Modelling alternative fuel production technologies for the Danish energy and transport system

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Modelling alternative fuel production technologies for the Danish energy and transport system

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Modelling alternative fuel production technologies for the Danish energy and transport system

  1. 1. Modelling alternative fuel production technologies for Denmark 69th Semi-Annual ETSAP Meeting UCC, Cork - 30th May 2016 Giada Venturini PhD Student System Analysis DTU Management Engineering give@dtu.dk
  2. 2. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Outline • Introduction - Danish energy in figures • Use of residual biomass • Alternative pathways for the use of straw • Scenarios in TIMES-DK • Conclusions and further work 2 7 June 2016
  3. 3. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Danish energy in figures 3 7 June 2016 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015* Primary Energy Production (PJ) Crude Oil Natural Gas Waste, Non Renewable Renewable Energy Input data retrieved from Danish Energy Agency, 2015 - http://www.ens.dk • Renewable energy constitutes 22% of the total energy production in 2015 • Biomass accounts for 54% of the renewable energy supply and 11% of the total production in 2014 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2010 2012 2013 2014 Renewable Energy Supply (PJ) Solar Wind Biomass Bio Oil Biogas Heat pumps
  4. 4. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Residual biomass in Denmark • Straw from agriculture is one of the most abundant (and partially unused) among residual biomass resources: 90 PJ/year. • Half of the harvested straw is left on fields, sparking the ongoing discussion on its optimal use. 4 7 June 2016 23% 16% 11% 50% Current use of straw (tons) Energy Fodder Bedding Left on the field Statistics Denmark, 2016Danish Energy Agency, 2015 25% 14% 3% 9% 28% 21% Energy use of biomass resources (PJ) Straw Wood chips Wood pellets Wood waste Waste, biodegradable Wood
  5. 5. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark What is the optimal use of straw in the future? A number of alternative pathways can be considered: 1. Left on the fields 2. Production of biogas - anaerobic digestion 3. Heat and power - CHP plants and boilers 4. Production of 2G bioethanol 5. Production of synthetic natural gas (SNG) - gasification 6. Production of bioalcohols and biodiesel - gasification and Fischer- Tropsch synthesis 5 7 June 2016
  6. 6. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 1. Straw is left on the agriculture fields with consequent beneficial soil conditioning. Additional effects are change in soil carbon balance and CO2 emissions. Alternative pathways to enhance straw use 6 7 June 2016 PloughingStraw Soil fertilizers CO2-C
  7. 7. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 2. Straw is used as feedstock in anaerobic digester for the production of biogas. Digestate is a co-product which can be spread on fields as fertilizer and thus affecting the carbon storage. Alternative pathways to enhance straw use 7 7 June 2016 Straw Waste Manure Anaerobic Digestion Biogas Digestate Spreading on fields Fertilizers NPK CO2-C CH4 Heat
  8. 8. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 2. Biogas can be upgraded to natural gas quality (SNG) either through CO2 removal or by methanation with hydrogenation. Alternative pathways to enhance straw use 8 7 June 2016 Biogas Methanation Hydrogen Electricity SNG Heat Electricity PSA C02 removal SNG CO2 Biogas
  9. 9. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 3. Straw can be combusted in district heating and individual boilers for the production of heat, and used in combined heat and power plants for production of heat and electricity. Alternative pathways to enhance straw use 9 7 June 2016 Avedøre Power Station, planning full conversion from coal to biomass - woodchips and straw (Copenhagen, Denmark) Straw Boiler CHP Plant Electricity Heat Heat Waste Woodchips Coal Gas CO2 CO2 Boiler
  10. 10. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 4. Straw can undergo hydrolysis and fermentation for the production of bioalcohols, like bioethanol. Lignin is a co-product, which can be used for CHP production. Alternative pathways to enhance straw use 10 7 June 2016 Inbicon, bioethanol production from lignocellulosic biomass (Kalundborg, Denmark) Straw Pretreatment Hydrolysis Fermentation Bio Ethanol Lignin CHP Plant Heat Electricity
  11. 11. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 5. Laboratory/pilot biomass to liquid (BTL) technology in which straw undergoes thermal gasification and the output gas is used to synthetize bioalcohols and biodiesel. Ashes can be used as fertilizer and impact the carbon stock. Alternative pathways to enhance straw use 11 7 June 2016 Straw Gasification SNG Fischer-Tropsch synthesis Ashes Spreading on fields Fertilizers NPK CO2-C Bio Ethanol Bio Kerosene Bio Diesel Heat Electricity
  12. 12. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Modelling in TIMES-DK Main assumptions • Least-cost optimization of the energy system for the period 2015-2050 • Biomass resource potentials correspond to current availability (no imports assumed) • Fertilizers NPK are valued at current market price • CO2 target in all scenarios for 100% fossil-free system 2050 (industrial, residential and transport sector) • Additional target for transport sector - 10% renewable in 2020 Technology scenarios 1. AGR: all straw potential is used only in the agriculture sector 2. BGA: all straw potential is used only for biogas production 3. CHP: all straw potential is used only in the heat and power sector 4. ETOH: all straw potential is used only for bioethanol production 5. BTL: all straw potential is used only in BTL technology 6. OPT: optimal (least-cost) combination where all straw is used 12 7 June 2016
  13. 13. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Optimal scenario - Straw 13 7 June 2016 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Straw use - Optimal BTL Biokerosene BTL Bioethanol Bioethanol 2G Biogas AD CHP plant Boiler Left on field
  14. 14. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Optimal scenario - Transport sector 14 7 June 2016 0 50 100 150 200 250 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 PJ Transport - Consumption Natural Gas Liquid petrol gas Kerosene Heavy Fuel Oil Gasoline Electricity (Central) Diesel Bioethanol G2 Bioethanol G1 Biodiesel G2 Biodiesel G1 Bio Synt. Nat. Gas G2 Bio Synt. Nat. Gas G1 Bio Kerosene G2 Bio Kerosene G1
  15. 15. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Optimal scenario - Residential heating 15 7 June 2016 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 PJ Residential Heating - Consumption Wood Pellets RES Straw RES Solar RES Nat Gas RES Electricity for Heating RES Diesel RES Decentralised District Heat RES Centralised District Heat RES BioDiesel RES Bio Synt Nat Gas RES
  16. 16. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Scenario results - Cost 16 7 June 2016 0 577 3294 198 -120 -1928 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 AGR BGA CHP ETOH BTL OPT million € Differential system cost
  17. 17. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Scenario results - CO2 Emissions 17 7 June 2016 4750 4800 4850 4900 4950 5000 5050 5100 5150 5200 AGR BGA CHP ETOH BTL OPT kton CO2 Emissions (2050)
  18. 18. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Scenario results - Fertilizers 18 7 June 2016 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 AGR BGA BTL ETOH OPT AGR BGA BTL ETOH OPT AGR BGA BTL ETOH OPT AGR BGA BTL OPT AGR BGA BTL AGR BGA BTL OPT AGR BGA BTL OPT AGR BGA BTL OPT 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 kton Produced fertilizers K N P
  19. 19. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Scenario results - Fuel supply 19 7 June 2016 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 AGR BGA CHP ETOH BTL OPT PJ Fuel Supply (2050) Synthetic Natural Gas Petroleum Liquid Petrol Gas BioNaphta Biokerosene G2 Decentral Heat Central Heat Bioethanol G2 Bioethanol G1 Biodiesel G2 Biodiesel G1
  20. 20. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Discussion • The economic assessment on the optimal use of straw highlights that a combination of technologies (BTL and biogas) is the most cost efficient while using straw for heat and power is the least attractive solution. • However, the choice may have a minor impact on the rest of the energy system. • Uncertainty on cost and efficiencies of emerging technologies. • Potential variability in the availability of straw across and within years (weather, cultivations, crops rotations) • Wider environmental considerations with respect to the use of biomass may have an impact on the optimal solution. 20 7 June 2016
  21. 21. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Further work Pyroneer: small-scale gasifier (6 MW demonstration plant) 21 7 June 2016
  22. 22. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Further work Maabjerg Energy Concept: co-production of biogas, bioethanol, waste treatment, power and district heating. 22 7 June 2016
  23. 23. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Further work Introducing more environmental considerations in TIMES-DK: 23 7 June 2016 What is the impact on the sustainability and GHG emissions in the agriculture and transport sectors if biogenic emissions, use of land as well as soil and water pollution are taken into account?
  24. 24. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Thank you for your attention ! Suggestions and questions? 24 7 June 2016 Giada Venturini PhD Student System Analysis DTU Management Engineering give@dtu.dk

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