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Sustainable Coastal Development: Finding Certainty in Uncertain Times
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Sustainable Coastal Development: Finding Certainty in Uncertain Times

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Mayor Tom Murphy, Senior Resident Fellow, Urban Land Institute

Mayor Tom Murphy, Senior Resident Fellow, Urban Land Institute

Published in Education , Business , Technology
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  • Source: Green Building Certification Institute, as of July 1, 2010

Transcript

  • 1. Finding Certainty in Uncertain Times
  • 2. 1-2 December 2009 America’s First Road Trip Horatio Nelson Jackson, Sewall K. Crocker & Bud Source: www.pbs.org
  • 3. Five Converging Forces 1. Globalization 2. Climate Change 3. Technological Innovation 4. Infrastructure Needs 5. Demographics
  • 4. 1-2 December 2009 Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review, March 2010 1. Globalization United States Petroleum Consumption, Production, and Net Imports, 1960–2008 ¹ Petroleum products supplied used as an approximation for consumption. ² Crude oil and natural gas plant liquids production.
  • 5. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2008 2. Climate Change US Carbon Emissions by Sector, 2008
  • 6. 1-2 December 2009 3. Technological Innovation Cell Phone and Internet Usage Worldwide Source: United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Report., CIA World Factbook • In 1990 12.4 Million people worldwide had Cell Phones….by 2009 the number had reached 4.6 Billion. • In 1990 3 Million people worldwide were Internet Users…by 2010 the number has reached 1.8 Billion.
  • 7. 1-2 December 2009 4. Infrastructure Needs Aging and Stressed Infrastructure • ASCE: U.S. roads, public transit, aviation and water systems in bad shape • Estimate: $2.2 trillion needed over five years to repair the nation’s infrastructure • Local infrastructure decisions are key
  • 8. 1-2 December 2009 Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau 5. Demographics US Population 1970-2050 • Pent up Demand
  • 9. But Demand Suppressed Today • Need 1.5+ million homes a year • Today’s household formation 25% of normal – 2006/7: 1.6 million – 2008/9: <0.4 million – A 75% drop in two years • Today’s low housing starts sufficient to meet new household formation
  • 10. • Late teens to early 30s - 83 million • The largest generation in US history • At the prime household formation age The Good News
  • 11. Their Challenges • Incomes down last decade – Men: Down 23%, – Women: Down 3% • Over 30% are unemployed • Carrying large school debts
  • 12. • They will move into the housing market but what can they afford? • They have new attitudes to homeownership – See others trapped by “underwater” homes • RCLCO – they want to live in urban areas • Bottom line: •  Will rent for years What will they do when jobs come back?
  • 13. Immigrants • 40 million - 13% of households • Immigrants who arrive between 2005-2050 and their descendants will drive 82% of population growth
  • 14. Where will the homeownership rate go? Source: Time Magazine, September 6, 2010
  • 15. • Great demand for housing • Infill - town centers & central cities • Strong demand for rental housing • Strong demand for homeownership but – smaller, affordable, compact homes • Plenty of opportunities, but not the same as before! The Bottom Line:
  • 16. Trends in Green Real Estate • USGBC is certifying 870,000 sq. feet of LEED space, every day • There are now over 1 million Energy Star Homes and over 9000 Energy Star Commercial buildings • Wal-Mart has announced that all new stores will meet LEED standards
  • 17. Local & State Action • 33 states representing 70% of US population are developing climate action plans. • 21 states have set carbon reduction targets. • 1060 US Mayors, representing over 100 million people have adopted the Kyoto Protocol. • US EPA is now regulating carbon Sources: Newsweek, US Conference of Mayors
  • 18. 564 921 2,176 4,562 13,095 15,347 23,919 33,443 65,008 131,137 143,874 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Cumulative LEED Accredited Professionals
  • 19. What Does a World Class City Look Like? Los Angeles Seattle Portland Tampa Baltimore
  • 20. 1-2 December 2009 Source: US Census Bureau Population Changes 1970-2020
  • 21. 1-2 December 2009 Central City Share of Metropolitan Residential Building Permits Source: EPA ** Share includes Riverside and San Bernardino Counties Average Share 1990-95 2003-08 2008 Seattle 11% 21% 31% Los Angeles** 11% 17% 25% Baltimore 2% 9% 19% Portland 9% 26% 38% Tampa 8% 15% 17%
  • 22. 1-2 December 2009 Infrastructure Investments What Can We Do? • Maintain and invest in existing infrastructure first. • Provide stable, adequate and dedicated funding for transit. • Link land use with transportation investments Seattle Light Rail
  • 23. 1-2 December 2009 Source: “Connecting People & Places: Multimodal Transportation and Regional Mobility in Tallahassee and the Capital Region”, Tallahassee-Leon County Department of Planning
  • 24. 1-2 December 2009 Source: “Connecting People & Places: Multimodal Transportation and Regional Mobility in Tallahassee and the Capital Region”, Tallahassee-Leon County Department of Planning
  • 25. 1-2 December 2009 Source: “Connecting People & Places: Multimodal Transportation and Regional Mobility in Tallahassee and the Capital Region”, Tallahassee-Leon County Department of Planning
  • 26. 1-2 December 2009 Regional Cooperation: Denver Bond Issue • In 2004, Fastrak Referendum • $2 Billion Bond Approval • 119 miles of light rail • 7 Counties & 32 Municipalities
  • 27. 1-2 December 2009 • Since 1971, 188 Municipalities & 7 Counties share 40% of their tax base Regional Cooperation: St. Paul/Minneapolis Tax-base Sharing
  • 28. Cities Must Consider Quality of Life and Employment Trends
  • 29. 1-2 December 2009 Employment by Industry, Percentage Change 1990-2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) INDUSTRY Seattle Los Angeles Baltimore Portland Tampa Mining Logging and Construction -50% N/A -18% -43% -17% Manufacturing -24% -50% -53% -15% -32% Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 17% -3% -5% 19% 0% Information 157% 11% 0% 37% 0% Financial Activities 5% -14% -7% 25% 37% Professional and Business Services 61% 7% 50% 61% 195% Education and Health Services Services 80% 37% 64% 76% 57% Leisure and Hospitality 46% 32% 22% 51% 13% Other Services 31% 3% 20% 34% 13% Government 36% 4% 6% 31% 35%
  • 30. 1-2 December 2009 The NEW Measure of Growth: Venture Capital, Start-Ups & University Research Investment Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers and National Venture Capital Association, Thomson Financial; The Center for Measuring University Performance at Arizona State In venture capital, here are the fastest-growing U.S. regions by companies and total and total investment dollars over 10 years. Number of companies companies Total investment (in millions) University Research Expenditures* 2007 1997 % change 2007 1997 % change 2007 Seattle 132 65 103% 1253.4 403.2 211% 966.8 Los Angeles 124 72 72% 1149.9 450.3 155% 1797.1 Washington Metroplex 180 105 71% 1282.2 558.2 130% 2867.6 Baltimore 32 N/A N/A 224.5 N/A N/A 2442.2 Portland 28 28 0% 251.0 124.6 101% 476.8 Tampa 9 N/A N/A 153.8 N/A N/A 272.7
  • 31. Quality of Life: Parks, Culture, Design and Education Getty Museum, Los Angeles Waterfront Park, Portland Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore Pike Place, Seattle
  • 32. New York City Homicides, 1960-2009 Sources: Police Department City of New York, CompStat; FBI Peak: 2245 Murders in 1990
  • 33. 1-2 December 2009 Lessons Learned
  • 34. 1. Leadership Navy Pier, Chicago
  • 35. 1-2 December 2009 2. Vision PNC Baseball Park, Pittsburgh
  • 36. 1-2 December 2009 3. Clear Public benefits/goals/values Olympic Sculpture Park, Seattle
  • 37. 1-2 December 2009 4. Institutional capacity Otterbein Neighborhood, Baltimore
  • 38. 1-2 December 2009 5. A transparent public process Pike Place Market, Seattle
  • 39. 1-2 December 2009 6. Financing A Financial Menu • CDBG (allocated through the City) • HOME (HUD) • Brownfield Economic Development Initiative Grants (BEDI): EDA (Public Works and Economic Development Program • EPA (Brownfield Assessment and Clean-Up grants) • Redevelopment Capital Assistance Program (RACP) • Business In Our sites (BIOS) • Industrial Sites Reuse Program (ISRP) • Infrastructure and Facilities Improvement Program (IFIP) • Infrastructure Development Program (IDP) • Housing Redevelopment Assistance Program (HRA) • URA and City Bonds • Tax Increment Financing (TIF) • Pittsburgh Development Fund (PDF) • Urban Development Fund (UDF) • Pittsburgh Business Growth Fund • Pennsylvania Industrial Development Authority Loans (PIDA) • Streetface Program • Community Development Investment Fund (CDIF) Pittsburgh Housing Construction Fund (PHCF) • Neighborhood Housing Program (NHP) • Housing Recovery Program (HRP) • Multi-Family Revenue Bond Program (MFRBP) • Rental Housing Development & Improvement Program (RHDIP) PNC Building, Pittsburgh
  • 40. 7. Land Control 1960s Inner Harbor, Baltimore-Today
  • 41. 1-2 December 2009 8. Design Excellence Convention Center, Pittsburgh Millennium Park, Chicago
  • 42. 1-2 December 2009 9. Trust and confidence One of many ribbon cuttings celebrating the success of a partnership
  • 43. 1-2 December 2009 “There is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle, than to initiate a new order of things. For the reformer has enemies in all those who profit by the old order, this luke-warmness arising partly from the fear of their adversaries who have the laws in their favor, and partly from the incredulity of mankind, who do not truly believe in anything new until they have had actual experience of it.” - Niccolo Machiavelli (1469-1527) Leadership