2012-2014 West Coast Sea Grant-funded research project

1. Successful Adaptation
to Coastal Climate Change
Identifying Effective Process and
Outcome Characteristics and Practice-
Relevant Metrics

2. The all-star, all-female, three-state
Project Leadership Team
 Dr. Pamela Matson (PI)
Stanford University
 Dr. Susanne Moser (lead co-PI)
Susanne Moser Research & Consulting/Stanford
 Dr. Amy Snover (co-PI)
University of Washington
 Dr. Hannah Gosnell (co-PI)
Oregon State University

3. Central Question
What does successful adaptation look
like?
…in different physical, ecological, socio-
economic, institutional and cultural contexts that
characterize coastal communities
• Scientific perspective: What process and outcome
elements could be considered?
• Ethical/normative perspective: Which process and
outcome elements should be considered?
• Practical perspective: How can communities measure
progress towards successful adaptation, both in the near and
long-term?

4. An Increasingly Pressing Question
 Global sea level rise expected to
accelerate with climate warming
~7-8 in 1900-2000
~16 in by 2050
~55 in by 2010

5. Rationale
Why do coastal managers want to
know?
 To decide on a particular course of action
 To garner the necessary political and social
support to commit scarce resources to
adaptation
 To define defensible and measurable goals
 To assess trade-offs among different options
 To agree with coastal stakeholders on a
preferable strategy
 To illustrate reasonable progress and be

6. Alignment with Sea Grant
Goals
 National Sea Grant Program Vision:
“people live along our coasts in harmony with the
natural resources that attracted and sustain them”
 Sea Grant Core Values:
- strong partnerships
- integration of scientific expertise and research
- active engagement of stakeholders
- extension and education
 Touches all focal areas in the 2009-13
Strategic Plan

7. Project Approach
 Rooted in existing literature
 Stepwise engagement of scientists,
and coastal practitioners
 Comparative approach
◦ WA, OR, CA practitioner workshops
◦ Perspectives from science and practice
◦ Extensive stakeholder engagement during
and after project

8. Approach: Step-by-step
1. Literature review
- Scientific literature
- Plans, policy documents
Questions:
 What has been said to-date about adaptation success?
 What intentions about desirable processes or endpoints can be discerned?
 What dimensions of success are commonly delineated?
 What timeframes are (implicitly or explicitly) considered relevant for the
determination of success?
 What criteria and metrics have been proposed to measure progress toward
adaptation success?
 Over what temporal and geographic scales is success defined?
 What social, economic, and ecological endpoints and process aspects are
considered?
 Are trade-offs recognized, and if so, how are they being discussed or handled?
 Is the prospect of unavoidable loss raised, and how is it treated?
 What, if anything, is unique concerning the coastal adaptation context?

9. Approach: Step-by-step (cont.)
 2. Workshops
◦ - Science experts
◦ - Practitioners in each state (incl. preparatory interviews)
◦ - Capstone: Science and practitioners
Day-long interaction and discussion:
◦ Tabletop (pair and small group) activities, and group discussion to elicit
participants’ mental models or top-of-mind elements of successful adaptation
◦ Focus on persistent and vexing CZM challenges
◦ Discuss success through various theoretical lenses
◦ Explore metrics of success
◦ Consider different time horizons
◦ Examine trade offs
◦ Explore possibility of developing guidelines, delineating principles, and
providing a set of indicators (scorecards)

10. Expected Outcomes
Specific results of the project include:
 Clear categorization of “desirable” and
undesirable” outcomes of coastal climate
adaptation actions;
 Sophisticated articulation of desirable process
characteristics (generically, or for particular
stakeholders), and why;
 Guiding principles on how to assess adaptation
options as to their traits, desirability, and potential
trade-offs;
 Practical success metrics (e.g., existing or new
“performance measures”)

11. Stakeholder Engagement
 Pre-workshop interviews with practitioners
◦ identify existing mental models
◦ support development of useful workshops
 Practitioner Engagement in Workshops
 Outreach to Coastal and Other Stakeholders
after the Workshop Series
◦ Network of Sea Grant programs and extension
◦ Network of coastal and climate-focused
organizations in each West Coast state
◦ Network of adaptation-focused organizations
nationwide
◦ Local, state, federal and tribal policymakers
through existing connections
◦ National Climate Assessment

12. Outputs
 3 Practitioner workshops
 Peer-reviewed publications
 Lay audience publications (coastal
magazines, etc.)
 Presentation templates for professional
and lay audiences
 p/vodcasts for public and stakeholders
 Conference presentations
 Briefings with policymakers

13. Acknowledgments:
•Steve Adams, Adina
Abeles, Stacy Vynne,
and Lara Whitley-Binder
in developing and
executing this project.
•The West Coast Sea
YOUR QUESTIONS?
Grant programs for core
funding, and all partner
institutions for matching
funds.

14. Contacts
We welcome questions, ideas, and
comments:
Susi Moser
Email: promundi@susannemoser.com
Amy Snover
Email: aksnover@u.washington.edu
Hannah Gosnell
Email: gosnellh@geo.oregonstate.edu