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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                                    10th February 2012
         Indices *              Close           % Chg.     Mirroring the negative global market cues, the domestic
 BSE SENSEX                    17830.75           0.70     markets witnessed a subdue opening. The over all trend
 S&P CNX NIFTY                  5412.35           0.82     remained sluggish and range bound as Nifty traded below the
 NIFTY FEB. FUT.                5437.05           0.90     5400 resistance level. However, buying momentum picked up
 India VIX                       23.30           -3.99     in the afternoon session and Nifty witnessed a sharp rise
                                                           crossing the 5400 resistance level. The Nifty managed to
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                     sustain above the 5400 level and the markets ended the day
                     Level 1    Level 2         Level 3    with moderate gains to close near the highs for the day. The
Support               5400       5327            5161      top gainers for the day were Rel. Power, BPCL, Tata Power,
Resistance            5681       5728            5885      Sterlite, Jindal Steel, SAIL, Bajaj Auto, Kotak Bank, HDFC
                                                           Bank and Wipro.
        Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY
50 Day SMA                      4919.57                    Technically, the Nifty has finally managed to close above
                                               ◄Negative
100 Day SMA                     4970.97                    the 5400 level on back of robust market breadth amidst
200 Day SMA                     5180.67        ◄Positive
                                                           higher volumes, which is a positive sign for the markets.
                                                           The global market set of cues are divergent. The
             Volume (Lacs Shares)          *               domestic markets are likely to witness a flat to negative
                   09/02/12    08/02/12         % Chg.     opening. Moreover, the Nifty remains placed above its
BSE                  3313        3127             5.95     50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMA, which is a positive
NSE                  9886        9366             5.55
                                                           sign for the markets. The MACD, RSI and KST are also
                                                           placed above their respective averages, which would
Total               13199       12493             5.65
                                                           help in fueling further buying support. The KST and
             Turnover ( ` Crores)          *               MACD are placed in the positive territory. Nifty remains
                   09/02/12    08/02/12         % Chg.
                                                           placed above its April’2011 descending trend line, which
                                                           augurs well for the markets. The -DI line is moving lower.
BSE                 3326.44     3630.37          -8.37
                                                           However, the ADX line and +DI line are placed above the
NSE                15683.77    17128.15          -8.43
                                                           30 level, indicating buyers are gaining strength. However,
NSE F&O            112219.47   122040.93         -8.05     a few technical negatives continue to prevail. The
Total              131229.68   142799.45         -8.10     Stochastic remains placed below its average. More so
                                                           the Stochastic and RSI are also placed in the over bought
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)              *
                                                           zone. The 50-day SMA continues to remain placed below
                   09/02/12    08/02/12         % Chg.
                                                           the 100-day SMA. All these conditions would lead to
Index Fut.          480034      569388           -15.69    regular bouts of profit taking and selling pressure,
Stock Fut.          621380      633042           -1.84     especially at higher levels. The market sentiment remains
Index Opt.         2842171     3131803           -9.25     cautious as markets are placed in the over bought zone.
Stock Opt.          194393      192079            1.20     Now, it is important that the markets witness follow up
Total              4137978     4526312           -6.35     buying support at higher levels for the Nifty to sustain
                                                           above the 5400 level. Intermediate bouts of profit taking
             Market Breadth (NSE) *                        and selling pressure are likely to be witnessed. In the
Advances                         1014                      meanwhile the markets would take cues from the
Declines                          490                      earnings season, the global markets and the crude
Same                              60                       prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed at 5400, 5327,
Total                            1564
                                                           5161, 5037 and 4987. The Nifty faces resistance at the 5681,
                                                           5728 and 5885 levels.
A/D Ratio                       2.07 : 1
NOTE -   *- Source – BSE & NSE
Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technicals), Email Id sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                     Yahoo Chat Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in

                                                                  Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              th
             4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                                www.keynotecapitals.com
Short Term Trading Ideas Based On Technical Analysis (5 - 7 Days)

                                                                                     Stop
                                                        Initiation        Stop       Loss                      Target
        Stock             Close          Action           Price          Loss *       (%)          Target       (%)            Remarks
                                                                                                                           TGT of 1707
                                                                                                                           Achieved
                                                                                                                           given Buy @
                                                                                                                           1647 on
Bajaj Auto                1701.70       Buy Above          1709.00       1677.00        1.87         1780          4.15    08/02/12
                                                                                                                           TGT of 1576
                                                                                                                           Achieved
                                                                                                                           given Buy @
                                                                                                                           1486 on
BEL                       1544.75       Buy Above          1550.00       1512.00        2.45         1635          5.48    08/02/12
                                                                                                                           TGT of 375
                                                                                                                           Achieved
                                                                                                                           given Buy @
                                                                                                                           362 on
Bhushan Steel               397.05      Buy Above            402.00       385.00        4.23          440          9.45    02/02/12
                                                                                                                           TGT of 380
                                                                                                                           Achieved
                                                                                                                           given Buy @
                                                                                                                           360 on
Cairn                       382.35      Buy Above            385.00       373.75        2.92          410          6.49    07/02/12
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on Closing basis.

                                                                  Intra-day Resistance                        Intra-day Support
        Indices              Close         Pivot Point           R1       R2         R3                 S1           S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                      17831                17773       17937      18043          18313         17667        17503         17233
S&P CNX NIFTY                    5412                 5392        5444        5476          5561            5360        5307         5223
NIFTY FEB. FUT.                  5437                 5398        5491        5545          5692            5344        5251         5104




                                                                Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              th
             4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                              www.keynotecapitals.com
Disclaimer
This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be
reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are
required to observe these restrictions.
This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based
upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any
jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote
Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment
objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.
We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable
though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected
with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their
own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this
material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including
those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial
risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s
price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not
match with a report on a company’s fundamentals.
Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to
update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or
other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking
statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment
businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.
We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short
positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other
transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the
financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company
(ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and
opinions.
The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal
views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation
was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior
written consent.




                                                       Keynote Capitals Ltd.
     th
    4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                     www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote technicals daily report for 100212

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 10th February 2012 Indices * Close % Chg. Mirroring the negative global market cues, the domestic BSE SENSEX 17830.75 0.70 markets witnessed a subdue opening. The over all trend S&P CNX NIFTY 5412.35 0.82 remained sluggish and range bound as Nifty traded below the NIFTY FEB. FUT. 5437.05 0.90 5400 resistance level. However, buying momentum picked up India VIX 23.30 -3.99 in the afternoon session and Nifty witnessed a sharp rise crossing the 5400 resistance level. The Nifty managed to S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels sustain above the 5400 level and the markets ended the day Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 with moderate gains to close near the highs for the day. The Support 5400 5327 5161 top gainers for the day were Rel. Power, BPCL, Tata Power, Resistance 5681 5728 5885 Sterlite, Jindal Steel, SAIL, Bajaj Auto, Kotak Bank, HDFC Bank and Wipro. Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY 50 Day SMA 4919.57 Technically, the Nifty has finally managed to close above ◄Negative 100 Day SMA 4970.97 the 5400 level on back of robust market breadth amidst 200 Day SMA 5180.67 ◄Positive higher volumes, which is a positive sign for the markets. The global market set of cues are divergent. The Volume (Lacs Shares) * domestic markets are likely to witness a flat to negative 09/02/12 08/02/12 % Chg. opening. Moreover, the Nifty remains placed above its BSE 3313 3127 5.95 50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMA, which is a positive NSE 9886 9366 5.55 sign for the markets. The MACD, RSI and KST are also placed above their respective averages, which would Total 13199 12493 5.65 help in fueling further buying support. The KST and Turnover ( ` Crores) * MACD are placed in the positive territory. Nifty remains 09/02/12 08/02/12 % Chg. placed above its April’2011 descending trend line, which augurs well for the markets. The -DI line is moving lower. BSE 3326.44 3630.37 -8.37 However, the ADX line and +DI line are placed above the NSE 15683.77 17128.15 -8.43 30 level, indicating buyers are gaining strength. However, NSE F&O 112219.47 122040.93 -8.05 a few technical negatives continue to prevail. The Total 131229.68 142799.45 -8.10 Stochastic remains placed below its average. More so the Stochastic and RSI are also placed in the over bought F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * zone. The 50-day SMA continues to remain placed below 09/02/12 08/02/12 % Chg. the 100-day SMA. All these conditions would lead to Index Fut. 480034 569388 -15.69 regular bouts of profit taking and selling pressure, Stock Fut. 621380 633042 -1.84 especially at higher levels. The market sentiment remains Index Opt. 2842171 3131803 -9.25 cautious as markets are placed in the over bought zone. Stock Opt. 194393 192079 1.20 Now, it is important that the markets witness follow up Total 4137978 4526312 -6.35 buying support at higher levels for the Nifty to sustain above the 5400 level. Intermediate bouts of profit taking Market Breadth (NSE) * and selling pressure are likely to be witnessed. In the Advances 1014 meanwhile the markets would take cues from the Declines 490 earnings season, the global markets and the crude Same 60 prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed at 5400, 5327, Total 1564 5161, 5037 and 4987. The Nifty faces resistance at the 5681, 5728 and 5885 levels. A/D Ratio 2.07 : 1 NOTE - *- Source – BSE & NSE Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technicals), Email Id sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Chat Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Short Term Trading Ideas Based On Technical Analysis (5 - 7 Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Target Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks TGT of 1707 Achieved given Buy @ 1647 on Bajaj Auto 1701.70 Buy Above 1709.00 1677.00 1.87 1780 4.15 08/02/12 TGT of 1576 Achieved given Buy @ 1486 on BEL 1544.75 Buy Above 1550.00 1512.00 2.45 1635 5.48 08/02/12 TGT of 375 Achieved given Buy @ 362 on Bhushan Steel 397.05 Buy Above 402.00 385.00 4.23 440 9.45 02/02/12 TGT of 380 Achieved given Buy @ 360 on Cairn 382.35 Buy Above 385.00 373.75 2.92 410 6.49 07/02/12 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on Closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 17831 17773 17937 18043 18313 17667 17503 17233 S&P CNX NIFTY 5412 5392 5444 5476 5561 5360 5307 5223 NIFTY FEB. FUT. 5437 5398 5491 5545 5692 5344 5251 5104 Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com