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The Next Age of Megacities


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Megacities may be congested and complex but they are also among the planet’s most exciting places to live. They have proven effective in stimulating creativity, innovation and economic development; factors that often lead to improved quality of life.

A new report, The Next Age of Megacities takes a closer look at how the largest cities in the world can use ICT to address their evolving challenges in a holistic, proactive and collaborative way, through a city management model.

Last year, Ericsson published a report, The Three Ages of Megacities that looked at how the maturity level of a city can help identify the most appropriate ICT solutions.

  • Thanks Maria and Consultoriatic Consultoria de Comunicaciones for your comments and feedback.
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  • Fully agree on the Conclusions also. In this situation, we need to raise the question of how processes of public involvement can occupy both the social structure and the physical digital structure, and maybe even find new modes of civic engagement through leading edge technological solutions. Your fruitful on going research as I understand it seeks to investigate: How do the city’s information structures re-generate new forms for participatory planning and eventually (from my point of view as architect-urban planner) urban planning policies are able to use space as a key resource and citizens as lasting synergies. And eventually when we pose the question 'What is it that we are talking about when we put cities, urban planning, digital tools and citizen participation together?', we come to the conclusion that the answer is not, ' Is it e-planning? Is it ICT-mediated participatory planning? Is it urban informatics?' but rather, 'Is it the wealth of the cities?'.
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  • Fully agree on Conclusions 'Citizens should define life in megacities together with governments and with the support of ICT... in a proactive, holistic and collaborative way'
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The Next Age of Megacities

  1. 1. The nextage ofmegacitiesNetworkedSociety
  2. 2. ContEnts>> Introductionp3 Megacity challenges and opportunities p4 Megacity management p6 Functional components p8 Scenarios p10 Conclusionsp14 Sourcesp15Networked Society – The next age of megacities The next age of megacities 2
  3. 3. IntroductionMegacities may be congested and complex but they are also among the planet’s mostexciting places to live. They have proven effective in stimulating creativity, innovation andeconomic development; factors that often lead to improved quality of life.It’s a diverse matrix that needs to balance social, A knowledge and reasoning layer – the intelligenceeconomic and environmental pressures in a sustainable of the system, which gathers information fromway, while providing everything from essential services various sources in the city, and then searches forsuch as water, food and electricity, to public safety, job meaning in the large amount of data.creation and better use of resources. Sustainable city models – functions and methods that can plan, track and assess the potential of ICTRealizing this potential requires a holistic, proactive solutions for sustainable development.and collaborative approach at all levels of society, Community and business participation – enablingfrom city planners, businesses and citizens, using a a dialog between the city, people and businessescity management system to achieve a common vision. and to allow collaborative bottom-up creativity.This is where ICT can play an important role. By Dynamic city operations centers – for dynamicmining the vast amount of data produced by the responses and the daily management of complexarray of connected things within any megacity, ICT city instrumental in the efficient day-to-daymanagement of the city, but perhaps more This model of city management, and its usefulness inimportantly, provides the mechanisms to support addressing the complexity of megacities today whilebalanced views when implementing solutions that preparing decision-makers for the future, isaffect several interconnected challenges and exemplified in two scenarios: dynamic response toopportunities. an event and using the findings to mitigate future events; and a hub concept that gives citizens theOf course, no two cities are the same. While there is kind of opportunities that can really transform life.some commonality in terms of underlying challenges,the needs of citizens not government or technology– must dictate the way megacities evolve. In aprevious report, we highlighted the need for newurban models to tackle social, economic and What definesenvironmental pressures sustainably as megacitiesevolve. Here we discussed the strong parallels a megacity?between the challenges and opportunities of A megacity is a metropolitan area with a totalmegacities at key stages in their development – or in population in excess of 10 million. It can be aother words as they mature in terms of single metropolitan area or two or moresocioeconomic status and infrastructure. The metropolitan areas that converge. It is difficultmaturity level of a megacity will therefore, to a to define the outer limits and accuratelydegree, determine the type of ICT solutions that can estimate the population of megacities. Even ifbe beneficial at each particular stage of the rise of the megacity has made a significantdevelopment. contribution to the development of society, there is a desperate need for new urbanThis second report takes a closer look at how the largest models to tackle the social, economic andcities in the world can use ICT to address their evolving environmental pressure in a sustainable way.challenges in a holistic, proactive and collaborative way,through a city management model comprising:Networked Society – The next age of megacities 3
  4. 4. Megacitychallenges andopportunitiesToday, 50 percent of the world’s population lives in opportunities, freedom and a sense of belonging.cities – a figure set to increase to 70 percent by This urbanization trend is reinforced by pull and push2050. For individuals, it is about improving quality of factors alike. Economic opportunities, better schoolslife for themselves and their families – seeking and hospitals, and things to experience – made MATURITY LEVEL LOW MEDIUM HIGH High growth rate due Declining growth rate Slow growth rate to migration and birth Increased demands as Infrastructure built one rates a result of increasing or two generations ago CHARACTERISTICS Large population living wealth A significantly aging in informal settlements First signs of an aging population Young population population Empower and Create growth and Optimize the efficiency recognize people in inclusivity of aging infrastructure poor areas Promote the efficient and systems Meet basic use of resources when Balance workforce infrastructure and trying to meet demand and supply to CHALLENGES public service needs increasing demands tackle unemployment Reduce corruption Have a people-centric Incentivize behaviors and increase view on urban planning that increase transparency to sustainability improve trust in city leaders Increase inclusion Make public services Build on the significant through access to efficient and accessible role ICT already plays information Take opportunities to Retrofit and prolong the Bypass traditional transform when new life of existing systems ICT OPPORTUNITIES development systems are introduced Use ICT to help people processes Connect citizens and to make more informed Enable more collective businesses to support decisions forms of urban innovation development Dhaka, Lagos, Karachi Istanbul, São Paolo London, Tokyo, CITY EXAMPLES and Delhi and Shanghai New York and ParisNetworked Society – The next age of megacities 4
  5. 5. possible by the economies of scale not seen in rural In this sense, the countless connections in a megacitysettings – pull people to the cities, while poverty, low provide the basis for both broad-brush solutionsstandards of infrastructure, and climate change push applicable to the common challenges faced in anypeople out of the countryside. compact urban setting and specific answers to a population’s unique concerns.The flow-on effect of more compact living is moreefficient use of resources. There is, however, a Maturity level as a guide to ICT solutionsworldwide awareness that urbanization and economic We looked closely at the connection between ICTgrowth come at a cost in terms of wealth distribution and megacity maturity in our previous report (seeand environmental impact. table on page 4).Harmonizing the needs of people and organizations,and their respective activities, may be one of the mostimportant considerations in future megacities. of the world’sDiverse megacity challengesMegacity challenges can be loosely categorized populationas practical or subjective, based on the underlying lives in citiesneed. today – a figure set to increase toPractical matters, most commonly associated with 70 percent by 2050. For individuals,smart cities, cover transportation, carbon emissions,energy, water, unemployment and segregation, and it is about improving quality of lifehave traditionally been driven top down by the need for themselves and their families –for efficiency and productivity. While each megacitywill need a customized solution for its practical seeking opportunities, freedom andchallenges, based on culture, location and the like, a sense of belonging.common challenges and ICT opportunities becomeapparent based on the megacity’s socioeconomic andinfrastructure development – its maturity.The needs of city dwellers are not always as easy to In summary, in low-maturity megacities a largecategorize. The definition of what constitutes a good proportion of inhabitants are focused on securing anquality of life is subjective depending on individual income, somewhere to live, and access to basicperceptions, attitudes, aspirations and value systems utilities such as water and electricity. In high-maturityresulting in different priorities and attitudes not only megacities, these fundamentals are most likelybetween cities but within populations. Subjective already in place, leaving residents to focus on issueschallenges often require more complex cross-service such as gaining transparency in terms of their rights,solutions, which by their nature are hard to define and participating in activities that give them aand measure, and therefore have generally received sense of belonging, increased convenience andless attention. self-fulfillment.Networked Society – The next age of megacities 5
  6. 6. MegacitymanagementWhile maturity level provides a guide as to how ICT tools and desire to identify and resolve root causes ofcan be utilized to solve megacity challenges, long- problems, not merely react to the symptoms.term success will only come from taking a holistic,proactive and collaborative approach at all levels of A model of city managementsociety – from city planners, businesses and citizens For the difficult choices that inevitably lie ahead of– using a city management system to achieve a megacities, it is crucial that city leaders find a balancecommon vision. between environmental care, economic growth and quality of life. Different aspects of city developmentlong term approach need to be addressed and, if they contradict eachHistorically, megacity challenges have been dealt with other, be prioritized or renegotiated according to thereactively, with the focus on solving existing problems. holistic vision. Here, ICT can provide mechanisms toConsequently, change can lag behind shifts in the way support balanced views when implementing solutionspeople live and work. Ideally, megacities should be that affect several interconnected challenges anddeveloped so they can respond dynamically to events they occur and prepare for future scenarios, whiletaking into account the relationships between diverse In the model of city management presented here, fourstakeholders. areas interplay using the data available, to address both challenges and opportunities in terms of the underlyingThis requires a long-term vision, shared by the city drivers and activities encountered in megacity society,and its citizens, and proactive approaches to reach be it health, energy, the environment or food.that vision. Sustainable living conditions, housing,employment, effective infrastructure, public safety, Knowledge and reasoning layer: This set of functionsinclusive growth and giving citizens the chance to can be likened to the intelligence of the system,have an active dialog with local government are all gathering information from various sources in the city,part of the equation. It is also essential for city leaders and then searching for meaning in the large amountto understand how solutions affect citizens, of data. The knowledge that is gained through thisbusinesses and organizations, and how these groups reasoning is collected in a knowledge base andcan be part of shaping the future vision. made available to the other functions to support a holistic view.Such a harmonized approach can only be achievedwhen all parties have the information needed and Sustainable city models: Here we see functions andwillingness to take a holistic view. ICT can contribute methods that can plan, track and assess the potentialto both factors. From the information perspective, ICT of ICT solutions for sustainable development. Thesesystems acquire, integrate and analyze information functions use data from public services, regulationsfrom diverse sources and present this according to and other cities as input to proactive analytic tools.the needs and context of the involved parties. From From a day-to-day management perspective, thesethe second perspective, ICT can increase functions give other systems in the city, such as wastetransparency by bridging cognitive gaps and thereby management, guidance and feedback in orderpresent opportunities and alternatives for people to to respond to situations in line with the long-explore. In this way, megacities are armed with the term vision.Networked Society – The next age of megacities 6
  7. 7. Community and business participation: This part Dynamic city operations centers: These functionsenables dialog between people, businesses and support resilient responses and target the dailyorganizations, either implicitly through sensors or management of complex city systems.They offerexplicitly through active feedback and social decision support, efficient use of availablenetworks. Citizens, organizations and businesses resources and optimization of systems. Thesemust be given a platform that allows access to city functions are more reactive in nature and aredata and knowledge to allow collaborative bottom-up supported by connected objects, sensors,creativity. This is one way to ensure wide participation actuators, services and so on. It is important that allin development towards a shared vision. Furthermore, city data is presented in context, for examplethe functions could provide interfaces for incentives through visualizations that give a snapshot of theand rewards to citizens and businesses that support current situation, to give meaning to abstract andsustainable development. scattered information. Sustainable city models Community and business participation Dynamic city operations centers Crowdsourcing Update and support algorithms Event Respond information to events Knowledge and reasoning layer Update Contextual and Shared preferences Status personal information data informaton Public safety Education Jobs Health Food Energy WaterNetworked Society – The next age of megacities 7
  8. 8. FunctionalcomponentsThe model for megacity management that we havedescribed requires smarter networks that are better Sharing datasuited to different types of services, a secure high- between systemsspeed backbone and cloud infrastructure, andinterconnected objects, sensors and organizations. Inall this, the management of various data flows, Knowledgesometimes in real-time, will be central to give people, representationbusinesses and society access to information at any and reasoningtime and in any place. This will not be an easy task,but Ericsson’s solutions for handling large amounts of Acting upon andcomplex data in telecom networks are a solid visualizing datafoundation to build upon. The functionality of ouroperational and business support systems providesthe backbone of a city management system. Connecting objects, services, and usersBasic functional building blocksThe following section outlines some of the functionalcomponents that serve as basic building blocks when Accessingcreating ICT solutions for megacity challenges. These the databuilding blocks form the base of a system that can betailored to local requirements.Connecting objects, services and users: There will bea multitude of service needs requiring everything fromhigh-speed to low-speed connections, different trafficdelay requirements from best-effort to low-delay orreal-time, and different needs for service prioritization Objects and services Users and actorsand QoS.Many types of networks – fixed-line, short-range andmobile – will be needed to accommodate thenumerous types of solution designs. Networks willalso have to be smarter and adapt to different needsbased on the requirements of the services using them.This necessitates attention to data security andappropriate levels of data integrity.Accessing the data: Cities have an array of objectsand services that collect data – ranging from differenttypes of sensors to advanced video cameras – withNetworked Society – The next age of megacities 8
  9. 9. varying levels of intelligence; some can only send dataupdates to the system while others can process thedata before forwarding it. These objects reside on There will be a multitude of serviceboth public and private networks and use different needs requiring everything from high-access technologies for connecting to their networkand different protocols for communication. Resource speed to low-speed connections,management – keeping track of where resources are different traffic delay requirementshosted and providing information about how toaccess them – is an important part of a successful from best-effort to low-delay or real-city operations solution or other systems (waste time, and different needs for servicemanagement, traffic control, energy supply and so on)for city management. prioritization and QoS.Knowledge representation and reasoning: Real-worldobjects need to be modeled and represented in adatabase (often referred to as a knowledge base) preserve the privacy of various actors and thereforealong with the data they produce. This data is then their trust in the system.analyzed as input to decision making and guidingactions. Different types of reasoning or analysis Acting upon and visualizing data: City managementmechanisms, such as logical reasoning, are applied systems must support all types of users by presentingto data in the knowledge base to infer new data in a way that simplifies decision making. Effectiveknowledge and make decisions. Many city systems data visualization and presentation is critical, as itmay have low-latency requirements, meaning data allows city operations centers and public authorities toprocessing may need to work in real-time and make informed decisions. But it is equally importantmethods such as Complex Event Processing can be that citizens and businesses are able to use this data toused to filter large amounts of data on the fly. understand alternatives and the long-term effects ofHowever, this does not imply that all data processing actions. Hence, ways need to be identified to representmust be performed in a centralized location. It could city data, and the knowledge stemming from it, toalso be done further out in network nodes, such as a people in a way that makes sense given their currentradio base station, so that only relevant data is context.pushed to the cloud.Sharing data between systems: Many of the systemsoperated by the city, government and businessescould benefit from being connected. A data brokercomponent can enable data sharing between systemsand can apply rules on what data is shared. This is akey aspect for citizen participation and stimulation ofinnovative and sustainable business practices. But,this openness presents a technical challenge – how toNetworked Society – The next age of megacities 9
  10. 10. Scenarios The following scenarios are just two examples of how illustrates how city resources can be used in a ICT can utilize the vast amount of data and coordinated and effective way, and how the smart use accumulated knowledge available within megacities to of these resources, based on data from an event, can address the challenges and opportunities we have provide knowledge to all affected parties. outlined throughout this report. They illustrate how the functional components of a city management system Reporting an accident: Imagine a megacity during the interact in proactive and reactive use cases, and the evening rush hour with hundreds of thousands of range of applications for the data gathered from vehicles in motion. A truck driving through an connected things. These examples highlight the intersection has to swerve to avoid a car driving holistic monitoring of resources from a governance against a red light. The car is unharmed but the truck perspective and how the knowledge gained from city crashes into a wall and completely blocks the road. All data can be relevant for planning and to initiate available connected resources in the area – the truck, transformation of services. sensors, cameras, smart street and traffic lights, and so on – immediately react, sending data in real-time to Dynamically responding to an event the city management system, where it is aggregated Unexpected events take place in every megacity but and analyzed. intelligent technologies based on the models and components we have introduced above can help to Dispatching emergency services: The reasoning limit the impact of these events. This scenario component of the system analyzes the available INTELLIGENT RESPONSE The response to an accident includes a number of actions POLICE beyond alerting the relevant emergency services and people close to the scene. To limit the impact on both the TRUCK immediate and the surrounding WITH CARGO area, the city management system takes a number of additional actions. One is to use FIRE connected streetlights to DEPARTMENT brighten the area. Another is to redirect traffic around the site of the incident, allowing emergency services quicker access.© OpenStreetMap contributors HOSPITAL Networked Society – The next age of megacities 10
  11. 11. contextual information, such as speed of impact, thetruck’s load, location, traffic status and so on. It thenforwards the recommended actions to the relevant cityoperations centers as the basis for decision making,and where relevant, completes actions autonomously, If you can do so safely, pleaseenhancing efficiency. One example is automatically send photos or video of theallocating the nearest and most appropriate accident near you on Rue de Lagny so we can send the rightemergency services and informing them about the emergency services.situation. After this initial action, the componentcontinues to search for and analyze data streams tobuild on the understanding of the situation beforeemergency services arrive on scene, and if necessaryrequest additional types of support.Asking the community for support: In some cases,only limited information from the nearby connectedthings will be available to the knowledge-reasoningengine. In this case, a community interface is criticalto a successful outcome. The knowledge andreasoning component can advise the operator to askpeople near the accident for help, for example, bysubmitting live video. The system can also notifypeople traveling in the vicinity of the accident to takealternative routes or use other means of transport.This has the dual benefit of clearing traffic that wouldotherwise hinder the emergency response and helpingcitizens carry out their activities with limited delay.Citizens who provide support can be rewarded by thecity with, for example, a free public transport trip orfree data usage corresponding to a suitable multiple The bus stop on Rue deof the data used for the video feed. Lagny is closed due to an accident. Continue to SquareThis scenario shows how a collaborative and cross- Got and take bus 59.domain effort from an intelligent city managementsystem, public services and citizens limits the impactof an unexpected event. In addition, the effectiveness with which the event was handled can be added to Local community service hubsthe knowledge base. Collected data can be used to The first scenario, with an advanced city operationsgive feedback to city operations centers, as well as center, is more oriented towards a high- or medium-input for handling future scenarios – not only in this maturity megacity. ICT solutions for megacityparticular megacity but in other cities. The analysis management can, however, take many shapes. Incan also be used to avoid similar events altogether by, low-maturity megacities where digital literacy is lowfor example, changing traffic routes or traffic light and technical infrastructure less developed, the vastsettings to reduce traffic in that area. These proactive amount of city data can be a starting point for moreplans should, of course, be aligned with the transformational changes to optimize resource use.sustainable city models. Information about how people and businesses utilizeNetworked Society – The next age of megacities 11
  12. 12. the city today, together with sustainable visions for the Voice within government: Another advantage of these future, can be the base for improving the availability of centers is that they give a larger part of the population public services. the opportunity to collaboratively express their opinion. From a public services perspective, the hubs Building on local community centers: Imagine how are a way to gather information from citizens that traditional hubs for services or natural meeting points could add valuable data to the city management could be enhanced with 24-7 digital services to system. Perhaps sharing data at the hubs will mean a improve citizens’ contact with governments, bank higher level of perceived privacy and security from a services, tax institutions, health providers, legal better understanding of how personal information is services and so on. These centers would bring used and for what purpose. These forms of citizen opportunities for more transparent communication contributions would help to meet short-term needs with public services, a more efficient use of resources, and the long-term vision of the city. and a strengthened community with increased empowerment. The location and capabilities of these Hubs, like the ones described in this scenario, can service hubs are carefully planned based on city data have a great transformative effect on many areas, for and citizen needs to ensure a positive effect for the example transportation, inclusion and education. community and its sense of belonging in the megacity. Take for example, transportation. As the community matures toward a more knowledge-based society, Access to public services, 24-7: People who the hubs could be used as tele-commuting points, previously had to visit several places to manage their allowing people the opportunity to work close to limited contacts with authorities can now go to one home a few days per week. This not only cuts place for numerous errands, significantly increasing congestion but also empowers individuals who have the accessibility of public services. General service more time to focus on quality of life concerns, such staff providing personal service ensure the hubs also as spending time with family. Having access to many help people who are not IT literate. The centers provide city services at the same physical place should, high quality communication and remote collaboration hopefully, reduce bureaucracy. When different capabilities, and include connected devices and tools authorities integrate their back offices by, for that can facilitate, for example, remote healthcare- example, sharing certain information securely in services. All sessions require secure identification, the cloud, they can better collaborate and take such as biometric data or through mobile ID solutions. holistic viewpoints. HUB HUB DIGITAL SERVICE HUBS Distributed across the city, the HUB digital service hubs offer public services through high quality HUB communiciation, secure remote collaboration, and connected devices. They target all citizens,© OpenStreetMap contributors but especially the economically disadvantaged. This can have a great transformative effect on HUB many areas, for example, transportation, inclusion, and education. Networked Society – The next age of megacities 12
  13. 13. ConclusionsCitizens should define life in megacities together with governments, and with the support fromICT solutions and technology. We therefore need to create functional building blocks that equipcommunities to drive change in a direction that suits both their immediate and long-term needs,in a proactive, holistic and collaborative way.As no two cities are the same, the fundamental long-term visions and incentives for behavioral change.building blocks we create for city management Ericsson provides a number of telecom-grade ICTsystems must have the flexibility to be tailored and technologies and enablers that will play an importantapplied in megacities around the world. The purpose role in addressing these megacity challenges. Ouris to solve problems and support all types of actors in experience of integration and implementation ofthe community to grasp the opportunities ICT advanced systems is backed by best-practices gainedpresents in terms of improving quality of life, from our global operations. Our solutions includeincreasing socioeconomic development and reducing smart networks for connected city objects andenvironmental impact. services, secure high-speed backbone and cloud infrastructure, and the facilitation of services based onAt the same time, systems need to build on common components to handle data flows.components, for efficiency and cost-effectiveness,taking into account the uniform, but differing, needs These examples of functional components will enablepresented at each stage of megacity maturity. For a holistic understanding, more informed citizens andinstance, the lack of infrastructure in low-maturity cross-domain reasoning for city governance –megacities may increase the need for citizen action and aspects that can contribute to balanced views ofinnovations, while the wasteful use of resources in development, and in the end improve quality of lifehigh-maturity megacities may require strong for people.Networked Society – The next age of megacities 14
  14. 14. Sources This report contains a summary of collected information about megacities and the ICT solutions already in use. Sources include publicly available material from international organizations, academic studies and business papers from management consultants. In-house research conducted by the User Experience Lab and Sustainability Solutions and Assessments at Ericsson Research, Ericsson Networked Society Lab and Ericsson ConsumerLab are also key sources. According to the United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision the following 37 cities will be megacities in the year 2025. Population in millions and current within parenthesis: Tokyo, Japan, 39 (37) Kinshasa, DR Congo, 15 (8) Delhi, India, 33 (22) Chongqing, China, 14 (10) Shanghai, China, 28 (20) Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 14 (12) Mumbai, India, 27 (19) Bangalore, India, 13 (8) Mexico City, Mexico, 25 (20) Jakarta, Indonesia, 13 (10) New York, USA, 24 (20) Chennai, India, 13 (9) São Paulo, Brazil, 23 (20) Wuhan, China, 13 (9) Dhaka, Bangladesh, 23 (15) Moscow, Russia, 13 (11) Beijing, China, 23 (15) Paris, France, 12 (11) Karachi, Pakistan, 20 (14) Osaka-Kobe, Japan, 12 (11) Lagos, Nigeria, 19 (11) Tianjin, China, 12 (9) Kolkata, India, 19 (14) Hyderabad, India, 12 (8) Manila, Philippines, 16 (12) Lima, Peru, 12 (9) Los Angeles, USA, 16 (13) Chicago, USA, 11 (10) Shenzhen, China, 16 (10) Bogotá, Colombia, 11 (9) Buenos Aires, Argentina, 16 (13) Bangkok, Thailand, 11 (8) Guangzhou, China, 15 (10) Lahore, Pakistan, 11 (7) Istanbul, Turkey, 15 (11) London, UK, 10 (9) Cairo, Egypt, 15 (11) More information about Ericsson’s activities within the two areas of city Life and sustainability: Society – The next age of megacities 15
  15. 15. Ericsson is shaping the future of mobile and broadband internet communications throughits continuous technology leadership.Providing innovative solutions in more than 180 countries, Ericsson is helping to createthe most powerful communication companies in the world.The content of this document is subject to revision withoutnotice due to continued progress in methodology, design andmanufacturing. Ericsson shall have no liability for any error ordamage of any kind resulting from the use of this document.Ericsson ABSE-126 25 Stockholm, SwedenTelephone +46 10 719 00 © Ericsson AB 2013