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The world in 2020 - The 10 year perspective

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2020: A Review of Future Agenda Foresight

At this time of year, many are looking forward to the next twelve months. From the WSJ and the Economist to the FT, CNN and numerous consultancies, a host of organisations are suggesting how technology, economics, trade and politics may change and impact society.

However, others keen to plan, innovate and invest for the future are interested in understanding probable longer-term shifts. It is an uncertain science but those that are able to identify the pivotal global and regional changes ahead of peers can be better prepared.

In 2010 the first global Future Agenda programme looked forward to the key shifts that would impact the World in 2020, so perhaps it is timely to review the results of that research. How well did we anticipate the decade ahead? How does foresight match reality?

During 2010, 50 expert workshops in 25 countries looked at the most significant changes ahead across 16 different topics ranging from the future of cities, food, health, transport and energy to identity, choice, data and authenticity. The 52 top foresights for 2020 were published online and via books, presentations and other media. These covered a wide range of themes. All research was shared openly for all to use under Creative Commons.

This new overview takes a look at the original research, highlights a selection of the foresights for 2020 as identified in 2010 and compares them to the unfolding reality at the start of 2019. It demonstrates a high level of accuracy found with all Future Agenda research – with around 80% alignment between foresight and reality.

If you would like to be involved in some of our upcoming projects for 2019 on changes in digital education, autonomous vehicles, placemaking and energy storage, do get in touch.

In the meantime, we wish everyone a Happy New Year.

Published in: Business
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The world in 2020 - The 10 year perspective

  1. 1. The World in 2020 – The Ten Year Perspective A Review of Insights from Multiple Expert Discussions in 2010 31 December 2018
  2. 2. Context As many look forward to next year, others are interested in longer term shifts. In 2010 the first global Future Agenda programme looked at the World in 2020 How well did we anticipate the decade? How does foresight match reality?
  3. 3. The World in 2020 During 2010, 50 expert workshops in 25 countries looked at the most significant changes ahead across 16 different topics ranging from the future of cities, food, health, transport and energy to identity, choice, data and authenticity.
  4. 4. 52 Foresights The 52 top foresights for 2020 were published online and via books, presentations and other media. These covered a wide range of themes. All research was shared openly for all to use under Creative Commons.
  5. 5. Foresight vs. Reality This presentation highlights a selection of the foresights for 2020 as seen back in 2010 and compares them to the unfolding reality at the start of 2019. It demonstrates a high level of accuracy found with all Future Agenda research.
  6. 6. FOUR CERTAINTIES
  7. 7. Imbalanced Population Growth By 2020 we will add another 750m people to the planet, most in places least able to accommodate them. 2010 View of 2020: • 7.7bn global population • Infant mortality falls below 40/1000 births • 9.4% population over 65 • 27 cities with populations over 10m 2018 Status: • 7.64bn global population (12/2018) • Infant mortality at 27/1000 births (2017) • 8.7% population over 65 (2017) • 37 mega-cities with >10m pop (2017)
  8. 8. Key Resource Constraints We will see economic, physical and political shortages of key materials that will result in major changes in our perspectives. 2010 View of 2020: • Oil still providing 30% of energy mix • Gas grows to 20% energy by 2030 • China’s demand for steel doubles • 2/3 pop in water stressed locations by 2025 2018 Status: • Oil providing 34% world energy (2017) • Gas providing 23% world energy (2017) • China steel demand up 38% (2017) • 50% population living in water scarce areas
  9. 9. Asian Wealth Shift The centre of gravity of global wealth shifts East with decreased influence for the US and Europe. 2010 View of 2020: • China GDP/capita grows from $4.6k to $12.6k • China GDP/capita > 12% of US • India a top 6 global economy by GDP • India GDP/capita > 4% of US • China and India #1 and 2 by GDP PPP by 2025 2018 Status: • China GDP/capita $7.3k (2017) • China GDP/capita is 14.8% of US (2017) • India becomes 5th largest economy (2018) • India GDP/capita is 3.3% of US (2017) • China #1 India #3 by GDP PPP (2017)
  10. 10. Ubiquitous Data Access We will be connected everywhere - everything that can benefit from a network connection will have one. 2010 View of 2020: • >90% global penetration of mobile • >50% population has internet access • More mobile than PC connections • Up to 50bn connected devices 2018 Status: • 5.3bn mobile subscribers globally • 4.3bn with mobile broadband (2017) • 55.1% population has internet access • 23.1bn IoT connected devices
  11. 11. HEALTH
  12. 12. Diabesity With diabetes consuming 5% of GDP a combination of fat taxation, patient data mining and personal budgets will play a role in stabilising the obesity epidemic. 2010 View of 2020: • 10% US population diabetic • #1 area of public healthcare spend • 438m diabetics by 2030 • €500bn cost of diabetes globally • Introduction of sugar tax 2018 Status: • 9.5% US population diabetic (2017) • >70m US citizens with prediabetes • 422m adults globally diabetic • Global economic burden $1.3tn (2015) • Sugar taxes in UK, FR, SA, MX, NO and UAE
  13. 13. Mass Medical Tourism Medical tourism goes main-stream as low-cost cardiac surgery and broader healthcare provision join dentistry and cosmetic surgery to have global impact. 2010 View of 2020: • Medical tourism expands to complex surgery • Major source of income in key countries • >2m US medical tourists p.a. • EU health systems support medical tourism • Market worth $50bn by 2020 2018 Status: • Asia Pacific has 44% market share (2016) • Top 3 destinations: Costa Rica, India, Malaysia • 1.4m US medical tourists (2017) • 16m global medical tourists (2017) • Global market $15.5bn (2017)
  14. 14. WEALTH
  15. 15. Lease Everything Rising sustainability imperatives and increasing cost of ownership shift the balance from ownership to access and we prefer to rent than buy. 2010 View of 2020: • Growth of mobility as a service • Expansion of bicycle rental globally • Leasing dominant for cars by 2020 • PC rental / 3 year ownership cycle 2018 Status: • Uber, Lyft, Grab market leaders in mobility • Global car leasing market $63bn (2017) • Car leasing dominant model in US, UK, DE • Samsung and Apple reimburse for recycling
  16. 16. Mobile Money Proven systems built on mobile connectivity and increasingly flexible means of exchange provide a tipping point in the shift towards the cashless society. 2010 View of 2020: • Over 50% money transfers digital • Mobile payment services used by 1bn • Cash falling proportion of transactions • Cash still in the mix in all countries 2018 Status: • Developing mkt non-cash transactions 66.3% • Cash in circulation risen to 9.6% global GDP • 45% Chinese using mobile for payments • 27% Americans using mobile for payments
  17. 17. HAPPINESS
  18. 18. Cocktail Identities The need to differentiate between real and virtual disappears - who you are ceases to use a singular identity as we manage multiple identity portfolios. 2010 View of 2020: • Expansion of fragmented approach to identity • Growth in global diaspora • Blurring of personal and professional identity • Launch of digital identity systems 2018 Status: • 3bn active social media users globally • Average 5.5 social media accounts per user • Linked-In 560m users worldwide • Gender now flexible not fixed • Multiple competing digital identity platforms
  19. 19. Live Experiences The role of live in an increasingly virtual, isolated world becomes more important to create moments for deeper, richer connections. 2010 View of 2020: • Growth in live music business model • Rise in audience for World Cup / Olympics • Reality TV shows over 50% rankings • 30% UK and US households ‘solo living’ 2018 Status: • Live Nation revenue doubled to $10bn (2017) • 3.6bn watch 2012 and 2016 Olympics • 3.2bn watch 2018 World Cup • 50% of audience watching reality TV (2013) • 27.9% US households are single people
  20. 20. MOBILITY
  21. 21. Asian Aviation Led by more tourists and steady growth in cargo transportation, Asian aviation places more orders and becomes the largest air market in the world. 2010 View of 2020: • Asia Pacific fastest growth market for planes • Asia-Pac fleet triples to 11,170 planes • Planes more efficient but still fossil fuel based • China to have 244 major airports • Dubai Airport over 90m passengers p.a. 2018 Status: • 7 busiest routes all in Asia (Feb 2018) • China has #6 and #7 largest airlines • 5593 planes in China alone (2017) • 229 major airports in China (2017) • Dubai Airport 88.8m passengers (2017)
  22. 22. Intelligent Highways Mesh networks and ubiquitous mobile connections deliver automated highways to improve safety, increase capacity and reduce congestion. 2010 View: • Self-driving cars on the road • No one killed in a Volvo by 2020 • Trucks will lead autonomous deployment • Connected vehicles come before driverless 2018 Status: • Waymo filed >2000 self-driving patents (2016) • Partially automated cars in production • Truck platoon testing in EU, US and AUS • Urban delivery robots deployed in 15 markets
  23. 23. SECURITY
  24. 24. Drone Wars Intelligent UAVs choose their victims themselves as the race for more focused military influence leads to the proliferation of assassination tools. 2010 View of 2020: • Majority of US air surveillance by UAV • Majority of US air bombing by drone • Drones choose targets themselves • Drones have potential to reinvent combat 2018 Status: • USAF has 10,691 drones (2014) • USAF more drone pilots than all others (2014) • US Military spend on UAVs peak $7bn (2018) • Autonomous UAVs technically possible (NATO) • Gatwick airport closed by commercial drones
  25. 25. Solar Sunrise Increasing governmental focus on energy security and climate change drives the uptake of large-scale solar as the leading renewable supply. 2010 View of 2020: • Over 70% energy still fossil based • Solar fastest growing renewable source • PV efficiency rises from 10% to 40% • India to have 20GW of installed solar 2018 Status: • 85% world energy from oil, gas and coal • Solar accounts for 50% of total growth (2017) • Most efficient solar PV is 44.5% • China installed power 50GW (2017) • India installed solar power 26GW
  26. 26. LOCALITY
  27. 27. Mega City States Increasing competition between cities over-rides national priorities as mayors lead bold initiatives to place their cities at the forefront of the global stage. 2010 View of 2020: • Cites not nations take the big steps forward • Mega-cities cooperate and compete • C40 network will be a core forum • 19 cities over 20m population by 2100 2018 Status: • C40 driving change more than G20 and OECD • C40 cities account for 25% global GDP • 100 Resilient Cities (100RC) major force • 8 cities with over 20m population
  28. 28. Migration Magnets Immigration is part of economic development strategies and, especially in low fertility economies, nations position themselves to attract migrants. 2018 Reality: • 55% world population urban • Urban population will be 68% by 2050 • Canada attracting 310,000 immigrants p.a. • 8m African migrants in EU (2018) • Immigration #1 issue for national politics 2010 View of 2020: • Rural to urban migration increasing • Cities within countries compete to attract • Canada leading migration magnet • Sub-Saharan Africa major feeder of EU • Skill-based immigration core for many nations
  29. 29. MODERATORS OF THE FUTURE
  30. 30. Major Moderators Lastly, the 2010 research also highlighted a number of key issues that would have greater influence over the decade. Many of these are now having significant impact around the world across business, government and society. • Trust in government • Trust in information • A decline in trust Trust • Sharing information • Consumer privacy • Systemic privacy Privacy • Global collaboration • Growing local / national focus • Regions setting own priorities Global vs. Local • Citizens let others make difficult decisions • China setting global standards • Global champions for common causes Choice
  31. 31. FUTURE AGENDA OVERVIEW
  32. 32. Future Agenda Future Agenda is an open think tank and advisory firm that helps organisations to understand emerging opportunities, make more informed decisions and place better, bolder strategic growth bets. INSIGHT IMPACT Global Foresight Industry Insight Bespoke Research New Services New Products New Strategies Core Team Extended Team The Global Network
  33. 33. The World in 2020 and The World in 2025 In 2010 / 2015 we led unique multi-topic, collaborative global open foresight programmes looking at the key changes for the next decade across 25 topics. The accuracy of these and preceding major programmes is well above 80%. • 120 workshops • 24 topics • 45 cities • 5000 experts • 50 workshops • 16 topics • 25 cities • 1500 experts
  34. 34. Focused Open Foresight Projects We run focused global projects exploring specific topics in depth. Undertaken in collaboration with multiple leading organisations, these generate rich, informed perspectives of emerging trends and opportunities. Future of Cities (2016/17) https://www.futureofcities.city Future of Philanthropy (2017) https://www.thefutureofphilanthropy.org Future of Patient Data (2017/18) https://www.futureofpatientdata.org Future Value of Data (2018) Future of Digital Identity (2018)
  35. 35. Collaborative Approach Multiple expert workshops around the world are hosted by different organisations. The insights from all the events are shared openly. A global report provides an informed view of pivotal future changes. Level of Privacy Regulation: DLA Piper https://www.dlapiperdataprotection.com Heavy Robust Moderate Limited Current Healthcare Expenditure as a %GDP (2015) COUNTRY TOTAL GOVT PRIVATE San Francisco 19 JAN 2018 C Top 3 Challenges O Top 3 Opportunities E Top 3 Emerging Issues London 14 DEC 2017 Oslo 30 OCT 2017 Dubai 27 SEPT 2017 C Data Gaps Infrastructure Digital Skills O Predictive Analysis Artificial Intelligence Genetic Profiling E Standardised Measures Mental Health Ulterior Motives Johannesburg 10 OCT 2017 Frankfurt 25 JAN 2018 Brussels 9 NOV 2017 Boston 17 JAN 2018 Toronto 16 JAN 2018 Future of Patient Data (2017/18) Locations and Key Insights Australia 9.4 6.5 2.9 Belgium 10.5 8.6 1.8 Canada 10.4 7.7 2.8 UK 9.9 7.9 1.9 Germany 11.2 9.4 1.7 India 3.9 1.0 2.9 Norway 10.0 8.5 1.5 Singapore 4.3 2.2 2.0 South Africa 8.0 4.4 3.6 UAE 3.5 2.5 1.0 USA 16.8 8.5 8.4 C Combining Data Sets Digital Skills Resistance from HCPs O Personal Data Sharing Genetic Profiling Artificial Intelligence E Inequality Privatization of Health Data Data Sovereignty Sydney 15 NOV 2017 C Linkability of Open Data Data Gaps Ulterior Motives O Genetic Profiling Predictive Analysis Data Marketplaces E New Models Informed Consent New Entrants C Combining Data Sets Getting Closer to the Patient Expanding Set of Data O Predictive Analysis Personalisation Artificial Intelligence E Standardised Measures Inequality Global Data Sharing C Ulterior Motives Resistance from HCPs Trust O Artificial Intelligence New Business Models Mental Health E Data Sovereignty Patient Empowerment Data Marketplaces C Data Ownership Ulterior Motives Trust O Data Marketplaces Artificial Intelligence Personalisation E New Business Models Privatisation of Health Data Informed Consent C Expanding Data Set Combining Data Sets Regulation O Data Marketplaces Personalisation Artificial Intelligence E Informed Consent Data Sovereignty Inequality C Integration of Data Data Quality Unstructured Data O Individualized Medicine Artificial Intelligence Data Marketplace E Privatisation of Health data New Business Models Value of Health Data C Getting Closer to the Patient Combining Data Sets Data Gaps O Genetic Profiling Artificial Intelligence Proxy Data E Inequality Standardised Measures Privatisation of Health data C Combining Data Sets Trust Linkability of Open Data O Embedded AI Getting Closer to the Patient Predictive Analysis E New Business Models Standardised Measures Inequality Singapore 13 NOV 2017 C Regulation Combining Data Sets Getting Closer to the Patient O Artificial Intelligence Individual Custodianship Personalisation E Data Sovereignty Standardised Measures Value of Health Data Mumbai 23 NOV 2017 C Data Quality Ulterior Motives Data Ownership O Data Marketplaces India Setting Standards Artificial Intelligence E Informed Consent New Models Inequality
  36. 36. Large Corporates Technology Firms NGOs Economists Government Academia / Research Start-Ups Influencers Immersive Workshops Our workshops bring together a mix of expertise with varied perspectives to help challenge and build a richer view. They are immersive, inclusive events that explore future shifts and detail impacts, risks and opportunities. 36
  37. 37. 2019 Projects Four major projects are scheduled for 2019 that build on previous research. Each is supported by a range of companies, governments and universities. Other projects may be added as new topics and collaborations emerge. Future of Digital Education Future of Autonomous Vehicles Future of Placemaking Future of Energy Storage
  38. 38. Bespoke Support We also provide bespoke research and advisory support for a wide range of leading organisations exploring emerging issues, identifying strategic options and defining future pathways.
  39. 39. Future Agenda, 84 Brook Street, London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 www.futureagenda.org | www.futureagenda.net | @futureagenda

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