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DecisionWare Group LLC
Policy Analysis for
Energy, Economy and Environment
VEDA TIMES-Starter Proposal
Costa Rica NDC Path...
VEDA TIMES-Starter
•ANSWER TIMES-Starter platform a demonstrated
success at IEA for China & for World Bank support
to the ...
WB-CR PMR Project Objectives
Support the efforts of the Costa Rica
Partnership for Market Readiness (PMR)
{Un1der the ausp...
Major Project Activities
3
Activity 3. Simulate the
Baseline, Planned policy and
Enhanced policy scenarios
Activity 4. Ana...
TIMES-Starter Model Management
Platform
•Data is assembled
in “Smart” Excel
workbooks
•Managed by
ANSWER (or
VEDA-FE)
•Sub...
PMR Technical Workshop
Paving the Way for NDC Implementation:
Analyzing Policy Options and Modeling Carbon Pricing
6
• Und...
Analytics Multi-case Comparison
Graphing & Metrics Workbook
2012$M %Difference GW %Difference
Base - v11 109,937 Base - v1...
VedaViz Analyst – CO2 by Sector
based on Demand&EERE
Similar to the DECC Global Calculator, the VedaViz Policy Portal allo...
ETSAP Support for the PMR Effort
If PMR representative expresses (serious) interest in building up capacity to
use TIMES f...
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Enhancing the TIMES New User Experience - Second Step, a VEDA TIMES-Starter Model & Roadmap

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Enhancing the TIMES New User Experience - Second Step, a VEDA TIMES-Starter
Model & Roadmap

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Enhancing the TIMES New User Experience - Second Step, a VEDA TIMES-Starter Model & Roadmap

  1. 1. DecisionWare Group LLC Policy Analysis for Energy, Economy and Environment VEDA TIMES-Starter Proposal Costa Rica NDC Pathway Assessment using TIMES- Starter_CR & PMR Technical Workshop Presented by Gary Goldstein ETSAP 70th Semi-Annual Workshop CIEMAT, Madrid, Spain November 17-18, 2017
  2. 2. VEDA TIMES-Starter •ANSWER TIMES-Starter platform a demonstrated success at IEA for China & for World Bank support to the Costa Rica NDC pathway undertaking •VEDA TIMES-Starter will o Build on the approach & knowledge gained from the ANSWER TIMES-Starter o Use the USEPA US9r(T) model as a primary data source o Employ an item mapping & VLOOKUP approach to aligning Starter Energy Balance and technology characterization repositories to easily tap other (open) data sources (e.g., JRC EU/UCL UK/other models) o Augment the ANSWER TIMES-Starter Guidelines & training material 2 VEDA TIMES-Starter & Overview of the Costa Rica / PMR NDC Pathways Undertakings
  3. 3. WB-CR PMR Project Objectives Support the efforts of the Costa Rica Partnership for Market Readiness (PMR) {Un1der the auspices of the World Bank the PMR is a forum for collective innovation and action and a fund to support capacity building to scale up climate change mitigation - https://www.thepmr.org/} • Identify the policies and measures politically, technically, and economically feasible for Costa Rica • Develop a country-specific energy systems model with input parameters validated and the resulting Baseline scenario approved by local experts and key stakeholders • Develop a Planned policy scenario to assess existing and proposed mitigation policies and actions • Develop Enhanced policy scenarios for Costa Rica to achieve its NDC targets made up of plausible mitigation policies and actions • Build the local capacity so that experts can use the TIMES-CR model to advise policy on an ongoing basis 3 VEDA TIMES-Starter & Overview of the Costa Rica / PMR NDC Pathways Undertakings
  4. 4. Major Project Activities 3 Activity 3. Simulate the Baseline, Planned policy and Enhanced policy scenarios Activity 4. Analyze results and produce report and presentation Activity 2. Develop modeling framework, database and tools Activity 1. Develop detailed modeling work plan and country data Activity 5. Provide hands-on training and take part in consultations 3rd Mission: Enhanced Policies & NDC pathway, & in-depth TIMES-CR training 2nd Mission: Baseline & Planned Policy scenario review, & hands-on TIMES-CR training TIMES-Costa Rica Model 1st Mission: Data development & initial training Obtain Energy Balance, load curve & other relevant national data Transform the TIMES-Starter model Define policies & measures Resolve data issues & plug gaps Assess model results Refine model assumptions & behavior Proposed NDC pathway Refinements to NDC pathway Here in <2 months! PMR Technical Workshop VEDA TIMES-Starter & Overview of the Costa Rica / PMR NDC Pathways Undertakings
  5. 5. TIMES-Starter Model Management Platform •Data is assembled in “Smart” Excel workbooks •Managed by ANSWER (or VEDA-FE) •Submitted to TIMES (GAMS) •Post-processed by VEDA-BE •Analyzed via the Analytics graphing workbook 5 TIMES-Starter • Has a comprehensive set of existing & new technologies to draw on (USDOE) • Employs best modeling practices to depict the underlying energy system properly • Is easily customizable for particular national situations • Has a comprehensive model management tools that oversee all aspects of working with TIMES VEDA TIMES-Starter & Overview of the Costa Rica / PMR NDC Pathways Undertakings
  6. 6. PMR Technical Workshop Paving the Way for NDC Implementation: Analyzing Policy Options and Modeling Carbon Pricing 6 • Under the Paris Agreement countries commit to evaluating how their NDCs perform over time and to what extent and how the NDCs can be strengthened in order to help close the current global mitigation gap. • Against this backdrop, the Partnership for Market Readiness’ (PMR) Policy Analysis Work Program aims to support countries in refining the analytical underpinning of countries’ NDC target setting and implementation roadmaps, through building technical capacity, developing and sharing relevant analytical approaches and tools, and supporting the modeling and analysis of policy instruments recognizing the crucial role of carbon pricing in achieving effective implementation of NDCs. VEDA TIMES-Starter & Overview of the Costa Rica / PMR NDC Pathways Undertakings
  7. 7. Analytics Multi-case Comparison Graphing & Metrics Workbook 2012$M %Difference GW %Difference Base - v11 109,937 Base - v11 1.28 Renewable Electricity Share 109,874 -0.1% Renewable Electricity Share 1.21 94.7% Limit Electricity Consumption 111,223 1.2% Limit Electricity Consumption 0.96 75.1% Limit Electricity Generation 110,073 0.1% Limit Electricity Generation 1.07 83.9% PJ %Difference 2012$M %Difference Base - v11 5,245 Base - v11 3,190 Renewable Electricity Share 5,226 -0.4% Renewable Electricity Share 2,907 -8.9% Limit Electricity Consumption 5,322 1.5% Limit Electricity Consumption 2,472 -22.5% Limit Electricity Generation 5,163 -1.6% Limit Electricity Generation 2,817 -11.7% PJ %Difference 2012$M %Difference Base - v11 21 Base - v11 50,163 Renewable Electricity Share 21 0.0% Renewable Electricity Share 49,997 -0.3% Limit Electricity Consumption 21 0.0% Limit Electricity Consumption 52,462 4.6% Limit Electricity Generation 21 0.0% Limit Electricity Generation 50,098 -0.1% PJ %Difference kt %Difference Base - v11 2,489 Base - v11 293,340 Renewable Electricity Share 2,485 -0.2% Renewable Electricity Share 278,965 -4.9% Limit Electricity Consumption 2,673 7.4% Limit Electricity Consumption 288,736 -1.6% Limit Electricity Generation 2,484 -0.2% Limit Electricity Generation 284,537 -3.0% CO2 Emissions Scenario Fuel Expenditures Scenario Electrity Generation Scenario Final Energy Consumption Scenario Scenario Primary Energy Scenario Electricity Investment Scenario System Cost Scenario Power Plant Builds 7 Results tables are exported & dynamically updated from VBE to the Analytics workbook where presentation & report quality tables & graphs are prepared automatically VEDA TIMES-Starter & Overview of the Costa Rica / PMR NDC Pathways Undertakings
  8. 8. VedaViz Analyst – CO2 by Sector based on Demand&EERE Similar to the DECC Global Calculator, the VedaViz Policy Portal allows TIMES model results to be dynamically presented via the web – here: • Low GDP growth reduces CO2 emission by about 15% while High GDP growth increase it by over 30% • EE&RE Targets bring the High GDP growth emissions down near that of the Reference, while cutting about 1/3rd of the Medium GDP Growth level 7 VEDA TIMES-Starter & Overview of the Costa Rica / PMR NDC Pathways Undertakings
  9. 9. ETSAP Support for the PMR Effort If PMR representative expresses (serious) interest in building up capacity to use TIMES for preparation, updating & ratcheting up of NDC roadmaps how might ETSAP take advantage of the opportunity to more widely disseminate & promote the ETSAP Tools for this high-profile global initiative? o Section of website dedicated to use of ETSAP Tools for NDC pathway support o ETSAP Partners mentoring PMR experts • “Twinning” by hosting a PMR expert • How funded & how much funding (per PMR) would be needed? o TIMES-Starter platform • Employ the TIMES-Starter as a standard starting point for the national models • If PMR wants to get going early in 2017 approach Ken about using ANSWER TIMES- Starter (so support for only those users into 2018) or fast-track VEDA platform (based on USEPA US9r/AT-Starter, rather than waiting for US9rT)? • Fund the VEDA TIMES-Starter R&D proposal • Provide a migration path from ANSWER-TIMES model to VEDA (& retrain experts) o Reducing the cost of the ETSAP Tools for the PMR participants • GAMS TIMES Application/Runtime with CBC solver starting modeling package [countries can add CPLEX later once proven & embodied in their planning process, if necessary] • Tentative consideration being given by GAMS/Noblesoft/KanORS for creating a PMR project license 9 VEDA TIMES-Starter & Overview of the Costa Rica / PMR NDC Pathways Undertakings

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