12 08-Jul-12 05-Aug-12 02-Sep-12 30-Sep-12 28-Oct-12 25-Nov-12 23-Dec-12 20-Jan-13 17-Feb-13 17-Mar-13 14-Apr-13 13-May-13 09-Jun-13 07-Jul-13 04-Aug-13 01-Sep-13 29-Sep-13 27-Oct-13 24-Nov-13 22-Dec-13 19-Jan-14 125.1m Fiction Non-fiction Children's GROWTH AND COMPOSITION OF UK E-BOOK MARKET, JAN 2011- JAN 2014 Nielsen Insight into the E-book Consumer Market
  48. 48. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 50 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 23-Jan-11 20-Feb-11 20-Mar-11 17-Apr-11 15-May-11 12-Jun-11 10-Jul-11 07-Aug-11 04-Sep-11 02-Oct-11 30-Oct-11 27-Nov-11 25-Dec-11 22-Jan-12 19-Feb-12 18-Mar-12 15-Apr-12 13-May-12 10-Jun-12 08-Jul-12 05-Aug-12 02-Sep-12 30-Sep-12 28-Oct-12 25-Nov-12 23-Dec-12 20-Jan-13 17-Feb-13 17-Mar-13 14-Apr-13 13-May-13 09-Jun-13 07-Jul-13 04-Aug-13 01-Sep-13 29-Sep-13 27-Oct-13 24-Nov-13 22-Dec-13 19-Jan-14 UK MARKET PENETRATION OF E-BOOKS Percentage of the UK population aged 13-79 that have bought an e-book: Jan 2011- 2014 22% Nielsen Insight into the E-book Consumer Market: May 2014
  49. 49. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 51 Numbers of individuals aged 13-79 entering the e-book market: period-on-period growth in population number terms 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 Jan11 Feb11 Mar11 Apr11 May11 Jun11 Jul11 Aug11 Sep11 Oct11(1) Oct11(2) Nov11 Dec11 Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12 Jul12 Aug12 Sep12(1) Sep12(2) Oct12 Nov12 Dec12 Jan13 Feb13 Mar13 Apr13 May13 Jun13 Jul13 Aug13 Sep13(1) Sep13(2) Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep14(1) Sep14(2) Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 New buyers projected to fall below 100k throughout 2014 Nielsen Insight into the E-book Consumer Market: May 2014 Forecasted E-book Adoption GROWTH IN E-BOOK BUYERS SLOWING
  50. 50. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 52 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Jan-14 % Volume Value E-BOOK SHARE OF UK BOOK PURCHASES Source: UK Books & Consumers © Nielsen 2014 2014 data provisional and require caution
  51. 51. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 53 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Jan-14 % Adult fiction Adult NF Children's E-BOOK SHARE OF UK BOOK PURCHASES, WITHIN CATEGORY: VOLUME Source: UK Books & Consumers © Nielsen 2014 2014 data provisional and require caution
  52. 52. Copyright©2013TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 54 E-BOOK SHARE OF UK BOOK PURCHASES WITHIN GENRE: VOLUME, Y/E JAN 2014 Source: UK Books & Consumers © Nielsen 2014 45%+ Crime Fantasy Romance 25-44% Thriller General fiction Historical fiction Erotic fiction Horror Classic fiction Sci fi True crime Self help 10-24% Biography Fitness/diet Religion/MBS Sport Humour IT YA fiction <10% Graphic novel Food & drink Science/nature Travel Art Business Home/garden Picture books Children’s NF Early learning
  53. 53. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 55 46 61 14 51 21 24 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % Smartphone Tablet eReader HOUSEHOLD OWNERSHIP AMONG UK BOOK BUYERS Source: UK Books & Consumers © Nielsen 2014
  54. 54. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 56 84 47 40 5 8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Jan-14 % eReader Tablet SmartPhone DEVICE SHARE OF UK E-BOOK PURCHASES Source: UK Books & Consumers © Nielsen 2014
  55. 55. THOUGHTS ABOUT THE FUTURE
  56. 56. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 58 CHANGING FACE OF THE AMERICAN CONSUMER With important implications on the future … URBANIZATION & INDUSTRIALIZATION DECLINING BIRTH RATES AGING POPULATION Uneven Population Growth Older Consumers With New Needs Changes in Per Household Spending Immigration & Growth in Ethnic Families Declining % of HHs with Children
  57. 57. Copyright©2013TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 59 KEY ATTRIBUTES OF TWO SPENDING POWERHOUSES Hardwired Untethered By Appointment Always On Listeners Sharers Physical Virtual BOOMERS MILLENNIALS
  58. 58. Copyright©2013TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 61 DO YOU KNOW YOUR CATEGORY’S ENTHUSIAST? Source: FreshFacts® Shopper Insights powered by Spire, 52 weeks ending 8/10/13 1% of muffin buyers 23% of muffin sales account for
  59. 59. Copyright©2013TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 62 DO YOU KNOW YOUR BOOK ENTHUSIAST? Source: FreshFacts® Shopper Insights powered by Spire, 52 weeks ending 8/10/13 1% of book buyers 15% of book sales account for
  60. 60. Copyright©2013TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 63 THE WORLD IS YOUR OYSTER Source: BBC • 2.0bn people learning English • 600m as first language
  61. 61. Copyright©2013TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 64 Our brains process 11,000,000 bits of sensory information every second. But our conscious minds can only handle about 40 bits per second. That’s a selection ratio of 0.000004%. What happens to the other 10,999,960 bits of information? Consumer brains process them subconsciously. The majority of processing is subconscious
  62. 62. Copyright©2013TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 65 TWO THINGS WE HAVE LEARNED FROM NEUROSCIENCE Milliseconds matter We make decisions differently than we thought
  63. 63. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 66 If this is true, our goal is to persuade. TRADITIONAL VIEW THINK ACT FEEL If this is true, our goal is to engage emotion. EMERGING VIEW (FROM COGNITIVE SCIENCE) FEEL ACT THINK Rationalize Our Decisions EMOTIONS LEAD, REASON FOLLOWS
  64. 64. Copyright©2013TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 68 SUMMARY – OPTIMISTIC!! • Global consumer confidence is patchy but improving • English language markets are huge and digital makes them reachable • Traditional book markets are flat – some in decline • Emerging markets are growing fast • ebooks will continue to grow – but pace will be wildly different in each market • Consumer $ is moving from boomer to millennial – maximise boomer spend now! • We will need to publish and sell books differently … as we compete for consumer time and $ …
  65. 65. Jonathan Nowell BookExpo America 28 May 2014 Booth 1113 jonathan.nowell@nielsen.com jonathan.stolper@nielsen.com charlie.friscia@nielsen.com

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