2. Christchurch
 Largest city in South Island
 Third largest city in NZ
 Population, 425k
 Transport:
 International Airport
 Large Port (inland ports)
 Flat terrain – cycle-friendly
 Bus system (central focus)
 Car travel dominates (>80%)
3.  4 Stage Model (land use ---> travel)
 Uses:
 Infrastructure/PT system assessments
 Demands for lower tiered models
 Owned by regional/local Govt agencies
 Calibrated to 2006
 4 Stage Models checked every 5 years
 Validation check planned after 2011 (Census)
Christchurch Transportation Model (CTM)
4. But then…..
 Earthquakes, 2010-2011
 Half roads suffered some damage
 CBD
 Closed, businesses forced to relocate
 Over 1000 buildings (1/3) demolished
 Residential
 Significant damage in east
 Census delayed to 2013
 Rebuild still ongoing
5. The Project
Check the CTM predictions for 2013 against observed
How is the model performing?
Model inputs:
 Land use from 2013 Census
 Transport network – roads & intersections
 Transport network – bus system
Normally straight-forward but……
6. The Challenge
 Massive shift in land use distribution
 Roadworks still prevalent in 2013
 2015 hub-and-spoke buses on 2013 network
 Had to work with data available
 Lots of traffic counts –> lots of processing
 Software update => results change
7. Change to the Landscape - Residential
Waimakariri
Selwyn
8. Change to the Landscape - Residential
River corridor
Hill suburbs
15. Bus Network
 Bus exchange
 Temporary 2013
 New 2015
 Bus routes:
 Through routes 2013
 Hub-and-spoke 2015
 Change in road directions
19. Traffic Counts
 Link counts required on screenlines
 Significant amount of data available
 But ….
 Not processed (raw files, not geo-referenced)
 Processing/mapping significant (and tedious) task
 Inconsistent formats – more manual intervention
 Directional discrepancies
20. Traffic Counts – Lessons
 Never underestimate data processing required
 Model useful tool to check counts
21.  Significant gaps in screenlines…
 …but no point counting in some areas (road
works/red zones)
 Solution:
 Include factored old counts to complete the
screenlines
Traffic Counts – Mind the Gap
32. Summary
 Significant changes in Christchurch
 Variation in counts – model used to identify
outliers
 The model:
 CTM outputs checked using 2013/15 observed
 CTM performing well
 Next challenge:
 Ongoing monitoring of changing land use patterns
Editor's Notes
Roads – 50000 road surface defects
We were commissioned to check the model
Normally relatively straight-forward but….
Client wanted to test 2015 buses in 2013 network
By zone
Pop increase 2006->2013 = 10k
Zones with increases, +37k
Zones with decreases, -27k
By zone
Emp 2006-> 2013 = +3k
(206k jobs in 2013)
Increases, +41k
Decreases, -38k
Employment in CBD
53k in 2006
29k in 2013
Reduction of 24k jobs
TfC (Transport for Christchurch)
Orange = site with roadworks
Red = site with a road closure
April 2016
14 road closures in CBD (as of April 2016)
July 2016
174 roadworks sites and 18 closures in CBD
One way east-west pairs with Tuam St operating two-way in between
Pink = bus exchange
Notice buildings in the city centre
Quite an empty CBD in 2013
Bus exchange shifted one block west and south
One way pairs unchanged
2015
Bus exchange shifted one block east
Lichfield St (north) now local access only and Tuam St changed from two to one way operation
900 ECO files for ChCh City – duplicates
Red = counts from 2012 to 2014
Blue = counts from 2003 to 2007 that have been globally factored to fill in the gaps in the screenlines
Green – new counts that are not on screenlines
Route CC2 = red route running from east-to-west south of City
Route CC2 = red route running from east-to-west south of City
Inbound = eastbound
Issue on one day, speed over one section dropped from 35kph to less than 5kph. Probably roadworks
Graphic based on corridor by DESTINATION of bus
Daily total vehicles (lights + heavies) GEH
Green, less than 5
Orange, 5-7.5
Red 7.5-12
Black > 12