Mayor Tom Murphy, Senior Resident Fellow, Urban Land Institute

1. Finding Certainty
in Uncertain Times

2. 1-2 December 2009
America’s First Road Trip
Horatio Nelson Jackson, Sewall K. Crocker & Bud
Source: www.pbs.org

3. Five Converging Forces
1. Globalization
2. Climate Change
3. Technological Innovation
4. Infrastructure Needs
5. Demographics

4. 1-2 December 2009
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review, March 2010
1. Globalization
United States Petroleum Consumption, Production, and Net Imports,
1960–2008
¹ Petroleum products supplied used as an approximation for consumption.
² Crude oil and natural gas plant liquids production.

5. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2008
2. Climate Change
US Carbon Emissions by Sector, 2008

6. 1-2 December 2009
3. Technological Innovation
Cell Phone and Internet Usage Worldwide
Source: United Nations Development Programme’s Human
Development Report., CIA World Factbook
• In 1990 12.4 Million
people worldwide had Cell
Phones….by 2009 the
number had reached 4.6
Billion.
• In 1990 3 Million people
worldwide were Internet
Users…by 2010 the
number has reached 1.8
Billion.

7. 1-2 December 2009
4. Infrastructure Needs
Aging and Stressed Infrastructure
• ASCE: U.S. roads, public transit,
aviation and water systems in bad
shape
• Estimate: $2.2 trillion needed over
five years to repair the nation’s
infrastructure
• Local infrastructure decisions are
key

8. 1-2 December 2009
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau
5. Demographics
US Population 1970-2050
• Pent up Demand

9. But Demand Suppressed Today
• Need 1.5+ million homes a year
• Today’s household formation 25% of normal
– 2006/7: 1.6 million
– 2008/9: <0.4 million
– A 75% drop in two years
• Today’s low housing starts sufficient to meet new household
formation

10. • Late teens to early 30s - 83 million
• The largest generation in US history
• At the prime household formation age
The Good News

11. Their Challenges
• Incomes down last decade
– Men: Down 23%,
– Women: Down 3%
• Over 30% are unemployed
• Carrying large school debts

12. • They will move into the housing market but what can
they afford?
• They have new attitudes to homeownership
– See others trapped by “underwater” homes
• RCLCO – they want to live in urban areas
• Bottom line:
•  Will rent for years
What will they do when jobs come back?

13. Immigrants
• 40 million - 13% of households
• Immigrants who arrive between 2005-2050
and their descendants will drive 82% of
population growth

14. Where will the homeownership rate go?
Source: Time Magazine, September 6, 2010

15. • Great demand for housing
• Infill - town centers & central cities
• Strong demand for rental housing
• Strong demand for homeownership but
– smaller, affordable, compact homes
• Plenty of opportunities, but not the same as
before!
The Bottom Line:

16. Trends in Green Real Estate
• USGBC is certifying 870,000 sq. feet of LEED
space, every day
• There are now over 1 million Energy Star
Homes and over 9000 Energy Star
Commercial buildings
• Wal-Mart has announced that all new stores
will meet LEED standards

17. Local & State Action
• 33 states representing 70% of US population
are developing climate action plans.
• 21 states have set carbon reduction targets.
• 1060 US Mayors, representing over 100
million people have adopted the Kyoto
Protocol.
• US EPA is now regulating carbon
Sources: Newsweek, US Conference of Mayors

18. 564 921 2,176
4,562
13,095
15,347
23,919
33,443
65,008
131,137
143,874
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Cumulative LEED Accredited Professionals

19. What Does a World Class City Look Like?
Los Angeles
Seattle
Portland Tampa
Baltimore

20. 1-2 December 2009
Source: US Census Bureau
Population Changes
1970-2020

21. 1-2 December 2009
Central City Share of Metropolitan Residential
Building Permits
Source: EPA
** Share includes Riverside and San Bernardino Counties
Average Share
1990-95 2003-08 2008
Seattle 11% 21% 31%
Los Angeles** 11% 17% 25%
Baltimore 2% 9% 19%
Portland 9% 26% 38%
Tampa 8% 15% 17%

22. 1-2 December 2009
Infrastructure Investments
What Can We Do?
• Maintain and invest in existing infrastructure first.
• Provide stable, adequate and dedicated funding for
transit.
• Link land use with transportation investments
Seattle Light Rail

23. 1-2 December 2009
Source: “Connecting People & Places: Multimodal Transportation and Regional Mobility in
Tallahassee and the Capital Region”, Tallahassee-Leon County Department of Planning

24. 1-2 December 2009
Source: “Connecting People & Places: Multimodal Transportation and Regional Mobility in
Tallahassee and the Capital Region”, Tallahassee-Leon County Department of Planning

25. 1-2 December 2009
Source: “Connecting People & Places: Multimodal Transportation and Regional Mobility in
Tallahassee and the Capital Region”, Tallahassee-Leon County Department of Planning

26. 1-2 December 2009
Regional Cooperation:
Denver Bond Issue
• In 2004, Fastrak Referendum
• $2 Billion Bond Approval
• 119 miles of light rail
• 7 Counties & 32 Municipalities

27. 1-2 December 2009
• Since 1971, 188 Municipalities & 7 Counties
share 40% of their tax base
Regional Cooperation:
St. Paul/Minneapolis Tax-base Sharing

28. Cities Must Consider Quality of Life and Employment Trends

29. 1-2 December 2009
Employment by Industry,
Percentage Change 1990-2010
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)
INDUSTRY Seattle Los Angeles Baltimore Portland Tampa
Mining Logging and
Construction -50% N/A -18% -43% -17%
Manufacturing -24% -50% -53% -15% -32%
Trade, Transportation, and
Utilities 17% -3% -5% 19% 0%
Information 157% 11% 0% 37% 0%
Financial Activities 5% -14% -7% 25% 37%
Professional and Business
Services 61% 7% 50% 61% 195%
Education and Health Services
Services 80% 37% 64% 76% 57%
Leisure and Hospitality 46% 32% 22% 51% 13%
Other Services 31% 3% 20% 34% 13%
Government 36% 4% 6% 31% 35%

30. 1-2 December 2009
The NEW Measure of Growth:
Venture Capital, Start-Ups & University Research Investment
Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers and National Venture Capital Association, Thomson Financial; The Center
for Measuring University Performance at Arizona State
In venture capital, here are the fastest-growing U.S. regions by companies and total
and total investment dollars over 10 years.
Number of companies
companies
Total investment
(in millions)
University Research
Expenditures*
2007 1997
%
change 2007 1997
%
change 2007
Seattle 132 65 103% 1253.4 403.2 211% 966.8
Los Angeles 124 72 72% 1149.9 450.3 155% 1797.1
Washington
Metroplex
180 105 71% 1282.2 558.2 130% 2867.6
Baltimore
32 N/A N/A 224.5 N/A N/A 2442.2
Portland 28 28 0% 251.0 124.6 101% 476.8
Tampa 9 N/A N/A 153.8 N/A N/A 272.7

31. Quality of Life:
Parks, Culture, Design and Education
Getty Museum, Los Angeles
Waterfront Park, Portland
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore
Pike Place, Seattle

32. New York City Homicides, 1960-2009
Sources: Police Department City of New York, CompStat; FBI
Peak: 2245 Murders in 1990

33. 1-2 December 2009
Lessons Learned

34. 1. Leadership
Navy Pier, Chicago

35. 1-2 December 2009
2. Vision
PNC Baseball Park, Pittsburgh

36. 1-2 December 2009
3. Clear Public benefits/goals/values
Olympic Sculpture Park, Seattle

37. 1-2 December 2009
4. Institutional capacity
Otterbein Neighborhood,
Baltimore

38. 1-2 December 2009
5. A transparent public process
Pike Place Market, Seattle

39. 1-2 December 2009
6. Financing
A Financial Menu
• CDBG (allocated through the City)
• HOME (HUD)
• Brownfield Economic Development Initiative Grants (BEDI):
EDA (Public Works and Economic Development Program
• EPA (Brownfield Assessment and Clean-Up grants)
• Redevelopment Capital Assistance Program (RACP)
• Business In Our sites (BIOS)
• Industrial Sites Reuse Program (ISRP)
• Infrastructure and Facilities Improvement Program (IFIP)
• Infrastructure Development Program (IDP)
• Housing Redevelopment Assistance Program (HRA)
• URA and City Bonds
• Tax Increment Financing (TIF)
• Pittsburgh Development Fund (PDF)
• Urban Development Fund (UDF)
• Pittsburgh Business Growth Fund
• Pennsylvania Industrial Development Authority Loans (PIDA)
• Streetface Program
• Community Development Investment Fund (CDIF)
Pittsburgh Housing Construction Fund (PHCF)
• Neighborhood Housing Program (NHP)
• Housing Recovery Program (HRP)
• Multi-Family Revenue Bond Program (MFRBP)
• Rental Housing Development & Improvement Program (RHDIP)
PNC Building, Pittsburgh

40. 7. Land Control
1960s
Inner Harbor, Baltimore-Today

41. 1-2 December 2009
8. Design Excellence
Convention Center,
Pittsburgh
Millennium Park, Chicago

42. 1-2 December 2009
9. Trust and confidence
One of many ribbon cuttings celebrating the success of
a partnership

43. 1-2 December 2009
“There is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of
success, nor more dangerous to handle, than to initiate a new order of
things. For the reformer has enemies in all those who profit by the
old order, this luke-warmness arising partly from the fear of their
adversaries who have the laws in their favor, and partly from the
incredulity of mankind, who do not truly believe in anything new
until they have had actual experience of it.”
- Niccolo Machiavelli (1469-1527)
Leadership