Improving residential sector in TIMES-Kazakhstan, presentation etsap residential sector-v3

1. Improving residential sector in TIMES-
Kazakhstan
Aiymgul Kerimray, Rocco De Miglio, Aidyn Bakdolotov
October 23rd 2015
ETSAP Workshop
Sophia Antipolis, France

2. HOUSEHOLDS ACCESS TO
ENERGY SERVICES
100%
77%
67%
54.40%
3% 0.60%
22.10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Electricity District
heating
District
water
heating
Pipeline
gas
2011
Urban
Rural
Committee of statistics (2014)
2

3. AVAILABILITY OF ENERGY
CONSUMING DEVICES, %
3
99.5 99.4
85.7
78.2
86.9
15
8
35.2
90.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Committee of statistics (2014)

4. RESIDENTIAL ENERGY
CONSUMPTION, ktoe
• 28% of Total Final
Consumption
• Average annual
increase by 5%
• Coal, district
heating and gas
dominate (67%)
4
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Coal Oil Products Gas
Biomass Electricity District heat

5. REGIONAL DIFFERENCES
5
Residential energy consumption by fuel type, by regions, TJ
Construction of gas pipelines to the North, East and Central Kazakhstan is
still under the discussion

6. HEATING DEGREE DAYS, ºC-days
6
• Heating is a basic need for survival in Kazakhstan
• There were no studies to identify how many of households were unable to
keep sufficiently warm their home in Kazakhstan
NASA (2008)
7410
5472
4900 4735 4560
3795 3712
3364 3092 3001 2982
2370
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000

7. AVERAGE ANNUAL INCOME OF
HOUSEHOLD, USD, CURRENT PRICES
Committee of statistics (2014)
7715
10813 9984
12376
9163
8664
10593
7881
9821
15368
8464
8790
7353
8024
12650 13221
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2006 2013 Country average 2006 Country average 2013
7

8. MAIN PROBLEMS IN THE HEATING
SECTOR
• Losses of heat in buildings reach 30%
• Losses of heat in lines - 17.5%
• 32% of housing stock require
refurbishment
• Average heat consumption in residential
buildings – 270kWh/m2
 Average in Europe – 100-120kWh/m2
• Absence of metering devices
Program of modernization of housing maintenance
and utilities (2015)
REASONS
• Low energy prices
• Low interest of homeowners to pay
for refurbishment
• Low effectiveness of mechanisms
for maintenance and
refurbishment of buildings
UNDP Kazakhstan (2012)
8
56%
22%
14%
8%
Losses of heat in buildings
draught and
ventilation
walls
windows
Floors and
ceilings

9. HEAT PRICES FOR RESIDENTIAL
USERS
OECD (2012)
9
• Tariffs do not reflect true cost of heat supply
• Low price of coal

10. COAL CONSUMPTION
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
kgoe/pers.
Coal consumption in the residential sector per
capita
Kazakhstan is the third country in the world with the highest coal consumption
per capita in the residential sector
IEA (2012)
REASONS
• Cheap fuel
• Absence of alternative of
supply
• Capital intensive stoves
Solid fuel fired stove in Kazakhstan (Taraz)
10

11. FIRST RESULTS OF HOUSEHOLDS
SURVEY
Primary data of the three households surveys were obtained:
• Main interview (including housing conditions and other)
• Income and expenditures
• Checklist of households composition
Total number of surveyed households: 11808
11

12. FIRST RESULTS OF HOUSEHOLDS
SURVEY
12
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Urban Rural
Number of households by tenure status
Blank
Tenant
Owner occupied
Other
Akimat
47%
44%
9%
0%
Number of households by type of dwelling
Apartment
Detached house
Part of house
Room in apartment
24%
45%
23%
5% 3%
Number of households by living space
10-30m2
31-50m2
51-80m2
2%
28%
51%
18%
1%
Number of households by the year of
construction of dwelling
1910-1950
1951-1970
1971-1990
1991-2010
2011 and later
Further results on energy expenditure will be available soon
Using the year of construction of dwelling sand the fuels used by dwelling the building
types can be disaggregated in the model

13. TIMES-KAZAKHSTAN MODEL
• Developed over the period of 2011-2013 within the project funded by Ministry of
education and science of the Republic of Kazakhstan
• Is now being updated within the ongoing Project (2015-2016) “Development of
Policy Options for Mid- and Long-term Emissions Pathways and Role of Carbon
Pricing” funded by PMR
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
GDP GDP per capita Population
• Base year was changed from 2009 to 2011
• Updated energy balances as a sum of 16
regional energy balances were
represented
• New technologies database was updated
• Demand projections were updated, GDP
growth is expected at 2% (previous
assumption 6%)
13

14. TIMES 16 REGIONS KAZAKHSTAN
MODEL
• Was started in 2014 under the project funded by Ministry of education and Science
of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
14
At the final stage, expected to be finished by the end of 2015, trade matrices, user
constraints to be fine-tuned, demand projections to be elaborated, calibration to be
improved
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2011
2030
2020
2011
2030
2020
2011
2030
2020
2011
2030
2020
2011
2030
2020
2011
2030
2020
2011
2030
2020
2011
2030
2020
AKM AKT ALM ATY WKZ ZHA KAR KST KZL MAN SKZ PAV NKZ EKZ AST ALC
First results- TFC by regions, by fuels, TJ
oil products
heat
electricity
gas
coal

15. ASSUMPTIONS ON ENERGY END-USE AND
DEMAND DRIVERS AND ELASTICITIES
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Lighting
Miscellaneous
Electric Energy
Residential Other
Energy
Dishwasher
Clothes Washers
Residential
Cooking
Clothes Drying
Refrigerators and
Freezers
15
Demand Driver
Elasticity to
the DRIVER
Cooling GDP 1
Clothes drying
GDP per
capita 0.2
Clothes
washing
GDP per
capita 0.2
Dish washing
GDP per
capita 1
Other electric
appliances
GDP per
capita 1.59
Heating Population 1
Hot water
GDP per
capita 0.8
Cooking Population 1
Lighting
GDP per
capita 0.2
Residential
other
GDP per
capita 1
Refrigeration
GDP per
capita 0.34

16. RES OF FUEL SUPPLY FOR THE
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Natural gas and district heating
distribution systems were split to
• dense
• medium
• sparse locations
with corresponding investment costs
and efficiencies
Installation of automatic controllers
and heat metering devices was
included in the model
16

17. RES OF RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
TECHNOLOGIES
“Unment demand” process was added to monitor the gap between theoretical
thermal requirement and actual consumption and test different policies aiming
at reducing the unmet demand 17
Three additional
“virtual” processes:
• “Unmet” demand
• Savings from new
buildings
• Refurbishment of
buildings

18. PRELIMINARY RESULTS – TOTAL
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
18
Natural gas rises strongly in the BAU
Refurbishment measures are not in the solution. Without any incentive, and
in spite of the high thermal needs, costs are higher than other options to
come to the solution
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030
Natural gas
LPG
District heating
Electricity
Diesel
Coal
Biomass

19. PRELIMINARY RESULTS – HEATING
19
Even with investment costs defined for constructing additional heat lines district
heating is a preferred option. Improved, dense locations distribution system was
chosen
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030
Energy consumption for heating, PJ
LPG
Biomass
Oil products
Electricity
District heating
Gas
Coal

20. PRELIMINARY RESULTS – WATER
HEATING
20
Gas and district heating prevail in the solution for water heating
Gasification plan of the Government is still under question
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030
Energy consumption for water heating, PJ
LPG
Biomass
Oil products
Electricity
District heating
Gas
Coal

21. CHALLENGES, OPEN ISSUES
21/19
• Low quality and insufficient data on energy
 different sources show different data
 need to transform fuel-energy balances to IEA format, time
consuming
• Residential energy consumption survey has not been conducted,
data on energy split by end-use is not collected
• Few studies on energy demand projections in Kazakhstan
• Theoretical thermal requirement is difficult to estimate due to the
absence of data by building types, and corresponding U-values
• No studies on indoor air pollution and health effects from solid
fuels combustion in Kazakhstan
• Few studies on fuel poverty in Kazakhstan
21

22. FUTURE WORK
22/19
• Conduct scenario analysis with TIMES-KZK and TIMES 16RKZ model,
compare results
• Obtain drivers and elasticities from CGE model for Kazakhstan developed
by DIW Econ
• Get energy audit reports of buildings and disaggregate buildings by type of
building/age in the TIMES-Kazakhstan model
• Estimate fuel poverty in Kazakhstan with data from households survey
• “energy expenditure greater than 10% of disposable income”
• “households with energy expenditures higher than median level and whose
income after energy expenditures would be below official poverty line” Hills
(2012)
• Conduct a study on indoor air pollution and health effects from solid fuel
combustion
• Internalize external costs of health effects from solid fuel combustion in
TIMES-KZK model
22

23. THANK YOU FOR YOUR
ATTENTION!
Aiymgul Kerimray
aiymgul.kerimray@nu.edu.kz
23