C it E i D l tCommunity Economic Development
in a Time of Change
Presentation to the Town of Amherst, NY
October 19, 2010
...
Agendag
• The Context
– “Big picture” (national and global) trends
– Trends in public financing and economic development
•...
Big Picture TrendsBig Picture Trends
Big Picture Trends
Changing DemographicsChanging Demographics
• The U.S population is increasing
– 2008 Census Bureau esti...
Amherst & Regional Trends
PopulationPopulation
Big Picture Trends
Changing DemographicsChanging Demographics
• The U.S population is becoming increasingly diverse
– 2005...
Amherst & Regional Trends
DiversityDiversity
Amherst & Regional Trends
ImmigrationImmigration
Big Picture Trends
Changing DemographicsChanging Demographics
• The Baby Boomers and the Millennials are the two largest
g...
Big Picture Trends
Changing DemographicsChanging Demographics
• What are Baby Boomers and Millennials looking for in
place...
Amherst & Regional Trends
Aging PopulationAging Population
Amherst Buffalo
Big Picture Trends
Changing Metropolitan Development PatternsChanging Metropolitan Development Patterns
• Foreclosure rate...
Big Picture Trends
Changing Metropolitan Development Patterns
• Shift in market demand from
Changing Metropolitan Developm...
Big Picture Trends
Walkable Urban CentersWalkable Urban Centers
T di i l D B ff l S b b D S f d CTTraditional Downtown: Bu...
Amherst & Regional Trends
CommutingCommuting
Big Picture Trends
Peak Oil: Declining Supply Rising DemandPeak Oil: Declining Supply, Rising Demand
Big Picture Trends
The Restoration EconomyThe Restoration Economy
Restorative development is a mode of economic activity
t...
Big Picture Trends
The Restoration EconomyThe Restoration Economy
• Trimodal Development Perspective (three
t l lif l )nat...
Big Picture Trends
A Slow Recovery from the Great RecessionA Slow Recovery from the Great Recession
• Indicators favor a U...
Big Picture Trends
A Slow Recovery from the Great RecessionA Slow Recovery from the Great Recession
The ULI October Real E...
Big Picture Trends
A Slow Recovery from the Great RecessionA Slow Recovery from the Great Recession
HOUSING
Source:The ULI...
Big Picture Trends
A Slow Recovery from the Great Recession
• Employment growth will continue to lag the recovery
A Slow R...
Trends in Public Sector Financing and
Community Economic Development
Trends in Public Sector Financing
Changing Revenue SourcesChanging Revenue Sources
• Property taxesp y
• Intergovernmental...
Trends in Public Sector Financing
Changing Revenue SourcesChanging Revenue Sources
• Capital financing of infrastructure• ...
Trends in Public Sector Financing
Changing Municipal Revenue Sources
• Decreased reliance on:
Changing Municipal Revenue S...
Trends in Public Sector Financing
Federal Funding Programs
• American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
Federal Fundin...
Trends in Public Sector Financing
Sustainable Communities Planning Grants
• $150 million made available in HUD FY 2010 Bud...
Trends in Community Economic Development
Evolving Approaches
from:
Evolving Approaches
• … a wholesale approach (offsettin...
Trends in Community Economic Development
Evolving ApproachesEvolving Approaches
Innovation economics is an economic doctri...
Trends in Community Economic Development
Evolving ApproachesEvolving Approaches
• Community revitalization rules (Stormy (...
Trends in Community Economic Development
Evolving ApproachesEvolving Approaches
• Community revitalization processes (Stor...
Trends in Community Economic Development
Evolving ApproachesEvolving Approaches
• Renewal engine: a nonprofit organization...
Successful Community Economic Development
Programs
Community Example
Chattanooga TNChattanooga, TN
• The legacy of an industrial city
– The nation’s dirtiest air in 1969 per...
Community Example
Chattanooga TNChattanooga, TN
Results
• Dramatically improved air quality
• $120 million riverfront / do...
Community Examples
Branding StrategiesBranding Strategies
• Austin, TX: Live Music Capital of the, p
World
• Indianapolis,...
Community Example
Cumberland MDCumberland, MD
Community Example
Cumberland MD
• Key road, railroad, and canal junction during the 1800s; was
the second largest MD city ...
Community Example
Cumberland MDCumberland, MD
Kelly Springfield Tire Plant to
Riverside Industrial Park
Community Example
Cumberland MD
• In 1993 Canal Place (historic terminus of the C&O Canal) was
designated Maryland’s first...
Community Example
Cumberland MD
• 2005 Sustainable Economic Development Strategic Plan
defines target niches related to C ...
Community Example
Hamilton ONT
• 504,559 residents in 2006
Hamilton, ONT
– 20% foreign born; half of recent immigrants fro...
Community Example
Hamilton ONT
• Comprehensive development strategy builds on strengths
Hamilton, ONT
– Four-tiered transp...
Community Example
Hamilton ONT
• McMaster University
Hamilton, ONT
– Health science, automotive technology, and materials ...
Components of Successful Economic Development
ProgramsPrograms
• Vision
– Define an economic position / niche based on ass...
Examples of Economic Development Toolsp p
• Data
– Inventories of available properties
• Development ordinances / codes
• ...
The Role of Incentives
• A useful tool but only part of the total package that attractsy p p g
businesses (typically not t...
Implications for AmherstImplications for Amherst
Implications for Amherst: Changes Over Time
• Amherst Community Development Plan (1975)
“A i b b it i i t f t lit
p g
– “A...
Implications for Amherst: Discussion
How can Amherst and the Buffalo region generate
investment through community economic...
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Community Economic Development in a Time of Change

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This presentation explores "big picture" demographic and economic trends as context for thinking about how Amherst and the Buffalo region might generate private investment in an era of fiscal scarcity.

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Community Economic Development in a Time of Change

  1. 1. C it E i D l tCommunity Economic Development in a Time of Change Presentation to the Town of Amherst, NY October 19, 2010 David Rouse Principal Wallace Roberts & ToddPrincipal, Wallace Roberts & Todd
  2. 2. Agendag • The Context – “Big picture” (national and global) trends – Trends in public financing and economic development • Successful Community Economic Development Programs – Community examples – Components • Implications for Amherst• Implications for Amherst – How can Amherst and the Buffalo region generate investment through community economic development?
  3. 3. Big Picture TrendsBig Picture Trends
  4. 4. Big Picture Trends Changing DemographicsChanging Demographics • The U.S population is increasing – 2008 Census Bureau estimate: 301.3 million – 2050 projection: 439 million / 46% increase (Census Bureau), 402 million / 32% increase (United Nations)million / 32% increase (United Nations) 2050 100 2008 100 Million+ Increase
  5. 5. Amherst & Regional Trends PopulationPopulation
  6. 6. Big Picture Trends Changing DemographicsChanging Demographics • The U.S population is becoming increasingly diverse – 2005 Census Bureau estimate: 45% of children under 5 belonged to minority groups 2008 Cens s B rea projection The U S ill become a “majorit– 2008 Census Bureau projection: The U.S. will become a majority minority” country by 2042 – In U.S. cities such as Boston and New York, immigration has sustained population levels and increased economic vitality – In Canada, the foreign-born population of Vancouver is 39% and Toronto 49%%
  7. 7. Amherst & Regional Trends DiversityDiversity
  8. 8. Amherst & Regional Trends ImmigrationImmigration
  9. 9. Big Picture Trends Changing DemographicsChanging Demographics • The Baby Boomers and the Millennials are the two largest generations in U.S. history – Baby Boomers: 76 million born between 1946 and 1964 Mill i l 78 illi b b t 1977 d 1996– Millennials: 78 million born between 1977 and 1996 Baby Boomers Millennials
  10. 10. Big Picture Trends Changing DemographicsChanging Demographics • What are Baby Boomers and Millennials looking for in places to live, work, and play? – Smaller, more compact housing products W lk bl b l i h i i d hi d id h– Walkable, urban places with amenities and things to do outside the home One poll found that 77 percent of Americans born after 1981 want to liveOne poll found that 77 percent of Americans born after 1981 want to live in an urban core. Another survey found that 71 percent of boomers placed walking distancey p p g to transit at the top of their list of housing demands. Alan Ehrenhalt, “Putting the Urban in Suburban,” Governing, March 9-10, 2009; quoted in William Lucy Foreclosing the Dream 2010quoted in William Lucy, Foreclosing the Dream, 2010
  11. 11. Amherst & Regional Trends Aging PopulationAging Population Amherst Buffalo
  12. 12. Big Picture Trends Changing Metropolitan Development PatternsChanging Metropolitan Development Patterns • Foreclosure rates during the recessiong have been higher in suburban /exurban areas than in cities This foreclosure pattern is…yet one more layer of evidence…(of) a shift in the momentum of metropolitan development – a revival of cities and ametropolitan development a revival of cities and a drawing back from the exurban fervor that drove so much development during the closing decades of the last century.y William Lucy, Foreclosing the Dream, 2010
  13. 13. Big Picture Trends Changing Metropolitan Development Patterns • Shift in market demand from Changing Metropolitan Development Patterns drivable suburban to walkable urban • Exurban (fringe) development = th t lthe next slum • Five types of walkable urban places T di i l d– Traditional downtowns – Downtown adjacents – Suburban town centersSuburban town centers – Strip commercial redevelopments – Greenfields (lifestyle centers) Source: Christopher Leinberger
  14. 14. Big Picture Trends Walkable Urban CentersWalkable Urban Centers T di i l D B ff l S b b D S f d CTTraditional Downtown: Buffalo Suburban Downtown: Stamford, CT Strip Redevelopment: Belmar, CO Lifestyle Center
  15. 15. Amherst & Regional Trends CommutingCommuting
  16. 16. Big Picture Trends Peak Oil: Declining Supply Rising DemandPeak Oil: Declining Supply, Rising Demand
  17. 17. Big Picture Trends The Restoration EconomyThe Restoration Economy Restorative development is a mode of economic activity that returns property, structures, or objects to an earlier condition, transforms them into a healthier and/or more functional condition, or replaces an unsalvageable structure i h i l dwithout consuming more land. Storm Cunningham, The Restoration Economy
  18. 18. Big Picture Trends The Restoration EconomyThe Restoration Economy • Trimodal Development Perspective (three t l lif l )natural lifecycles) – New development Maintenance (built environment) /– Maintenance (built environment) / conservation (natural environment) – Restorative development Restorative development (restoration of the built and natural environments) is the fastest growing of those threenatural environments) is the fastest growing of those three modes, and it will soon be the largest of the three realms of development. Storm Cunningham, The Restoration Economy
  19. 19. Big Picture Trends A Slow Recovery from the Great RecessionA Slow Recovery from the Great Recession • Indicators favor a U-shaped recovery after a stimulus-fueled spike up in the last quarter of 2009 – Weak, below-trend growth for a number of years C ti t f 2011 th i GDP 2 4% (Th E i t– Consensus estimate for 2011 growth in GDP = 2.4% (The Economist, October 2010) US GDP GROWTH RATEUS GDP GROWTH RATE ??
  20. 20. Big Picture Trends A Slow Recovery from the Great RecessionA Slow Recovery from the Great Recession The ULI October Real Estate Barometer is “laced with fluctuations in both directions but even the most positive gains are still very weak when compared todirections, but even the most positive gains are still very weak when compared to historic trends.” COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT PROPERTY
  21. 21. Big Picture Trends A Slow Recovery from the Great RecessionA Slow Recovery from the Great Recession HOUSING Source:The ULI Real Estate Barometer, October 2010
  22. 22. Big Picture Trends A Slow Recovery from the Great Recession • Employment growth will continue to lag the recovery A Slow Recovery from the Great Recession • Sept. 2010: +64,000 private sector jobs, -159,000 public sector jobs (includes -76,000 Census jobs) • Local governments face an era of fiscal scarcity – 88% of city finance officers surveyed in 2009 reported not being able to meet current year’s financial needsmeet current year s financial needs – Depressed property values will continue to depress real estate tax revenues – As stimulus spending winds down, federal and state deficit cutting will reduce transfers to local governments SSources: Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Mihm, Crisis Economics (2010) Lincoln Land Use Institute, Municipal Revenues & Land Policies (2010)
  23. 23. Trends in Public Sector Financing and Community Economic Development
  24. 24. Trends in Public Sector Financing Changing Revenue SourcesChanging Revenue Sources • Property taxesp y • Intergovernmental transfers – Federal – State • Local sales tax • Local income / wage tax – Resident – Commuter Source:Source: Lincoln Land Use Institute, Municipal Revenues & Land Policies (2010)
  25. 25. Trends in Public Sector Financing Changing Revenue SourcesChanging Revenue Sources • Capital financing of infrastructure• Capital financing of infrastructure – Bonds (general obligation, revenue) – Privatization (design/build/operate/maintain) • Sub-municipal financing techniques – Business improvement districts – Tax increment financing Community facility districts– Community facility districts Source: Lincoln Land Use Institute, Municipal Revenues & Land Policies (2010)
  26. 26. Trends in Public Sector Financing Changing Municipal Revenue Sources • Decreased reliance on: Changing Municipal Revenue Sources – Property taxes (long-term trend) – Intergovernmental transfers (reduced state aid, avoidance of / skepticism about federal funding)skepticism about federal funding) • Increased reliance on: Other taxes (e g sales income gasoline) depending on anti tax– Other taxes (e.g., sales, income, gasoline) depending on anti-tax sentiment – Charges for services / fees – Public / private partnerships, privatization agreements – Other financing techniques (e.g., TIF, BIDs) Source: Lincoln Land Use Institute, Municipal Revenues & Land Policies (2010)
  27. 27. Trends in Public Sector Financing Federal Funding Programs • American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 Federal Funding Programs y – Included $90 billion for investments in clean energy – Transportation Investment Generating Economic Recovery (TIGER): $2 1 billion made a ailable so far for m ltimodal(TIGER): $2.1 billion made available so far for multimodal transportation projects HUD/DOT/EPA S t i bl C iti P t hi• HUD/DOT/EPA Sustainable Communities Partnership – June 2009 agreement to coordinate federal housing, transportation, and environmental investments • These two programs reflect likely future direction of federal fundingg – Surface Transportation Act Reauthorization is pending
  28. 28. Trends in Public Sector Financing Sustainable Communities Planning Grants • $150 million made available in HUD FY 2010 Budget Sustainable Communities Planning Grants • $150 million made available in HUD FY 2010 Budget • Two Types of Grants Sustainable Communities Regional Planning Grants: $98– Sustainable Communities Regional Planning Grants: $98 million awards to 45 regions on October 14, 2010 – Community Challenge Planning Grants: up to $75 million in grant awards to communities currently pending • Future funding rounds anticipated
  29. 29. Trends in Community Economic Development Evolving Approaches from: Evolving Approaches • … a wholesale approach (offsetting capital costs by providing land and infrastructure), to…p g ) • …a retail approach (reducing the cost of doing business via tax abatements), to… • …a systems approach (addressing quality of life issues to increase appeal to business owners, workers, and entrepreneurs) Adapted from Elaine Carmichael, Principal, Economic Stewardship, Inc.
  30. 30. Trends in Community Economic Development Evolving ApproachesEvolving Approaches Innovation economics is an economic doctrine that reformulates the traditional model of economic growth so that knowledge, technology, entrepreneurship, and innovation are positioned at the center of the model… Source: Wikipedia
  31. 31. Trends in Community Economic Development Evolving ApproachesEvolving Approaches • Community revitalization rules (Stormy ( Cunningham) – Rewealth: base our economy on renewing what we have (restorative development) – Integrate restoration of natural, built, and i i tsocioeconomic assets – Engage all stakeholders in the revitalized future of their communityof their community
  32. 32. Trends in Community Economic Development Evolving ApproachesEvolving Approaches • Community revitalization processes (Stormy p ( Cunningham) – Establish a shared vision of the community’s future based on renewal – Embed renewal in the community’s culture th h li i l ti tthrough policies, regulations, support programs, incentives, etc. – Partner to build the critical mass of resources– Partner to build the critical mass of resources and knowledge to accomplish the vision
  33. 33. Trends in Community Economic Development Evolving ApproachesEvolving Approaches • Renewal engine: a nonprofit organizationg p g to promote community revitalization on an ongoing basis – Forms the renewal vision and strategy – Fosters a renewal culture that attracts ireinvestment – Establishes bonds of trust and shared values needed for public and private entities to workneeded for public and private entities to work together
  34. 34. Successful Community Economic Development Programs
  35. 35. Community Example Chattanooga TNChattanooga, TN • The legacy of an industrial city – The nation’s dirtiest air in 1969 per the federal government – Socioeconomic divisions / challengesSocioeconomic divisions / challenges • Response – Citizen task force appointed to oversee cleanup (Air Pollution Control Board) – 1984 community visioning process (Vision 2000) – Public/private partnership formedp p p (Chattanooga Venture)
  36. 36. Community Example Chattanooga TNChattanooga, TN Results • Dramatically improved air quality • $120 million riverfront / downtown revitalization • 3 national awards for outstanding livability in 10 years
  37. 37. Community Examples Branding StrategiesBranding Strategies • Austin, TX: Live Music Capital of the, p World • Indianapolis, IN: Amateur Sports Capital of the World • Chautauqua County, NY: World’s Learning Center
  38. 38. Community Example Cumberland MDCumberland, MD
  39. 39. Community Example Cumberland MD • Key road, railroad, and canal junction during the 1800s; was the second largest MD city after Baltimore Cumberland, MD the second largest MD city after Baltimore • The “Queen City” developed as a manufacturing powerhouse during the 19th and 20th centuries but declined after WWII dueg to industrial plant closures • In 1987 the Kelly Springfield Tire Plant was the last major manufacturing plant to close (relocated to Akron, Ohio) • The City’s population has declined from 39,483 residents in 1940 t 20 495 ( ti t ) i 20081940 census to 20,495 (estimate) in 2008
  40. 40. Community Example Cumberland MDCumberland, MD Kelly Springfield Tire Plant to Riverside Industrial Park
  41. 41. Community Example Cumberland MD • In 1993 Canal Place (historic terminus of the C&O Canal) was designated Maryland’s first state heritage area Cumberland, MD designated Maryland s first state heritage area • In 1996 the City adopted a new Comprehensive Plan with a vision statement to guide revitalization effortsvision statement to guide revitalization efforts
  42. 42. Community Example Cumberland MD • 2005 Sustainable Economic Development Strategic Plan defines target niches related to C mberland’s assets Cumberland, MD defines target niches related to Cumberland’s assets • Priority business / industry sectors – Tourism – Restoration / rehabilitation (built, natural environments) • Priority social / occupational groups – Technological entrepreneurs A ti t– Artists
  43. 43. Community Example Hamilton ONT • 504,559 residents in 2006 Hamilton, ONT – 20% foreign born; half of recent immigrants from Asia and Middle East • Traditional economy based on heavy manufacturing (known as the Steel Capital of Canada)as the Steel Capital of Canada) – Economy has shifted towards services, especially health sciences, over the last decade • Rated as 6th best place to invest in Canada (2nd in Ontario) by Real Estate Investment Network (REIN Canada)
  44. 44. Community Example Hamilton ONT • Comprehensive development strategy builds on strengths Hamilton, ONT – Four-tiered transportation hub – Manufacturing excellence – Reputation for educational qualityp q y • Four fundamental principles: innovation, diversification, entrepreneurship, and triple bottom line • Quality of life is a key focus area to attract business as well as the “best and brightest” employees and citizens
  45. 45. Community Example Hamilton ONT • McMaster University Hamilton, ONT – Health science, automotive technology, and materials and manufacturing research and development – McMaster Innovation Park • City Planning and Economic Development Department – “One-Stop Shop” for three key business services: Small Business Enterprise Centre, Business Facilitation (municipal planning process guidance), Licensing and Zoning – Downtown and Community Renewal Division Programs
  46. 46. Components of Successful Economic Development ProgramsPrograms • Vision – Define an economic position / niche based on assets • Strategygy – Develop a game plan to realize the vision • CapacityCapacity – Leverage resources through partnerships across sectors (public, private, institutional / nonprofit) • Program – Implement the vision and strategy through coordinated use of economic development toolseconomic development tools
  47. 47. Examples of Economic Development Toolsp p • Data – Inventories of available properties • Development ordinances / codes • Marketing – Branding and outreach to targeted groups • Infrastructure – Investments in roads, utility, telecommunications, etc. • Financing – TIF, BID, NYS Main Street Program, etc. • Incentives
  48. 48. The Role of Incentives • A useful tool but only part of the total package that attractsy p p g businesses (typically not the deciding factor) • Be aware of downsides f f f– Costs of subsidies provided can exceed benefits in terms of jobs, tax revenues generated – Subsidies can put existing businesses at a competitive disadvantagep g p g – Jobs created often go to outsiders rather than current residents – Businesses can leave when subsidies expire
  49. 49. Implications for AmherstImplications for Amherst
  50. 50. Implications for Amherst: Changes Over Time • Amherst Community Development Plan (1975) “A i b b it i i t f t lit p g – “A growing suburban community, recipient of metropolitan expansion…” • Bicentennial Comprehensive Plan (2003)• Bicentennial Comprehensive Plan (2003) – “Become a model for effective reinvestment and revitalization of older neighborhoods and commercial areas…”
  51. 51. Implications for Amherst: Discussion How can Amherst and the Buffalo region generate investment through community economic development?g y p David Rouse, Wallace Roberts & Todd drouse@ph.wrtdesign.com 215-772-1465 Wallace Roberts & Todd, LLC

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